the balance of exports and imports onions, scenario prices for the first half of 2014 (new)

17 December, 2013
Development forecast of prices in Ukraine at 2014 season (two scenarios).
Prospects of evolution market of fresh and chilled onions in Ukraine.
Review export-import activity of countries which
typically produce & consumer the onion.

Area - Total 41,543 km2 (135th) 16,039 sq mi
Population - 2014 estimate 16,819,595
Netherlands
Area - Total 603,628 km2 (46th) 233,090 sq mi
Population - 2012 estimate 44,854,065
Ukraine
Netherlands 14.5 times less than Ukraine in
area and 2.65 times smaller in population.
List of countries by onion production
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a list of countries by onion production in 2008 mostly based on
FAOSTAT FAO accessed in August 2010. Production by country >400,000 t
Rank Country/Region
Onion production
(tonnes)
1 People's Republic of China 20817295
2 India 8178300
3 United States 3349170
4 Pakistan 2015200
5 Turkey 2007120
6 Iran 1849275
7 Egypt 1728417
8 Russia 1712500
9 Brazil 1299815
10 Mexico 1252441
11 Japan 1165000
12 Netherlands 1130000
13 Spain 1098400
14 Ukraine 1049200
15 South Korea 1035076
16 Bangladesh 889
17 Indonesia 824
18 Myanmar 740
19 Uzbekistan 728
20 Algeria 700
21 Argentina 700
22 Morocco 662
23 Peru 634
24 Nigeria 621
25 Poland 618
26 Germany 408

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Netherlands T 970167 1184508 1222307 1517522 1336441 1245456
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Netherlands T 145050 138300 177061 165614 198846 166412
Reporting Countries Export Statistics (Partner Country: World)
Commodity: 070310, Onions And Shallots, Fresh Or Chilled
Annual Series: 2007 - 2012
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting Countries Import Statistics (Partner Country: World)
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
• Net exporter.
• Increasing trend in exports (6 years).
• Stable trend in imports.
• Import occupies a niche of seasonal
onion of the next season & fresh crop.
• Minimum difference 825 117 t in 2007.
The average export 15 867 т per week.
• Maximum difference 1351908 t in 2010.
The average export 26 000 т per week.
• Ideal for creating a special system
exporters –operators (many small
producers).
• Optimally to build long-term
relationships in the chain:
growers - long-term storage -
packing - export.
• Ideal for long-term relations in the
system of «net packaged weight after
the sale“.
• Working model «effective 5 year cycle»
with a positive difference of value
added relative to the cost of growing.
• The state does not interfere in the
domestic market pricing, the political
situation is stable, stimulated the
growing, production good quality
package and export.
Onion import-export in Holland
min
max

Onion export – import in India & China
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
India T 899434 1546801 1830696 1364337 1080584 1619313
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
India T 104 89 444 5594 7111 450
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China T 645322 545043 525906 644596 742095 620113
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China T 651 6117 2405 5043 353 141
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
• India & China net exporters.
• Increasing trend in exports (6 years).
• Stable trend in imports. Much more area and population then in Holland.   
• Import occupies a niche offer seasonal onion of the next season & fresh crop (Similarly, as in the
Netherlands.).
• A huge population and political motives (consumer basket, inflation, other) make stimulate production in the
amount many times greater than their own consumption. For India in 2013 season possible another picture,
but this is an exception to the rules associated with weather factors.
Export Year China
Min diff, t 2009 523501
Max diff, t 2012 741742
Export Year India
Min diff, t 2007 899330
Max diff, t 2009 1830252

Onion import-export in Canada! & South Korea
• Canada & South Korea net importers.
• Increasing trend in imports only Canada (6 years).
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Canada T 76169 77979 41598 58774 29963 38735
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Canada T 154773 146366 162281 162039 178332 175595
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South
Korea T 28463 37339 22727 18848 15590 42479
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
South
Korea T 1462 1 8900 3827 766 947
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Import Year Canada
Min diff, t 2008 65387
Max diff, t 2010 103265
Import South Korea
Min diff, t 2009 13827
Max diff, t 2012 41532
• Price chart repeats the tendency import graphics in Canada. Information received from http://www.agr.gc.ca
• Despite the rather low volume of imports (relative to the domestic production in the country) curves never
intersect.

