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Addressing Travel Dynamics in the Era of
COVID
Neil Watt
Head of Analytics, B.B Energy
S&P Global Platts Middle Distillates Conference
March 2022
Overview
Part I: Personal Travel Activity
-Overview of European and U.S personal Travel Activity
-Work and Retail related Demand Dynamics
-Air vs Road Travel
Part II: Road Freight Activity
-Overview of Road Freight Dynamics
-Structural Issues and challenges
Part III: Decarbonisation Trends
-Passenger EVs
-Electric HGVs
Part IV: Conclusion
Part V: Sources
March 2022
Part I: Personal Travel Activity
March 2022
Overview of Euro and U.S personal travel activity
March 2022
• European demand losses were 6 % relative to 2019 levels over Q4, 2021. This was driven mainly by WFH activity
and lower retail & recreational travel.[1], [2], [3]
• From 2021, covid policies across Europe were generally more stringent and uniform within national boundaries than
in U.S, which accounted for some of the disparity in demand trajectory.[2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7]
Political Characteristics of restrictions: U.S
• U.S demand losses relative to 2019 levels varied
widely by state.[4]
• Clear clustering of political affiliation and demand
losses (i.e not purely technocratic), and lack of
relationship with case numbers.[4], [8], [9]
March 2022
FL
NJ
DE
NY
Political Characteristics of restrictions: Europe
• Policy response in Europe was generally more
“technocratic” than in U.S with no evident split
across political spectrum.[2], [3], [7], [10]
• Severity of the policies were not proportional to
cases per capita; multitude of restrictions were in
place for long periods which disrupted travel
activity.[2], [3], [7], [11]
March 2022
WFH Activity Background
March 2022
• WFH accounted for ~ 70 % of personal travel demand reductions in Europe, ~ 80 % in U.S over Q4, 21.[2], [3], [4]
• Implied incremental WFH post-pandemic projected at 8-11% in U.S and 8-13 % in Europe.[12], [,13], [14], [15], [16]
• In U.S and Europe on average ~ 30-45 % of workforce can work from home, depending on the state.[12], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21]
• Tendency towards homeworking is lower in Europe than U.S generally. Prior to pandemic only 15% of EU workers
worked remotely, compared to 23.7 % in U.S.[22]
• In the U.S, 60% of decisions around WFH taken on a team or individual level.[23]
WFH Activity And Socioeconomic Status
March 2022
• In both US and Europe higher work travel losses were associated with higher socioeconomic status- i.e not
reflecting weakening of underlying economy.[2], [4], [3], [24], [25]
U.S Gasoline: Long Term WFH Impacts
In periods of relative calm, WFH losses converged at
or just below survey expectations for post-
pandemic behaviour.[15], [16], [26], [27]
However, in long term there may be some further
recovery beyond this for various reasons:
1. Non-exclusive WFH activity.[17]
2. Long term career prospects may impeded by
WFH regardless of productivity.[28]
3. Distribution of implied WFH losses heavily
skewed to tiny minority of individuals.[16]
March 2022
Euro Passenger Diesel Demand: WFH Impacts
• Similarly to U.S; WFH impacts did not
materially go below where surveys
indicated.[2], [3], [12], [13]
• However, were more instances where WFH
activity stayed above the survey baselines-
particularly following critical events.
March 2022
Retail & Recreational Travel Activity I
• Retail sales growth has been strong in U.S and Europe since early 2021.[29], [30]
• In U.S, lower “fear” of covid, vaccine rollout and generous stimulus packages correlated with higher sales activity;
and higher retail & recreational travel activity.[9], [29], [31], [32]
March 2022
Retail & Recreational Travel Activity II
• European retail activity becoming less homogenous across income groups in high FP environment. Likely early stages of
price-demand reaction.[1], [2], [33], [34]
• Duty cuts announced so far (as of 24th March 2022) probably unlikely to avoid significant demand destruction.
