2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas

OECD December 2014
Exploring the evolutionary
potential of the present using
numbers supported by narrative
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
Complex adaptive systems
Cognitive science
Evolutionary biology
Anthropology
Distributed ethnography

Setting the context
Beyond big data?
The internet of things and the quantified self take us beyond
the conventional limitations of text base analysis but ...
One algorithm to rule them all and in the darkness bid them
Need to remember that we need proper sampling and
also advocacy through traceability; no black boxes
Real time feedback and to shift from linear to non-linear
views of policy and action
Foresight needs to focus as much on sidecasting as
forecasting or backcasting
Shift from a narrative to patterns of micro-narratives
perceived as a manageable flow over time

Perspective through self-signified micro-narratives
Landscape containing over 40k
self-signified micro-narratives
Hollows are stable patterns,
the peaks unstable domains
Yellow dots are outliers
We need to understand the
energy needs of a new
sustainable narratives
Monitoring as evaluation &
who owns the power of
interpretation?

Clusters in the tail …
Probability of outcome
Gaussian
Low Probability
High impact events
Range of possible outcomes
10⁵
10⁴
10³
10²
10¹
10⁰
10-¹
10-²
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Derived from material created by Max Boisot
Academy of Management Montreal 2010
Magnitude m=log₁₀(S)
N(M=m(earthquakes/year)
Pareto
✘
early detection
fast recovery
speedy exploitation

Monitoring as evaluation
From anticipation ...
Log of event frequency
Hypothesis/
inductive Non-hypothesis/
Log of event size
Pareto
world
Gaussian
world
... to triggering
anticipatory
awareness
Possible
Plausible
Probable
abductive
Derived from material created by Max Boisot
Academy of Management Montreal 2010

“The invisible gorilla strikes again”
Drew, Vo & Wolfe
Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
“What about expert searchers who
have spent years honing their ability
to detect small abnormalities in
specific types of image? We asked 24
radiologists to perform a familiar
lung nodule detection task. A gorilla,
48 times larger than the average
nodule, was inserted in the last case.
83% of radiologists did not see the
gorilla. Eye-tracking revealed that the
majority of the those who missed the
gorilla looked directly at the location
of the gorilla. Even expert searchers,
operating in their domain of
expertise, are vulnerable to
inattentional blindness.”

Understanding decision making
The most important
thing in this example
was
© 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Res e UrvSe dP.at. 8,031,201
Acting
intuitively,
instantly
The situation
was analysed
logically
Colour coding by demographics
Each dot represents a story or picture
that can be interrogated to explain
the numbers
People thought deeply
and made decisions
based on principles

monitoring community impact
96% responded
12%
26%
12%
8%
8% 11%
100% responded
Community A
The patterning of indexing should reflect a
rightward shift, especially in Teachermante,
with WHG’s entry into the market
2%
It would indicate both that their education
programs are gaining success, and that the
villagers in Teachermante are moving toward
purchase of treated water thereby increasing
3%
its marketshare
Community B
22%
6% 29%

Landscape of Completing on time v Actions shaped by Deeply held values
and principles
9
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80
are
situation principles
and this values in held Actions Deeply T8 Completing on time motivated by: T3 Key behaviours in the story are
©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.
shaped by:
Completing on time
Deeply held values and principles
Density
Observations:
Actions shaped by Deeply held values
and principles are not coincident with
motivations for Completing on time. This
is evident with the very low probability of
stories being signified in the area marked
at A’ on the landscape. Situations do not
co-occur in the areas marked by the pink
highlights below (A’ area on the
landscape).
A’

Doing it right v An intense drive to achieve: contrast from Neg & Strongly
Neg (left) and Pos & Strongly Pos (right)
10
20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80
©2014 Cognitive Edge. All rights reserved. Strictly confidential.
Doing it Right
An intense drive to achieve
0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60 80 100
Doing it Right
Negative and Strongly Negative only Positive and Strongly Positive only
Doing it Right
Observation:
With the Negative landscape (on left), we see an elongated pattern at area A where NOT Doing it Right runs the gambit of An intense
drive to achieve. We also see a shift in area B with Doing it right moving more toward An intense drive to achieve.
With the Positive landscape (on right) in area C, Doing it right and NOT An intense drive to a achieve is the same pattern we found on
page 94 with all stories present. In general, this landscape is very similar to the overall landscape on page 94.
Density
Doing it Right
Density
A
B
C

Managing for serendipity
1
2
3
4
Question
capabilty
Question
understanding

Current explorations in practice
❖ Changing the narratives of the past to
enable a new narratives of the future.
❖ Real time decision support in conditions
of uncertainty using extended human
sensor networks. Creating networks for
ordinary need that can be activated for
extraordinary purpose
❖ From anticipation to triggering
anticipatory awareness
❖ Measuring wellness as dispositions
❖ Engagement as advocacy: What we do to
create more stories like these, fewer like those

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to
collapse once pressure is placed upon it for
control purposes
“The facts are absolutely clear. There is no
question that in virtually all circumstances
in which people are doing things in order to
get rewards, extrinsic tangible rewards
undermine intrinsic motivation”
New Scientist 9th April 2011 pp 40-43
Goodhart’s Law
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases
to be a good measure
Strathern variation

The nature of complexity
❖ Networks for ordinary purpose activated for
extraordinary need using polymorphic signifier sets
❖ Oral history in schools
❖ Field staff notebooks
❖ The Patient Journey
❖ Public transport
❖ Shadowing experience
❖ Church & cultural groups
❖ Enables imperfect and partial copying
❖ Attitudinal measures as lead indicators
❖ Anticipatory audit & awareness
❖ Changing habits by multiple small reinforcement
including the use of exaptation
❖ Testing & modifying cultural affinity & empathy

Nine factors in scaling
❖ Boundaries
❖ Constraints
❖ Granularity
❖ Gradient
❖ Catalysts
❖ Micro-diversity
❖ Parable form narratives
❖ Cycle-time stability
❖ Measureable coherence

2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas

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2014.12.01 - NAEC-Strategic Foresight Workshop_Session 3_Wim Thomas