• Net exporter.
• It has been a traditional supplier of
onions for Ukraine (and Russia) the last
20 years in certain periods (stable until
2007).
• It has worked as a "gate" for Ukraine
and Russia from Europe. Companies
imported onion from Holland, changed
invoices and sent to Russia and Ukraine
as a Polish onion. Very clearly seen in
the curves.
• Minimum difference 11424 t in 2010
(year of drought and high prices).
• Maximum difference 72392 t in 2009
(before the year of drought, start
swinging "pendulum«) .
Both the falling trend line. Two reasons:
- The country joined the European Union.
Manufacturer profitable show "complete"
the sale price for the VAT refund. The
emergence of the "new gate" - Latvia.
- After the 2008 financial crisis, late ,but
began to appear large projects for the
production of vegetables in Russia and
Ukraine. Poland's role began to diminish.
Onion export-import in Poland
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poland T 117844 143818 123295 118969 114988 122166
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poland T 82562 78769 50903 107545 89501 59384
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity

• Net importer. But…. ???
• A trend line is falling rapidly. The last
peak imports fall on arid 2010.
• Minimum difference 224420 t in 2012.
(I am confident that 2013 will be even
less value).
• Maximum difference 615486 t in 2007
(Long enough, in 2010 reflected on the
curves, but did not change the direction
of the trend line.. ).
• Is It possible that some part of the
onion pass customs clearance?
Yes. But it's definitely part of it.
• Is it possible that invoice prices not
correspond to the real?
Sure. But we do not consider the price
of Russia. Only trends.
• Is this information important for Ukraine?
Sure. Ability to export from Russia to
Ukraine emerged today.
Curves intersect in the future. Perhaps in two years,
may be in three. Opportunities to invest in growing
vegetables and construction of storage facilities are
available in Russia. Last week information about the
new storage in Rostov on 36,000 tons of onions was
received three times.
Onion import-export in Russia.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russia T 225 16269 43150 732 8628 355
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Russia T 615711 457603 370802 576217 456600 224775
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity

• Net exporter? Net importer? Who?
• The first country in the World, which
makes early prediction of volume
production and prices for onions and
enables each growers to participate in
«casino».
• First look says Ukraine as part of the
Soviet Union, which should consume
significant amounts of onions. There is
an opportunity to grow - grow all those
who have money and land.
Onion import/export in Ukraine.
2013* Information should be checked
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000
Ukraine TOTAL (without forecast)
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Import Year Ukraine
2008 32712
2010 40309
2011 20094
Diff
Export Year Ukraine
2007 66077
2009 57530
2012 17645
2013 50219
Diff

Analysis of export-import activity depending on prices
(actual information).
• For curve (next slide), I used information on the average price per
month.
• I use the average monthly price for EXW conditions on the mesh-bag 25
kg on pallets from the grower (packer) in the Kherson region.
• My goal - to determine the law of price changes, compared with the
dynamics of export-import, build a forecast for the next six months (a
year).
• Prior to the 2007 season - as a rule sold domestic production onion until
February, since February - import onions. Import quality is always higher
then Ukrainian quality . Since 2007 - the «pendulum» begins to swing.
• Price of the last three months created is artificially. No objective reasons
for a higher price than in the 2010 season (drought), except for one -
greed.
• I propose to consider two scenarios (9 and 10), which depend on the
actual volume of onion in long-term storage.

Onion years average price in Ukraine actual/import-export
activity.
Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec UAH/kg
2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16
2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00
2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72
2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88
2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67
2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42
2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65
2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83
2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 5,80 3,17
the highest price in the world (last season - the lowest)

Forecast onions prices to 2014 (1 scenario, total deficit).
2014*FORECAST
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781 36000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000 72000
Ukraine TOTAL(First scenario)
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16
2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00
2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72
2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88
2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67
2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42
2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65
2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83
2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 6,30 3,22
2014 7,00 8,00 9,00 9,00 10,00 11,00 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 5,00
• Price continues to grow from month to month in all countries. Inventories are very small. The price of imported onion does
not regulate the price of the domestic market. The situation is worse than the drought of 2010. Be able to import «only»
20,000 tons at the beginning of the year.
• Growing onion become even more attractive business for «smart» people and in season 2014 ALL begin to grow onions.
• By year end, the lowest price will provide an opportunity to export up to 72,000 tons (if there are means to collect and pack).
Government is happy - back low prices, exports are growing, the budget is filled.
• Probability of this scenario (my opinion) - not more than 20%. If in January will be prolonged frosts over - 12-15⁰ Celsius - the
probability will rise considerably. (or India buy a large amount of onions in Europe?).
• Very favorable for companies that sell seeds.   

