2. RECORD YEAR FOR GTA HOUSING SALES
101,299
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale Transactions
GTA: 2005 to 2015
Source: TREB
3. CONDOS LEAD CITY OF TORONTO SALES
17,467
12,065
4,894
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale Transactions by Type
City of Toronto: 2005 to 2015
Condo Apt
Detached
Semi/Row
Source: TREB
12% y/y
2% y/y
2% y/y
4. CONDOS BECOME EVEN MORE AFFORDABLE
$1,046,540
$731,097
$405,486
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Resale Transactions by Type
City of Toronto: 2005 to 2015
Detached
Semi/Row
Condo Apt
Source: TREB
5. CONDO PRICES GROWING BY < HALF MARKET RATE
12.5%
10.4%
5.1%
7.6% 7.4%
5.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Detached Semi/Row Condo Apt
Annual Price Growth by Type
City of Toronto: 2015 and 10-Year Avg.
2015 10-yr. avg.
Source: TREB
6. QUICKLY GROWING HIGH END MARKET
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Annual Sales Growth by Price Range
Greater Toronto Area: 2015
All Homes
Condo Apts
Source: TREB
7. CONDOS ARE 45% OF < $500K MARKET
71%
47%
22%
12%
7% 5% 4% 3% 4% 3% 4% 4% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Condo Apartment Share of Sales by Type
Greater Toronto Area: 2015
Source: TREB
8. FIRST-TIMERS & DOWNSIZERS GROWING FASTEST
- MOVE-UP BUYING TO ACCELERATE
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Average Annual Growth in Population by Age Band
City of Toronto
2014
2015-2019
Source: Statistics Canada compiled by Urbanation Inc., Ontario Ministry of Finance f orecasts
9. 3%
30%
24%
18%
12%
12%
Distribution of Condo Apartment Households by Age
Movers in Past 5 Years, Toronto CMA: 2011
Under 25
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 and over
Source: Statistics Canada compiled by Urnaation Inc.
CONDO DEMAND IS DIVERSE
33% Under 35
42% 35-54
24% 55+
10. IMMIGRATION TO TORONTO SLOWING
40,363
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annual Immigration Levels
City of Toronto: 2004 to 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
11. IMMIGRANT HOUSEHOLDS ARE YOUNG
- STRONG SOURCE OF RENTAL DEMAND
19%
15%
31%
19%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Under 15 15-24 25-34 35-44 45+
Immigration by Age Group
City of Toronto: 2010 to 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
14. JOB GROWTH ACROSS VARIOUS INDUSTRIES
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Education
Construction
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate
Trade
Professional Services
Top 5 Industries for Employment Growth
Toronto CMA: 2015
Source: Statistics Canada
15. CONDO SUPPLY PIPELINE LEVELING OUT AT 20K / YR
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Apartment Sales, Starts & Completions
Greater Toronto Area: 2009 to 2015, 12-mths ending in Q3 periods
Source: Urbanation Inc., CMHC
New Condo Sales Condo Starts
Condo Completions
Rental Starts
Rental Completions
16. CURRENT CONSTRUCTION CYCLE UNWINDING
59,094
49,997
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
New Condo Apartment Units Under Construction
GTA: 2005-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Q3-13:
17. FEWER LAUNCHES TO LIMIT NEW CONSTRUCTION
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartment Launches
GTA: 2005 to 2015
10-year avg.
Source: Urbanation Inc.
18. …BUT LAND ACQUISITIONS TRENDING UP
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
Apartment Site Sales by Quarter
Greater TorontoArea
Source: Teranet, Marsh Report
Trendline
19. 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Historical Annual CondoCompletions and Scheduled Occupancies
GTA: 2005 to 2018
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Scheduled Occupancies
SUPPLY GROWTH SET TO PEAK IN 2017
2005-2013 average = 13K
2014-2018 average = 23K
20. STATS ABOUT THE 25K UNITS COMPLETING IN 2016
Represents 8% growth in the condo stock
Avg. Pre-sale Price = $495 psf
Avg. Resale Price for units completed past 2 years = $575 psf
Avg. Holding Cost with 25% down = $2.60 psf*
Avg. Rent for units completed past 2 years = $2.60 psf
87% Pre-sold = 3,141 Unsold Units = 13.7 months of supply
*based on a 725 sf unit, 3% interest rate, 25-year amortization, and includes property taxes and maintenance fees
21. NEW SUPPLY FOCUSED ON CITY OF TORONTO
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
Toronto Peel & Halton York Region
Condo Apartment Completions by Year and Region
GTA: 2015 to 2017
2015 2016 2017
Source: Urbanation Inc.