March 2022
Air vs Road Travel I
• Before the pandemic EU residents made most of their
outbound trips by air (42 % more than car travel).[1] ,[3],
[35]
• Key concerns included quarantining and border
closures. Furthermore, travelers were most afraid of
catching Covid through air travel locations (61%)
compared to other environments.[36], [37]
• Travelers under 44 comprised 50 % of tourists in
Europe pre-covid; unlikely to have been vaccinated
during peak travel season.[11], [38]
• Particularly strong personal driving travel activity in key
tourist destinations in France, Italy, Greece, Spain
potentially indicate air travel substitution.[1], [2], [3]
March 2022
Air vs Road Travel II
• Jet recovery has been skewed to domestic activity. But there are some early signs that international travel may increase;
this could detract from seasonal uptick in summer road travel demand.[1], [39], [40]
• ~60-70% of revenue is driven by higher income groups and so less likely to be FP sensitive than road travel.[41], [42], [43], [44],
[45]
March 2022
PART II: Road Freight Activity
March 2022
Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: Overview
• Freight activity, which comprised ~55-60% of road
diesel demand prior to the pandemic, performed much
better than personal travel.[3], [46], [47], [48], [49], [50]
• Major haulage companies, although facing lower
operating profits QoQ in Q4, still achieved better
returns than in 2019.[51], [52], [53], [54]
• Driver shortages are constraining freight growth.[55]
• Changes to EU cabotage rules and 4-week break ruling
will likely exacerbate existing structural issues.[56]
March 2022
Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: FP I
• Freight is less FP sensitive than passenger travel and
unlikely to be as impacted. [3] ,[34] ,[46], [47], [48], [49], [50], [57], [58]
• Higher costs whether wage or fuel related have at times
been fully absorbed by the commercial customer rather
than the trucker necessarily. [3] ,[34] ,[46], [47], [48], [49], [50], [57],
[58]
• However, higher fuel costs likely to pressure independent
truckers and increase market share of large operators (e.g
trucker strikes in Spain).[51], [52], [53], [54], [59]
March 2022
Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: FP II
• Downturn in freight travel in 2012 coincided with
a sharp downturn in mining activity. This since
has not recovered regardless of FP levels.[60], [61]
• Several leading haulage companies ascribed the
macroeconomic fallout from the sovereign debt
crisis as being a key driver for 2012 reduction (i.e
not FP rise over 2010-2012).[57], [58]
• Decline in activity was skewed to reductions at
the national level; permanent shift towards
international road freight occurred from 2011.[62]
March 2022
PART III: Decarbonisation Trends
March 2022
European EV Development: I
• Passenger EVs comprised 2.3% of fleet in 2020
(+1.2 % share YoY), but that has likely grown to
over 3 % as of 2021.[63], [64]
• BEVs and PHEVs now make up 18 % of new sales
(up from 10.5 % in 2020!); outpacing
infrastructure growth.[65], [66]
• A range of financial incentives are available for
purchasers of EV passenger vehicles.[67], [68]
• The range of passenger EV models available in
Europe is becoming broader with various models
at different price levels.[69], [70]
March 2022
European EV Development: II
• Over-reliance on home charging; public infrastructure
otherwise incapable of handling current fleet.[1],[71]
• Current public charge infrastructure can handle up to ~5-
6 % passenger EV penetration (assuming home charging
continues).[1], [65], [66] [71], [72], [73]
• Fast-charge points have increased from 7 % of total in
2015 to 13 % as of 2021; on average one every 60 km on
European motorways.[66], [74]
• If fast charge points increased to 80 % of total could
handle ~20% EV market penetration. All charge points
should be fast charge or better.[1]
• New novel technologies involving super-fast charging
batteries are in development.[75], [76], [77]
March 2022
*Simulation of average waiting time (including charging) at public charge points in Europe. Assumes exponential interarrival times for new EVs, assumes current rate
of home charging continues, assumes no change in VMTs.
European EV Development: III
• HGVs comprise over 60% of road freight related diesel
demand.[1], [3], [46], [47], [48], [49], [50]
• Major hurdles to electrifying HGVs; only 0.2% of
trucks in use are renewable.[63], [78], [79]
• Zero emission HGVs generally twice as expensive as
new conventional HGVs, but can be 3-5 times as
expensive depending on range and whether fuel cell
or battery electric.[78], [80], [81], [82]
• Electric HGVs have different charging, space and
location requirements to passenger EVs.[79], [83]
• $ 30 bn has been invested in disruptive solutions
while major delivery companies have announced plans
to add hundreds of thousands of EVs in coming
years.[84]
March 2022
PART IV: Conclusion
March 2022
Conclusion:
• There will be some FP demand response in diesel markets but its relevance likely to be limited to passenger
travel.
• Likely ~50-75 kbd road diesel losses due to WFH vs 2019 levels in Europe to continue post-covid.
• Freight demand robust and underlying fundamentals are strong despite well publicised issues. However,
structural issues may constrain growth going forward.
• Overall, road diesel demand losses are miniscule compared to refining capacity losses in Europe (i.e 670 kbd
CDU shutdowns).
• Current EV infrastructure able to support growth in EV passenger in short term, but substantially more
development is needed; particularly in fast charge points.
• Decarbonisation of freight- largest share of road diesel demand- is likely to be extremely challenged and
there are major structural obstacles to this.
March 2022
PART V: Sources
March 2022
Sources I:
March 2022
[1] BB Energy, London, 2022.
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March 2022
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March 2022
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[83] EDF, "Electric car charging points," 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.edfenergy.com/electric-cars/charging-
points#:~:text=Standard%20UK%20domestic%20electricity%20outlet,power%20output%20of%203%20kW.