Forecast onions prices to 2014 (2 scenario, postponed proposal).
2014* FORECAST
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781 30000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*
Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000 30000
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
Ukraine TOTAL (second scenario)
Reporting
Country Unit
Quantity
2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16
2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00
2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72
2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88
2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67
2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42
2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65
2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83
2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 6,30 3,22
2014 5,00 4,80 4,80 5,00 5,20 5,60 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 3,03
• Volumes in the storage onion underestimated. Highest price in December and January.
• February, March and April - the price decreases (the first signs have already appeared).
• With the increasing cost of storing the most profitable for growers are December and January.
• Sell need right now.
• Despite the expected price decline attention to the onions grow anyway and ..... repeated in 2012. Low prices.
• Long live EXPORT!
• Probability of this scenario (my opinion) - more than 80%. If you enter the market with a great offer - the price can quickly
collapse. If it does not make "Green Team" - someone else will do.
• Again it is very favorable for companies that sell seeds.   
• If you add the growth of the dollar - the profit decline at all and about 8.3 UAH 1 USD will remain a sweet memory.

Basic results of the analysis of import and export activity in Ukraine
2007-2013 year
• In any case, the completion in 2014 - growth of volume growing, no fixed role of Ukraine (net exporter or a net
importer) and ... very low prices (repeat of the 2012 season) with an increase in administrative pressure
before the elections in 2015.
• Substantial cash loss will come next year for all participants onion market (growers, storage,
packers, wholesalers, retailers) due to constant pressure on the price and the low base for gross
profit.
• The impact of political factors on the export market (the EU ore Customs Union), opening date
"export window».
• Slow concentration in production will occur in the most efficient producers, who can get the
highest yield at a relatively high quality ( & low cost).
Canadian «surprise»
• Net importer Canada - a big surprise for me! Leading the search for onion harvesting system with "green
neck" for long-term storage, I stumbled to the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_tuNHqxWg &
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbUSkF91Rkw (I highly recommend to look!).
• I do not believe that Canadian farmers can not grow (and store) the amount of onions, sufficient (or excess)
for their own consumption.
• I do not have contacts in Canada, I do not know specifics of its policy of the Agrarian Ministry and the specific
price formation in the market. At the moment I can not get reliable information on these matters.
• My assumption - after a sharp decline in average prices in 2008 (twice - not four times, as in Ukraine) certain
system actions allowed Canada to regulate the production for the domestic market and increase the average
annual price. Past four years, the price became stable and sufficient to provide added value for growers
(warehousing, packers). Consumption deficit is compensated by imports.
• This issue requires further in-depth study.

Probable strategic development of the company as a growers
of onions in Ukraine.
• Cost of growing (onion lies in store)
• 1 - the average cost in the south of
Ukraine (including drip irrigation)
• 2 - average cost efficient economy in
the south of Ukraine (including drip
irrigation)
• 3 - for the cost of the necessary value
added (there are examples in the
central part of Ukraine on the upper
watering).
• Stable operation for at least 5 years
with a constant accumulation of
positive experiences and decrease the
cost of growing - the path to a
successful enterprise.
• «Dutch scenario» (consolidation of uniform packaged products and
successful sale) can not be implemented in Ukraine (undefined role -
the importer or exporter?).
• Only its own efficient farm with full process and cost management
can fill their own long-term storage and will be able to generate
added value.
• In any other case - growers will dictate pricing conditions in the
domestic market. Domestic market price determines the possibilities
for export activity.
• Reduced consumer ability, political games, conservative way of mind
does not allow retailers to fully realize the concept of quality Q1, Q2,
Q3.
• Concentration production in a limited range of efficient farms use
control mechanisms growing volumes (Canada Way?) - possibility
of strategic development onion market.

