This document provides information on key terms and concepts related to climate change including weather, climate, global warming, and climate change. It also discusses the causes and effects of climate change. The main international agreements aimed at addressing climate change that are summarized are the Montreal Protocol, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord, and Paris Agreement. The document also discusses the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under Trump and implications. Plantation efforts like in Pakistan are also mentioned as part of addressing climate change.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE

2. Basic Definitions
• Weather: refers to atmospheric conditions that occur locally over short periods of
time—from minutes to hours or days.
• Climate: refers to the long-term regional or even global average of temperature,
humidity and rainfall patterns over seasons, years or decades.
• Global Warming: refers to the long-term heating of Earth’s climate system
observed since the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
• Climate Change: Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather
patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates.

3. GlobalWarming vs. Climate Change
GlobalWarming
• Measured as the average increase in Earth’s global surface temperature;
• Increase in last 100 years: 1 degree Celsius;
• Increase per decade now: 0.2 degrees Celsius;
• Primary Cause: Human activity and industrialization;
• World-wide/Global phenomenon.
Climate Change
• Climate data records provide evidence of climate change key indicators, such as global land
and ocean temperature increases, shift in wind patterns, the average temperature or the
amount of precipitation;
• Primary Cause: Human activity (industrialization) and natural processes (volcanic activity);
• Global warming CAUSES climate change according to Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC);
• According to the Royal Society Policy Centre, changes in climate are caused by variations in
the total amount of energy that is kept within the Earth’s atmosphere;
• Global, regional or even local phenomenon.

4. Causes and Effects
Causes
1. Volcanic eruptions
2. Variations in Earth’s orbit
3. Increase in CO2 and Greenhouse gas emissions by humans
4. Deforestation
5. Burning of fossil fuels
Effects
1. Extreme weather events like heatwaves, tropical cyclones, floods, etc.
2. Increasing number of forest fires
3. Melting of glaciers
4. Increase of acidity in the ocean
5. Damage to Ozone layer

5. INTERNATIONAL
ACTION

6. Montreal Protocol (1987)
• Montreal Protocol: an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out nearly 100
chemical substances that are responsible for ozone depletion.
• Main target chemicals are CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs (after Kigali Amendment).
• It was adopted in 1987 and it is the only UN treaty that has been ratified by all 193 member states.
• Why?These chemicals damage the stratospheric ozone layer, Earth’s protective shield that protects
humans and the environment from harmful levels of ultraviolet radiation from the sun.
• Developing and developed countries have equal but differentiated responsibilities.
• “Multilateral Fund” was established to help the developing countries implement Montreal Protocol.
• Features:
• It is binding;
• time-targeted;
• It has measurable commitments.
• Achievement: With the full and sustained implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone
layer is projected to recover by the middle of this century. Without this treaty, ozone depletion
would have increased tenfold by 2050

7. Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• Kyoto Protocol: an international agreement that aimed to manage and reduce carbon dioxide emissions and
greenhouse gases.
• The Protocol was adopted at a conference in Kyoto, Japan, in 1997 and became international law on February 16, 2005.
• 192 countries committed to reducing their carbon emissions by ~5% till 2012.
• Basic concept
• Kyoto Protocol is biased against developed world because they did industrial activity for past 150 years without check;
• Give every country a limit to carbon emissions for a period of time;
• If they fail to limit themselves, give them an even smaller limit for the next period;
• Developed countries had to mandatory cut emissions;
• The developing countries were asked to voluntarily comply.The developing countries had carbon credits which they could sell
to developed countries if they wanted.
• Problems?
• Many countries especially in EU tried to meet targets but their progress was mitigated by US and China emissions;
• Global emissions actually increased by 40% rather than decreasing due to non-binding agreement on developing world;
• The US dropped out of the agreement in 2001, calling the treaty unfair because it mandated only developed countries to
reduce emissions, and felt that doing so would hinder the US economy;
• Canada left the Protocol as it said the largest emitters (US and China) aren’t even a part of the treaty.
• In 2015, all participants signed another pact, the Paris Climate Agreement, which effectively replaced the Kyoto Protocol.

