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Housing market intelligence you can count on
Manitoba Economy 
Manitoba Housing Markets 
Winnipeg Demographics and Housing Markets 
Resale Market 
New Home Market...
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Manitoba Employment by AgeGains among 25 to 44 year olds, positive for first-time buyers 
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Manitoba Unemployment RateProjected to remain near 5.5 per cent 
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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Manitoba Forecast Summary 
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f) 
CANADA MORTGAGE ...
Housing market intelligence you can count on
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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Winnipeg MLS®SalesCondominium sales climbing, 14 per cent of total in 2013 
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Winnipeg CMA MLS®Average PricePrice gains to moderate 
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Housing market intelligence you can count on
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Winnipeg CMA Apartment Vacancy RateTo rise above three per cent by 2016 
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CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 
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Contact Information 
Dianne Himbeault 
Senior Market Analyst, CMHC 
dhimbeau@cmhc.ca 
(204) 318-1754 
CANADA MORTGAGE AND ...
Housing market intelligence you can count on
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 2014 Winnipeg and Manitoba Housing Market Outlook

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Housing market statistics affecting Winnipeg and Manitoba for consumers and professionals.

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 2014 Winnipeg and Manitoba Housing Market Outlook

  1. 1. Housing market intelligence you can count on
  2. 2. Manitoba Economy Manitoba Housing Markets Winnipeg Demographics and Housing Markets Resale Market New Home Market Single-detached Multi-family Rental Market CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  3. 3. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Manitoba Real GDP GrowthEconomy will continue to expand at a steady pace per cent change in real Gross Domestic Product Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  4. 4. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jan-Aug 2014 Manitoba Retail Sales GrowthSpending growth at over three per cent, contributing to economy Source: Statistics Canada per cent change in retail sales CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  5. 5. -$10 -$5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Au 2013 Ja-Au 2014 Exports Imports Net Exports Manitoba International TradeExports increasing, up 10 per cent to date in 2014 Source: Statistics Canada billions CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  6. 6. Manitoba Total Net MigrationMigration to remain elevated above 8,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f) net migration
  7. 7. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f per cent change, average employment Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f) Manitoba Employment GrowthEmployment gains to return in 2015 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  8. 8. Manitoba Employment by AgeGains among 25 to 44 year olds, positive for first-time buyers -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 15-24 25-44 45-64 Total Employment 2013 Jan-Sep 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION year-over-year % change Source: Statistics Canada
  9. 9. Manitoba Unemployment RateProjected to remain near 5.5 per cent 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Manitoba Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
  10. 10. -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CPI -Manitoba AWE -12 mo mov. avg. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada year-over-year % change Manitoba –AWE and InflationNominal wage growth above inflation
  11. 11. Five-year Mortgage RateWill remain low by historical standards 0 5 10 15 20 25 1951 1959 1967 1975 1983 1991 1999 2007 2015f 5-year Mortgage Rate Forecast Range Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast (f) 4 5 6 7 2014f 2015f 2016f per cent CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  12. 12. Housing market intelligence you can count on
  13. 13. 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 13,000 15,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Other Centres Winnipeg Manitoba MLS®Total SalesProvincial sales to rise moderately Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f) units CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  14. 14. Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f) average price (thousands) Manitoba Residential MLS®PricePrice growth expected to moderate CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 5.3% 2.2% 2.3% 5.2% 2.3%
  15. 15. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Rest of Province Winnipeg CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) units Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsStarts to increase in 2015, remain stable
  16. 16. Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change Winnipeg 1,693 1,434 -15% Brandon 101 84 -17% Steinbach 61 49 -20% Portage la Prairie 5 7 40% Thompson 2 2 - Winkler 81 47 -42% Hanover 102 88 -13% St. Andrews R.M. 31 24 -22% All Urban Centres 2,076 1,735 -16% Rural Areas 767 688 -10% Total 2,843 2,423 -15% Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsGreater decrease in urban areas
  17. 17. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Rest of Province Winnipeg CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsTo moderate but remain elevated Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) units
  18. 18. Q1-Q3 2013 Q1-Q3 2014 % Change Winnipeg 1,930 1,961 2% Brandon 172 134 -22% Steinbach 170 97 -43% Portage la Prairie - 20 ** Thompson - - ** Winkler 91 112 23 Hanover 28 12 -57% St. Andrews R.M. - - ** All Urban Centres 2,391 2,336 -2% Rural Areas 402 194 -52% Total 2,793 2,530 -9% Source: CMHC Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsGreater decrease in rural areas CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  19. 19. Manitoba Forecast Summary Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f) CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Economy GDP Growth 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.3 Employment Growth 0.6 -0.1 1.1 1.0 Net Migration 9,217 9,200 9,100 9,300 New Home Market Single-detached Starts (Range) 3,820 3,300 (3,400-3,200) 3,500 (3,800-3,200) 3,500 (3,900-3,100) Multi-family Starts (Range) 3,645 3,400 (3,400-3,400) 3,000 (3,200-2,800) 2,800 (3,100-2,500) Resale Market* Total Sales (Range) 13,735 13,900 (14,100-13,600) 14,100 (14,800-13,400) 14,200 (15,100-13,300) Average Price (Range) $260,849 $266,500 ($266,900-$264,400) $272,600 ($277,380-$268,000) $278,800 ($283,600-$272,100)
  20. 20. Housing market intelligence you can count on
  21. 21. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 year-over-year per cent change WinnipegCMA Population GrowthRate of growth at levels not seen in over 25 years
  22. 22. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Halifax Montréal St. John's Ottawa-Gatineau Vancouver Toronto All metropolitan areas Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Saskatoon Calgary 2012-2013 per cent change SelectCMAs Population Growth Winnipeg on par with national metropolitan average
