Whilst our technology has increased our understanding of natural and man-made systems, our fundamental intelligence and abilities have remained static, and so have our limits of comprehension. It turns out that we are ill equipped to deal with the underlying non-linear mechanisms governing the natural, evolved and designed worlds. Exemplars that embody these challenges include: the folding of proteins; the design of targeted medicines; the creation of new materials; dense energy storage; adaptive/programmable materials; and artificial intelligence. So, to live, prosper and survive as a species we have to look to a symbiotic relationship with our technology to aid our comprehension and amplify our intelligence, and our knowledge in an increasingly connected complex an non-linear world.
3. But we have no
general methods and
models to analyse &
understand...we are
largely flying blind...
Sunday, 20 May 12
4. Hypothesis:
•The time of simple models &
mathematics has gone
•W e m a y n e v e r f u l l y
understand many underlying
mechanisms
•Outcomes & implications may
only become clear after the
fact...
Sunday, 20 May 12
5. Decoding DNA is but
one example of humans
being defeated by
c o m p l e x i t y. . . t o b e
rescued by machines...
Sunday, 20 May 12
6. Decoding Protein >1000x
more complex...networked
machines are the only way...
Sunday, 20 May 12
7. Similarly:
•Weather systems
•Seismic data
•Money markets
•Mapping the heavens
•Medical imaging
•Logistics
•Data networks
•Political negotiations
•++++
...again machines come
to our rescue...
Sunday, 20 May 12
8. Underlying non-linear
mechanisms are
difficult / impossible to
characterise... and even
more difficult to
understand...
Sunday, 20 May 12
9. Hypothesis:
The future is about emergent
behaviours and surprises...
Sunday, 20 May 12
10. It is about to get more
complex by way of new
mechanisms & technology
Sunday, 20 May 12
11. The next industrial revolution starts here...
Nano Bio
IT + AI
Sunday, 20 May 12
12. The next industrial revolution starts here...
Nano Bio
IT + AI
This is where all
the real action is
going to be
Sunday, 20 May 12
13. And a move from cycles
of:
‘Food to Waste’
...to
‘Food to Waste to Food’
Sunday, 20 May 12
14. Sustainability cannot
be realised with old
technologies, old
industry models... and
old thinking...
Sunday, 20 May 12
15. Moving on from bulk
materials and the
destruction of
resources...
...3D printing is going
mainstream in industry... and
soon it will be in every office
and home
Sunday, 20 May 12
16. Programming materials
to form 3D objects of
predefined shape &
function...
Sunday, 20 May 12
17. Sensors and decoding
the genome in minutes
will change medicine
and care...
...whilst the decoding the
protein will lead to a new
chapter for the human
race...
Sunday, 20 May 12
18. We can only guess at the social implications of
new technologies as we roll them out...
Sunday, 20 May 12
20. Where you are ?
Where you have been ?
Where you are likely to be going to ?
What does it Who you have met ?
know Who you are going to meet ?
Who you call ?
about you? Who calls you ?
Who you TXT - IM - Link ?
All your contacts
All your urls
All you passwords
What you are doing now ?
What have you done in the past ?
What games you play ?
What apps you use ?
What music you listen to...?
What you watch...?
What you read...?
++++++++++
Sunday, 20 May 12
36. It has an abundance of:
- processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
Sunday, 20 May 12
37. But it acts dumb and
doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
Sunday, 20 May 12
38. Not all that helpful !
38,700,000
14,600,000
Sunday, 20 May 12
39. And yet machines are
better at games than
us...and outsmart us on
general knowledge...
Sunday, 20 May 12
40. They control our
industrial processes
to feed, clothe, and
transport us...
Sunday, 20 May 12
41. And bring new levels
of creativity and
problem solving
skills to the party...
Sunday, 20 May 12
42. But aren’t we just
talking about mere
algorithms running
on stacks of silicon...
they are not really
intelligent - are they ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
43. The big problem is we
have no:
•Description
•Definition
•Quantification
•Measure
...we don’t actually know
what intelligence is...
Sunday, 20 May 12
44. And there is nothing
of much use in the
published literature !
Sunday, 20 May 12
45. However, one voluble
group often voice
their opinion on this
topic... the priesthood
of the singularity...
Sunday, 20 May 12
46. Their predictions look like this..
Internet Super
MIP/s Computer
Computing Power
Intelligence Level
PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12
47. The deep theoretical
assumption behind
their predictions !!
P.M
Sunday, 20 May 12
48. On this basis they
predict that the
machines will take
around 2035 !
Sunday, 20 May 12
49. So, how do we
compare
complex
systems ?
Sunday, 20 May 12
52. Scanning long term
comatose patients of
10 years...considered to
be totally vegetative !
Sunday, 20 May 12
53. Necessary conditions for intelligence...
Sensors S >0
Actuators A >0
Memory M >0
Processor P >0
Sunday, 20 May 12
54. Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
Sunday, 20 May 12
55. So starting with a simple model of this form...
Sensors Processor
S P1
System Memory
Environs M
Actuator Processor
A P2
Sunday, 20 May 12
56. Starting with simple models and building
the complexity a layer at a time...
Processor Memory
Sensors
1 ShortTerm
System
Environs
Processor Memory
Actuator
2 LongTerm
Sunday, 20 May 12
57. Followed by mathematical
juggling,normalisation, a few
liberties, & of engineering
licence...
Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Sunday, 20 May 12
58. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
Sunday, 20 May 12
59. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about:
- sensors?
- adaptability?
Sunday, 20 May 12
60. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
Sunday, 20 May 12
61. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….
…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
Sunday, 20 May 12
62. In fact we are rolling out mobile
Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !
Sunday, 20 May 12
63. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12
64. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
Sunday, 20 May 12
65. What’s hot for the future:
- Networked people and devices
- Networked machines
- Sensors
- Nano, Bio, AI
- New materials
- Sustainable production
- Emergent intelligences
- Emergent behaviours
- Our adaptability
Sunday, 20 May 12
66. ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
Thank You
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Sunday, 20 May 12