The document provides an overview of retail trends in the UK and Wales based on data from The Local Data Company (LDC). Key findings include: - Retail sales in the UK declined from 2010-2015 for overall, lifestyle, fashion and homeware categories. Non-store retail sales increased over the same period. - Store closures in the UK increased from 2007-2015 while online shopping behaviors among consumers grew. - Convenience stores in the UK experienced growth since 2012. - Analysis of vacancy rates, closures, independent retailers and other metrics for Welsh towns found relationships between these factors and levels of deprivation, car ownership, employment and other socioeconomic indicators.

1. 1
Matthew Hopkinson, LDC
1st Welsh Retail Summit
Hosted by
#LDCInsights
Professor Ian Rees Jones, University of Cardiff
Dr Scott Orford, University of Cardiff

2. 2
1st Welsh Retail Summit
The Local Data Company
27th January 2016
A report by LDC and the Wales Institute of Economic
and Social Research Data and Methods (WISERD)
Tweet with us: #LDCInsights

3. 3
FAILURES CLOSURES OPENINGS
Change Afoot!
#LDCInsights

4. 4
Retail sales – 2010-2015
#LDCInsightsSource: BDO High Street Tracker
-5
-10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall Lifestyle Fashion Homeware
15
10
5
0

5. 5
Retail sales – non-store 2010-2015
#LDCInsightsSource: BDO High Street Tracker
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

6. 6
UK Consumer Confidence 2010-2015
#LDCInsightsSource: HM Treasury
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

7. 7#LDCInsights

8. 8
Methodology
• 7,000+ locations
• Field visited
• 60,000 visits a month

9. 9
What do we do?
Gap Analysis
Impartial
Evidence
based research
Portfolio Analysis
Openings & Closures
Persistent vacancy
Retail Parks
Shopping Centres
Health Scores
Diversity Indices
Footfall
Catchment Profiles
Analytics
Nationwide
Vacancy rates
Insight
Knowledge
#LDCInsights

10. 10
7,000
LOCATIONS TRACKED
NATIONWIDE
COVERAGE
554,096
BUSINESSES TRACKED
850
TOWNS
1,124
RETAIL PARKS
897
SHOPPING CENTRES
#LDCInsights

11. 11
7,000
LOCATIONS TRACKED
WELSH
COVERAGE
34,022
BUSINESSES TRACKED
169
TOWNS
77
RETAIL PARKS
30
SHOPPING CENTRES
#LDCInsights

12. 12

13. 13
GB OVERVIEW
Presented by Matthew Hopkinson
#LDCInsights

14. 14
GB and national vacancy rates by location type
#LDCInsights

15. 15
Store Closures 2007-2015
#LDCInsightsSource: Centre for Retail Research

16. 16
Shopper Behaviour
#LDCInsightsSource: ONS

17. 17
GB Openings & Closures H1 2015
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

18. 18
GB Openings & Closures by classification
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

19. 19
GB Openings & Closures by business type
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

20. 20
Net change by outlet
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

21. 21
Convenience stores growth since 2012
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

22. 22
Top 10 Categories By Churn Across GB
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

23. 23
Fastest risers H1 2015
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

24. 24
Fastest risers H1 2015 GB
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

25. 25
Fastest fallers H1 2015
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

26. 26
Fastest fallers H1 2015 GB
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

27. 27
Openings & Closures by region/nation
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

28. 28
% Net change by region/nation
#LDCInsightsSource: Local Data Company

29. 29
Unemployment rate (%)
5.1
6.6
8.8 8.9
9.3
8.2
7.6 7.4
6.1
5.4
6.2
8.1
8.0 8.5 8.1
7.6
6.1
5.2
4.6
5.1
6.9
8.7
8.8
7.8
7.5
5.8
5.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Aug-Oct
2007
Aug-Oct
2008
Aug-Oct
2009
Aug-Oct
2010
Aug-Oct
2011
Aug-Oct
2012
Aug-Oct
2013
Aug-Oct
2014
Aug-Oct
2015
Unemploymentrate(%)
Wales
England
Scotland
#LDCInsights