8. COP 15 – CopenhagenAccord (2009)
• World leaders struck a new political accord to address climate change at the 2009 U.N. Climate
Summit in Copenhagen, Denmark.
• The accord provided for explicit emission pledges by all major economies – including, for the
first time, China and other major developing countries – but charted no clear path toward a
treaty with binding commitments
• Goals:
• Limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius;
• A process for countries to enter their specific mitigation pledges;
• Reporting and verification of countries’ actions;
• Establishment of a new Green Climate Fund.
• Problems?
• US-China divide. China did not want international scrutiny;
• Developing countries did not want to be a part of it e.g. Somalia compared it to Holocaust;
• TheAccord itself is not legally binding;
• TheAccord sets no real targets to achieve in emissions reductions;
• TheAccord was drafted by only five countries.

9. COP 21 - Paris Agreement (2015)
• At the Paris Climate Conference in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever
universal, legally binding global climate deal.
• The goal was to limit global warming to well below 2 degree Celsius.
• Governments agreed to:
• Keeping global average temperature to well below 2 degree Celsius above pre-industrial
levels;
• Limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius;
• Recognizing stopping global emissions would be harder in developing countries;
• Undertake rapid reductions with the best available science;
• Meet every 5 years to set even more ambitious goals;
• Strengthen societies ability to deal with the impacts of climate change;
• Provide continued and enhanced international support for adaptation to developing
countries.

10. US DISGRACEFUL EXIT
FROMTHE PARIS
ACCORD

11. Introduction
• President DonaldTrump stunned the world on 1st June by withdrawing US from
the Paris climate accord, a landmark global agreement to lower greenhouse gas
emissions and minimize harm from climate change.
• He justified his decision by saying that the Paris agreement was a bad deal for the
US, buttressing his argument with cornucopia of dystopian, dishonest and
discredited data.These numbers were from industry friendly sources.
• COP 21 was the first ever serious effort on a global level to ensure carbon cuts.The
agreement was signed and ratified by 190 countries including world leaders like
US and China.

12. Trump Hurts theWorld
• Trump’s decision will have consequences globally.
• US contributes to about 15% of global emissions of carbon but it is also a
significant source of finance and technology for developing countries in their
efforts to fight rising temperatures.
• There is also the question of moral leadership, which the US will be giving up,
which may have consequences for other diplomatic efforts.
• Michael Burne, a US environmentalist, said that, “the withdrawal was a historic
mistake which our grandchildren will look back on with stunned dismay at how a
world leader could be so divorced from reality and morality.”

13. Implications
• Developing world
• No technological or financial help from US
• No shifting from fossil fuel energy to green energy
• Moral loss
• US
• CorporateAmerica loses trust inTrump e.g. Exxon Mobil andApple
• Hostility with allies and rivals
• Farmers affected
• US emissions will still fall

14. Conclusion
• China reaffirms its commitment to the Paris accords
• US still cutting emissions indirectly through businesses
• Coal is unlikely to make a comeback; solar is preferred in US..
• Strong realization globally, state-wise and individually that carbon emissions are a
threat and they need to be dealt with.

15. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENTS

16. Historical Context
• Divide between the major emitters from the developed and the developing world
regarding Carbon cuts continued till COP21 or Paris Climate Agreement;
• In COP21, there was an agreement between the two blocs;
• However in 2017,Trump pulled US out of the agreement.
• The major COPs in the first 20 COPs (Conference of Parties) were Kyoto, Montreal,
Copenhagen, etc. However, the divide remained between the developing and the
developed world.

17. Developed vs. Developing
• Stance of the DevelopedWorld
• Climate change is a global threat;
• Both developed and developing world are polluting the global environment;
• The biggest emitter  CHINA;
• Fourth largest  INDIA.
• Therefore, global responsibility to reduce carbon emissions.
• Stance of the Developing World
• The developed world enjoyed development for more than a century whether it be US, EU or Canada.
• The developed world have also been a major emitter of carbon gases for more than a century.
• On the other hand, the development of the developing world has just begun.
• Developing countries do not have cheap alternative energy sources while developed world can easily
shift on to green energy.
• Therefore, developed world must make carbon cuts first and give enough time to developing
countries to shift on to green energy.