Analysis of the annual average contribution margin, depending on the
source model (using ISO curves onion 2013-2014, annex 3)
100,5% 38,0%
• Contribution margin 38% - (See Annex 4) - quite risky to achieve strategic
results for the period of 5-8 years
• Contribution margin 100,5% - (See Annex 5) - the most successful way to
develop a profitable enterprise in the future the next 5-8 years

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reporting Total T 6795082 6366322
Netherlands T 970167 1184508 1222307 1517522 1336441 1245456
India T 899434 1546801 1830696 1364337 1080584 1619313
China T 645322 545043 525906 644596 742095 620113
Egypt T 201235 247025 235151 512467 490922 361468
Mexico T 288473 279989 311549 327432 370135 374710
United States T 291876 320837 283208 360830 355905 332167
Spain (Customs) T 253981 267752 274450 224023 259032 255964
Argentina T 217202 202597 189598 240931 210956 146889
Peru T 86130 71748 100449 165180 177432 161133
New Zealand T 188322 164534 129456 177629 132649 164770
Turkey T 180058 213692 135521 95341 121576 140469
Poland T 117844 143818 123295 118969 114988 122166
France (Customs) T 64684 83926 83820 112302 110020 99752
Germany (Customs) T 68484 78081 81094 102621 86858 82599
Chile T 67357 88727 34216 83979 85993 36364
Iran T 83053 66614 131040 71969 152216
Thailand T 77637 60634 42947 48945 70552 43884
Austria (Customs) T 41817 37562 52128 44609 61341 73751
Australia T 50248 46601 51137 48333 58985 61968
Belgium T 56102 42133 53756 40542 50988 35968
Italy Istat T 40598 40132 36714 45201 45408 51736
South Africa T 36031 31392 24855 35347 44031 78187
Malaysia T 66926 76415 64392 46425 31479 33236
Canada T 76169 77979 41598 58774 29963 38735
Ecuador T 45395 53369 31206 18243 26881 17917
Kazakhstan T 86503 46811 50458 97960 21585 57891
Guatemala T 28228 25568 22630 17925 17811 27027
Denmark T 9410 7836 12329 13398 16575 10726
Brazil T 37681 6032 374 1213 14079 278
Philippines T 11758 6844 6584 7860 14010 5825
Indonesia T 9637 12704 12843 3261 13827 19126
United Kingdom HMRC T 11892 7016 6864 9875 9670 10116
Czech Republic T 6958 8631 8339 9633 9610 9891
Lithuania T 5137 7843 5247 6216 9365 9568
Russia T 225 16269 43150 732 8628 355
Azerbaijan T 8793 15449 6052 1092 5758 1811
Serbia T 2843 3263 7195 4455 5374 7377
Morocco T 2257 1719 1109 6243 3878 7001
Greece T 4670 2268 1323 3311 3621 1375
Hungary T 2474 2838 1351 2081 3412 3710
Nicaragua T 1300 1785 2767 3608 3190 1899
Algeria T 1324 2471 2784 2377 3051 1885
Portugal T 1586 3004 1193 2153 2844 3313
Singapore T 2984 1753 2131 4428 2782 3582
Slovenia T 3101 1649 1638 2246 2611 3072
Latvia T 498 270 1318 1683 2587 1792
Taiwan T 219 420 510 744 2532 200
Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027
Jordan T 710 2482 1060 2235 2418 2702
Belarus T 3406 3756 551 2359 1414
Romania T 232 690 2083 2094 1903 1559
Ghana T 2805 1867 312
Honduras T 622 987 1141 1039 1822 576
Cote d'Ivoire T 6 63 140 4415 1467 1196
Kenya T 16288 227 357 703 828 1757
Croatia (Customs) T 972 668 645 1261 801 256
South Korea T 1462 1 8900 3827 766 947
Senegal T 89 330 250 165 710 881
Slovakia T 1521 582 188 723 677 1205
Ireland (Customs) T 6993 6943 662 1184 669 632
Uruguay T 532 58 157 735 654 1406
Hong Kong T 1168 1028 1258 714 537 409
Sweden T 1001 358 305 321 474 247
Colombia T 1626 1328 703 881 395 360
Luxembourg T 108 114 150 305 327 156
Bulgaria T 123 276 187 322 326 225
Sri Lanka T 199 7 13 60 290 44
Costa Rica T 3872 1244 1961 257 267 390
Estonia T 2 3 53 27 121 35
Panama T 0 0 0 0 78 0
Norway T 517 81 23 120 40 44
El Salvador T 0 0 10 0 25 0
Finland T 6 116 1 13 24 56
Japan T 3179 2772 1160 74 4 62
Switzerland T 53 3 1 581 1 25
Iceland T 1 2 3 1 1 1
Georgia T 4 1 1
Venezuela T 277 214 2 1 0 1
Vietnam T 0 0 0
Cyprus T 0 1 2 0 0 0
Bolivia T 72 14 26 23 0 0
Israel T 0 0 0 0
Malta T 0 2 0 0 0 0
Mauritius T 20 0 38 14 0 2
Reporting Country Unit
Quantity
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Reporting Total
