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Britain at a crossroads: Shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market

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The Resolution Foundation and the CBI jointly hosted a half-day conference in Westminster with leading employers, economists and policy makers to discuss the big labour market issues facing Britain and how to shape its post-Brexit future. These are the various Resolution Foundation presentations.

Published in: News & Politics
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Britain at a crossroads: Shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market

  1. 1. Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  2. 2. Britain at a crossroads 9:00Welcome 9.10: Where are we starting from?The changing state of the UK labour market 10:10 Addressing people’s concerns: how should the world of work change? 11:10 Coffee 11:30 The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to a post-EU labour market 12:30 Carolyn Fairbairn closing remarks 12.40: Lunch and close
  3. 3. Where are we starting from?The changing state of the UK Labour Market Neil Carberry, Director for People and Skills, CBI Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium Paul Gregg, Professor of Economic and Social Policy, University of Bath Alan Manning, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  4. 4. Where are we starting from? Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market Torsten Bell June 2017 @torstenbell #Brexitjobs 4
  5. 5. LIKE POLITICS, LABOUR MARKETS CAN SURPRISE US 5
  6. 6. We thought employment would be the post-2008 challenge… 6
  7. 7. …we were wrong… 7
  8. 8. …it was pay 8
  9. 9. …it was (and is) pay 9
  10. 10. The good: lots of work (and workers) The bad: reliance on low pay The ugly: significant growth in insecurity 10 Employment has grown by nearly 3 million since mid- 2008. Self-employment accounts for 40 per cent of this. We now have 900,000 workers on zero hour contracts
  11. 11. WHERE NOW FOR A BREXIT LABOUR MARKET? 11
  12. 12. Low paid labour is getting (a lot) more expensive… 12 National Living Wage is set to be nearly 10 per cent higher in 2020. Median wages are set to grow by just 3.5 per cent
  13. 13. …and this goes beyond the minimum wage 13 The number of employees who earn less than £100 a week, and who are enrolled on a pension scheme, has increased 3.5 times since 2012
  14. 14. It’s not just price of low paid labour… 14
  15. 15. …it’s the availability too 15 Employment at record high of 74.8 per cent Unemployment is at it’s lowest level since the 1970s
  16. 16. Wages plus availability could mean a tipping point for low pay and the UK labour market 16 Insecure work remains too high but may have peaked
  17. 17. OLD WARS, NEW BATTLES 17
  18. 18. New government, new labour market 18 Some challenges remain the same • Maintaining record employment… • …but tackling 21st Century insecurity • Productivity the key to our pay disaster
  19. 19. New government, new labour market 19 Some challenges remain the same • Maintaining record employment… • …but tackling 21st Century insecurity • Productivity the key to our pay disaster But we are also in a brave new world • Tighter labour market brings advantages • Need to plan now for potential tipping point combining Osborne’s NLW with May’s Brexit
  20. 20. Where are we starting from?The changing state of the UK Labour Market Neil Carberry, Director for People and Skills, CBI Helen Dickinson OBE, Chief Executive, British Retail Consortium Paul Gregg, Professor of Economic and Social Policy, University of Bath Alan Manning, Professor of Economics, London School of Economics Torsten Bell, Director, Resolution Foundation (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  21. 21. Addressing people’s concerns: how should the world of work change? Kate Bell, Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department, TUC Sir David Metcalf, Director of Labour Market Enforcement MatthewTaylor, Chair of theTaylor Review into Modern Employment Practices Lindsay Judge, Senior Policy Analyst, Resolution Foundation David Willetts, Executive Chair, Resolution Foundation (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  22. 22. The changing world of work @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market Lindsay Judge June 2017
  23. 23. 23 Our post-crisis jobs boom… Total employment growth from May 2008
  24. 24. 24 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  25. 25. 25 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  26. 26. 26 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  27. 27. 27 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  28. 28. 28 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  29. 29. 29 …has brought with it a surge in atypical work Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  30. 30. 30 Does this matter? Atypical work and pay Hourly pay penalty by type of work, 2016
  31. 31. 31 Does this matter? Atypical work and under- employment Underemployment by type of work, 2015-16
  32. 32. 32 Does this matter? Atypical work and under- employment Work preferences by type of work, 2015-16
  33. 33. Does this matter? Atypical work and rights 33
  34. 34. 34 Will the rise in atypical work simply unwind?To some extent, yes Employment growth over time (Jan 2008=100)
  35. 35. But there are also structural reasons why atypical work has increased 35
  36. 36. But there are also structural reasons why atypical work has increased 36
  37. 37. Addressing people’s concerns: how should the world of work change? Kate Bell, Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department, TUC Sir David Metcalf, Director of Labour Market Enforcement MatthewTaylor, Chair of theTaylor Review into Modern Employment Practices Lindsay Judge, Senior Policy Analyst, Resolution Foundation David Willetts, Executive Chair, Resolution Foundation (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  38. 38. Refreshments until 11.30 @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  39. 39. The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to a post-EU labour market Minette Batters, Deputy President, National Farmers' Union Stephen Clarke, Research and PolicyAnalyst, Resolution Foundation Jonathan Wadsworth, Senior Research Fellow, LSE GarethVale, Marketing Director, Manpower Group Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist, CBI (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  40. 40. Uncharted territory: Migration and the labour market @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs Britain at a crossroads: shaping the nation’s post-Brexit labour market Stephen Clarke June 2017
  41. 41. Net migration has risen steadily since the mid-1990s 41
  42. 42. Yet some signs of decline since the Brexit vote 42
  43. 43. This decline has been primarily driven by A8 migrants 43
  44. 44. A large fall in migration would signify a big change for the labour market 44 EU migrants have accounted for a third of employment growth in the past five years
  45. 45. Low-wage sectors would be particularly affected 45
  46. 46. Firms are largely unprepared, expecting little change now… 46 • Only a quarter (26 per cent) expect the number of EU nationals in their workforce to decrease in the next year • Yet should migration fall the vast majority (73 per cent) expect that it would affect their business
  47. 47. …and underestimating the shifts that may come 47
  48. 48. And will be unhappy with the result 48
  49. 49. Businesses can adjust but this will take time 49 • 35 per cent would try to hire more UK nationals • 20 per cent say costs would increase • 19 per cent would reduce output or may have to close • 14 per cent would change their business model • 13 per cent would hire non-EU migrants
  50. 50. The consequences of Brexit: adjusting to a post-EU labour market Minette Batters, Deputy President, National Farmers' Union Stephen Clarke, Research and PolicyAnalyst, Resolution Foundation Jonathan Wadsworth, Senior Research Fellow, LSE GarethVale, Marketing Director, Manpower Group Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist, CBI (chair) @resfoundation @CBItweets #brexitjobs
  51. 51. Influence, insight, access www.cbi.org.uk
  52. 52. #BrexitJobs Carolyn Fairbairn Director-general, CBI BRITAIN AT A CROSSROADS SHAPING THE NATION’S POST-BREXIT LABOUR MARKET

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