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COMMODITY-CORRELATION
OF GOODS
RELIGARE SECURITIES LTD
BY
NAINA GUPTA
ROLL NO: 06
MMS- B (SEM 3)
RELIGARE
• Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) is a financial services group
headquartered in New Delhi, India
• It offers brokerage, health & life insurance, asset
management, Small and medium enterprises (SME) lending,
wealth management, institutional equities and investment
banking services.
• Religare also has offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United
States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Middle East and Sri
Lanka.
COMMODITY….???
• A commodity is any good or service produced by human labor and
offered as a product for general sale on the market.
Commodity market facilitates trading in various Commodities.
• Spot Market and Derivative Market.
• Spot: Against Immediate Delivery only
• Derivative : Futures instruments
COMMODITY MARKET
History of commodity
Chicago businessman formed CBOT in 1848
In 1898 Chicago Mercantile Exchange start trading on Future
contract
For spot market Forward market commission(FMC) setup in 1953
In 1875 establishment of cotton trade association
4 National level exchanges MCX,NSDEX,NMCE,ICEX
Commodity Exchanges
There are 24 commodity exchanges in India
The three major exchanges are:-
• Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX)
• National Commodity and Derivative Exchange. (NCDEX)
• National Multi Commodity Exchange. (NMCE)
Classification of commodity
Agricultural
• Grains
• Pulses
• Edible oils/seeds
• Spices etc
Bullion
• Gold
• Silver
• Palladium etc
Energy
• Crude oil
• Heating oil
• Natural gas
• Furnace oil Etc
Base Metals
• Gold
• Copper
• Zinc
• Aluminium
• Nickel
• Tin
Fundamental Analysis
• In a market economy, price is determined by the
interaction of supply and demand.
• Price movements in commodities using fundamental
analysis can be broken down into these simple formulas:
• Demand > Supply = Higher Prices
• Supply > Demand = Lower Prices
Technical Analysis
• Technical Analysis is a great tool used for forecasting
future prices and trends for short term investors.
• Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast stock
prices on the basis of market-derived data.
• They are looking for trends and patterns in the data
that indicate future price movements.
Technical Indicators
• Rate of Change(ROC)
• Simple Moving Average(SMA)
Rate Of Change(ROC)
• The Rate-of-Change (ROC) indicator, which is also referred to
as simply Momentum, is a pure momentum oscillator that
measures the percent change in price from one period to the
next.
Calculation
• ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] *
100
Simple Moving Average
• A simple moving average is formed by computing the average
price of a security over a specific number of periods.
• Most moving averages are based on closing prices. A 5-day
simple moving average is the five day sum of closing prices
divided by five.
Below is an example of a 5-day moving average evolving over three days
• Daily Closing Prices: 11,12,13,14,15,16,17
• First day of 5-day SMA: (11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15) / 5 = 13
• Second day of 5-day SMA: (12 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16) / 5 = 14
• Third day of 5-day SMA: (13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 17) / 5 = 15
Comparison of Agricultural Goods
SOYBEAN CORN
V/S
Soybean & Corn
• 2006-2008 -Between 2006 and 2008 average world prices
increase for corn by 125% and soybeans by 107%.
• 2009-2010- The prices for the 2009 corn crop continue to
slowly climb as corn demand increases in 2010 & soybean has
slightly gone down.
• 2013-2014-The prices for soybean has high in 2013 and corn
prices has decreased in 2013.
• The price for soybean will be high but corn prices would
decreased in 2014.
News on soybean & corn
• The new government sets the prices to safeguard farmer
incomes and provides subsidies on sales of grain and cooking
oil to the poor.
• The minimum rates of corn & soybeans may be kept at levels
now said the officials, citing the panel recommendations.
• The government buys black soybeans at 2,500 rupees per 100
kilograms, yellow soybeans at 2,560 rupees, and corn at 1,310
rupees.
Rate Of Change(ROC)
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
Apr-01 Oct-06 Apr-12
Maize (corn) ROC -
Maize (corn) ROC -
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Soybeans ROC
Soybeans ROC
Correlation Of (ROC)
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14
Maize (corn) ROC -
Soybeans ROC -
Simple Moving Average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Maize (corn) Price
(US Dollars per
Metric Ton)
SMA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Soybeans Price (US
Dollars per Metric Ton)
SMA
Comparison of Energy
NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL
V/S
Natural Gas & Crude oil
• 2008-2012-The price of natural gas i.e LPG & CNG had
increased & there was an increase in fuel costs due in large
part to a worldwide increase in demand for crude oil.
• 2013-2014-India was the fourth-largest consumer of crude oil
and petroleum products in the world in 2013, after the United
States, China, and Japan. The country depends heavily on
imported crude oil, mostly from the Middle East.
