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1 October Daily Technical Trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index failed to make any further headway toward the 9,650.0
level and declined by 18 points (-0.19%) to close at 9,608.32. The
index is currently trading close to the support of the 21-day moving
average (currently at 9,603.59). If the index penetrates below this
level on a closing basis, bears may take control of the trend and may
pull it toward 9,550.0. On the flip side, if the index manages to hold on
to the 21-day moving average, it may advance higher.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
UDCD breached below the support of QR21.70 yesterday. The stock
momentarily moved above the QR21.70 level, but failed to cling on to
it and retreated. This area poses a hurdle for UDCD which it must
overcome in order to move higher, until then the up move remains in
jeopardy. We believe the stock may correct from the current level and
test the 21-day moving average (currently at QR21.31). On the other
hand, a move above QR21.70 on a closing basis may attract buyers.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index slipped marginally by around 4 points (-0.13%) to
close the session at 2,758.17. The index after witnessing a bullish
move on Sunday, failed to sustain above the 2,760.96 level, and
penetrated below it as sellers proved to be more dominant. However,
the index needs to cling on to its support of the 21-day moving
average on a closing basis in order to avoid any further fall.
Conversely, a move above 2,760.96 may indicate a false breakdown.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
WDAM penetrated below the key supports of the ascending trendline
and QR51.90, declining around 0.77%. The stock has
underperformed over the past few days and may head lower to test
support at the 21-day moving average (currently at QR51.22).
Moreover, the RSI is drifting lower from the midline and is showing no
immediate reversal signs, thus supporting our bearish view. However,
if the stock reclaims QR51.90 it may halt its down move.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pull Back
GISS dipped below its important supports of QR51.0 and QR50.40 in
a single swoop. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakdown
which is a negative sign. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish
engulfing candle pattern yesterday indicating a likely correction. With
both the RSI and MACD lines pointing lower, it seems GISS may drift
lower and test QR49.0. Thus, the preferred direction for the stock
appears downward, until QR50.40 is not breached on a closing basis.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back
IQCD continued to move higher and did not weaken even after the
market turbulence. The stock tested its support near the QR148.18
level yesterday, but quickly rebounded as buyers stepped in and
offset the weakness. We anticipate the stock to move above the
QR150.30 level targeting the 21-day moving average (currently at
QR150.94). Moreover, both the momentum indicators support a
higher move, thus supporting our bullish outlook for the stock.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 9,608.32 UP DOWN 9,500.00 9,440.00 10,200.00 10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 2,758.17 UP DOWN 2,700.00 2,600.00 2,950.00 3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 28.75 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.20 31.40 33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.40 UP DOWN 63.90 62.40 84.20 87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 53.80 UP UP 42.00 39.50 57.14 58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 68.70 UP FLAT 65.00 64.30 78.50 79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 55.80 DOWN FLAT 47.90 45.00 60.80 61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 60.00 FLAT FLAT 58.50 57.00 62.30 63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 34.55 DOWN FLAT 32.00 31.00 43.90 45.00
Consumer Goods and Services
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)* 51.80 DOWN UP 47.50 46.70 69.10 78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 132.00 FLAT FLAT 129.90 128.50 134.50 136.00
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 149.90 DOWN DOWN 144.10 142.00 175.20 176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 157.80 UP FLAT 140.00 132.10 172.00 174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 50.10 UP UP 30.50 29.50 54.00 55.90
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 29.00 UP UP 20.36 20.00 31.80 33.50
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 25.00 DOWN FLAT 22.80 19.50 29.25 29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 21.69 DOWN FLAT 17.06 16.00 25.30 25.90
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 139.80 UP UP 108.00 98.10 146.00 148.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 9.02 DOWN DOWN 8.50 8.24 9.98 10.20
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.01 DOWN DOWN 15.08 14.52 21.15 21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD) 80.30 UP UP 58.20 56.70 84.90 86.50