18. • This divide existed until COP21 i.e. Paris Climate Agreement 2015.
• In COP21, both developed and developing world agreed on carbon cuts.
• Developed world was led by US and Europe (France, Germany, UK).
• Developing world was led by China and India.
• 23 different multinational companies agreed on carbon cuts as well. In the
previous COPs, MNCs did not even participate completely. In the ones they did,
they didn’t give a carbon cutoff plan.
• The important part  carbon cuts were binding!

19. Why US decided to agree on COP21?
1. Obama declared climate change as the largest threat to national security; even
more so than terrorism.
2. Furthermore, he increasingly advocated for carbon-free energy e.g. subsidy to
Tesla.
3. 8 years rule produced more jobs than the hydrocarbon sector.
4. Obama led the world in the efforts against climate change.
5. He managed to convince China, India, Japan, South Africa, etc. to agree on
carbon cuts.
6. In the past 20 years, international community failed again and again as US did
not lead.

20. Why China decided to agree on COP21?
• Under Xi Jingpin, China is becoming increasingly global.
• At the same time, China is adopting a global responsible role as well.
• Also faced internal pressure like smog, breathing issues in major cities. Same case
for India.

21. Plantation
• Plantation was one of the major objectives;
• Protect the existing forests
• Amazon
• Africa
• Australia
• Mexico
• On the platform of Copenhagen, it was decided that two new forests would be established in
Brazil and Indonesia.Who is responsible for funding? UNFCC and major emitters.
• Bonn challenge in COP 2019 given to every country to plant trees
• Pakistan did the most in this challenge.Target of 2030 has been met by Pakistan already and it is now
focusing on 10 billion trees project.
• China met the challenge too.
• Canada too.
• Partially India too.

22. Binding COP
• Targets
• 2023
• 2030
• Carbon cuts

23. Trump’s Pullout, reasons?
1. China and other countries are not meeting the demands of carbon cuts then
why should US?
2. Carbon cuts result into slowing down the US economic growth
3. Climate change is a myth. Rise in temperature is a natural cycle; it has nothing
to do with industrial carbon emissions.
4. The influence of carbon industry onTrump especially coal and oil industry –
major financer of Republicans. Bush was influence too.

24. Implications of US Exit
1. US second largest emitter in the world; back to emitting. If it does not comply with carbon
cuts, then carbon emissions would continue on a large scale.
2. US is the global leader. In the past, every effort failed regarding carbon cuts primarily
because US did not lead the world from the front.
3. Other than US, all major emitters reindorsed their COP21 commitments to reduce carbon
gases.
4. Europe signed new green deal in 2019. By 2050, EU would be free from carbon.
5. China has become virtual leader in the efforts against climate change. How? By providing
soft loans to every country that is shifting on green energy  PILOT PROJECT IN PAKISTAN
(hyro, solar, etc.)
6. 12 different states of US refused to followTrump.They renewed their commitments to
COP21.
7. Biden fighting on climate change platform. Biden announced day 1 re entry in COP21 and to
reserve trump’s decision. If this happens, countries would get optimistic again.

25. Pakistan’s Perspective
1. Plantation of trees
1. 1 billion tree tsunami project
2. Now 10 billion tree project
2. Increasing shift on to green energy projects; cutting down on oil and gas.
3. Pakistan getting more importance on climate change under PM KHAN on
global level. Speech in UN. He is invited on all climate change forums.
4. Projecting an image of negative implications on Pakistan due to climate
change.

26. IF BIDENWINS  POSSIBLE SHIFT IN US
POLICIES
1. Climate Change – for sure;
2. TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) and NAFTA (North American FreeTrade Agreement)
3. Increasing protectionism will reverse
4. Alliance structure with NATO back on track
5. JCPOA will be back.
6. Free mobility of citizens
7. Mexico wall will be dropped
8. Basically BACKTO GLOBALIZATION, most probably
9. American nationalism will decrease
10. Afghan Peace Process? Continue most likely
11. Israel-Arab world relations? Continue most likely
12. US-China ColdWar  visible under trump,