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HOW CAN URBAN POPULATIONS IN
LATIN AMERICA BE ASSISTED TO ATTAIN
    SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT?



            ROBERTO VILLARREAL
                1/17/2013
CONTENTS
1. A MOST PERTINENT SUBJECT

2. EXTRAORDINARY COMPLEXITY

3. INTERVENTION FEATURES

4. SOME VALUABLE CONTRIBUTIONS

5. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

ROBERTO VILLARREAL     1/17/2013   2
MOST PERTINENT SUBJECT                               MORE
                                                                   INFO



• Huge stakes about sustainable
  development
    – Environmental, social, economic                    The living
          •   Population size and demographic trends   conditions of
          •   Production and income generation         many millions
                                                       of people risk
          •   Finance and innovation                      serious
          •   Public services                          deterioration
                                                       over time, for
    – Many irreversible phenomena involved              present and
          • Need to act early enough                       future
                                                        generations
    – Extraordinarily large investments needed
          • By public, private and social actors


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                  1/17/2013                  3
PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION IN 2000 AND INCREASE                                                                                   MORE

        COMPARED TO 1990, IN COUNTRIES OF LATIN AMERICA                                                                                     INFO


      Change in percentage of urban population from 1990 to 2000 (percent points)
14
           I. LOW URBANIZATION                                                                                 II. HIGH URBANIZATION
                FAST INCREASE                    Costa Rica                                                         FAST INCREASE
12                                                                        Panama
                         Guatemala
10
                                                              Paraguay                      Mexico
                                                                                Surinam
 8
                                                El Salvador

 6               Haiti                                 Ecuador
                                                          Bolivia
 4
                                                                                Colombia               Chile         Argentina
                 Guyana                                                          Peru
                                         Domincan Rep                                         Brazil            Venezuela
 2
                                         Nicaragua                                   Cuba
                                              Jamaica                                                                    Uruguay
                               Belize                                                       French Guiana
 0
      30                 40               50                   60               70    Urban population in 2000 (% 90 total population)
                                                                                                80                of               100
 -2                                  Honduras
       IV. LOW URBANIZATION                                                                                    III. HIGH URBANIZATION
            SLOW INCREASE                                                                                            SLOW INCREASE
 -4

SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be
different as indicated in the previous table.
ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                  1/17/2013                                                           4
URBAN PROFILES OF SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 2000
           (Cumulative percentage of total population in localities by size)
 80

 70

 60                                                                                     Mexico
 50                                                                                     Brazil
                                                                                        Argentina
 40
                                                                                        Colombia
 30                                                                                     Peru
                                                                                        Chile
 20
                                                                                        Bolivia
 10                                                                                     Uruguay

 0
      50-500 thousand inhabitants 500 thousand to one million     One million or more
                                          inhabitants                 inhabitants
      SOURCE:Author´s calculations with data from CELADE CEPAL.


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                               1/17/2013                                        5
POPULATION IN SELECTED CITIES AND METROPOLITAN ZONES OF
                              LATIN AMERICA
           Country, city, date          Population                Country, city, date           Population
                                         (millions)                                              (millions)
Argentina:     Buenos Aires (1991)         2.96         Ecuador:       Guayaquil (2003)             2.09
                Córdoba (1991)             1.16                        Quito (2003)                 1.48
                                                                                                                                                           Pop.
Bolivia:        Santa Cruz (2005)          1.34         Guatemala: Guatemala (2001)                 1.02
                                                                                                                                                         growth
                                                                                                                                      Pop.      % of
                La Paz (2005)              0.83         Haiti:         Port au Prince (2007)        0.99          City size    No.                        1990-
                                                                                                                                      (106)     pop.
                                                                                                                                                          2000
Brazl:          Belo Horizonte (2005)      2.40         Mexico:        Acapulco (2003)              0.82
                                                                                                                                                           (%)
                Brasilia (2005)            2.38                        Guadalajara (2003)           3.94
                                                                                                                 50,000 –
                                                                                                                              602      87.7     18.7        2.5
                Salvador (2005)            2.71                        Mexico City (2003)          19.49         500,000

                Rio de Janeiro (2005)      6.14                        Monterrey (2003)             3.52          500,000
                                                                                                                     –         43      31.5      6.3        3.4
                Sao Paulo                  11.02        Panama:        Panama City (2000)           0.48          1million
Chile:          Santiago (2004)            4.98         Paraguay:      Asunción (2002)              0.51           More
Colombia:      Bogotá                      7.19         Perú:          Lima (2003)                  7.08          than 1       49     159.1     32.7        2.7
                                                                                                                  million
                Cali (2005)                2.42         Uruguay:      Montevideo (2005)             1.35
                                                                                                                    Sum       694     278.3     57.7        2.6
                Cartagena (2005)           1.03         Venezuela: Caracas (1998)                   1.98
                Medellín (2005)            2.09                        Maracaibo (1998)             1.71
Costa Rica: San José (2003)                0.33                        Valencia (1998)              1.23
Source: Prepared with data from e United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook 2005, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2005.htm

 LARGE DIVERSITY ALSO IN DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS, CULTURE,
           SPATIAL FEATURES, SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS, ETC.



         ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                               1/17/2013                                                                     6
MEXICO: POPULATION UNDER DIFFERENT POVERTY
        LINES BY SIZE OF LOCALITIES, 2000-2002
                       Extreme poverty                 Intermediate poverty            Moderate poverty




             7.4
                                                 9.1

                                                                                14
                                                                                                                    16.5
             2.9

                                                 3.5



                                                                                 4.6
                                                                                                                    2.9



          16.2                               13.2                                7.5                                7.2



        Localities with less than 15 thousand inhabitants                Localities with more than 15 thousand inhabitants
             2000                             2002                              2000                         2002
      SOURCE: Author’s calculations with data from SEDESOL.


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                           1/17/2013                                                       7
URBAN POPULATION PROSPECTS UP TO 2050 FOR SELECTED
                  LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES
250


                                                                                                         Brazil
200
                                                                                                                         35.37


150

                                                                                                         Mexico

100                                                                                                                      26.90



                                                                                                         Colombia
 50
                                                                                                                         11.31
                                                                                                         Argentina
                                                                                                         Chile
                                                                                                                              4.21
  0
        1990     1995     2000    2005     2009     2010    2015     2020     2025     2030    2035     2040      2045   2050


      Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World
      Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009
      Revision, http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/.
ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                         1/17/2013                                                                 8
MOREOVER…
      • Predominant role of cities for development of countries
        and subnational regions

      • Global and international effects
            – Internationaly agreed goals and commitments

      • Numerous and diverse actors and stakeholders
            – Levels of government
            – Private sector in different industries
            – Diverse population groups

      • Considerable lags and long-term consequences

IMPLICATION: AN EVEN GREATER AND MORE DIFFICULT PROBLEM

 ROBERTO VILLARREAL                     1/17/2013                 9
AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST:


• Incomplete knowledge and information
    – Limited undestanding hinders adequate actions and
      complicates coordination

    – Uncertainty and credibility challenges

           EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND LEARNING-AS-WE-GO
                           ARE NECESSARY

 ROBERTO VILLARREAL          1/17/2013                  10
EXTRAORDINARY COMPLEXITY                                 MORE
                                                                INFO




