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Demographic
Challenges
Michael Haan, PhD
Canada Research Chair in Population and Social Policy
University of New Brunswick...
Outline
1. Basic demographic trends
2. Migration is a primary driver of demographic and economic
change.
3. Trends in Intr...
What we can/can’t do with Demography
Point #1:Basic Demographic Trends
Population of Canadian Provinces, 1851-2011
160 years of Population Change in Canada
Fertility rates
Fertility Rates in 1951 (National rank)
• Prince Edward Island: 5.1 (1)
• Nova Scotia: 4.8 (4)
• Newfoundl...
New Brunswick’s Population
Pyramid, 1956-2006
• http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-
sa/97-551/vignettes...
Canada’s Demographic Haves
and Have Nots
• As of 2001: % of living population residing in province of
birth (Ontario):
• N...
New Brunswick, 2011
.
Growth Sources #2 + 3:
Immigration and Migration
Source: Statistics Canada’s Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada...
Growth trends, 2012 New
Brunswick
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012004/t323-eng.htm
Point #2: Migration drives
demographic and economic
change.
Total Dependency Ratio, 1991
Total Dependency Ratio, 1996
Total Dependency Ratio, 2001
Total Dependency Ratio, 2006
Total Dependency Ratio, 2011
Population < age 15, 1991
Population < age 15, 1996
Population < age 15, 2001
Population < age 15, 2006
Population < age 15, 2011
Proportion age 65+, 1991
Proportion age 65+, 1996
Proportion age 65+, 2001
Proportion age 65+, 2006
Proportion age 65+, 2011
.
.
Population Change, 1991-2011
Rural Decline, 2006-2011
Point 3: Implications for
housing and poverty
EmploymentGrowth in NB, 1996-2006
New Brunswick: Fast Facts
1. % Interprovincial employees: 2% of the workforce (~10% in
Campbellton-Miramichi).
2. Employme...
Conclusion: Implications for the
housing and poverty
Get ready for:
1. Declines in child poverty.
2. A growth in poverty a...
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NBNPHA 2014 Conference Saint John Keynote - Dr. Michael Haan New Brunswick’s demographic and housing challenges

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NBNPHA 2014 Conference Saint John Keynote - Dr. Michael Haan New Brunswick’s demographic and housing challenges

  1. 1. Demographic Challenges Michael Haan, PhD Canada Research Chair in Population and Social Policy University of New Brunswick mhaan@unb.ca Demography, Poverty & Affordable Housing in New Brunswick
  2. 2. Outline 1. Basic demographic trends 2. Migration is a primary driver of demographic and economic change. 3. Trends in Intra-provincial migration 4. Implications for housing
  3. 3. What we can/can’t do with Demography
  4. 4. Point #1:Basic Demographic Trends
  5. 5. Population of Canadian Provinces, 1851-2011 160 years of Population Change in Canada
  6. 6. Fertility rates Fertility Rates in 1951 (National rank) • Prince Edward Island: 5.1 (1) • Nova Scotia: 4.8 (4) • Newfoundland/Labrador: 4.9 (3) • New Brunswick: 5.0 (2) Birth Rates in 2011 (National rank) • Prince Edward Island: 1.48 (7) • Nova Scotia: 1.40 (9) • Newfoundland/Labrador: 1.34 (10) • New Brunswick: 1.41 (8)
  7. 7. New Brunswick’s Population Pyramid, 1956-2006 • http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2006/as- sa/97-551/vignettes/nb06pymd.swf
  8. 8. Canada’s Demographic Haves and Have Nots • As of 2001: % of living population residing in province of birth (Ontario): • Newfoundland/Labrador: 70.1% (13.82%) • Prince Edward Island: 69.9% (11.69%) • Nova Scotia: 74.0% (12.32%) • New Brunswick: 73.5% (9.76%) • Quebec: 92.0% (5.19%) • Ontario: 90.4% • Manitoba: 72.6% (6.4%) • Saskatchewan: 64.8% (4.23%) • Alberta: 81.1% (2.95%) • British Columbia: 87.9% (3.06%)
  9. 9. New Brunswick, 2011 .
  10. 10. Growth Sources #2 + 3: Immigration and Migration Source: Statistics Canada’s Report on the Demographic Situation in Canada, 2009-2036
  11. 11. Growth trends, 2012 New Brunswick http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-x/2012004/t323-eng.htm
  12. 12. Point #2: Migration drives demographic and economic change.
  13. 13. Total Dependency Ratio, 1991
  14. 14. Total Dependency Ratio, 1996
  15. 15. Total Dependency Ratio, 2001
  16. 16. Total Dependency Ratio, 2006
  17. 17. Total Dependency Ratio, 2011
  18. 18. Population < age 15, 1991
  19. 19. Population < age 15, 1996
  20. 20. Population < age 15, 2001
  21. 21. Population < age 15, 2006
  22. 22. Population < age 15, 2011
  23. 23. Proportion age 65+, 1991
  24. 24. Proportion age 65+, 1996
  25. 25. Proportion age 65+, 2001
  26. 26. Proportion age 65+, 2006
  27. 27. Proportion age 65+, 2011
  28. 28. . .
  29. 29. Population Change, 1991-2011
  30. 30. Rural Decline, 2006-2011
  31. 31. Point 3: Implications for housing and poverty
  32. 32. EmploymentGrowth in NB, 1996-2006
  33. 33. New Brunswick: Fast Facts 1. % Interprovincial employees: 2% of the workforce (~10% in Campbellton-Miramichi). 2. Employment Insurance Recipients: 28% (~44% in Campbellton-Miramichi). 1. 21% of taxfilers have no employment income whatsoever. 3. Low income: 14% (17% in Campbellton-Miramichi) 4. Pension Plan: 35% (30% in Edmunston-Woodstock).
  34. 34. Conclusion: Implications for the housing and poverty Get ready for: 1. Declines in child poverty. 2. A growth in poverty among seniors. 3. New forms of poverty 1. Immigrants 2. Lone parents (new types of lone parents) 3. Mismatched people. 4. Housing shortages alongside growing vacancies.

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