Malaysia T 405401 404874 458543 465716 452504 441980
Russia T 615711 457603 370802 576217 456600 224775
United Kingdom HMRC T 372630 378829 358928 365472 362208 342132
United States T 409357 323937 309151 394225 394129 385300
Germany (Customs) T 239473 261959 248943 276230 268564 240682
Japan T 228644 184663 207976 339915 373500 342710
Brazil T 157153 200658 178233 238490 195172 179514
Netherlands T 145050 138300 177061 165614 198846 166412
Canada T 154773 146366 162281 162039 178332 175595
Sri Lanka T 164508 173663 159477 170072 177619 152929
Belgium T 151413 145890 144964 121121 127826 128897
France (Customs) T 134887 138857 111907 106086 102112 115538
Senegal T 95608 95699 103999 104127 125764 123350
Indonesia T 133098 166913 101191 125816 235119 155361
Italy Istat T 72719 76867 77103 71096 66146 67925
Spain (Customs) T 60565 70653 73322 58862 55136 53070
Cote d'Ivoire T 33626 35372 72260 67354 68982 108462
Colombia T 44713 71826 66782 106155 128234 110996
Thailand T 31294 60904 65683 64049 78827 86420
Ecuador T 4404 36830 64697 53854 42011 28132
Czech Republic T 61331 56809 59536 60564 59208 54517
Mexico T 63305 95447 54265 56775 33851 34543
Poland T 82562 78769 50903 107545 89501 59384
Singapore T 45170 47302 50684 55083 54175 57738
Taiwan T 45097 38399 46674 48388 36976 66905
Portugal T 47036 46832 41746 53164 56228 47293
Ireland (Customs) T 42889 52637 37021 40323 39156 33870
Jordan T 28038 36159 32073 37002 36139 36748
El Salvador T 28484 28824 29766 27022 30392 29678
Sweden T 33964 24812 26765 31899 33325 34156
Austria (Customs) T 21818 25095 23965 25569 20133 15569
South Korea T 28463 37339 22727 18848 15590 42479
Romania T 37537 34475 22173 35854 45665 39204
Kazakhstan T 1443 8715 19487 31579 57278 59068
Hong Kong T 7361 6281 18901 6704 7126 20473
Hungary T 17833 13170 18213 15909 14584 10854
Guatemala T 11244 11448 16654 28288 21131 31923
Slovakia T 17870 19604 16558 18473 24157 17540
Nicaragua T 14553 12131 15764 18781 16800 17665
Paraguay T 14778 11833 15566 18314 18636 21490
Bulgaria T 29810 26217 14848 17864 18357 18613
Croatia (Customs) T 13896 15725 14214 14031 15328 12273
Slovenia T 14971 14489 13873 13886 13176 13244
Mauritius T 11629 10993 12840 11345 11573 9505
Azerbaijan T 9103 353 12814 16243 5210 2199
Iran T 0 12757 8091 1153 16
Greece T 17157 17555 12695 12821 15456 3915
Honduras T 9038 10981 11789 12770 8433 9707
Denmark T 12788 11574 11280 16156 15662 13033
Lithuania T 12220 15372 11276 14717 16614 13978
Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382
Philippines T 3049 66243 10051 10824 4978 18443
Australia T 10279 10816 9016 13226 13115 7822
Chile T 15871 761 7847 4556 1543 5024
Uruguay NO 0 10620 7813 1400 0 0
Estonia T 5756 5313 7561 7400 6382 6303
Finland T 6235 5773 7373 6061 9256 11421
Latvia T 5141 6369 6483 8616 7933 8830
Norway T 7788 9040 6281 10688 9302 11095
Panama T 3275 5612 5589 9407 8370 11915
Costa Rica T 1178 3510 5051 5658 5101 3062
Switzerland T 7264 8121 4769 4256 4704 3052
Algeria T 392 550 3264 1521 106 203
Luxembourg T 1591 2926 3134 3640 3401 3120
Belarus T 4733 3103 8317 7546 5367
Kenya T 2579 5223 2963 4756 4492 7715
Cyprus T 1104 1797 2438 3820 4549 4392
China T 651 6117 2405 5043 353 141
Serbia T 5480 8948 2311 10237 4462 3792
Morocco T 7 20 2142 18 38 27
Iceland T 1533 1581 1625 1625 1710 1865
Bolivia T 21 0 1082 310 1662 1131
Malta T 982 945 761 551 692 1047
Turkey T 642 279 619 443 7548 365
South Africa T 397 720 598 530 1337 1687
New Zealand T 585 1073 526 514 1807 572
India T 104 89 444 5594 7111 450
Uruguay T 1010 3857 328 3157 5413 428
Argentina T 30384 12319 236 712 14254 79
Egypt T 0 40 77 3 221 0
Nigeria T 8 6 25 83 101 14
Venezuela T 0 0 0 282 5849 250
Vietnam T 0 0 0
Peru T 0 0 0 0 0 0
Israel T 0 0 0 0
Georgia T 30047 22095 18634
Ghana T 4549803,00 4598233,00 4377728,00 51009 75306 72146
Reporting Country Unit
Quantity
Informationfromsiteswww.fao.org&www.comtrade.un.org
Аnnex 1