• Sustainable development is needed in three dimensions:
     – Economic, social and environmental
• Very large number of issues
     – Inter-relationships
     – Systemic problems
• Combined natural, technical, social, behavioral, financial
  and governance phenomena
     – Inter-disciplinary matters
• Difficult to visualize, understand for individuals and
  single organizations
     – Policy making and implementation challenges


ROBERTO VILLARREAL              1/17/2013                  11
WHICH IMPLIES…
• A multistakeholder endeavor
      – Private sector, society, public sector, academic and research
        institutions
            • Open government
            • Social learning

• No one-size-fits-all
      – Remarkable diversity of national and local conditions

• Policy coherence and coordination
      – Across sectors
            • Whole of government
      – Across levels of government
            • Multilevel governance


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                    1/17/2013                    12
INTERVENTION FEATURES
• Policy packages
      – Relevant, effective, efficient, participatory, equitable
            • Trust, partnerships and ownership building
            • Fundamentally anchored in local challenges
      – Selectivity, with an integral systems perspective
            • High impact
            • Cost effective
                     – Locally and nationally

      – Engaging all types of stakeholders in decision and policy
        making, implementation, monitoring and evaluation
            • National and sub-national governments
            • Private sector and society
            • Research and academic institutions
      – Legal and regulatory, policy and programs, infrastructure and private
        investment, capacity building, awareness raising
      – Regional or territorial development approach, and comparative
        actions
      – Graduality, with a long-term plan

ROBERTO VILLARREAL                              1/17/2013                       13
SOME VALUABLE CONTRIBUTIONS
        1.        Leadership and mobilization of actors and stakeholders
              –      Awareness raising, advocacy, prioritization
        2.        Technical assistance to strategy-making
              –       Participatory planning
        3.        Production of toolkits
              –      Databases, indicators
              –      Knowledge repositories, good practices
              –      Model legislation
              –      Planning and budgeting
              –      Training to government and non-government actors
        4.        Policy advice
              –      Multilevel governance, open government, whole-of goverment
              –      Sustainable production and consumption
                       •   Water, energy, emmissions and residuals, transport, housing, ICT
                       •   Management of natural resources
              –      Public finance
                       •   Budgeting for goals, regional infrastructure, local taxation, transfers
              –      Public-Private-People-Partnerships
              –      Innovation
        5.        Financial resources
              –      Modernization of the State and public administration
              –      Public and private infrastructure
              –      Private sector development
              –      Social development


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                            1/17/2013                              14
FINAL CONSIDERATIONS
• Multiple entry points
• Flagship initiatives
• Attention to all dimensions of sustainable
  development
• Local, national and global priority goals
• Engagement of non-State actors
• Utmost importance of open government priority
• Anticorruption
                       END OF PRESENTATION

ROBERTO VILLARREAL           1/17/2013            15
ANNEXES




ROBERTO VILLARREAL     1/17/2013   16
AMÉRICA LATINA: TASA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION TOTAL, URBANA Y RURAL
                                       LATIN AMERICA: POPULATION GROWTH RATE, TOTAL, URBAN AND RURAL
                                                                   1950-2000

                                                  Tasa de crecimiento anual (por cien)/
                                                                                                                                    Diferencial de crecimiento
                                                     Annual growth rates (percent)                        Tasa de urbanización /
                                                                                                                                   Urbano-Rural / Urban-Rural
                                                                                                            Urbanization rate
                                                                                                                                        Growth differential
                                        Total / Total           Urbano / Urban            Rural / Rural



Argentina                                   1.5                       2.2                     -1.0                 0.7                         3.2
Belice / Belize                             2.5                       2.2                     2.8                  -0.3                       -0.6
Bolivia                                     2.0                       3.2                     0.9                  1.2                         2.3
Brasil / Brazil                             2.4                       4.0                     -0.1                 1.6                         4.0
Colombia                                    2.2                       3.2                     0.7                  1.0                         2.6
Costa Rica                                  3.1                       4.2                     2.1                  1.1                         2.1
Cuba                                        1.7                       2.1                     -0.1                 0.4                         2.3
Chile                                       1.9                       2.6                     -0.3                 0.7                         2.9
Ecuador                                     2.6                       4.1                     1.4                  1.5                         2.7
El Salvador                                 2.4                       3.3                     1.8                  0.8                         1.4
Guatemala                                   2.6                       3.8                     2.0                  1.2                         1.8
Guyana / Guiana                             1.5                       1.7                     0.9                  0.2                         0.7

Guayana Francesa /
French Guiana                               4.7                       4.3                     2.5                  -0.4                       1.9
Haití / Haiti                               2.0                       3.9                     1.2                  2.0                        2.8
Honduras                                    3.0                       3.8                     2.6                  0.8                        1.2
Jamaica                                     1.2                       2.8                     0.3                  1.5                        2.5
México / Mexico                             2.7                       3.8                     1.0                  1.1                        2.8
Nicaragua                                   3.2                       4.1                     2.4                  0.9                        1.8
Panamá / Panama                             2.4                       3.7                     1.2                  1.2                        2.5
Paraguay                                    2.6                       3.6                     1.7                  1.0                        1.9
Perú / Peru                                 2.4                       3.7                     0.9                  1.3                        2.7
Surinam                                     1.7                       2.3                     -0.1                 0.6                        2.3
Uruguay                                     0.6                       1.0                     -1.6                 0.4                        2.6

República Dominicana /
Dominican Republic                          2.6                       4.5                     1.2                  1.9                        3.3

República Bolivariana de Venezuela /

Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela            3.0                      4.2                   0.3                  1.2                           4.0
   ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                  1/17/2013                                                                       17
Fuente: Base de datos DEPUALC, 2000. Boletín demográfico Nos 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. Demographic Bulletin No 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
AMÉRICA LATINA: PORCENTAJE DE POBLACIÓN URBANA, POR PAÍSES
                                        LATIN AMERICA: PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION, BY COUNTRIES
                                                                  1950-2000


                                                                                  Porcentaje urbano (por cien) / Urban porcentage (per cent)

                                                                    1950             1960           1970         1980            1990          2000


Argentina                                                           62.5             73.8            79.0         83.0           87.3          90.5
Belice / Belize                                                     56.5             53.8            51.2         49.3           47.6          47.9
Bolivia                                                             33.9             39.3            41.7         50.5           57.5          62.4
Brasil / Brazil                                                     36.5             43.0            55.9         67.6           78.4          81.2
Colombia                                                            42.7             52.1            59.1         67.2           71.0          74.9
Costa Rica                                                          33.5             34.5            40.6         44.5           46.8          59.0
Cuba                                                                55.1             54.9            60.7         69.0           73.6          75.2
Chile                                                               60.7             68.2            75.1         82.2           83.5          86.6
Ecuador                                                             28.5             35.3            41.4         49.0           55.1          61.4
El Salvador                                                         36.5             38.5            39.5         41.6           50.4          58.4
Guatemala                                                           25.0             33.6            36.4         32.7           35.0          46.1
Guyana / Guiana                                                     28.1             29.0            29.5         30.6           33.2          36.2

