This document summarizes a presentation given to the Toronto Condo Network about the GTA high-rise real estate market outlook. It provides data on high-rise vs low-rise sales from 2007-2016, new vs resale condo sales, pricing trends for new and resale units, the geographic distribution of high-rise sales within Toronto and the 905 region, trends in high-rise development sites and inventory levels, and forecasts for occupied high-rise units from 2000-2020. It also briefly discusses topics like upcoming transit infrastructure projects, urban park planning, wood-frame construction, neighborhood development, the Expo 2025 bid, and issues like family housing, water infrastructure, affordable housing and Greenbelt intensification.

1. May 27, 2016
Presentation to Toronto Condo Network
N. Barry Lyon Consultants Limited
GTA High-Rise
Market Outlook

2. 2015: Low-Rise Nearly Outpaces High-Rise
2
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
51%
54%
45%
56%
62%
56% 57%
55% 52%
47%
49%
46%
55%
44% 38% 44%
43%
45%
48%
53%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
#Sales
Year
Annual High-Rise and Low-Rise Sales
Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2016 YTD (Jan.-Apr.)
High-Rise Low-Rise

3. The Full Condominium Apartment Picture
3
Note: New sales are within currently marketing condominium apartment projects, resales are sales within existing condominium
apartment projects.
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
51%
44% 42%
49%
55%
47% 44%
50% 47%
42%
49%
56%
58%
51%
45%
53%
56%
50% 53%
58%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD
#Sales
Year
Annual New and Resale Condominium Apartment Sales
Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2016 YTD (Jan.-Apr.)
New Resale

4. New and Resale Pricing Gap Tightening
4
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Month
AverageSalePrice
#Sales
Monthly High-Rise New Sales and Resales and Average Pricing
Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2016 YTD (Jan.-Apr.)
New Sale Resale New Pricing Resale Price

5. High-Rise Sales Still Focused in Toronto
5
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Etobicoke North York Scarborough Toronto
#Sales
Year
416 High-Rise Sales, 2011 to 2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

6. Subways, East End and Stacks
6
Source: Site Marketing Materials

7. Universities, Stacks and New Markets in the 905
7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
#Sales
Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
905 High-Rise Sales, 2011-2015

8. Universities, Stacks and New Markets in the 905
8

9. Site Count and Inventory Moderating
9
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Month
#ofActiveHigh-RiseSite
UnsoldInventory(#ofUnits)
New High-Rise Unsold Inventory and Site Count
Greater Toronto Area: 2007 to 2016 YTD (Jan.-Apr.)
High-Rise Inventory High-Rise Site Count

10. Calm Before the Storm?
10
Source: RealNet Canada Inc. and NBLC
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
# Occupied Units
Year
Scheduled High-Rise Occupancies
Greater Toronto Area: 2000 to 2020
Occupied Forecasted

11. Transit Planning: Relief is in Sight!
11

12. Transit Planning: Relief is in Sight!
12

13. Parks in all Shapes, Sizes and….Heights!
13

14. 6-Storey Wood-Frame
14

15. Adding / Creating Neighbourhoods
15

16. Expo: To Bid or Not To Bid?
16

17. Moving Forward
17
• Family housing in Toronto
• Water Pressure
• Affordable Housing
• Leaping the Greenbelt
instead of intensification