2. OUTLINE
Broad Objective
Bridge the gap between macroeconomic indicators and microeconomic measures
of transportation.
Narrow Objective
This paper is an experimental exploration of statistical relationships between
selected macroeconomic indicators (SMIs) and the national minibus economy
Presentation
1 Brief Review of Minibus Taxi Market
2 Problem Area
3 Conceptualizing the Minibus Transportation Economy
4 Research Method and Analysis
5 General Conclusions
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3. 1.1 REVIEW OF MINIBUS TAXI MARKET
1. The analysis of transportation systems has evolved from
microeconomic principles and applied in spatial, temporal,
engineering, investment and project evaluative contexts.
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Spatial Analysis- Bid-Rent
Theory
Transport Activities
(Krygsman,2005)
4. 1.2 REVIEW OF MINIBUS TAXI MARKET
1. Minibus taxis are a form of "shared-taxi" formally known as
paratransit because they are unscheduled and operate
parallel to scheduled bus services.
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5. 1.3 REVIEW OF MINIBUS TAXI MARKET
1. The minibus vehicle industry (transportation economy)
serves 25% of the demand for travel in South Africa (travel
economy). As an industry it has evolved through 4 stages:
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6. 1.4 REVIEW OF MINIBUS TAXI MARKET
1. Minibus taxi operators are individual entrepreneurs, serving
their own interests fuelled by the need to accumulate capital
(Khosa, 1994) .
2. The degree to which travel services are produced is
regulated administratively—rather than economically .
3. Recent vehicle production programmes incentivise the local
production of minibus taxi vehicles for the Southern African
market (Lamprecht, 2012; Ensor, 2012).
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7. 1.4 REVIEW OF MINIBUS TAXI MARKET
1. The People-carrier Automotive Investment Scheme (P-AIS) is
one such incentive by the Department of Trade and Industry
(DTI). The P-AIS is
"designed to stimulate a growth path for the people-
carrier vehicle industry through investment in new
and/or replacement models and components that will
result in new employment, retention of current
employment, and/or strengthen the automotive
vehicles value chain‟ (DTI, 2013).
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8. 2.1 KEY PROBLEM AREA
1. Much of transportation analyses focuses specifically on
closed microeconomic problems and assumes very little
connection between various activities that make
transportation economy exist.
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9. 2.2 KEY PROBLEM AREA
1. Transport policies seem to ignore the industrial implications
that enable the transportation economy and fail to consider
that this economy may be subject to macroeconomic forces.
1.
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10. 3.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
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Microeconomic
Fundamentals: Changes
in Supply.
• the factors that influence the vehicle
consumer in the paratransit market;
• the industrial costs of producing the vehicle
and the subsequent sales prices which
indicate how much an operator-owner may
need to cover the investment costs;
• the producer of the transit vehicle itself is
influenced by industrial policies and their
requirements and incentives;
• the role of exogenous economic factors that
are articulated and contained within the
monetary policy of a country.
12. 4.1 SOURCES OF DATA
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1. Data was sourced from the Road Traffic Management Corporation.
a) Minibus Registered Vehicle Population
2. Data was sourced from a minibus taxi vehicle manufacturer in South
Africa.
a) Sales Price
b) Minibus Taxi Sales
3. Data was sourced from World Bank Data portal.
a) Gross Domestic Product
b) Human Population
4. Data was sourced from the South African Reserve Bank
a) Consumer Price Inflation
13. 4.2 METHODS
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1. Cumulative number of vehicle s sold:
𝑆 𝑦𝑖+ 𝑆 𝑦 𝑖−𝑛
2. Number of registered vehicles:
𝑅 𝑦𝑖
3. Number of vehicles ejected from the market for year 𝑦𝑖
:
𝐸 𝑦𝑖
= 𝑆 𝑦𝑖+ 𝑆 𝑦 𝑖−𝑛
− 𝑅 𝑦𝑖
4. Nominal Sales Price per Seat:
𝑛𝑃𝑖
𝑚
=
𝑝 𝑣𝑖𝑗
𝐶 𝑣𝑗
5. Real Sales Price per Seat:
𝑟𝑃𝑖
𝑚
=
𝑝 𝑣𝑖𝑗
𝐶 𝑣𝑗
×
𝐶𝑃𝐼1995
𝐶𝑃𝐼𝑖
14. 4.3 DATA ANALYSIS: ejections
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On average the minibus market seems to eject 8000 vehicles per year.
A reasonable inference is that 89% of vehicles that were in the registered market in
the late 80’s were ejected by 2010
19. 6 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
• Macroeconomic indicators are shown to relate significantly with the
minibus transportation economy, and travel economy at large.
• The relationships are found to be path dependent and dynamic
over time—making it an interesting avenue of research in the
mesoeconomic domain.
• This paper, however, lacks a structured and consistent dataset for
an accurate estimation of travel economies over the same period.
• From a policy making point of view, setting a mesoeconomic
agenda to identify and address industrial policy and travel policy
mismatches is crucial if effective implementation is sought.
• This is a global phenomenon taking place in most developing
countries, intimating an unique avenue of research.
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