[84] DHL, "Logistics Trend Radar," 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.dhl.com/global-en/home/insights-and-innovation/insights/logistics-trend-radar.
[85] OECD, "Short-term transport indicators ," February 2022. [Online]. Available: https://stats.oecd.org/BrandedView.aspx?oecd_bv_id=trsprt-data-
en&doi=g2g55581-en#.
March 2022

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Addressing Travel Dynamics in the Era of COVID

  • 1. Addressing Travel Dynamics in the Era of COVID Neil Watt Head of Analytics, B.B Energy S&P Global Platts Middle Distillates Conference March 2022
  • 2. Overview Part I: Personal Travel Activity -Overview of European and U.S personal Travel Activity -Work and Retail related Demand Dynamics -Air vs Road Travel Part II: Road Freight Activity -Overview of Road Freight Dynamics -Structural Issues and challenges Part III: Decarbonisation Trends -Passenger EVs -Electric HGVs Part IV: Conclusion Part V: Sources March 2022
  • 3. Part I: Personal Travel Activity March 2022
  • 4. Overview of Euro and U.S personal travel activity March 2022 • European demand losses were 6 % relative to 2019 levels over Q4, 2021. This was driven mainly by WFH activity and lower retail & recreational travel.[1], [2], [3] • From 2021, covid policies across Europe were generally more stringent and uniform within national boundaries than in U.S, which accounted for some of the disparity in demand trajectory.[2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7]
  • 5. Political Characteristics of restrictions: U.S • U.S demand losses relative to 2019 levels varied widely by state.[4] • Clear clustering of political affiliation and demand losses (i.e not purely technocratic), and lack of relationship with case numbers.[4], [8], [9] March 2022 FL NJ DE NY
  • 6. Political Characteristics of restrictions: Europe • Policy response in Europe was generally more “technocratic” than in U.S with no evident split across political spectrum.[2], [3], [7], [10] • Severity of the policies were not proportional to cases per capita; multitude of restrictions were in place for long periods which disrupted travel activity.[2], [3], [7], [11] March 2022
  • 7. WFH Activity Background March 2022 • WFH accounted for ~ 70 % of personal travel demand reductions in Europe, ~ 80 % in U.S over Q4, 21.[2], [3], [4] • Implied incremental WFH post-pandemic projected at 8-11% in U.S and 8-13 % in Europe.[12], [,13], [14], [15], [16] • In U.S and Europe on average ~ 30-45 % of workforce can work from home, depending on the state.[12], [17], [18], [19], [20], [21] • Tendency towards homeworking is lower in Europe than U.S generally. Prior to pandemic only 15% of EU workers worked remotely, compared to 23.7 % in U.S.[22] • In the U.S, 60% of decisions around WFH taken on a team or individual level.[23]
  • 8. WFH Activity And Socioeconomic Status March 2022 • In both US and Europe higher work travel losses were associated with higher socioeconomic status- i.e not reflecting weakening of underlying economy.[2], [4], [3], [24], [25]
  • 9. U.S Gasoline: Long Term WFH Impacts In periods of relative calm, WFH losses converged at or just below survey expectations for post- pandemic behaviour.[15], [16], [26], [27] However, in long term there may be some further recovery beyond this for various reasons: 1. Non-exclusive WFH activity.[17] 2. Long term career prospects may impeded by WFH regardless of productivity.[28] 3. Distribution of implied WFH losses heavily skewed to tiny minority of individuals.[16] March 2022
  • 10. Euro Passenger Diesel Demand: WFH Impacts • Similarly to U.S; WFH impacts did not materially go below where surveys indicated.[2], [3], [12], [13] • However, were more instances where WFH activity stayed above the survey baselines- particularly following critical events. March 2022
  • 11. Retail & Recreational Travel Activity I • Retail sales growth has been strong in U.S and Europe since early 2021.[29], [30] • In U.S, lower “fear” of covid, vaccine rollout and generous stimulus packages correlated with higher sales activity; and higher retail & recreational travel activity.[9], [29], [31], [32] March 2022
  • 12. Retail & Recreational Travel Activity II • European retail activity becoming less homogenous across income groups in high FP environment. Likely early stages of price-demand reaction.[1], [2], [33], [34] • Duty cuts announced so far (as of 24th March 2022) probably unlikely to avoid significant demand destruction. March 2022
  • 13. Air vs Road Travel I • Before the pandemic EU residents made most of their outbound trips by air (42 % more than car travel).[1] ,[3], [35] • Key concerns included quarantining and border closures. Furthermore, travelers were most afraid of catching Covid through air travel locations (61%) compared to other environments.[36], [37] • Travelers under 44 comprised 50 % of tourists in Europe pre-covid; unlikely to have been vaccinated during peak travel season.[11], [38] • Particularly strong personal driving travel activity in key tourist destinations in France, Italy, Greece, Spain potentially indicate air travel substitution.[1], [2], [3] March 2022