Guayana Francesa /
French Guiana                                                       52.0             63.6            67.3         70.6           74.4          75.0
Haití / Haiti                                                       12.2             15.6            20.2         24.5           29.5          35.6
Honduras                                                            31.0             30.4            37.2         38.7           47.5          45.5
Jamaica                                                             26.7             33.8            41.5         46.8           51.5          52.1
México / Mexico                                                     36.2             43.7            51.4         58.4           65.6          74.7
Nicaragua                                                           34.9             40.9            47.7         50.3           54.4          56.1
Panamá / Panama                                                     36.0             41.5            47.6         50.4           53.7          65.6
Paraguay                                                            34.6             35.8            37.1         42.8           50.3          58.7
Perú / Peru                                                         35.3             47.4            59.5         65.2           70.1          72.8
Surinam                                                             47.0             47.2            46.0         54.9           65.4          74.1
Uruguay                                                             78.0             81.0            83.3         87.3           90.8          91.9

República Dominicana /
Dominican Republic                                                  23.9             30.5            39.7         52.0           56.1          58.2

República Bolivariana de Venezuela /
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela                                    53.7              67.4           77.2        84.0         84.4             86.9
Fuente: Base deVILLARREAL
     ROBERTO datos DEPUALC, 2000. Boletín demográfico Nos 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
                                                                     1/17/2013                                                                    18
Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. Demographic Bulletin No 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
AMÉRICA LATINA: CIUDADES DE 1 MILLÓN Y MÁS HABITANTES, SEGÚN CANTIDAD DE CIUDADES Y POBLACIÓN
                         LATIN AMERICA: CITIES WITH ONE MILLION AND MORE INHABITANTS, BY NUMBER OF CITIES AND POPULATION
                                                                     1950-2000

                                                                                                Población que reside en ciudades de 1 millón y más habitantes (en
                                         Número de ciudades de 1 millón y más habitantes /
                                                                                                                                miles) /
                                                                                                 Population living in cities of one million and more inhabitants (in
                                       Number of cities with one million and more inhabitants
                                                                                                                              thousands)
                                        1950      1960      1970    1980      1990      2000      1950         1960        1970         1980       1990        2000


Argentina                                 1         1         1       2         3         3       4 747        6 807      8 462     10 986       13 574      14 575
Bolivia                                   0         0         0       0         1         2                                                      1 119       2 534
Brasil / Brazil                           2         3         6       9        13        16       5 360        9 611     20 181     33 408       45 845      61 111
Colombia                                  0         1         3       4         4         4                    1 683      5 371      8 576       10 502      11 685
Costa Rica                                0         0         0       0         0         0
Cuba                                      1         1         1       1         1         1       1 224        1 147      1 787      1 929       2 111       2 187
Chile                                     1         1         1       1         1         1       1 437        2 072      2 792      3 920       4 729       5 392
Ecuador                                   0         0         0       1         2         2                                          1 249       2 692       3 559
El Salvador                               0         0         0       0         1         1                                                      1 043       1 959
Guatemala                                 0         0         1       1         1         1                               1 014      1 203       1 632       2 149
Haití / Haiti                             0         0         0       0         1         1                                                      1 134       1 767
Honduras                                  0         0         0       0         0         0
México / Mexico                           1         1         3       3         4         7       3 354        5 466     11 732     18 284       21 805      29 365
Nicaragua                                 0         0         0       0         0         1                                                                  1 009
Panamá / Panama                           0         0         0       0         0         1                                                                  1 069
Paraguay                                  0         0         0       0         1         1                                                      1 177       1 613
Perú / Peru                               0         1         1       1         1         1                    1 846      3 303      4 608       6 321       7 454

República Dominicana /
                                          0         0         0       1         1         1                                          1 313       1 610       2 148

Dominican Republic
Uruguay                                   1         1         1       1         1         1       1 140        1 310      1 402      1 511       1 591         …

República Bolivariana de Venezuela /
Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela           0         1          1        1         3     4                     1 372      2 184      2 640       5 155       7 962
… Información no disponible en el CELADE. This information is not available in CELADE.
      ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                       1/17/2013
Fuente: Base de datos DEPUALC, 2004. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.                                                                      19
Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
AMÉRICA LATINA: NUMERO DE CIUDADES, Y DE HABITANTES, PORCENTAJE DE LA POBLACIÓN TOTAL Y CRECIMIENTO ANUAL, POR TAMAÑO DE LAS CIUDADES, 2000
                                                                                                                                                                                        RETURN
                                                 Ciudades de 50mil a 500 mil
                      Población Total                    habitantes                        Ciudades de 500 mil a 1 millón habitantes            Ciudades de 1 Millón o más habitantes
                                                                % Pob
                        NH       TMCA          NC      NH         Tot    TMCA                NC       NH       %Pob Tot     TMCA                 NC    NH(miles) %Pob Tot       TMCA

Argentina             36260130     1.0          52     7498538        20.7     2.2           3       2810704          7.8        0.9               3       14575         40.2       0.7
Belice                      …       …           …           …           …       …            …            …            …          …               …           …            …         …
Bolivia                8273344     2.7          10     1631398        19.2     4.2           1        517026          6.2       -3.2               2        2534         30.6      12.6
Brasil               169799170     1.5         201    32655979        19.2     1.9           8       5907246          3.4       -0.9              16       61111         36.0       3.3
Colombia              41468384     1.9          52     7299186        17.5     2.7           4       2956435          7.1        3.9               4       11685         28.1       1.1
Costa Rica             3809879     2.8          6       577751        15.1    14.1           1        900835        23.6         2.5               0           0          0.0       0.0
Cuba*                  9723605     1.1          15     1955809        20.1     2.5           0             0          0.0        0.0               1        2187         22.5       0.4
Chile                 15116435     1.2          27     3555100        23.5     2.7           2       1482090          9.8        0.9               1        5392         35.7       1.4
Ecuador               12070115     2.0          17     2217219        18.4     3.6           0             0          0.0        0.0               2        3559         29.5
El Salvador*           5118599     1.8          4       481026         9.4     5.3           0             0          0.0        0.0               1        1959         38.3       8.7
Guatemala             11237196     3.5          5       408964         3.6    17.5           1        735530        6.5**         …                1        2149         19.1       3.1
Guyana                      …       …           …           …           …       …            …            …            …          …               …           …            …         …
Guayana Francesa            …       …           …           …           …       …            …            …            …          …               …           …            …         …
Haití                  5053791     1.4          1        64406         1.3   -18.6           1        724002        14.3          …                1        1767         35.0       5.5
Honduras               6535344     3.0          9      1101890        16.8     6.9           1        819867        12.5         3.2               0           0          0.0       0.0
Jamaica                     …       …           …           …           …       …            …            …            …          …               …           …            …         …
México                97483412     1.8         105    15567843        16.0     0.2           13      9151290          9.4        5.6               7       29365         30.1       3.4
Nicaragua                   …       …           …           …           …       …            …            …            …          …                1        1009           …         …
Panamá                 2688405     1.4          3       242357         9.0     2.5           1        844532       31.4**        3.2               1        1069         39.8
Paraguay               5183101     2.2          3       355599         6.8     3.8           0             0          0.0        0.0               1        1613         31.1       3.7
Perú                  22048356     2.2          26     3603736        16.3     1.2           2       1118974          5.0         …                1        7454         33.8       1.8
República
Dominicana             8500173     1.7          14      1416180       16.7     0.3           1        507418          6.0         …               1         2148         25.3       3.3
Surinam                     …       …           …            …          …       …            …            …            …          …               …           …            …         …
Uruguay                3241003     0.3          6        428173       13.2     2.3           0             0          0.0        0.0              1         1591         49.1       0.5
República
Bolivariana de
Venezuela             23054210     2.2          46     6282109        27.2     1.6           4       3065593         13.3        6.4               4        7962         34.5       5.4
TOTAL                486664652     2.6         602    87343263        18.7     2.5           43     31541542          6.3        3.4              49      159130         32.7       2.7