22. BIG JUMP IN COMPLETIONS EXPECTED IN THE CORE
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
Former Toronto Etobicoke North York Scarborough
Condo Apartment Completions by Year and Former Municipality
City Of Toronto: 2015 to 2017
2015 2016 2017
Source: Urbanation Inc.
23. DOWNTOWN EAST LEADS DEVELOPMENT
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
New Condos in Pre-Construction and Under Construction
Former City of Toronto Submarkets: Q3-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
24. NEW CONDOS % SOLD AT RECORD HIGH
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartments in Development
GTA: 2005 to 2015
Units in Development
% Sold
Source: Urbanation Inc.
25. INVESTORS HOLDING AT COMPLETION
34%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Project MLS Annual Turnover: Resale vs. Rental
GTA: 2011 to Sep-2015
New Project Rental Turnover
New Project Resale Turnover
Source: Urbanation, TREB
26. CONDO LEASES EXCEEDING RESALES
- END-USER ACTIVITY AT RECORD HIGH
27,000
21,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Volume of Condo Apartment Leases
Greater Toronto Area: 2011 to 2015
Units Leased
Units Resold
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
27. CONDO RENTAL SUPPLY GROWTH MODERATING
1.8%
12,686
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Growth in Condo Rental Supply and Average Vacancy Rates
Greater Toronto Area: 2010 to 2015
Net Change in Condo Rental Stock
Vacancy Rate (%)
Source: CMHC
28. CONDO RENTS FLAT IN THE CORE
$2.80
$2.40
$2.03
$1.60
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
2011 - Q4 2012 - Q4 2013 - Q4 2014 - Q4 2015 - Q4
Average Condo Apartment Rents PSF by Region
Greater Toronto Area: Q4 Periods from 2011 to 2015
Former City of Toronto
Outer 416
905
Source: TREB, Urbanation Inc.
1% y/y
6% y/y
5% y/y
Newer Projects in
Downtown Core
$3.05 PSF
29. MOVING INTO A SELLERS MARKET FOR RESALE
7.3%
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Sales-to-Listings Ratio (SLR) and Annual Growth in Resale Prices (psf)
GTA: Q4-2011 to Q3-2015
Annual Price Growth
Sales/Listings (right)
Source: Urbanation Inc., Toronto Real Estate Board
Balanced
Sellers Market
30. NEW CONDO PRICE GROWTH STABLE
3%
$576
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Condo Apartment Average Sold Price PSF
Greater Toronto Area: 2005 to 2015
Annual Growth
Avg. Sold Price PSF
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Downtown Core
$715 PSF
31. VARYING RESULTS FOR NEW LAUNCHES
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Under 30% 30-49% 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90%+
New Condo Launches by Absorption Rate
GTA: 12 months to Q3-2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
33. CONDO DEVELOPMENT DIVERSIFYING
11%
19%
35% 35%
24%
22%
27% 27%
Under 15 storeys 15-24 storeys 25-39 storeys 40+ storeys
Total Units in Active Development by Building Size
Greater Toronto Area
2005 2015
Source: Urbanation Inc.
34. MORE BALANCE BY TYPE
BUT UNITS STILL SHRINKING
28% 30% 28% 34%
26% 28%
35% 35% 37%
32%
31%
33%
23% 21% 21% 21%
27%
27%
14% 13% 14% 12% 15% 11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 2015
New Condo Launch Suite Mix
2B+Den & 3B 2B 1B+Den Studio & 1B
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Avg. Size =
669 sf
35. we’ve got the answers
Ernestina Birova
Broker
Re/max Ultimate Real Estate Brokerage
T. 416-454-1342