  • 14. Air vs Road Travel II • Jet recovery has been skewed to domestic activity. But there are some early signs that international travel may increase; this could detract from seasonal uptick in summer road travel demand.[1], [39], [40] • ~60-70% of revenue is driven by higher income groups and so less likely to be FP sensitive than road travel.[41], [42], [43], [44], [45] March 2022
  • 15. PART II: Road Freight Activity March 2022
  • 16. Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: Overview • Freight activity, which comprised ~55-60% of road diesel demand prior to the pandemic, performed much better than personal travel.[3], [46], [47], [48], [49], [50] • Major haulage companies, although facing lower operating profits QoQ in Q4, still achieved better returns than in 2019.[51], [52], [53], [54] • Driver shortages are constraining freight growth.[55] • Changes to EU cabotage rules and 4-week break ruling will likely exacerbate existing structural issues.[56] March 2022
  • 17. Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: FP I • Freight is less FP sensitive than passenger travel and unlikely to be as impacted. [3] ,[34] ,[46], [47], [48], [49], [50], [57], [58] • Higher costs whether wage or fuel related have at times been fully absorbed by the commercial customer rather than the trucker necessarily. [3] ,[34] ,[46], [47], [48], [49], [50], [57], [58] • However, higher fuel costs likely to pressure independent truckers and increase market share of large operators (e.g trucker strikes in Spain).[51], [52], [53], [54], [59] March 2022
  • 18. Freight Related Road Diesel Demand: FP II • Downturn in freight travel in 2012 coincided with a sharp downturn in mining activity. This since has not recovered regardless of FP levels.[60], [61] • Several leading haulage companies ascribed the macroeconomic fallout from the sovereign debt crisis as being a key driver for 2012 reduction (i.e not FP rise over 2010-2012).[57], [58] • Decline in activity was skewed to reductions at the national level; permanent shift towards international road freight occurred from 2011.[62] March 2022
  • 19. PART III: Decarbonisation Trends March 2022
  • 20. European EV Development: I • Passenger EVs comprised 2.3% of fleet in 2020 (+1.2 % share YoY), but that has likely grown to over 3 % as of 2021.[63], [64] • BEVs and PHEVs now make up 18 % of new sales (up from 10.5 % in 2020!); outpacing infrastructure growth.[65], [66] • A range of financial incentives are available for purchasers of EV passenger vehicles.[67], [68] • The range of passenger EV models available in Europe is becoming broader with various models at different price levels.[69], [70] March 2022
  • 21. European EV Development: II • Over-reliance on home charging; public infrastructure otherwise incapable of handling current fleet.[1],[71] • Current public charge infrastructure can handle up to ~5- 6 % passenger EV penetration (assuming home charging continues).[1], [65], [66] [71], [72], [73] • Fast-charge points have increased from 7 % of total in 2015 to 13 % as of 2021; on average one every 60 km on European motorways.[66], [74] • If fast charge points increased to 80 % of total could handle ~20% EV market penetration. All charge points should be fast charge or better.[1] • New novel technologies involving super-fast charging batteries are in development.[75], [76], [77] March 2022 *Simulation of average waiting time (including charging) at public charge points in Europe. Assumes exponential interarrival times for new EVs, assumes current rate of home charging continues, assumes no change in VMTs.
  • 22. European EV Development: III • HGVs comprise over 60% of road freight related diesel demand.[1], [3], [46], [47], [48], [49], [50] • Major hurdles to electrifying HGVs; only 0.2% of trucks in use are renewable.[63], [78], [79] • Zero emission HGVs generally twice as expensive as new conventional HGVs, but can be 3-5 times as expensive depending on range and whether fuel cell or battery electric.[78], [80], [81], [82] • Electric HGVs have different charging, space and location requirements to passenger EVs.[79], [83] • $ 30 bn has been invested in disruptive solutions while major delivery companies have announced plans to add hundreds of thousands of EVs in coming years.[84] March 2022
  • 24. Conclusion: • There will be some FP demand response in diesel markets but its relevance likely to be limited to passenger travel. • Likely ~50-75 kbd road diesel losses due to WFH vs 2019 levels in Europe to continue post-covid. • Freight demand robust and underlying fundamentals are strong despite well publicised issues. However, structural issues may constrain growth going forward. • Overall, road diesel demand losses are miniscule compared to refining capacity losses in Europe (i.e 670 kbd CDU shutdowns). • Current EV infrastructure able to support growth in EV passenger in short term, but substantially more development is needed; particularly in fast charge points. • Decarbonisation of freight- largest share of road diesel demand- is likely to be extremely challenged and there are major structural obstacles to this. March 2022
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