Prices in Canada, FOB USD $/ctn.50 lbs
Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 15,75 20,25 20,25 20,25 20,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 7,75 7,75
2008 7,75 7,00 6,25 6,25 6,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
2009 10,50 10,50 10,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 10,25 10,25
2010 15,25 15,25 15,25 15,25 15,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 17,25 17,25 17,25
2011 15,50 15,75 15,25 13,75 12,50 12,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 12,75 12,25 11,75
2012 11,75 11,50 10,75 11,75 12,25 23,75 0,00 0,00 11,00 11,00 11,25 12,75
2013 18,25 20,50 18,50 18,50 13,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 13,00 13,25 15,00
Аnnex 2

- 19 -
Onion ISO curves (Calculation CM per 1 kg)
Business Plan 2013/14
UAH excl VAT per 1 kg Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Sales Price 1,81 1,86 1,99 1,86 1,93 2,14 2,61 2,75 3,03 3,40 3,95
Soursing price 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79
Stor. And Proc Losses 0,15 0,14 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15
Procesing Cost 0,36 0,34 0,35 0,39 0,44 0,51 0,59 0,71 0,79 0,68 0,65
CM UAH 0,51 0,58 0,70 0,53 0,56 0,70 1,08 1,11 1,30 1,79 2,37
Аnnex 3

Self cost
Everage Uah/kg
(growing cost
480 UAH/t)
2005 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2006 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2007 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2008 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2009 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2010 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2011 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2012 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2013 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778
2014 -
EXW
Everage Uah/kg
sales EXW
2005 1 1 1 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,8856
2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,2 1,19 1,18 1,12 1,9975
2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,6 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,7208
2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,8808
2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,9 1,6758
2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4 4,4167
2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,5 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,2 1,01 3,6475
2012 0,65 0,65 0,4 0,45 0,65 1,2 1,4 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,8 0,8283
2013 1 1 1,64 1,74 4 4 5,4 2 3,5 4 4 6,3 3,2150
2014 -
CM
Everage CM %
(growing cost
480 UAH/t)
2005 -32% -47% -56% -41% -41% 31% -14% 108% 96% 110% 81% 48% 20%
2006 24% 14% 4% -16% -8% 121% 19% 194% 150% 105% 34% -5% 53%
2007 -28% -36% -39% -49% -45% 38% 98% 233% 183% 133% 69% 70% 52%
2008 114% 85% 57% 65% 52% 102% 96% 346% 238% 160% 61% 1% 115%
2009 -22% -37% -50% -63% -68% -44% -6% 242% 294% 355% 226% 146% 81%
2010 119% 112% 98% 133% 130% 236% 81% 523% 646% 583% 313% 239% 268%
2011 205% 186% 143% 130% 143% 275% 6% 131% 110% 81% 36% -14% 119%
2012 -56% -65% -82% -83% -79% -40% -18% 188% 81% 28% -15% -32% -15%
2013 -32% -47% -28% -35% 30% 100% 218% 317% 629% 590% 355% 434% 211%
2014 -
Аnnex 4

