1. The evolution of solar photovoltaic
technology and its potential in
today’s energy market
Team 11
Peter Chun
Nicholas Montes
Roman Novitski
ME 433: Advanced Energy
Solutions
Professor Boehman
2. Outline
• Objective
• Motivation
• Solar and Government Subsidies
• Solar Industry (US & Abroad)
• Photovoltaic Technology
– Crystalline Silicon
– Thin Film
• Cost Analysis
3. Objective
To assess whether advances in PV solar
panels can make them competitive with fossil
fuels on a cost analysis basis
4. Motivation
• Need energy alternatives to fossil fuels
• Solar energy vastly abundant
• Current photovoltaic solar industry relies
heavily on government subsidies
• Advancements in technology and
manufacturing required to drive down cost
5. Current Electricity Generation
All Sources
Total = 4,100,656
thousand MWh
Energy Information Administration, Retrieved December 5th, 2012 from
www.eia.gov/beta/enerdat/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1
6. Electricity Generation Growth
Renewable Sources
Energy Information Administration, Retrieved December 5th, 2012 from
www.eia.gov/beta/enerdat/#/topic/0?sec=g&geo=g&fuel=vvg&agg=2,0,1
7. Real Goods Solar, Inc. , Retrieved December 2, 2012, from
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RSOL
Economic Reactions to Government
Subsidies
8. • Solar Foundation
calls it the fastest
U.S. growing
industry
• 93,000 Jobs in
2010
• More jobs per
megawatt than
any other
renewable
energy
1. Resch, Rhone. Fastest Growing Industry in the U.S.- Solar Energy. Retrieved December
2, 2012 from http://thesolarfoundation.org/blog/fastest-growing-industry-us-
%25E2%2580%2593-solar-energy.
Rise of the United States’ Solar
Industry1
9. Talbot, David. The Great German Energy Experiment. Retrieved December
1, 2012 from
http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/428145/the-great-
Goals of the Renewable Sector in
Germany
10. Rise in the EU solar industry
Photovoltaic capacity installed by the end of 2008 in
Megawatt Peak
Europe’s Energy Portal. Renewables. Retrieved December 1st, 2012 from
http://www.energy.eu/#renewable
11. Germany Electricity Rates compared
to the United States
Institute for Energy Research. Solar Subsidies Make Electricity More
Expensive. Retrieved December 1, 2012 from
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2012/07/19/13253/
12. Common PV cells
• Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)
– Dominate current market
• Thin Film Cells
– Gaining in popularity
Images retrieved December 4th 2012 from : http://www.solarpowernotes.com/ how-solar-cells-works.html#.UL4rx-
Oe8mU http://www.sunconnect.com.au/solar-panel-info/types-of-solar-panels/
13. Crystalline Silicon
• Most established type of PV
• Thick crystallized silicon wafers
• Highest performance at λ = 1.15 μm1
• 33% maximum efficiency (Shockley
Queisser Limit)2
1. Shepherd, W., Shpeherd, D.W. (2002) “Energy Studies.” 2nd ed London [England]:
Imperial College pp 406
2. United States Department of Energy. (2005) “Basic Research Needs for Solar
Utilization” pp. 22
14. Thin Film
• Thin semiconductor layer on flexible surface
• Typically less efficient than c-Si
– Gen III GaAs at 26% in lab1
• Research needed: crystal nucleation, charge
transport
1. Green M.A., Keith E., Hishikawa, Y., Warta, W. (2008) “Solar Cell Efficiency Tables (Version 33,)”
Prog. Photovolt: Res. Appl. 2009; 17:85–94
2. Office of Science retreieved Dec 1st, 2012
http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/seu_rpt.pdf
15. Manuf act uring
cryst alline PV
cells
• Supply of high purity silicon
• Mono-crystalline
• Poly-crystalline
• Ribbon
• Ingot creation
• Czochralski process
• Casting
• Polysilicon melt
• Wafer cutting
• 200-400 micrometers
• Time consuming
• Waste material
• Doping
• Layering/coating
• Assembly
• $2-3/Watt
• Good improvement
• $20-100/W in 1970s
Hitachi Hitec, retrieved Dec 5th 2012 from: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.html
Solar Direct, retrieved Dec 5th 2012, from http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm
16. Manuf act uring
thin - film PV cells
• Substrate
• Glass
• Plastics
• Roll-to-roll deposition
• Various material
• Amorphous silicon (a-Si)
• Cadmium telluride (CdTe)
• Copper indium gallium
selenide (CIGS)
• Doping
• Layering/coating
