Mobile trends in Africa presented by Dr. Christoph Stork at the GSMA Mobile 360 conference in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania on the 12th of July 2017.

1. MOBILE TRENDS AFRICA
DR. CHRISTOPH STORK
1
ResearchICTSolutions

2. Africa Total Population
1.2 Billion
960 Million
people covered by 2G
Signal in Africa
310 Million
Internet Users
in Africa
POPULATION
COVERAGE
EXCEEDS
INTERNET
USERS
3 TO 1
2

3. African Mobile Broadband Stats
(Source GSMA)
Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017
31%
25%
18%
13%
10%
7%
61%
56%
52%
47%
41%
34%
58%56%
54%
50%
43%
35%
3G Network population coverage
% unique Mobile Internet subscribers
% of smartphones among active connections

4. Research ICT Africa
Tanzania 2017: Nationally representative household survey
Individuals 15+
owning a mobile
phone
using the
internet
using social
media
Tanzania 57.0% 29.8% 11.9%
Male 62.7% 31.5% 14.3%
Female 52.0% 27.8% 9.8%
Urban 72.6% 55.4% 28.9%
Rural 50.5% 13.6% 4.8%

5. Research ICT Africa
Tanzania Urban Rural Male Female
13%12%14%10%13%
14%17%14%18%15%
64%63%64%61%63%
No access device (computer/smartphone)
No interest/not useful
I don't know how to use it
Main reasons why not using Internet:
No access Device

6. Mobile users 15+: Low smartphone penetration
Tanzania Urban Rural Male Female
20%23%
10%
40%
21%
11%
11%
12%
9%
11%
70%66%
78%
51%
68%
Basic phone Feature phone Smartphone
Research ICT Africa

7. Research ICT Africa
Tanzania Urban Rural Male Female
12.7%
6.0%9.3%
9.4%
9.3%
21.6%28.2%24.9%
24.8%
24.9%
61.1%59.8%62.7%
54.7%60.4%
I cannot afford one, it is too expensive
I do not need one (a feature/basic phone is sufficient for me)
It is too complicated for me/I do not know how to use one
Mobile users 15+ without smartphone:
Affordability main barrier

8. HOW TO CLOSE THE
INTERNET GAP?

9. Freemium
Business
Model
FREEMIUM INTERNET: FREE SLOW INTERNET - 2G
9
2G
3G
4G
Percentage of Population Covered by Mobile Signal
20% 50% 90%
30%
PercentageofPopulationUsingInternet
90%
Affordability
Gap

10. Facebook Free Basics Freemium Internet
What is free zero rated content Internet access
Content controlled by Facebook open
Speed any 2G speeds, eg up to 64 kbps
Initiated MNO MNO / Regulator
Defaults Facebook None
Comparing Free Basics to Freemium Internet

11. DATA + OTT

12. International traffic in billion minutes
(Source: Telegeograpgy)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
550557562552
522
478
436
408
387
353
310
277
557
424
306
215
160
115
86
553321147
OTT traffic Carrier traffic

13. Towards top-up (bundles) and OTT: US cents
Lowest prices in country
US cents, Q4 2016
Out of bundle prices 1 MB based on
1 GB top up1 MB 1 SMS 1 Minute
South Africa 1.04 1.80 4.29 0.58
Uganda 1.40 2.15 5.16 0.14
Tanzania 1.50 1.31 4.21 0.22
Ethiopia 2.11 2.11 4.05 1.00
Ghana 2.46 0.98 1.60 0.16
Cote d'Ivoire 3.29 4.12 7.88 0.29
Mozambique 2.65 2.31 6.50 0.13
Kenya 8.00 1.00 2.67 0.50
Namibia 6.47 2.52 2.73 0.17

14. VMI
0
2
4
6
8
Monthly cost of top up in USD
0 45 90 135 180
Airtel Kenya Cell C South Africa MTC Namibia
MTN South Africa Orange Kenya TN Mobile Namibia
Vodacom South Africa OTT User
Value for Money Index (VMI) Q4 2016
based on OTT user perspective

15. NEW BUSINESS
MODEL

16. Retail pricing: In future only charging for dataRevenue
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Voice + SMS Data

17. Friends &
family
Dynamic
pricing
On-net
calls Peak
On-net calls
Off Peak
On-net
calls Off Off
Peak
Off-net
calls Peak
Off-net calls
Off Peak
Off-net calls
Off Off Peak
Fixed-
line calls
Peak
Fixed-line calls
Off Peak
Fixed-line calls
Off Off Peak
SMS
On-net
SMS
Off-net
Data
MMS
On-net
MMS
Off-net
Recharge
based
incentives
Usage
based
incentives
Zero-rated
services
Mobile
content
Speed
Volume
Old Business Model New
1) Complex product design
2) High marketing cost
3) Complex billing system
4) Postpaid Expense risk: Tx / ISR
1) Simple product s
2) Low marketing cost
3) Simple billing system
4) Total risk = 1 month subs.

18. RESEARCH ICT SOLUTIONS
STEVE ESSELAARDR. CHRISTOPH STORK
+27 84 999 000 2
christoph@researchictsolutions.com
+1 778 865 5695
steve@researchictsolutions.com

19. Research ICT Africa
Tanzania 2017: Can you trust news you read on
social media?
Tanzania Male Female Urban Rural
34.8%
40.9%37.1%40.8%39.2%
9.6%
11.4%
9.6%
12%10.9%
55.5%
47.7%53.3%
47.3%49.9%
Disagree Don’t know Agree