Afghanistan security and stability is an international concern. Post United States South Asia Strategy declared by US President Donald Trump in August 2017 there is a shift in commitment from time to conditions based. Likely scenarios that could emerge based on drivers political, militancy, security capacity and regional support provided in outline with the possibility of four scenarios that may emerge at the end of 2018

2. Critical Drivers in 2018
 Political.
 Militancy.
 Security.
 Regional Support.
 Economy and Development – Not included
– Considered a Constant – Limited variation
in driver behaviour. Low 3 % growth, while
international support also is assured.

3. Political Drivers
 National Unity Government’s legitimacy and
decisions.
 Parliamentary and district council elections
 Power Balance National Unity Government.
 Ethnic relations – E Nic Identity Cards and related
issues.
 Power equations before Presidential elections in 2019.

4. Militancy Drivers
 Violence.
 Intra and Inter Organisational cohesion of groups
 Taliban response to peace initiatives.
 Funding, arms and munitions.
 Sanctuaries in Pakistan.
 Taliban controlled areas in Afghanistan.
 Leadership.
 Daesh conflation from Iraq and Syria.

5. Security Drivers
 Capacity building of the Afghan National Defence and
Security Forces.
 Strategy and Tactics.
 Use of air power.
 Insider penetration by Taliban and other elements.
 Corruption.
 Leadership development.

6. Regional Support Drivers
 International Community support – Assured –
Constant for 2018.
 Geo-politics of International Support.
 Regional Support.
 Geo-politics of Regional Support.
 Afghanistan Pakistan relations.
 Afghanistan Pakistan border situation.

8. Political Militancy Security
Capacity
Regional
Support
Scenario
Driver
Behaviour
p N P P Kabul
Express
Driver
Behaviour
P M P M Advantage
Kabul
Driver
Behaviour
N M M M Muddling
Through
Driver
Behaviour
P N N N Advantage
Taliban
To be Applied in Context – P – Positive, M – Median, N – Negative, F - Failure

9. Detailed coverage and scenario progression can be
tracked at Security Risks Asia - Afghanistan