• Assembly
• $1.5/Watt or lower
Hitachi Hitec, retrieved Dec 5th 2012 from: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.html
Solar Direct, retrieved Dec 5th 2012, from http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm
17. Green Rhino Energy, retrieved Dec 5th, 2012 from http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/technologies/pv_valuechain.php
18. Quantum Solar Power, retreived Dec 5th, 2012 from http://quantumsp.com/en/solar-energy/a-comparison-of-pv-technologies/
19. Lawrence Kazmerski, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Retrieved
December 1st, 2012, from http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/images/efficiency_chart.jpg
20. Conclusion of the solar industry
competing with fossil fuels
• The solar industry can compete with fossil
fuels without subsidies
Energy Source Cost per unit energy ($/kWh)
Natural Gas 0.06
Thin Film 0.08
Coal 0.10
Crystalline Silicon 0.15
U.S. Energy Information Administration. Table 2. Regional Variation in
Levelized cost of New Generaton Resources.Retrieved December1,2012
From http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm
In 2011, solar energy accounted for 1,818 thousand MWh which represents 0.04% of electricity generation in the US
In 2008, when the United States began to focus on energy independence, the alternative energy business began to flourish. The chance to turn a profit in the alternative energy business was a direct result of the support President Obama had for the Alternative Energy industry. Solar energy was no different with record high stock prices being sold during the fiscal 2008 year. These prices is a response to promise that the American people saw in solar energy. With hundreds of millions of dollars being pumped into solar technology, Americans and more specifically the solar industry could be optimistic of its future. Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the 1603 tax-grant program was signed into law, which granted owners of solar properties to build solar panels with 30% of the construction costs covered by grants. This program began a rapid growth of solar industry, where from 2010 to 2012, 1,179 solar projects were created.
In 2011, it is expected that there will be around 120,000 jobs created. http://thesolarfoundation.org/blog/fastest-growing-industry-us-%25E2%2580%2593-solar-energy
A similar track was taken by Germany in 1990, when the solar industry boomed when the German government focused on generating its energy by a renewable source. Germany also promised its people that it would keep solar energy at a fixed rate for the next 20 years. With the price of solar energy fixed for the next 20 years, the solar industry in Germany grew to 20% in 2010
http://www.energy.eu/#renewable
Using the subsidies, the German people still paid on average 35 cents per kWh of energy, whereas Americans would pay 11 cents per kWh of energy. Compared to the solar feed-in tariffs where the German government pays 25 cents per kWh of electricity and the United States government pays none. These subsidies were so important that it became part of the German solar companies’ business model. As a result, when the world recession in late 2008 hit and the unpopularity of nuclear energy lead to the closing of nuclear plants in Germany, subsidies were not able to impact the growing costs of electricity. As a result, the most expensive electricity rate in Europe became even more unaffordable and six German solar companies became bankrupt
From cell to array: http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm
Materal/cell process: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.html
From cell to array: http://www.solardirect.com/pv/pvlist/pvlist.htm
Materal/cell process: http://www.hitachi-hitec.com/global/solution/solarbattery/service/index.html
PV value chain: http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/technologies/pv_valuechain.php
Green Rhino Energy, retrieved Dec 5th, 2012 from http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/technologies/pv_valuechain.php
Comparison: http://quantumsp.com/en/solar-energy/a-comparison-of-pv-technologies/
Quantum Solar Power, retreived Dec 5th, 2012 from http://quantumsp.com/en/solar-energy/a-comparison-of-pv-technologies/
