Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The Politics of Immigration

584 views

Published on

Peter Kellner's presentation at a policy network event, April 302007

Published in: Business
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

The Politics of Immigration

  1. 1. The Politics of immigration Peter Kellner Chairman
  2. 2. Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li> April 5 </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Health 41 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration 40 </li></ul><ul><li>Crime 36 </li></ul><ul><li>Tax 30 </li></ul><ul><li>The economy 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Education 20 </li></ul>
  3. 3. Saliency in 2005 <ul><li>Which two or three issues matter most? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li> April 5 May 5 </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Health 41 44 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration 40 37 </li></ul><ul><li>Crime 36 30 </li></ul><ul><li>Tax 30 26 </li></ul><ul><li>The economy 27 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Education 20 28 </li></ul>
  4. 4. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>All </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 </li></ul>
  5. 5. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 45 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 31 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 31 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 </li></ul>
  6. 6. Priorities for Gordon Brown <ul><li>What should be his top priorities? </li></ul><ul><li>(top six of 12 shown) Party </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab members </li></ul><ul><li>% % % </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce immigration 65 53 20 </li></ul><ul><li>Bring home troops from Iraq 53 43 25 </li></ul><ul><li>Act on climate change 38 45 56 </li></ul><ul><li>Build more prisons 35 31 16 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher taxes on £100k+ 34 44 51 </li></ul><ul><li>More parent, patient choice 32 31 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Nb: Reform House of Lords 11 18 39 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Many immigrants have contributed positively </li></ul><ul><li>to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Eastern Europeans working here are </li></ul><ul><li>hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 </li></ul>
  8. 8. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Positive statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Many immigrants have contributed positively </li></ul><ul><li>to Britain’s quality of life 58 27 </li></ul><ul><li>Eastern Europeans working here are </li></ul><ul><li>hard-working, competent, reliable 38 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration from Eastern Europe has helped </li></ul><ul><li>Britain’s economy to grow 24 48 </li></ul><ul><li>NHS would collapse without steady supply </li></ul><ul><li>of new immigrants 20 57 </li></ul>
  9. 9. Attitudes towards immigration <ul><li>Negative statements Agree Disagree </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Britain is overcrowded 75 15 </li></ul><ul><li>Current immigration levels make community </li></ul><ul><li>relations more difficult 74 13 </li></ul><ul><li>Britain is losing its identity / culture 72 21 </li></ul><ul><li>Because of low immigrant pay, it’s harder for </li></ul><ul><li>our unemployed & low-skilled to find work 57 28 </li></ul>
  10. 10. Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate and tell the full story 1 </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate as far as they go, but </li></ul><ul><li>don’t tell the full story 29 </li></ul><ul><li>Are inaccurate 56 </li></ul>
  11. 11. Immigration statistics <ul><li>Government figures… </li></ul><ul><li>All Lab </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate and tell the full story 1 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Are accurate as far as they go, but </li></ul><ul><li>don’t tell the full story 29 49 </li></ul><ul><li>Are inaccurate 56 32 </li></ul>
  12. 12. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 62 85 </li></ul><ul><li>Disagree 15 9 </li></ul>
  13. 13. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Take a tougher stance on immigration? </li></ul><ul><li>All Con </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>Agree 62 85 </li></ul><ul><li>Disagree 15 9 </li></ul><ul><li>But remember Romsey by-election </li></ul>
  14. 14. What should the Tories do? <ul><li>Views of party members, Sept 2005 </li></ul><ul><li>‘ The new party leader should campaign more on the economy and the public services, and less on immigration, than in this year’s general election campaign’ </li></ul><ul><li>Support 74% </li></ul><ul><li>Oppose 17% </li></ul>
  15. 15. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>1974-81 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1974 0.4 </li></ul><ul><li>0.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1981 - 0.2 0 </li></ul>
  16. 16. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>The 1986 breakthrough Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1974 0.4 </li></ul><ul><li>0.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1981 - 0.2 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1986 9.7 35 </li></ul>
  17. 17. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres. </li></ul><ul><li>elections </li></ul><ul><li>% </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>1988 14.5 </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>1995 15.0 </li></ul><ul><li> </li></ul><ul><li>2002 16.9 </li></ul><ul><li>2007 10.4 </li></ul>
  18. 18. Len Pen’s record <ul><li>Since 1986 Pres. FN Deputies </li></ul><ul><li>elections votes seats </li></ul><ul><li>% % </li></ul><ul><li>1986 9.7 35 </li></ul><ul><li>1988 14.5 9.7 1 </li></ul><ul><li>1993 13.8 0 </li></ul><ul><li>1995 15.0 </li></ul><ul><li>1997 15.0 1 </li></ul><ul><li>2002 16.9 11.3 0 </li></ul><ul><li>2007 10.4 </li></ul>

×