30. 30#LDCInsights

31. 31
Income levels
£19,400
£19,600
£19,700
£19,700
£19,900
£19,900
£20,300
£21,900
£23,100
£24,600
£0 £5,000 £10,000 £15,000 £20,000 £25,000 £30,000
Wales
Yorkshire and the Humber
North West
North East
West Midlands
East Midlands
South West
East of England
South East
London
Median Income
#LDCInsights

32. 32
House prices to median income
12.2
9.9
9.2
8.8
7.3
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
London
South East
South West
East of England
West Midlands
East Midlands
Wales
Yorkshire and the Humber
North West
North East
Ra o of House prices to Median income

33. 33
RETAILING IN WELSH TOWNS AND CITIES
Presented by Dr. Scott Orford
#LDCInsights

34. 34
Welsh cities- percentage change in retail stock in the last 12
months
#LDCInsights#LDCInsights

35. 35
Top 5 Welsh towns by retail vacancy rates (vacant retail unit
divided total retail units) in 2015
#LDCInsights

36. 36
Bottom 5 Welsh towns by retail vacancy rates (vacant retail unit
divided total retail units) in 2015
#LDCInsights

37. 37
Welsh cities retail vacancy rates (vacant retail unit divided total
retail units) in 2015
#LDCInsights

38. 38
Worst performing Welsh towns by the change in vacancy rates
in the last three years (2012-2015)
#LDCInsights

39. 39
Best performing Welsh towns by the change in vacancy rates in
the last three years (2012-2015)
#LDCInsights

40. 40
Top 5 Welsh towns by persistent vacancy (% total units vacant
for over 3 years) in 2015
#LDCInsights

41. 41
Bottom 5 Welsh towns by persistent vacancy (% total units
vacant for over 3 years) in 2015
#LDCInsights

42. 42
Welsh cities persistent vacancy (% total units vacant for over 3
years) in 2015
#LDCInsights

43. 43
Top 5 Welsh towns by percentage of charity shops (% total
units occupied by a charity shop) in 2015
#LDCInsights

44. 44
Bottom 5 Welsh towns by percentage of charity shops (% total
units occupied by a charity shop) in 2015
#LDCInsights

45. 45
Welsh cities by percentage of charity shops (% total units
occupied by a charity shop) in 2015
#LDCInsights

46. 46
Top 10 Welsh towns according to their BMG Index 2015 (BMG
as a percentage of total premises)
BMG= Booze, Money and Gambling
#LDCInsights

47. 47
Bottom 10 Welsh towns according to their BMG Index 2015
(BMG as a percentage of total premises)
BMG= Booze, Money and Gambling
#LDCInsights

48. 48
Bottom 5 Welsh towns according to their BMG Index 2015
(BMG as a percentage of total premises)
BMG= Booze, Money and Gambling
#LDCInsights

49. 49
Retail vacancy rates by regions
#LDCInsights

50. 50
Relationship between deprivation and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

51. 51
Relationship between deprivation and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

52. 52
Relationship between percentage of households with no access
to a car and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

53. 53
Relationship between percentage of households who own their
own home and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

54. 54
Relationship between percentage of unemployed population
and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

55. 55
Relationship between percentage of population in higher
managerial occupation and retail vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

56. 56
Relationship between percentage of semi-routine and routine
occupations vacancy in 2015
#LDCInsights

57. 57
Change in retail vacancy between 2012 and 2015 by regions in
Wales
#LDCInsights

58. 58
Settlement typology and retail vacancy 2015- any patterns?
#LDCInsights

59. 59
Settlement typology and percentage of Independent retailers
2015
#LDCInsights

60. 60
Matthew Hopkinson, LDC
1st Welsh Retail Summit
Hosted by
#LDCInsights
Professor Ian Rees Jones, University of Cardiff
Dr Scott Orford, University of Cardiff