Self cost
Everage Uah/kg
(contract
growing on the
basis at ISO
curves (Annex
3)
2005 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2006 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2007 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2008 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2009 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2010 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2011 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2012 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2013 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000
2014 -
EXW
Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Everage Uah/kg
2005 1 1 1 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,8856
2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,2 1,19 1,18 1,12 1,9975
2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,6 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,7208
2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,8808
2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,9 1,6758
2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4 4,4167
2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,5 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,2 1,01 3,6475
2012 0,65 0,65 0,4 0,45 0,65 1,2 1,4 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,8 0,8283
2013 1 1 1,64 1,74 4 4 5,4 2 3,5 4 4 6,3 3,2150
2014 -
CM
Everage %CM
(contract
growing cost 780
UAH/t on the
basis at ISO
curves Annex 3)
2005 -49% -57% -64% -50% -49% 31% -14% 5% -1% 16% 18% 6% -17%
2006 -6% -9% -14% -28% -20% 121% 19% 48% 26% 13% -13% -32% 9%
2007 -46% -49% -49% -56% -53% 38% 98% 68% 43% 29% 10% 22% 5%
2008 63% 48% 31% 40% 32% 102% 96% 125% 71% 44% 5% -28% 52%
2009 -41% -49% -59% -69% -72% -44% -6% 73% 99% 151% 113% 76% 14%
2010 66% 69% 64% 98% 99% 236% 81% 215% 277% 277% 169% 142% 149%
2011 132% 129% 102% 96% 110% 275% 6% 17% 6% 0% -11% -39% 69%
2012 -67% -72% -85% -86% -82% -40% -18% 45% -8% -30% -44% -52% -45%
2013 -49% -57% -40% -45% 13% 100% 218% 111% 268% 281% 196% 282% 106%
Аnnex 5

Fruit and Vegetable
Markets in Europe
FRUITS & VEGETABLES OF UKRAINE 2013
26./27. NOVEMBER, KIEW
HANS-CHRISTOPH BEHR, AMI, BONN
Аnnex 6

About AMI
Agrarmarkt Informations-GmbH (AMI)
was founded in June 2009 after
the forced close down of ZMP, a
semi-public body financed by a
grower levy. Shareholders are
agricultural publishing houses and
agricultural associations.
In Bonn – the Headquarters – and in
two offices in Hamburg and Berlin
about 40 employees work for AMI.
AMI operates independently to supply
comprehensive and up-to-date
information and analyses for all
segments of agribusiness.
Horticulture (Fruit and Vegetables)
is one of the major departments.
23 European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.

24
2,0%
1,2%
1,0%
0,9%
0,7%
0,5%
-0,7%
-1,3%
-1,4%
-1,9%
-3,2%
Courgette
Onions
Mushrooms
Asparagus
Cucumbers
Tomatoes
Carrots
Cauliflower
Lettuce
Cabbage
Green Beans
Vegetable production in the EU (2003-
2012)
Growth rate in % p.a. (lin. Trend)
Source: AMI-Analysis on Basis of national Statistics
Vegetables total:
-0,7%p.a.
European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.26.11.2013

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mio. t
other Veg.
Pepper
Cabbage
Carrots
Onions
Tomatoes
EU-27
EU fresh vegetable exports to third
countries
25
Source: Eurostat
EU-25
Third Country Exports are
approx. 13 % of Total Exports

233 299 297
471 473 525 498 461 450
295 217 254
432 372 270 309 331
255160 167 181
192
197
185 187 181
175
99 132
150
202 218
224 213 220
215336
404
450
546 552 619 578 570
615
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012v
1000 t
Other
Pepper
Green Beans
Onions
Tomatoes
EU-27
26
Source: Eurostat
EU-25
Third Country Imports are
approx. 15 % of total imports
EU Vegetable imports from third countries
(Third country imports stagnate at best, onion imports decreasing…)

