The Impact of Official Bilingualism on the Geographic Mobility of New Brunswickers ​ ​ Evidence from Census Data​ 2001 - 2016​

1. The Impact of Official Bilingualism on the
Geographic Mobility of New Brunswickers
Evidence from Census Data
2001 - 2016
Dr. J. C. Herb Emery
Bethany Daigle
Li Wang
PETL KT Day
September 10th, 2019
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2. Research Question
Does the acquisition of a second official language in New
Brunswick influence the geographic mobility of New
Brunswickers?
Why is this question important to answer?
• NB has high levels of out-migration and intra-provincial migration (rural to
urban, and north to south).
• Language attributes have not been clearly examined by researchers investigating
geographic mobility.

3. Defining ‘Geographic Mobility’
• Out-migration - moving out of NB
• Intra-provincial migration - moving within NB
to a different sub-provincial region
• 2 Census Metropolitan Areas
• 5 Census Agglomerations
• 5 non-CMA/CAs

4. Data and Sample
2006 and 2016 Censuses of Population & 2011 National Household Survey
• Sample: All persons 18-64 with English or French mother tongue, residing in New
Brunswick five years prior to the Census date.
• NB Stayers = still living in NB in the Census year
• Out-migrants = living elsewhere in Canada in the Census year
NB Stayers = Intra-provincial Migrants + No Movement Stayers
• Intra-provincial Migrants = living in a different sub-provincial region in NB in the Census
year than 5 years prior
• No Movement Stayers = living in the same sub-provincial region in NB in the Census
year and 5 years prior

5. Descriptive Statistics
Out-migrants VS NB Stayers
NB Stayers
Out-migrants
Intercensal Periods
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016
NB Stayers Weighted
Obs
396,895 405,800 374,350
Rate(s) 93% 94% 94%
Out-migrants Weighted
Obs
30,300 26,440 25,815
Rate(s) 7% 6% 6%

6. Descriptive Statistics
rate of out-migration by origins & mother tongue
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
English Mother Tongue NBers
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
French Mother Tongue NBers
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

7. Descriptive Statistics
Intra-provincial Migrants VS No Movement Stayers
Intercensal Periods
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016
No Movement
Stayers in NB
Weighted
Obs
370,780 379,355 352,390
Rate(s) 93% 93% 94%
Intra-
provincial
migrants
Weighted
Obs
26,115 26,445 21,960
Rate(s) 7% 7% 6%
No Movement
Stayers
Intra-provincial
Migrants

8. Descriptive Statistics
rate of intra-provincial migration by origins & mother tongue
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
English Mother Tongue NBers
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
French Mother Tongue NBers
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

9. • Previous descriptive statistics are unconditional means which could
be co-related to other factors (e.g. age) influencing NBers’ mobility.
• Logistic regression models
• identify the independent effect of language on mobility after accounting for other
factors (e.g. age, gender, marital status, education, origins) influencing mobility.
• ‘odds-ratios’ = the conditional likelihood of an event will
occur relative to reference subject.
• (OR=1, just as likely; OR>1, more likely; OR<1 less likely)
Regression Analysis

10. Results
out-migration by characteristics confirm literature
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
18 to 24 (Reference)
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Single (NM)
Married/C-Laws (Reference)
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
No High School
High school (Reference)
Below Bachelor
Bachelor
Honor's
Medical
Master's
PhD
Odds-ratios of Men Leaving NB
by Characteristics
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
18 to 24 (Reference)
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Single (NM)
Married/C-Laws (Reference)
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
No High School
High school (Reference)
Below Bachelor
Bachelor
Honor's
Medical
Master's
PhD
Odds-ratios of Women Leaving NB
by Characteristics
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

11. Results
out-migration by origins
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Moncton (Reference)
Saint John
Fredericton
Bathurst
Miramichi
Campbellton
Edmundston
Central NB
Southwest NB
Southeast NB
Northwest NB
Northeast NB
Odds-ratios of Women Leaving NB
by Origins
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Moncton (Reference)
Saint John
Fredericton
Bathurst
Miramichi
Campbellton
Edmundston
Central NB
Southwest NB
Southeast NB
Northwest NB
Northeast NB
Odds-ratios of Men Leaving NB
by Origins
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

12. Results
out-migration by *linguistic attributes*
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Unilingual English
(reference)
Unilingual French
Anglophone Bilingual
Francophone Bilingual
Odds-ratios of Men Leaving NB
by *Language Attributes*
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Unilingual English
(reference)
Unilingual French
Anglophone Bilingual
Francophone Bilingual
Odds-ratios of Women Leaving NB
by *Language Attributes*
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

13. Results
intra-provincial migration by characteristics confirm literature
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
18 to 24 (reference)
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Single (NM)
Married/C-Laws (reference)
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
No High School
High school (reference)
Below Bachelor
Bachelor
Honor's
Medical
Master's
PhD
Odds-ratios of Men Relocating within NB
by Characteristics
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
18 to 24 (Reference）
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
Single (NM)
Married/C-Laws (Reference)
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
No High School
High school (Reference)
Below Bachelor
Bachelor
Honor's
Medical
Master's
PhD
Odds-ratios of Women Relocating within NB
by Characteristics
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

14. Results
intra-provincial migration by origins
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Moncton (reference)
Saint John
Fredericton
Bathurst
Miramichi
Campbellton
Edmundston
Central NB
Southwest NB
Southeast NB
Northwest NB
Northeast NB
Odds-ratios of Men Relocating within NB
by Origins
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Moncton (reference)
Saint John
Fredericton
Bathurst
Miramichi
Campbellton
Edmundston
Central NB
Southwest NB
Southeast NB
Northwest NB
Northeast NB
Odds-ratios of Women Relocating within NB
by Origins
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

15. Results
intra-provincial migration by *linguistic attribute*
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Unilingual English (reference)
Unilingual French
Anglophone Bilingual
Francophone Bilingual
Odds-ratios of Men Relocating Within NB
by *Language Attributes*
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
Unilingual English (reference)
Unilingual French
Anglophone Bilingual
Francophone Bilingual
Odds-ratios of Women Relocating Within NB
by *Language Attributes*
2011-2016 2006-2011 2001-2006

16. Summary and Conclusion
• Second official language acquisition has little or no influence on
anglophone out-migration from New Brunswick.
• Second official language acquisition generally improves labour
market efficiency in New Brunswick by increasing geographic
mobility of both Anglophones and Francophones.

17. Future Directions
• Data available is cross-sectional, thus we could only declare co-
relations between official bilingualism and geographic mobility.
• Longitudinal data is needed for drawing causality between
acquisition of a second official language on their inter- and intra-
provincial movements.

18. Questions
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19. Reference
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discussion/general/545887-multinomial-logit-interpretation-rrr-vs-cor
Emery et al (work in progress, can’t be cited yet)
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ISI
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M. Sheller, J. Urry The new mobilities paradigm
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20. Acknowledgement
• This study is conducted in the New Brunswick Research Data
Center (RDC) at the University of New Brunswick, with
confidential data provided by Statistics Canada.
• We have examined three consecutive intercensal surveys: 2006
Census of Population, 2011 National Household Survey and
2016 Census of Population, and all observations in our analysis
are weighted and rounded to nearest 5 for meeting the RDC
confidentiality guideline.