The document discusses the economic impacts of hub airports and analyzes the potential economic benefits of expanding Heathrow airport in London. It outlines the methodology used, which calculates direct economic benefits as well as wider economic benefits. Five scenarios are modeled looking at combinations of increased flights, new destinations, and improved reliability. The results found substantial direct economic benefits of 28.6-32.8 billion pounds over 60 years from expanding Heathrow. Additionally, wider economic benefits were higher than for other major transportation projects and 60% of benefits would accrue outside of London.
Concentrate mainly on methodology and findings but worth giving some background about the role of LHR as a hub airport and its competitive position
Study looked only at impact on business users
LHR fulfils different function than other UK airports – a third of a passengers are interchanging – and of those a quarter are interchanging to/from flights to other UK destinations
Hub airport means interchanging passengers can support routes that otherwise wouldn’t be supportable Slide shows destinations served from Heathrow with high proportion of interchanging passengers and the number of flights that could be supported if there were no interchanging passengers. For example, Mexico City could not be served on a daily basis without interchanging passengers Not just London that benefits – eg Accra again would not be served without interchanging passengers of whom a significant proportion are interchanging from flights to/from other UK destinations
Not only is LHR different in that it is a hub but it is also different in the nature of destinations served with the vast majority of passengers travelling on long haul services.
As LHR is capacity constrained the number of destinations it supports is fewer than key rivals Nb LGW serves more destinations but this is due to infrequent seasonal flights to holiday resorts (eg Greek islands etc)
Capacity constraints has led to use of larger aircraft which again restricts the number/type of destinations that can be served
Capacity constraints has also led to fewer and more dominant airlines operating out of LHR compared to competing hubs thereby reducing competition
High proportion of passengers travelling to key European hubs are interchanging – loss of business to LHR thereby reducing range of destinations served Domestic short haul from Newcastle/Manchester to LHR are predominantly interchanging (won’t transfer to high speed rail)
Lack of capacity at LHR means UK poorly connected to key growing economies such as China, Brazil and Russia compared to competitors. Even India where long term relationships new hubs by Indian airlines have gone to Frankfurt and Brussels due to lack of capacity at LHR
60 yr npvs LHR assume to operate up to 86% capacity 6 new domestic destinations added (Leeds, Inverness, Jersey, Liverpool, Durham and Plymouth) 20 new international destinations added (based on major centres not presently served – mainly China, S America, SE Asia and Russia)