NOTA 1. NH: Número de habitantes, año 2000; NC: número de ciudades, año 2000; TMCA: Tasa media de crecimiento anual, por cien, 1990-2000; TMCA: Tasa media de crecimiento
anual, por cien, 1990-2000; % Pob Tot: porcentaje de la población total, por cien, año 2000. Los años mencionados varían para algunos países, como se indica en la Nota 2.
NOTA 2. Los datos de población se refien al último año del período que se indica enseguida para cada país, y las tasa medias de crecimiento se calcularon para el promedio del período:
Argentina,1991-2001; Bolivia,1992-2001; Brasil, 1991-2000; Colombia,1993-2005; Costa Rica, 1984-2000; Cuba, 1970-1981; Chile:1992-2002; Ecuador, 1991-2001; El salvador, 1971-
1992; Guatemala, 1994-2002; Haití, 1971-1982; Honduras, 1988-2001; Paraguay, 1992-2002; Panamá, 1990-2000; Perú, 1981-1992; República Dominicana, 1993-2002; Uruguay, 1996-
2004; Venezuela, 1991-2002.
* Los datos de estos países exhiben una obsolecencia notable: Cuba, 1981 (excepto el dato para la ciudad de más de 1 millón de habitantes que corresponde a 2000); El Salvador, 1992;
Haití, 1982.
** En Guatemala hay 1 ciudad de más de 500 mil habitantes, pero el último dato de población de la misma se refiere a 1964. asimismo, en Panamá, los datos se refieren a 1990 (dada la
alta tasa de urbanización registrada entonces es improbable que la población de la ciudad haya decrecido subsecuentemente, como erróneamente indican los datos disponibles para 2000).
          ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                               1/17/2013                                                                                 20
Lo mismo ocurre en Uruguay, donde el último dato disponible es para 1991.
Fuente: Cálculos propios, con información de CEPAL, Centro Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Demografía (CELADE).
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN
                                                                                                                         MORE INO
                    LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2000
                              (%)                                                                                        RETURN

     3
          RURAL
                                             Belize                           Honduras               French Guyana
    2.5
                                                                                   Nicaragua
                                                                              Guatemala                Costa Rica
     2
                                                                  El Salvador
    1.5
                                                                           Paraguay             Ecuador
                                                                              Panama               Dominican Rep
                                                                                             Haiti
     1                                                                                      Mexico
                                            Guyana                  Bolivia      Peru
                                                                 Colombia
    0.5
                                                        Jamaica                                        Venezuela

     0                                                                                                           URBAN
                                            Cuba        Surinam                         Brazil
          0       0.5       1         1.5       2          2.5          3         3.5            4         4.5       5
   -0.5                                                         Chile

     -1
                                                      Argentina

   -1.5
                            Uruguay
     -2

SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be
different as indicated in the previous table.
ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                  1/17/2013                                                        21
URBAN POPULATION IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1950-2000MORE INO
                      (% OF TOTAL)                     RETURN

                                           1950      1980      2000
100

 90

 80

 70

 60

 50

 40

 30

 20

 10

  0




SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be
different as indicated in the previous table.
ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                1/17/2013                                                 22
POPULATION IN CITIES LARGER THAN ONE MILLION
     INHABITANTS IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1990-2000
                                                                                                              RETURN
                           (Millions)
                                                1990       2000
30        45.8       61.1


25


20


15


10


 5


 0




SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be
different as indicated in the previous table.
ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                1/17/2013                                                 23
DIVERSE ISSUES RELATED TO THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND
 ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT                                                                MORE
                                                                                                                    INFO


         ECONOMIC                                SOCIAL                          ENVIRONMENTAL
         DIMENSION                             DIMENSION                           DIMENSION
          Income growth                     Poverty eradication           Decreasing rents from natural resources
       Income distribution               Equity and social cohesion                Private property rights
         Competitiveness                  Acceptance of diversity      Adaptation to climate change, energy efficiency
        Risks management                Safety and social protection     Prevention of natural disasters, resilience
    Population size and skills      Labor force participation and training   Green production and consumption
    Investment and finance                         Savings                               Conservation
   Knowledge and innovation                      Education                  Environmental education and research
             Space                         Land planning and use           Clean, safe and permanent natl. environ.
Markets private goods & services                Basic needs                    Treated water, pollution control
         Labor markets                      Decent employment                            Green jobs
  Public government services                    Citizenship                      Environmental ombudsman
 Public infrastructure services                  Inclusion                         Environmental services
     Public social services                   Empowerement                          Public property rights
Public regulation and enforcement       Compliance with rule of law              Environmental protection
        Public accountability               Democratization                           Social oversight
           Public finance                    Anticorruption                  Environmental taxes and subsidies
       Public governance                        Participation               Intertemporal intergenerational links
       Public information                          Media                      Public georeferenced ICT systems


 ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                 1/17/2013                                                 24
SYSTEMS APPROACH                                                                                                                                                  MORE INO
                                                                                                 +                             +
                                                                                                      Social &                                                                                                              RETURN
                                                                                                      economic                                                     Law
                                                                                                                                                              enforcement
                                                                                                        equity
    Economic
                                                                                                                                       +                           and
    efficiency
      gains
                                                          -                                      (water & sanitation,
                                                                                                  education, health,
                                                                                                                                                              anticorruption


                                           Social                                                      gender,
                                            and                                -                         etc.)
                                                                                                                                            Solidarity
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Safety
                            -            economic
                                         inequality                                                            Institutional
                                                                                                                               +                      Effective
                                                                                                                                               freedoms, protection of                         of people
            Human                                                        Social and                                                                    rights                                     and
                                                                                                                 adaptive
        development                                                      economic                                capacity                                                                       property
       (income,health,
          education;
                                             -            -              exclusion                                     Social and political
                                                                                                                                                              +                                  Crime
                                                                                                                         leadership &                                     Social
         adjusted for                     Decent                                                                                                                                               prevention
          inequality)                   employment                        +                                              participation                                   cohesion
                                                                                                                                                                                            +
                                         (all social                                                                               +          Public
                                                                                                                                                                                           +
                           ROR      +     groups)
                                                                               Poverty
                                                                                                         -                                  governance
                                                                                                                                                                   Rule
                                                                                                                                                                         +        +                       Social
    Tax and public
     expenditure
                          human
                          capital
                                          Social
                                                  -                                                                                                                 of
                                                                                                                                                                   Law                     +
                                                                                                                                                                                                           and
                                                                                                                                                                                                        economic
       policies
                                        protection                                                                                                +                                                       capital
                 Productivity,
                                        and family                                                                                                                  +
                 and business
                                         features
                                                                                                   Energy                               Alternatives               +           Political                +
                     -labor
                                                                                                  efficiency                             to support                            stability
                  regulations                 Policies                                                                                 livelihoods of
                                             on cost of                                                                                   the poor                                                      Preparedness for


                      +             +    +
                                               living                          Primary
                                                                               sources               -       Energy use
                                                                                                                                                                       -              +                 natural disasters