News on Natural Gas & Crude oil
• The BJP, elected as the majority party in May 2014 to govern
India in the following five years, faces challenges to meet the
country’s growing energy demand by securing affordable
energy supplies and attracting investment for infrastructure
development.
• Highly regulated fuel prices for consumers, fuel subsidies that
are shouldered by the government and state-owned upstream
companies, and inconsistent energy sector reform currently
hinder energy project investment.
Crude Oil (petroleum) ROC
Rate Of Change(ROC)
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Natural Gas ROC
Natural Gas ROC
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
Jul-98 Jan-04 Jul-09 Dec-14
Crude Oil
(petroleum) ROC
RATE OF CHANGE(ROC)
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14
Natural Gas ROC -
Crude Oil (petroleum) ROC -
CORRELATION OF(ROC)
Simple Moving Average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-05
Dec-05
Nov-06
Oct-07
Sep-08
Aug-09
Jul-10
Jun-11
May-12
Apr-13
Mar-14
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil
(petroleum) Price
(US Dollars per
Barrel)
SMA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas Price
(US Dollars per
Million Metric
British Thermal
Unit)
SMA
Comparison of Bullions
GOLD SILVER
V/S
Gold & Silver
• 2008-2012-Between 2008 and 2012, the value of gold
increased dramatically, as is evidenced by the 101.1-percent
surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold..
• In 2008 to 2012 –The silver market dropped from a high of
close to $21 per ounce to a low of $9 per ounce, which is
around a 60% drop in the span of 8 months.
• 2013-2014-The silver and gold price has increased from 2013
& it would continue till 2014.
News on Gold & Silver
• The government surprised bullion markets by keeping the
import duty on gold and silver unchanged at 10 per cent in its
Union Budget for 2014-15.
• It has disappointing traders who had expected a relaxation of
the nation's tough bullion import curbs.
• India is the world's second-largest consumer of the precious
metal and it imports nearly all of its gold.
Rate Of Change(ROC)
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Gold ROC
Gold ROC
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Silver ROC
Silver ROC
Correlation of (ROC)
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14
Gold ROC
Silver ROC
Simple Moving Average
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Gold
Gold Price (US
Dollars per Troy
Ounce)
Sma
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14
Silver
Silver Price (US
cents per Troy
Ounce)
SMA
COMMODITY  MARKET (2)
COMMODITY  MARKET (2)

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COMMODITY MARKET (2)

  • 1. COMMODITY-CORRELATION OF GOODS RELIGARE SECURITIES LTD BY NAINA GUPTA ROLL NO: 06 MMS- B (SEM 3)
  • 2. RELIGARE • Religare Enterprises Limited (REL) is a financial services group headquartered in New Delhi, India • It offers brokerage, health & life insurance, asset management, Small and medium enterprises (SME) lending, wealth management, institutional equities and investment banking services. • Religare also has offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Middle East and Sri Lanka.
  • 3. COMMODITY….??? • A commodity is any good or service produced by human labor and offered as a product for general sale on the market. Commodity market facilitates trading in various Commodities. • Spot Market and Derivative Market. • Spot: Against Immediate Delivery only • Derivative : Futures instruments
  • 5. History of commodity Chicago businessman formed CBOT in 1848 In 1898 Chicago Mercantile Exchange start trading on Future contract For spot market Forward market commission(FMC) setup in 1953 In 1875 establishment of cotton trade association 4 National level exchanges MCX,NSDEX,NMCE,ICEX
  • 6. Commodity Exchanges There are 24 commodity exchanges in India The three major exchanges are:- • Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX) • National Commodity and Derivative Exchange. (NCDEX) • National Multi Commodity Exchange. (NMCE)
  • 7. Classification of commodity Agricultural • Grains • Pulses • Edible oils/seeds • Spices etc Bullion • Gold • Silver • Palladium etc Energy • Crude oil • Heating oil • Natural gas • Furnace oil Etc Base Metals • Gold • Copper • Zinc • Aluminium • Nickel • Tin
  • 8. Fundamental Analysis • In a market economy, price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand. • Price movements in commodities using fundamental analysis can be broken down into these simple formulas: • Demand > Supply = Higher Prices • Supply > Demand = Lower Prices
  • 9. Technical Analysis • Technical Analysis is a great tool used for forecasting future prices and trends for short term investors. • Technical analysis is the attempt to forecast stock prices on the basis of market-derived data. • They are looking for trends and patterns in the data that indicate future price movements.