  23. 23. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Renter 1stTime Buyer Move-up Buyer Seniors’ Housing Live with parents Adult Lifestyle Source: Statistics Canada persons -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Population Growth Rate (2009-2013) Winnipeg Age Profile 2013 Higher population growth supports multi-family markets
  24. 24. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Renter 1stTime Buyer Move-up Buyer Seniors’ Housing Live with parents Adult Lifestyle Source: Statistics Canada persons growth rate -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Population Growth Rate (2009-2013) Winnipeg Age Profile 2013 Higher population growth supports multi-family markets
  25. 25. Housing market intelligence you can count on
  26. 26. 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f) Winnipeg CMA MLS®Total SalesSales to rise moderately through 2016 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION residential unit sales
  27. 27. Winnipeg MLS®SalesCondominium sales climbing, 14 per cent of total in 2013 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Residential Condominium Source: Winnipeg Realtors®website CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION residential unit sales condominium unit sales
  28. 28. Winnipeg CMA MLS®SalesPace of sales rebounded in recent months 800 850 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units (trended) Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC
  29. 29. Winnipeg CMA MLS®New ListingsMore homes being put up for sale, increased 14 per cent yr/yr 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units (trended) Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC
  30. 30. 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Winnipeg Canada MLS® Sales-to-New Listings RatioDecreasing, within balanced conditions seasonally adjusted CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: CREA, seasonally adjusted
  31. 31. Winnipeg CMA MLS®Average PricePrice gains to moderate $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION thousands Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f) 5.2% 2.8% 2.5% 5.7% 2.5%
  32. 32. Housing market intelligence you can count on
  33. 33. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Multi-family Single-detached Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Winnipeg CMATotal HousingStarts Total starts reached a 26-year high in 2013 units
  34. 34. Total Housing Starts Per CapitaWinnipeg starts per capita climbing 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Winnipeg All Metropolitan Areas CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC starts per 1,000 population
  35. 35. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) Winnipeg CMA Single-detached StartsTo come down from 2013 but remain elevated CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units
  36. 36. Winnipeg CMA Single-detachedAbsorptions beginning to outpace completions 100 125 150 175 200 225 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Absorptions Completions CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units (12 month moving average) Source: CMHC
  37. 37. Winnipeg CMA Single-detached InventoryDecreasing and in line with five-year average 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Complete and Unabsorbed Spec Homes Show Homes CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units Source: CMHC
  38. 38. $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f average absorbed price (000s) Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) Winnipeg CMA New Single-detached PriceAbsorbed average price to increase steadily CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 1.9% 4.5% 2.8% 3.7% 2.7%
  39. 39. Winnipeg CMA Absorptions by PriceCategory of greatest market share shifted upwards 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% <$300K $300K-$400K $400K-$500K $500K-$600K >$600K Jan-Sep 2013 Jan-Sep 2014 absorptions by price range (single-detached units) Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  40. 40. Winnipeg CMA New House Price IndexRate of growth has slowed 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total House only Land only Source: Statistics Canada 2007 = 1.0 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  41. 41. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) WinnipegCMA Multi-family Starts Willremain elevated, but moderate over next two years CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units
  42. 42. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Semi Row Apt. Jan-Sep 2013 Jan-Sep 2014 Source: CMHC Winnipeg CMAMultiStarts by TypeRow housing seeing increased activity units
  43. 43. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ja-Se 2013 Ja-Se 2014 Ownership Rental Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION WinnipegCMA MultiStarts by Tenure Units for ownership seeing greater market share units
  44. 44. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Absorptions Completions units (12 month moving average) Source: CMHC WinnipegCMA Multi-familyAbsorptions Completions outpacing absorptions since 2012 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  45. 45. Source: CMHC 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rental Ownership Five-year Average Winnipeg CMAMulti-family Inventory Complete and unabsorbed units rising CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units
  46. 46. Source: CMHC 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Rental Ownership Five-year Average Winnipeg CMAMultisUnder Construction Units under construction at a 35-yr high CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION units
  47. 47. Winnipeg CMA Apartment Vacancy RateTo rise above three per cent by 2016 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION October surveys Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
  48. 48. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f two-bedroom average rent (October) Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) WinnipegAverage Apartment RentSteady increases to continue
  49. 49. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 average two-bedroom apartment rent average MLS® home carrying cost * assumption: 5% down payment, average 5-year fixed mortgage rates, amortized 25 years Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, CMHC calculations monthly carrying cost*, rent WinnipegCost ofOwning vs. RentingCosts 60 per cent more to buy a home than rent
  50. 50. 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f New Home Market Single-detached Starts 2,218 1,975 2,000 2,025 Multi-family Starts 2,487 2,550 2,500 2,400 New House Pr. Ind. (% chg.) 4.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 Resale Market Total Sales 12,088 12,200 12,300 12,400 Average Price $ 268,382 $ 276,000 $ 283,000 $ 290,000 Rental Market Vacancy Rate (%) 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.2 2-bedroom Rent $ 969 $ 1010 $ 1,040 $ 1,070 Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f) Winnipeg CMA Forecast Summary CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  51. 51. Contact Information Dianne Himbeault Senior Market Analyst, CMHC dhimbeau@cmhc.ca (204) 318-1754 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
  52. 52. Housing market intelligence you can count on

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