                                                                                                              (quantity)
                                                 -           Products &
                                                          processes choice                           +                                                   Global                                                     +
                                                      +                                      Clean energy
                                                                                              technology
                                                                                                                               +                         climate                           Sustainable
                                                                                                                                                         change                              and safe
                                 Economy
                                                                                                                                                                                              natural
                                                                                   Degradation                Pollution            +                                                       environment
                    +                                 -                            and mgt. of               (air, waters
                                                                                   ecosystems
                                                                                                     -         and soils           -
     Population, l
      abor force                    +   +                     Recycling and                                                                                                  +             +        +
                                                               reutilization                                    Natural                                 Biodiversity
                                                                                                                stocks
                                                                                                               (renewable
                                                                                                                                       +
                                                                                                                 and non-
                         Savings and
                    investment, public and
                                                                      Production
                                                                   costs, investment
                                                                                                                renewable
                                                                                                               resources)
                                                                                                                                       +
                          private debt                                 allocation
                                                                              Food, public health


ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                                                       1/17/2013                                                                                                      25
MORE INO


                                                                                                                                             RETURN



                                          Energy
                                         efficiency




                                                         Primary
                                 +                       sources          -      Energy use
                                                                                  (quantity)
                                         Products &
                                         processes                         +                        +    Global
                                                                                                                       -
                                           choice                   Clean energy
                                     +                               technology                          climate              Sustainable
                                                                                                                                and safe
                                                                                                         change
            +          Economy
                                                                                                                                 natural
                                                           Degradation            Pollution         +                         environment
                                                                                 (air, waters
Population, l
                                     -                     and mgt. of
                                                           ecosystems
                                                                                                                       +
 abor force
                                                                            -      and soils
                                                                                                    -
                           +
                                          Recycling
                                             and
                                                                                                                             +       +
                                         reutilization
                                                                                       Natural          Biodiversity
                                                                                       stocks
                                                                                       (renewable   +
            Savings and                                                                 and non-
                                                                                       renewable
            investment,
                                                                                       resources)
             public and
            private debt                        Production
                                             costs, investment
                                                 allocation
                                                                         Food, publi
                                                                          c health
                                                                                                                           GREEN ECONOMY




     ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                         1/17/2013                                                   26
INCLUSSIVE AND EQUITABLE                                                                            MORE INO
                                                                                                 +
                     SOCIETY                                                                          Social &
                                                                                                      economic           RETURN
                                                                                                        equity
                              Economic                                                           (water & sanitation,
                              efficiency
                                gains
                                                                               -                  education, health,
                                                                                                       gender,
                                                                    Social
                                                                     and              -                  etc.)
                                                     -            economic
                                                                  inequality
                                         Human                                      Social and
                                     development                                    economic
                                   (income, health,
                                       education;
                                                                   -           -    exclusion
                                      adjusted for                 Decent
                                       inequality)               employment         +
                                                                  (all social
                                                                   groups)
                                Tax and public      ROR      +                        Poverty
                                 expenditure
                                   policies
                                                   human
                                                   capital         Social
                                                                         -
                                                                 protection
                                           Productivity,         and family
                                               and                features
                                            business -
                                              labor
                                           regulations
                                                                        Policies
                                               +             +          on cost
                                                                        of living


                                                                    -
                                                 Economy
                                   +
                       Population, l
                        abor force

                                                 +

                                    Savings and
ROBERTO VILLARREAL             investment, public and              1/17/2013                                            27
                                    private debt
INSTITUTIONS FOR
                                                                                                RESILIENCE AND
                                                                                                                                    RETURN
                                                                                           PUBLIC GOVERNANCE
                          Social &
                          economic
                                                 +                            Law
                            equity                                       enforcement
                     (water & sanitation,         +                           and
                                                                         anticorruption
                      education, health,
                           gender,
                             etc.)                       Solidarity

                                                                Effective
                                                                                                          Safety
                           Institutional
                             adaptive
                                            +             freedoms, protection of
                                                                 rights
                                                                                                        of people
                                                                                                           and
                             capacity                                                                    property
                                  Social and political
                                    leadership &                         +           Social               Crime
                                    participation                                                       prevention
                                                                                    cohesion
                                                                                                       +
                                            +              Public
                                                                                                  +
                                                         governance             +            +                    Social
                                                                             Rule
                                                                              of                                   and
                                                                             Law                                economic
                                                                                                                  capital
                                                                +
                                                                                          Political             +
                                                                                          stability
                                                                                                               Preparedness for
                                                                                                               natural disasters
                                                                                                 +
                                                                                                                           +
                                                                                                      Sustainable
                                                                                                        and safe
                                                                                                         natural
                                                                                                      environment




ROBERTO VILLARREAL                                                    1/17/2013                                                    28

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How Latin American Cities Can Achieve Sustainable Development

