2. USA Vs China – Trade War
• The trade war between US
and China will lead to impact
the global crisis.
• The new and additional tariff
imposed by US will increase
the importation cost which
will result in slow down the
growth of economy.
3. Global stock markets are falling and
the price of gold is rising.
• Global stocks fell sharply in
October, with America's Dow
and S&P losing over 4%.
• Despite a modest rebound,
the downward trend
continues, affecting stocks
worldwide.
• Asian stocks are slumping,
Australian shares are down
and European stocks have hit
a 22-month low.
• The price of gold, a
traditional safe haven
investment in times of
trouble, is on the rise.
4. Interest rate increases have made
borrowing more expensive
• A number of factors that hint
at an impending crisis are
behind the stock market slip
• The US Federal Reserve has
raised interest rates three
times this year to avoid
overheating the economy.
• central banks, including
China's, have followed suit.
These hikes have made
borrowing more expensive.
5. Corporate & National Debt
levels are Exceptionally High
• Companies and countries have taken
advantage of historically low interest rates and
borrowed heavily over the past decade.
• The higher level of debt will cause issues for
the countries and household to repay the
principal and interest.
• The NPA in India has recorded all time high.
7. Household Debt has hit record highs:
• It's not just corporations and governments that are up to their
eyeballs in debt.
• US household debt rose to a record $13.3 trillion (£10.1trn) in the
second quarter of this year, fueled by growth in the mortgage, auto
and student loan sectors.
• Household debt is at precarious levels in China, the UK, Australia, and
scores of other countries too.
8. The price of oil is rising to
economically damaging
levels.
• Since the global oil price has rebounded,
everything has got a whole lot more
expensive, putting pressure on the finances
of governments, companies and individuals.
• Analysts fear the price of crude could hit
$100 (£76) a barrel within months, harming
economic growth and increasing inflation.
9. Banking
regulations are
being relaxed
in the US
• Another red flag, the Financial CHOICE Act that was
signed into law by President Trump in May has
rolled back many of the Wall Street regulations that
were safeguarded in the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.
• This deregulatory move has made the US and wider
world economy more vulnerable to economic
crises.
10. Shadow banking has grown explosively in recent years
• Adding to the concerns, the global
shadow banking industry, which isn't
subject to the stringent regulations
the regular industry must adhere to,
has enjoyed explosive growth in
recent years.
• Now worth a staggering $160 trillion
(£121trn), the unregulated sector
has become dangerously big, and
could provide the spark for the next
meltdown.
11. Emerging economies are Tanking
• Higher US interest rates have
helped strengthen the dollar.
One of the knock-on effects
of this has been a flight of
capital from emerging
economies like Turkey, India
and Brazil, leading to
currency depreciations.
• Analysts worry these
struggling economies could
trigger a deeper global crisis
12. China's economy is in big trouble
• The world's second largest economy is in big trouble. Government,
corporate and household debt has reached unsustainable levels in the
country.
• As interest rates rise and growth slows, the debt problems are set to
intensify, and could very well set off a wider regional or even
worldwide crisis.
13. Brexit Issue
• The US-China trade dispute,
the Trump administration
tariffs on goods from
countries like Canada, Brexit
and newly elected anti-
globalization governments in
Italy and elsewhere are
disrupting global trade and
may end up being catalysts
for the next big downturn.
14. • Please let me know if any
suggestions required @
anu.mishranu@gmail.com.