  • 10. Technical Indicators • Rate of Change(ROC) • Simple Moving Average(SMA)
  • 11. Rate Of Change(ROC) • The Rate-of-Change (ROC) indicator, which is also referred to as simply Momentum, is a pure momentum oscillator that measures the percent change in price from one period to the next. Calculation • ROC = [(Close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago)] * 100
  • 12. Simple Moving Average • A simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specific number of periods. • Most moving averages are based on closing prices. A 5-day simple moving average is the five day sum of closing prices divided by five. Below is an example of a 5-day moving average evolving over three days • Daily Closing Prices: 11,12,13,14,15,16,17 • First day of 5-day SMA: (11 + 12 + 13 + 14 + 15) / 5 = 13 • Second day of 5-day SMA: (12 + 13 + 14 + 15 + 16) / 5 = 14 • Third day of 5-day SMA: (13 + 14 + 15 + 16 + 17) / 5 = 15
  • 13. Comparison of Agricultural Goods SOYBEAN CORN V/S
  • 14. Soybean & Corn • 2006-2008 -Between 2006 and 2008 average world prices increase for corn by 125% and soybeans by 107%. • 2009-2010- The prices for the 2009 corn crop continue to slowly climb as corn demand increases in 2010 & soybean has slightly gone down. • 2013-2014-The prices for soybean has high in 2013 and corn prices has decreased in 2013. • The price for soybean will be high but corn prices would decreased in 2014.
  • 15. News on soybean & corn • The new government sets the prices to safeguard farmer incomes and provides subsidies on sales of grain and cooking oil to the poor. • The minimum rates of corn & soybeans may be kept at levels now said the officials, citing the panel recommendations. • The government buys black soybeans at 2,500 rupees per 100 kilograms, yellow soybeans at 2,560 rupees, and corn at 1,310 rupees.
  • 16. Rate Of Change(ROC) -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% Apr-01 Oct-06 Apr-12 Maize (corn) ROC - Maize (corn) ROC - -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Soybeans ROC Soybeans ROC
  • 17. Correlation Of (ROC) -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 Maize (corn) ROC - Soybeans ROC -
  • 18. Simple Moving Average 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Maize (corn) Price (US Dollars per Metric Ton) SMA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Soybeans Price (US Dollars per Metric Ton) SMA
  • 19. Comparison of Energy NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL V/S
  • 20. Natural Gas & Crude oil • 2008-2012-The price of natural gas i.e LPG & CNG had increased & there was an increase in fuel costs due in large part to a worldwide increase in demand for crude oil. • 2013-2014-India was the fourth-largest consumer of crude oil and petroleum products in the world in 2013, after the United States, China, and Japan. The country depends heavily on imported crude oil, mostly from the Middle East.
  • 21. News on Natural Gas & Crude oil • The BJP, elected as the majority party in May 2014 to govern India in the following five years, faces challenges to meet the country’s growing energy demand by securing affordable energy supplies and attracting investment for infrastructure development. • Highly regulated fuel prices for consumers, fuel subsidies that are shouldered by the government and state-owned upstream companies, and inconsistent energy sector reform currently hinder energy project investment.
  • 22. Crude Oil (petroleum) ROC Rate Of Change(ROC) -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Natural Gas ROC Natural Gas ROC -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% Jul-98 Jan-04 Jul-09 Dec-14 Crude Oil (petroleum) ROC
  • 23. RATE OF CHANGE(ROC) -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 Natural Gas ROC - Crude Oil (petroleum) ROC - CORRELATION OF(ROC)
  • 24. Simple Moving Average 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jan-05 Dec-05 Nov-06 Oct-07 Sep-08 Aug-09 Jul-10 Jun-11 May-12 Apr-13 Mar-14 CRUDE OIL Crude Oil (petroleum) Price (US Dollars per Barrel) SMA 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 NATURAL GAS Natural Gas Price (US Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit) SMA
  • 26. Gold & Silver • 2008-2012-Between 2008 and 2012, the value of gold increased dramatically, as is evidenced by the 101.1-percent surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for gold.. • In 2008 to 2012 –The silver market dropped from a high of close to $21 per ounce to a low of $9 per ounce, which is around a 60% drop in the span of 8 months. • 2013-2014-The silver and gold price has increased from 2013 & it would continue till 2014.
  • 27. News on Gold & Silver • The government surprised bullion markets by keeping the import duty on gold and silver unchanged at 10 per cent in its Union Budget for 2014-15. • It has disappointing traders who had expected a relaxation of the nation's tough bullion import curbs. • India is the world's second-largest consumer of the precious metal and it imports nearly all of its gold.
  • 28. Rate Of Change(ROC) -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Gold ROC Gold ROC -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Silver ROC Silver ROC
  • 29. Correlation of (ROC) -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 Feb-08 Jul-09 Nov-10 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 Gold ROC Silver ROC
  • 30. Simple Moving Average 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Gold Gold Price (US Dollars per Troy Ounce) Sma 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09 Apr-12 Dec-14 Silver Silver Price (US cents per Troy Ounce) SMA