  • 1. HOW CAN URBAN POPULATIONS IN LATIN AMERICA BE ASSISTED TO ATTAIN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT? ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013
  • 2. CONTENTS 1. A MOST PERTINENT SUBJECT 2. EXTRAORDINARY COMPLEXITY 3. INTERVENTION FEATURES 4. SOME VALUABLE CONTRIBUTIONS 5. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 2
  • 3. MOST PERTINENT SUBJECT MORE INFO • Huge stakes about sustainable development – Environmental, social, economic The living • Population size and demographic trends conditions of • Production and income generation many millions of people risk • Finance and innovation serious • Public services deterioration over time, for – Many irreversible phenomena involved present and • Need to act early enough future generations – Extraordinarily large investments needed • By public, private and social actors ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 3
  • 4. PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION IN 2000 AND INCREASE MORE COMPARED TO 1990, IN COUNTRIES OF LATIN AMERICA INFO Change in percentage of urban population from 1990 to 2000 (percent points) 14 I. LOW URBANIZATION II. HIGH URBANIZATION FAST INCREASE Costa Rica FAST INCREASE 12 Panama Guatemala 10 Paraguay Mexico Surinam 8 El Salvador 6 Haiti Ecuador Bolivia 4 Colombia Chile Argentina Guyana Peru Domincan Rep Brazil Venezuela 2 Nicaragua Cuba Jamaica Uruguay Belize French Guiana 0 30 40 50 60 70 Urban population in 2000 (% 90 total population) 80 of 100 -2 Honduras IV. LOW URBANIZATION III. HIGH URBANIZATION SLOW INCREASE SLOW INCREASE -4 SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be different as indicated in the previous table. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 4
  • 5. URBAN PROFILES OF SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 2000 (Cumulative percentage of total population in localities by size) 80 70 60 Mexico 50 Brazil Argentina 40 Colombia 30 Peru Chile 20 Bolivia 10 Uruguay 0 50-500 thousand inhabitants 500 thousand to one million One million or more inhabitants inhabitants SOURCE:Author´s calculations with data from CELADE CEPAL. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 5
  • 6. POPULATION IN SELECTED CITIES AND METROPOLITAN ZONES OF LATIN AMERICA Country, city, date Population Country, city, date Population (millions) (millions) Argentina: Buenos Aires (1991) 2.96 Ecuador: Guayaquil (2003) 2.09 Córdoba (1991) 1.16 Quito (2003) 1.48 Pop. Bolivia: Santa Cruz (2005) 1.34 Guatemala: Guatemala (2001) 1.02 growth Pop. % of La Paz (2005) 0.83 Haiti: Port au Prince (2007) 0.99 City size No. 1990- (106) pop. 2000 Brazl: Belo Horizonte (2005) 2.40 Mexico: Acapulco (2003) 0.82 (%) Brasilia (2005) 2.38 Guadalajara (2003) 3.94 50,000 – 602 87.7 18.7 2.5 Salvador (2005) 2.71 Mexico City (2003) 19.49 500,000 Rio de Janeiro (2005) 6.14 Monterrey (2003) 3.52 500,000 – 43 31.5 6.3 3.4 Sao Paulo 11.02 Panama: Panama City (2000) 0.48 1million Chile: Santiago (2004) 4.98 Paraguay: Asunción (2002) 0.51 More Colombia: Bogotá 7.19 Perú: Lima (2003) 7.08 than 1 49 159.1 32.7 2.7 million Cali (2005) 2.42 Uruguay: Montevideo (2005) 1.35 Sum 694 278.3 57.7 2.6 Cartagena (2005) 1.03 Venezuela: Caracas (1998) 1.98 Medellín (2005) 2.09 Maracaibo (1998) 1.71 Costa Rica: San José (2003) 0.33 Valencia (1998) 1.23 Source: Prepared with data from e United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook 2005, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/products/dyb/dyb2005.htm LARGE DIVERSITY ALSO IN DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE, ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES, SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS, CULTURE, SPATIAL FEATURES, SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE, ENVIRONMENTAL CONSTRAINTS, ETC. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 6
  • 7. MEXICO: POPULATION UNDER DIFFERENT POVERTY LINES BY SIZE OF LOCALITIES, 2000-2002 Extreme poverty Intermediate poverty Moderate poverty 7.4 9.1 14 16.5 2.9 3.5 4.6 2.9 16.2 13.2 7.5 7.2 Localities with less than 15 thousand inhabitants Localities with more than 15 thousand inhabitants 2000 2002 2000 2002 SOURCE: Author’s calculations with data from SEDESOL. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 7
  • 8. URBAN POPULATION PROSPECTS UP TO 2050 FOR SELECTED LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES 250 Brazil 200 35.37 150 Mexico 100 26.90 Colombia 50 11.31 Argentina Chile 4.21 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 8
  • 9. MOREOVER… • Predominant role of cities for development of countries and subnational regions • Global and international effects – Internationaly agreed goals and commitments • Numerous and diverse actors and stakeholders – Levels of government – Private sector in different industries – Diverse population groups • Considerable lags and long-term consequences IMPLICATION: AN EVEN GREATER AND MORE DIFFICULT PROBLEM ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 9
  • 10. AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST: • Incomplete knowledge and information – Limited undestanding hinders adequate actions and complicates coordination – Uncertainty and credibility challenges EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND LEARNING-AS-WE-GO ARE NECESSARY ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 10
  • 11. EXTRAORDINARY COMPLEXITY MORE INFO • Sustainable development is needed in three dimensions: – Economic, social and environmental • Very large number of issues – Inter-relationships – Systemic problems • Combined natural, technical, social, behavioral, financial and governance phenomena – Inter-disciplinary matters • Difficult to visualize, understand for individuals and single organizations – Policy making and implementation challenges ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 11
  • 12. WHICH IMPLIES… • A multistakeholder endeavor – Private sector, society, public sector, academic and research institutions • Open government • Social learning • No one-size-fits-all – Remarkable diversity of national and local conditions • Policy coherence and coordination – Across sectors • Whole of government – Across levels of government • Multilevel governance ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 12
  • 13. INTERVENTION FEATURES • Policy packages – Relevant, effective, efficient, participatory, equitable • Trust, partnerships and ownership building • Fundamentally anchored in local challenges – Selectivity, with an integral systems perspective • High impact • Cost effective – Locally and nationally – Engaging all types of stakeholders in decision and policy making, implementation, monitoring and evaluation • National and sub-national governments • Private sector and society • Research and academic institutions – Legal and regulatory, policy and programs, infrastructure and private investment, capacity building, awareness raising – Regional or territorial development approach, and comparative actions – Graduality, with a long-term plan ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 13
  • 14. SOME VALUABLE CONTRIBUTIONS 1. Leadership and mobilization of actors and stakeholders – Awareness raising, advocacy, prioritization 2. Technical assistance to strategy-making – Participatory planning 3. Production of toolkits – Databases, indicators – Knowledge repositories, good practices – Model legislation – Planning and budgeting – Training to government and non-government actors 4. Policy advice – Multilevel governance, open government, whole-of goverment – Sustainable production and consumption • Water, energy, emmissions and residuals, transport, housing, ICT • Management of natural resources – Public finance • Budgeting for goals, regional infrastructure, local taxation, transfers – Public-Private-People-Partnerships – Innovation 5. Financial resources – Modernization of the State and public administration – Public and private infrastructure – Private sector development – Social development ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 14
