The Resolution Foundation and the CBI jointly hosted a half-day conference in Westminster with leading employers, economists and policy makers to discuss the big labour market issues facing Britain and how to shape its post-Brexit future. These are the various Resolution Foundation presentations.

1. Britain at a crossroads:
shaping the nation’s
post-Brexit labour market
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

2. Britain at a crossroads
9:00Welcome
9.10: Where are we starting from?The changing state of the UK labour market
10:10 Addressing people’s concerns: how should the world of work change?
11:10 Coffee
11:30 The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to a post-EU labour market
12:30 Carolyn Fairbairn closing remarks
12.40: Lunch and close

3. Where are we starting from?The
changing state of the UK Labour Market
Neil Carberry, Director for People and Skills, CBI
Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium
Paul Gregg, Professor of Economic and Social Policy, University of Bath
Alan Manning, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics
Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

4. Where are we starting from?
Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour
market
Torsten Bell
June 2017
@torstenbell
#Brexitjobs
4

5. LIKE POLITICS,
LABOUR MARKETS CAN SURPRISE US
5

6. We thought employment would be the post-2008
challenge…
6

7. …we were wrong…
7

8. …it was pay
8

9. …it was (and is) pay
9

10. The good: lots of work (and workers)
The bad: reliance on low pay
The ugly: significant growth in insecurity
10
Employment has
grown by nearly 3
million since mid-
2008.
Self-employment
accounts for 40 per
cent of this.
We now have
900,000 workers on
zero hour contracts

11. WHERE NOW FOR A
BREXIT LABOUR MARKET?
11

12. Low paid labour is getting (a lot) more expensive…
12
National Living
Wage is set to be
nearly 10 per cent
higher in 2020.
Median wages are
set to grow by just
3.5 per cent

13. …and this goes beyond the minimum wage
13
The number of
employees who
earn less than £100
a week, and who
are enrolled on a
pension scheme,
has increased 3.5
times since 2012

14. It’s not just price of low paid labour…
14

15. …it’s the availability too
15
Employment at
record high of 74.8
per cent
Unemployment is
at it’s lowest level
since the 1970s

16. Wages plus availability could mean a tipping point for
low pay and the UK labour market
16
Insecure work
remains too high
but may have
peaked

17. OLD WARS, NEW BATTLES
17

18. New government, new labour market
18
Some challenges remain the same
• Maintaining record employment…
• …but tackling 21st Century insecurity
• Productivity the key to our pay disaster

19. New government, new labour market
19
Some challenges remain the same
• Maintaining record employment…
• …but tackling 21st Century insecurity
• Productivity the key to our pay disaster
But we are also in a brave new world
• Tighter labour market brings advantages
• Need to plan now for potential tipping point
combining Osborne’s NLW with May’s Brexit

20. Where are we starting from?The
changing state of the UK Labour Market
Neil Carberry, Director for People and Skills, CBI
Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium
Paul Gregg, Professor of Economic and Social Policy, University of Bath
Alan Manning, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics
Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

21. Addressing people’s concerns: how
should the world of work change?
Kate Bell, Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department, TUC
Sir David Metcalf, Director of Labour Market Enforcement
MatthewTaylor, Chair of theTaylor Review into Modern Employment Practices
Lindsay Judge, Senior Policy Analyst, Resolution Foundation
David Willetts, Executive Chair, Resolution Foundation (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

22. The changing world of work
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs
Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour
market
Lindsay Judge
June 2017

23. 23
Our post-crisis jobs boom…
Total employment growth from May 2008

24. 24
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

25. 25
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

26. 26
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

27. 27
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

28. 28
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

29. 29
…has brought with it a surge in atypical work
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

30. 30
Does this matter? Atypical work and pay
Hourly pay penalty by type of work, 2016

31. 31
Does this matter? Atypical work and under-
employment
Underemployment by type of work, 2015-16

32. 32
Does this matter? Atypical work and under-
employment
Work preferences by type of work, 2015-16

33. Does this matter? Atypical work and rights
33

34. 34
Will the rise in atypical work simply unwind?To some
extent, yes
Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)

35. But there are also structural reasons why atypical
work has increased
35

36. But there are also structural reasons why atypical
work has increased
36

37. Addressing people’s concerns: how
should the world of work change?
Kate Bell, Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department, TUC
Sir David Metcalf, Director of Labour Market Enforcement
MatthewTaylor, Chair of theTaylor Review into Modern Employment Practices
Lindsay Judge, Senior Policy Analyst, Resolution Foundation
David Willetts, Executive Chair, Resolution Foundation (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

38. Refreshments until 11.30
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

39. The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to
a post-EU labour market
Minette Batters, Deputy President, National Farmers' Union
Stephen Clarke, Research and PolicyAnalyst, Resolution Foundation
Jonathan Wadsworth, Senior Research Fellow, LSE
GarethVale, Marketing Director, Manpower Group
Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist, CBI (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

40. Uncharted territory:
Migration and the labour market
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs
Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour
market
Stephen Clarke
June 2017

41. Net migration has risen steadily since the mid-1990s
41

42. Yet some signs of decline since the Brexit vote
42

43. This decline has been primarily driven by A8 migrants
43

44. A large fall in migration would signify a big change
for the labour market
44
EU migrants have
accounted for a third
of employment
growth in the past
five years

45. Low-wage sectors would be particularly affected
45

46. Firms are largely unprepared, expecting little change
now…
46
• Only a quarter (26 per cent) expect the
number of EU nationals in their workforce to
decrease in the next year
• Yet should migration fall the vast majority (73
per cent) expect that it would affect their
business

47. …and underestimating the shifts that may come
47

48. And will be unhappy with the result
48

49. Businesses can adjust but this will take time
49
• 35 per cent would try to hire more UK
nationals
• 20 per cent say costs would increase
• 19 per cent would reduce output or may
have to close
• 14 per cent would change their business
model
• 13 per cent would hire non-EU migrants

50. The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to
a post-EU labour market
Minette Batters, Deputy President, National Farmers' Union
Stephen Clarke, Research and PolicyAnalyst, Resolution Foundation
Jonathan Wadsworth, Senior Research Fellow, LSE
GarethVale, Marketing Director, Manpower Group
Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist, CBI (chair)
@resfoundation @CBItweets
#brexitjobs

51. Influence, insight, access
www.cbi.org.uk

52. #BrexitJobs
Carolyn Fairbairn
Director-general, CBI
BRITAIN AT A CROSSROADS
SHAPING THE NATION’S POST-BREXIT
LABOUR MARKET