Nordiske børser – best i klassen i 50 år
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Senior porteføljeforvalter Vegard Søraunet gir deg alt om de nordiske børsene, hvordan markedene har vært de beste i verden gjennom 50 år og hvilke gode investeringsmuligheter du finner her.
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Nordiske børser – best i klassen i 50 år
- 1. Nordiske børser – best i klassen siste 50 år Vegard Søraunet Senior Porteføljeforvalter ODIN Norden, ODIN Sverige og ODIN Emerging Markets
- 2. Nordiske børser – best i klassen siste 50 år Vegard Søraunet Senior Porteføljeforvalter ODIN Norden, ODIN Sverige og ODIN Emerging Markets
- 3. Long-term return – “The Nordics on top” Annualized real returns 1965-2014 3 Source: Credit Suisse, Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015, Dimson, Marsh, Staunton, London Business School.
- 4. Value creation versus Price - PB vs. ROE (16E) Sweden Norway Denmark Finland USA UK France VINX Japan Germany Belgium Austria Switzerland Spain Netherlands Portugal 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Price to book value (2016e) Return On Equity (2016e) Source: Factset, per 24.02.2016 Value creation
- 5. Our funds even better value creation - PB vs. ROE (16E) Sweden Norway Denmark Finland USA UK France VINX Japan Germany Belgium Austria Switzerland Spain Netherlands Portugal ODIN Sverige ODIN Norge ODIN Finland ODIN Norden 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Price to book value (2016e) Return On Equity (2016e) Source: Factset, per 24.02.2016
- 6. «Why world leading quality companies» Long term owners (mainly Sweden) High dividend yield Shareholder return focus Profitable growth Niches with «pricing power» Global export companies Small home market Some big sectors - exposure
- 7. Why focus on value creation? Returns of the highest value creation against the lowest value creation companies 7 Period 31.03.2000 - 03.02.2016 Source: Factset, ODIN 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 mar/ 00 mar/ 01 mar/ 02 mar/ 03 mar/ 04 mar/ 05 mar/ 06 mar/ 07 mar/ 08 mar/ 09 mar/ 10 mar/ 11 mar/ 12 mar/ 13 mar/ 14 mar/ 15 Best Bucket ROE Worst Bucket ROE MSCI Sweden 900 157 201
- 8. Why Nordics? Attractive sector exposure Energi Bank og finans Konsum - inntekt Konsum - defensiv Helse Industri Teknologi Råvarer Telecom Forsyning 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Pr. 12.10.2015. målt ved all cap indekser (SAX, OSEAX, KAX, HEX)
- 10. Source: Factset and annual reports; per 07.10.2015 (LTM) ODIN Norden – selling products globally Important growth driver North America 15% Central & South America 4% Nordic 27% Rest of Europe 28% China 6% Rest of Asia/Pacific 13% Africa & Middle East 4% Russi a 3%
- 11. The Nordics The business proposition
- 12. Investment Objective Long term value creation We try to find companies with proven track records, with strong competitive advantage, trading at attractive prices 12
- 13. Price Quality - Value creation1 Verdiselskaper 1 1 Investment Universe ODIN Model in theory 13
- 14. Quality (Value creation) Price ODIN Model, in practice Different Value Investments 14 «Transformation» «Supply/demand» «Competitive advantage»
- 15. Quality (Value creation) Price ODIN Model, in practice Different Value Investments 15 «Transformation» «Supply/demand» «Competitive advantage»
- 16. Active fund manager: Nordic Universe The fight for quality The Nordic universe 721 M.Cap > EUR 600m 235 5 YR avg ROE > 8% 158 Dividend Yield > 2% 118 Net Debt to EBITDA < 3,5x 85FCF Yield >2% (LT interest rate) 65 16 The fund is currently EUR 1,0bn under management, if you want a 3% position and not own more than 5% of the oustanding shares in the company, the the Source: Bloomberg Criterias # comp. The Nordic Market 721 Fund size EUR 1,0bn M.Cap size > EUR xx 600 235 5 years average ROE > 8 % 158 Dividend yield > 2% 118 Net debt / EBITDA < 3,5x 85 Free cash yield > 10 year bond (2%) 65 End result # companies 65
- 17. Total return Earnings growth Dividend Yield P/E Fundamentals Change in price Contributor to total return?
- 18. 22.1% 16.5% 2.9% 2.6% Fundamentals Change in price 12%88% Annual total return last 10 years
- 19. Sweden the growth locomotive Nordic GDP
- 20. Interest rates down Renter, 10-år
- 21. Better environment for export driven companies Handelsvektet valutakurs Kilde: ODIN og Macrobond
- 22. Pricing of the Market - VINX Source: Bloomberg *Per 27.11.2015 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 VINX Benchmark = 1.99 Index level Price book=1.5 Price book=2.5
- 23. 2015 – Fund performance 10.7% 22.2% 4.4% 2.1% 33.2% 38.2% 27.9% 8.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% ODIN Norden ODIN Sverige ODIN Finland ODIN Norge Meravkastning mot referanseindeks NOK 2 milliarder in outperformance for customers
- 24. ODINs recommended products ODIN Rente ODIN Konservativ ODIN Flex ODIN Horisont ODIN Aksje 0 % 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % Linjen viser aksjeandelen.
- 25. ODIN Aksje invest in five different funds 12.5 % 12.5 % 25 %25 % 25 % ODIN Emerging Markets ODIN Norge ODIN Global ODIN Europa ODIN Norden
- 26. Conclusions Dont cross the street for hunting performance Put your money to fund managers which you believe in. Choose an «active manager» Size matters Be patient and long term Use corrections to increase your savings Corrections Average performance -11% Average time 5,5 months 26 AuM Active Share
Editor's Notes
- truls
- Vegard
- SR avd Domkirkeplassen
- Trying to buy quality at decent prices….the relationship between value creation (i.e return on equity) and price…
- How companies in the portfolio fits into this framework….
- How companies in the portfolio fits into this framework….
- Truls – men nico, oppdater tallene