  • 15. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS • Multiple entry points • Flagship initiatives • Attention to all dimensions of sustainable development • Local, national and global priority goals • Engagement of non-State actors • Utmost importance of open government priority • Anticorruption END OF PRESENTATION ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 15
  • 17. AMÉRICA LATINA: TASA DE CRECIMIENTO DE LA POBLACION TOTAL, URBANA Y RURAL LATIN AMERICA: POPULATION GROWTH RATE, TOTAL, URBAN AND RURAL 1950-2000 Tasa de crecimiento anual (por cien)/ Diferencial de crecimiento Annual growth rates (percent) Tasa de urbanización / Urbano-Rural / Urban-Rural Urbanization rate Growth differential Total / Total Urbano / Urban Rural / Rural Argentina 1.5 2.2 -1.0 0.7 3.2 Belice / Belize 2.5 2.2 2.8 -0.3 -0.6 Bolivia 2.0 3.2 0.9 1.2 2.3 Brasil / Brazil 2.4 4.0 -0.1 1.6 4.0 Colombia 2.2 3.2 0.7 1.0 2.6 Costa Rica 3.1 4.2 2.1 1.1 2.1 Cuba 1.7 2.1 -0.1 0.4 2.3 Chile 1.9 2.6 -0.3 0.7 2.9 Ecuador 2.6 4.1 1.4 1.5 2.7 El Salvador 2.4 3.3 1.8 0.8 1.4 Guatemala 2.6 3.8 2.0 1.2 1.8 Guyana / Guiana 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.7 Guayana Francesa / French Guiana 4.7 4.3 2.5 -0.4 1.9 Haití / Haiti 2.0 3.9 1.2 2.0 2.8 Honduras 3.0 3.8 2.6 0.8 1.2 Jamaica 1.2 2.8 0.3 1.5 2.5 México / Mexico 2.7 3.8 1.0 1.1 2.8 Nicaragua 3.2 4.1 2.4 0.9 1.8 Panamá / Panama 2.4 3.7 1.2 1.2 2.5 Paraguay 2.6 3.6 1.7 1.0 1.9 Perú / Peru 2.4 3.7 0.9 1.3 2.7 Surinam 1.7 2.3 -0.1 0.6 2.3 Uruguay 0.6 1.0 -1.6 0.4 2.6 República Dominicana / Dominican Republic 2.6 4.5 1.2 1.9 3.3 República Bolivariana de Venezuela / Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 3.0 4.2 0.3 1.2 4.0 ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 17 Fuente: Base de datos DEPUALC, 2000. Boletín demográfico Nos 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. Demographic Bulletin No 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
  • 18. AMÉRICA LATINA: PORCENTAJE DE POBLACIÓN URBANA, POR PAÍSES LATIN AMERICA: PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION, BY COUNTRIES 1950-2000 Porcentaje urbano (por cien) / Urban porcentage (per cent) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Argentina 62.5 73.8 79.0 83.0 87.3 90.5 Belice / Belize 56.5 53.8 51.2 49.3 47.6 47.9 Bolivia 33.9 39.3 41.7 50.5 57.5 62.4 Brasil / Brazil 36.5 43.0 55.9 67.6 78.4 81.2 Colombia 42.7 52.1 59.1 67.2 71.0 74.9 Costa Rica 33.5 34.5 40.6 44.5 46.8 59.0 Cuba 55.1 54.9 60.7 69.0 73.6 75.2 Chile 60.7 68.2 75.1 82.2 83.5 86.6 Ecuador 28.5 35.3 41.4 49.0 55.1 61.4 El Salvador 36.5 38.5 39.5 41.6 50.4 58.4 Guatemala 25.0 33.6 36.4 32.7 35.0 46.1 Guyana / Guiana 28.1 29.0 29.5 30.6 33.2 36.2 Guayana Francesa / French Guiana 52.0 63.6 67.3 70.6 74.4 75.0 Haití / Haiti 12.2 15.6 20.2 24.5 29.5 35.6 Honduras 31.0 30.4 37.2 38.7 47.5 45.5 Jamaica 26.7 33.8 41.5 46.8 51.5 52.1 México / Mexico 36.2 43.7 51.4 58.4 65.6 74.7 Nicaragua 34.9 40.9 47.7 50.3 54.4 56.1 Panamá / Panama 36.0 41.5 47.6 50.4 53.7 65.6 Paraguay 34.6 35.8 37.1 42.8 50.3 58.7 Perú / Peru 35.3 47.4 59.5 65.2 70.1 72.8 Surinam 47.0 47.2 46.0 54.9 65.4 74.1 Uruguay 78.0 81.0 83.3 87.3 90.8 91.9 República Dominicana / Dominican Republic 23.9 30.5 39.7 52.0 56.1 58.2 República Bolivariana de Venezuela / Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 53.7 67.4 77.2 84.0 84.4 86.9 Fuente: Base deVILLARREAL ROBERTO datos DEPUALC, 2000. Boletín demográfico Nos 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. 1/17/2013 18 Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. Demographic Bulletin No 56 y 63. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
  • 19. AMÉRICA LATINA: CIUDADES DE 1 MILLÓN Y MÁS HABITANTES, SEGÚN CANTIDAD DE CIUDADES Y POBLACIÓN LATIN AMERICA: CITIES WITH ONE MILLION AND MORE INHABITANTS, BY NUMBER OF CITIES AND POPULATION 1950-2000 Población que reside en ciudades de 1 millón y más habitantes (en Número de ciudades de 1 millón y más habitantes / miles) / Population living in cities of one million and more inhabitants (in Number of cities with one million and more inhabitants thousands) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Argentina 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 747 6 807 8 462 10 986 13 574 14 575 Bolivia 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 119 2 534 Brasil / Brazil 2 3 6 9 13 16 5 360 9 611 20 181 33 408 45 845 61 111 Colombia 0 1 3 4 4 4 1 683 5 371 8 576 10 502 11 685 Costa Rica 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cuba 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 224 1 147 1 787 1 929 2 111 2 187 Chile 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 437 2 072 2 792 3 920 4 729 5 392 Ecuador 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 249 2 692 3 559 El Salvador 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 043 1 959 Guatemala 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 014 1 203 1 632 2 149 Haití / Haiti 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 134 1 767 Honduras 0 0 0 0 0 0 México / Mexico 1 1 3 3 4 7 3 354 5 466 11 732 18 284 21 805 29 365 Nicaragua 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 009 Panamá / Panama 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 069 Paraguay 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 177 1 613 Perú / Peru 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 846 3 303 4 608 6 321 7 454 República Dominicana / 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 313 1 610 2 148 Dominican Republic Uruguay 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 140 1 310 1 402 1 511 1 591 … República Bolivariana de Venezuela / Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela 0 1 1 1 3 4 1 372 2 184 2 640 5 155 7 962 … Información no disponible en el CELADE. This information is not available in CELADE. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 Fuente: Base de datos DEPUALC, 2004. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision. 19 Source: DEPUALC 2004 data base, CELADE/ECLAC. UN World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision.
  • 20. AMÉRICA LATINA: NUMERO DE CIUDADES, Y DE HABITANTES, PORCENTAJE DE LA POBLACIÓN TOTAL Y CRECIMIENTO ANUAL, POR TAMAÑO DE LAS CIUDADES, 2000 RETURN Ciudades de 50mil a 500 mil Población Total habitantes Ciudades de 500 mil a 1 millón habitantes Ciudades de 1 Millón o más habitantes % Pob NH TMCA NC NH Tot TMCA NC NH %Pob Tot TMCA NC NH(miles) %Pob Tot TMCA Argentina 36260130 1.0 52 7498538 20.7 2.2 3 2810704 7.8 0.9 3 14575 40.2 0.7 Belice … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Bolivia 8273344 2.7 10 1631398 19.2 4.2 1 517026 6.2 -3.2 2 2534 30.6 12.6 Brasil 169799170 1.5 201 32655979 19.2 1.9 8 5907246 3.4 -0.9 16 61111 36.0 3.3 Colombia 41468384 1.9 52 7299186 17.5 2.7 4 2956435 7.1 3.9 4 11685 28.1 1.1 Costa Rica 3809879 2.8 6 577751 15.1 14.1 1 900835 23.6 2.5 0 0 0.0 0.0 Cuba* 9723605 1.1 15 1955809 20.1 2.5 0 0 0.0 0.0 1 2187 22.5 0.4 Chile 15116435 1.2 27 3555100 23.5 2.7 2 1482090 9.8 0.9 1 5392 35.7 1.4 Ecuador 12070115 2.0 17 2217219 18.4 3.6 0 0 0.0 0.0 2 3559 29.5 El Salvador* 5118599 1.8 4 481026 9.4 5.3 0 0 0.0 0.0 1 1959 38.3 8.7 Guatemala 11237196 3.5 5 408964 3.6 17.5 1 735530 6.5** … 1 2149 19.1 3.1 Guyana … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Guayana Francesa … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Haití 5053791 1.4 1 64406 1.3 -18.6 1 724002 14.3 … 1 1767 35.0 5.5 Honduras 6535344 3.0 9 1101890 16.8 6.9 1 819867 12.5 3.2 0 0 0.0 0.0 Jamaica … … … … … … … … … … … … … … México 97483412 1.8 105 15567843 16.0 0.2 13 9151290 9.4 5.6 7 29365 30.1 3.4 Nicaragua … … … … … … … … … … 1 1009 … … Panamá 2688405 1.4 3 242357 9.0 2.5 1 844532 31.4** 3.2 1 1069 39.8 Paraguay 5183101 2.2 3 355599 6.8 3.8 0 0 0.0 0.0 1 1613 31.1 3.7 Perú 22048356 2.2 26 3603736 16.3 1.2 2 1118974 5.0 … 1 7454 33.8 1.8 República Dominicana 8500173 1.7 14 1416180 16.7 0.3 1 507418 6.0 … 1 2148 25.3 3.3 Surinam … … … … … … … … … … … … … … Uruguay 