2726.11.2013 European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.
11,8 16,1
9,0
15,1 15,0 19,0 18,6 23,8
14,9 12,0
7,3
15,7 11,1
13,0
6,5
11,4 10,1
8,6
11,1
13,1
6,0 12,0
5,6 10,1
6,9
8,85,6
7,9 8,5
8,1
6,7
9,0
7,8
6,4
7,0
16,0
7,57,0 7,8
6,1
50,7
43,9
61,6
42,8 43,6 46,3 45,1 42,6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
UK D NL B A F I E
%
Fresh Vegetables*:Share ofTop 5 in total quantity
bought
Other
Courgette
Lettuces
Belgian Endive
Cauliflower
Pepper
Mushrooms
Cucumbers
Onions
Carrots
Tomatoes
Sources: KantarWorldpanel, GfK, AMI * without Potatoes,and without Melons, incl.Convenience

4463
3910 3719
4049 4165 4374 4157
5006
4504 4209
1456
1147
1067
1154 1073
1127
973
1120
1040
1027
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f
1000 t
NMS
EU-15
- 6 %mах
min
Attention! MAX DIFF 1 340 000 t at EU 27
Onion Production in the EU 27
29
Source: National Statistics, Producer Associations, Euronion, AMI

Why only – 6 %?
Planted area did not remain constant !

8,3%
5,4%
5,0%
4,3%
3,6%
3,6%
3,5%
3,1%
1,8%
-0,5%
-2,0%
-9,9%
Poland
France
Norway
Spain
Germany
Netherlands (sown)
Lituania
Hungary
Austria
UK
Italy
Denmark
change in the area
up to 25% in Ukraine
Onions: Change of planted Area
Source: AMI-Analysis on Basis of national Statistics or Estimations
2013 vs. 2012 in %

32
Onion Production in Europe (1.000 t)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f
EU-15 4.374 4.157 5.006 4.504 4.209
of which
NL (Handelsprod.) 1.070 1.000 1.220 1.175 1.040
Spain 1.234 1.105 1.308 1.190 1.202
Germany 433 387 506 485 431
France 356 330 409 325 319
UK 398 388 492 393 360
Denmark 59 57 72 64 57
Austria 135 149 195 130 123
NMS 1.127 973 1.120 1.040 1.027
of which
Poland 708 578 677 642 611
Czech Republic 39 35 54 32 37
Romania 235 233 244 222 246
Hungary 54 40 60 60 58
EU-27 5.500 5.131 6.126 5.544 5.236
Scource: Producers Associations, Interfel, Nat. Statistics, Euronion
Maxdiff1MIOt

7
2 4 5 5 5 5 9
79
78
83 85
35
25 25
60
14
20
13 10
60
70 70
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2010 2011 2012 2013 ' 10 11 12 13
%
70mm+
40-70 mm
< 40 mm
Estimated Size distribution of onions
33
Source: Euronion
Germany Poland

0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. 46. 48. 50.
EUR/100kg Av. 2009-11 2012 2013
Price of Dutch onions, ex packing House,
40/60-50/70mm, Cl. II
34
Source: HPA/AMI week
26.11.2013

Tasmania: Early Plantings were possible,
great gap afterwards, low yields small sizes
South Africa: Late Plantings (2-3 weeks late),
low sizes, strong domestic market. (Angola!)
United States -4 %, Storage -2 %, Canada
very mixed results, but not full potential
Argentina: High priced currency makes
exports to Europe difficult, area unchanged,
slightly behind schedule
What do we know of other countries?

Japan (Hokkaido): Like in Europe, late
harvest, small sizes !
What do we know of other countries?
36
Brazil: Abundant supply likely to continue
until January, because Normal crops in the
South will be marketed later, due to low
prices now. Imports expected to start later.
New Zealand: Area rather stable (-1 %) late
but normal development of crops.

37
Thanks for attention!
Potapov Sergii , phone +380504471939 e-mail: potap07.75@mail.ru

the balance of exports and imports onions, scenario prices for the first half of 2014 (new)

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