The economy of the Autonomous Provinces of Trento and Bolzano: Business cycle update - Antonio Accetturo
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Presentation by Antonio Accetturo, Head, Economic Research Unit, Bank of Italy - Trento branch at the 11th Spatial Productivity Lab meeting of the OECD Trento Centre held in virtual format on 10 December 2020. More OECD info: https://oe.cd/SPL
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The economy of the Autonomous Provinces of Trento and Bolzano: Business cycle update - Antonio Accetturo
- 1. ANTONIO ACCETTURO Head, Economic Research Unit, Bank of Italy - Trento branch The economy of the Autonomous Provinces of Trento and Bolzano: Business cycle update 10 December 2020 | 16.00-17.30 CET | WebinarRecent socioeconomic trends in Trentino and Alto-Adige/South Tyrol, Italy #spatialproductivity
- 2. The document
- 3. Overall picture • The pandemic has had negative economic consequences. The forecast of GDP growth for 2020: • Trentino: -10,2%/-11,6% (source: FBK-IRVAPP-ISPAT). • Alto Adige: -10,0% (source: IRE). • Italy: -9,5% (source: Bank of Italy). • Sharp drop in the first semester, slight recovery in the summer. High uncertainty: decrease in investment plan and consumption • Increase in liquidity demand of firms, fulfilled thanks to suspensions and bank lending with public guarantee
- 4. Firms in the first semester Widespread drop in sales and worked hours. Trentino Alto Adige Manufactory (sales) -17,2% -66,8 p.p. (balance +/-) Export -18,7% -8,4% Construction (worked hours) -20,1% -18,7% Retail (sales) -12,0% -49,3 p.p. (balance +/-) Tourist arrivals -40,4% -46,1%
- 5. The summer recovery • Industry. Stabilization or increase in sales in August. Forecast of further improvement for the spring 2021 (survey of the Bank of Italy). • Construction. Trentino: 1,7%; Alto Adige: 2,3% (Jul-Aug).
- 7. Credit demand of firms
- 9. Labour market • Employment (I sem). Trentino: -1,8%; Alto Adige: -2,0%. • Unemployment (I sem). Trentino: 5,2% (-0,5 p.p.); Alto Adige: 3,6% (+0,5 p.p.). Increase in inactive workers.
- 11. Credit market
- 12. Credit quality • Non-performing loans are stable: a consequence of public measures and recommendations of supervisory authorities. • Stock of non-performing loans in June. Trentino: 6,5% (from 7,2% in December); Alto Adige: 4,3% (stable; 7,5% Italy).