3241003 0.3 6 428173 13.2 2.3 0 0 0.0 0.0 1 1591 49.1 0.5 República Bolivariana de Venezuela 23054210 2.2 46 6282109 27.2 1.6 4 3065593 13.3 6.4 4 7962 34.5 5.4 TOTAL 486664652 2.6 602 87343263 18.7 2.5 43 31541542 6.3 3.4 49 159130 32.7 2.7 NOTA 1. NH: Número de habitantes, año 2000; NC: número de ciudades, año 2000; TMCA: Tasa media de crecimiento anual, por cien, 1990-2000; TMCA: Tasa media de crecimiento anual, por cien, 1990-2000; % Pob Tot: porcentaje de la población total, por cien, año 2000. Los años mencionados varían para algunos países, como se indica en la Nota 2. NOTA 2. Los datos de población se refien al último año del período que se indica enseguida para cada país, y las tasa medias de crecimiento se calcularon para el promedio del período: Argentina,1991-2001; Bolivia,1992-2001; Brasil, 1991-2000; Colombia,1993-2005; Costa Rica, 1984-2000; Cuba, 1970-1981; Chile:1992-2002; Ecuador, 1991-2001; El salvador, 1971- 1992; Guatemala, 1994-2002; Haití, 1971-1982; Honduras, 1988-2001; Paraguay, 1992-2002; Panamá, 1990-2000; Perú, 1981-1992; República Dominicana, 1993-2002; Uruguay, 1996- 2004; Venezuela, 1991-2002. * Los datos de estos países exhiben una obsolecencia notable: Cuba, 1981 (excepto el dato para la ciudad de más de 1 millón de habitantes que corresponde a 2000); El Salvador, 1992; Haití, 1982. ** En Guatemala hay 1 ciudad de más de 500 mil habitantes, pero el último dato de población de la misma se refiere a 1964. asimismo, en Panamá, los datos se refieren a 1990 (dada la alta tasa de urbanización registrada entonces es improbable que la población de la ciudad haya decrecido subsecuentemente, como erróneamente indican los datos disponibles para 2000). ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 20 Lo mismo ocurre en Uruguay, donde el último dato disponible es para 1991. Fuente: Cálculos propios, con información de CEPAL, Centro Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Demografía (CELADE).
  • 21. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION IN MORE INO LATIN AMERICA, 1950-2000 (%) RETURN 3 RURAL Belize Honduras French Guyana 2.5 Nicaragua Guatemala Costa Rica 2 El Salvador 1.5 Paraguay Ecuador Panama Dominican Rep Haiti 1 Mexico Guyana Bolivia Peru Colombia 0.5 Jamaica Venezuela 0 URBAN Cuba Surinam Brazil 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 -0.5 Chile -1 Argentina -1.5 Uruguay -2 SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be different as indicated in the previous table. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 21
  • 22. URBAN POPULATION IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1950-2000MORE INO (% OF TOTAL) RETURN 1950 1980 2000 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be different as indicated in the previous table. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 22
  • 23. POPULATION IN CITIES LARGER THAN ONE MILLION INHABITANTS IN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES, 1990-2000 RETURN (Millions) 1990 2000 30 45.8 61.1 25 20 15 10 5 0 SOURCE: Prepared with data from the DEPUALCdatabase.. For some countries the period used for calculations may be different as indicated in the previous table. ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 23
  • 24. DIVERSE ISSUES RELATED TO THE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT MORE INFO ECONOMIC SOCIAL ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSION DIMENSION DIMENSION Income growth Poverty eradication Decreasing rents from natural resources Income distribution Equity and social cohesion Private property rights Competitiveness Acceptance of diversity Adaptation to climate change, energy efficiency Risks management Safety and social protection Prevention of natural disasters, resilience Population size and skills Labor force participation and training Green production and consumption Investment and finance Savings Conservation Knowledge and innovation Education Environmental education and research Space Land planning and use Clean, safe and permanent natl. environ. Markets private goods & services Basic needs Treated water, pollution control Labor markets Decent employment Green jobs Public government services Citizenship Environmental ombudsman Public infrastructure services Inclusion Environmental services Public social services Empowerement Public property rights Public regulation and enforcement Compliance with rule of law Environmental protection Public accountability Democratization Social oversight Public finance Anticorruption Environmental taxes and subsidies Public governance Participation Intertemporal intergenerational links Public information Media Public georeferenced ICT systems ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 24
  • 25. SYSTEMS APPROACH MORE INO + + Social & RETURN economic Law enforcement equity Economic + and efficiency gains - (water & sanitation, education, health, anticorruption Social gender, and - etc.) Solidarity Safety - economic inequality Institutional + Effective freedoms, protection of of people Human Social and rights and adaptive development economic capacity property (income,health, education; - - exclusion Social and political + Crime leadership & Social adjusted for Decent prevention inequality) employment + participation cohesion + (all social + Public + ROR + groups) Poverty - governance Rule + + Social Tax and public expenditure human capital Social - of Law + and economic policies protection + capital Productivity, and family + and business features Energy Alternatives + Political + -labor efficiency to support stability regulations Policies livelihoods of on cost of the poor Preparedness for + + + living Primary sources - Energy use - + natural disasters (quantity) - Products & processes choice + Global + + Clean energy technology + climate Sustainable change and safe Economy natural Degradation Pollution + environment + - and mgt. of (air, waters ecosystems - and soils - Population, l abor force + + Recycling and + + + reutilization Natural Biodiversity stocks (renewable + and non- Savings and investment, public and Production costs, investment renewable resources) + private debt allocation Food, public health ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 25
  • 26. MORE INO RETURN Energy efficiency Primary + sources - Energy use (quantity) Products & processes + + Global - choice Clean energy + technology climate Sustainable and safe change + Economy natural Degradation Pollution + environment (air, waters Population, l - and mgt. of ecosystems + abor force - and soils - + Recycling and + + reutilization Natural Biodiversity stocks (renewable + Savings and and non- renewable investment, resources) public and private debt Production costs, investment allocation Food, publi c health GREEN ECONOMY ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 26
  • 27. INCLUSSIVE AND EQUITABLE MORE INO + SOCIETY Social & economic RETURN equity Economic (water & sanitation, efficiency gains - education, health, gender, Social and - etc.) - economic inequality Human Social and development economic (income, health, education; - - exclusion adjusted for Decent inequality) employment + (all social groups) Tax and public ROR + Poverty expenditure policies human capital Social - protection Productivity, and family and features business - labor regulations Policies + + on cost of living - Economy + Population, l abor force + Savings and ROBERTO VILLARREAL investment, public and 1/17/2013 27 private debt
  • 28. INSTITUTIONS FOR RESILIENCE AND RETURN PUBLIC GOVERNANCE Social & economic + Law equity enforcement (water & sanitation, + and anticorruption education, health, gender, etc.) Solidarity Effective Safety Institutional adaptive + freedoms, protection of rights of people and capacity property Social and political leadership & + Social Crime participation prevention cohesion + + Public + governance + + Social Rule of and Law economic capital + Political + stability Preparedness for natural disasters + + Sustainable and safe natural environment ROBERTO VILLARREAL 1/17/2013 28