AFG Overview: 15-21AUG2015
ANA Base with NATO Access
(U) TAAC – N: (TB, IMU)
(U) Insurgent (INS) attacks are reported as below
average for time of year while overall FS2015 averages
slightly above the norm. Activity is largely focused in
Kunduz, Baghlan Provinces, and Balk Province. INS
efforts are largely focused on establishing FoM.
(U) Kunduz Province: On 09AUG2015, an INS
reportedly detonated a SVBIED in Khanabad District
which killed at least 21 civilians.
(U) TAAC – E: (TB, HQN, ISIS)
(U) The threat of ISIS expansion in Nangarhar
Province has been the focus of TB efforts and likely the
reason for limited kinetic attacks against ANDSF this past
week. It’s unknown if attacks are down overall in the
province. Additionally, the removal of a mid-tier INS CDR
in Laghman Province has constrained the capability of
local cells executing complex attacks against ANDSF,
degrading TB C2. TTPs are likely to adapt and change as
a new C2 is implemented.
(U) Kunar Province: On 17AUG2015 the PAKMIL
received Small Arms Fire (SAF) from an unknown
enemy/position prompting an engagement between
Afghan Border Patrol (ABP) and PAKMIL during which
PAKMIL utilized IDF. The engagement ended in cease
fire after approx 2 hours; 4xABP KIA and 1xPAKMIL WIA.
(U) TAAC – S: (TB)
(U) Kinetic activity in Kandahar has decreased due to
focus on the poppy harvest that last through September
and lack of coordination among TB Senior Leadership
(TBSL) following appointment of new Supreme Leader.
ANDSF in Helmand retook the Now Zad District Center
(DC), though limited ANA coordination with police will
likely restrict their ability to maintain its security as INS
target ANDSF CPs to improve FoM in northern Helmand
while reducing GIRoA legitimacy.
(U) Daikundi Province: TB temporarily blocked an
unknown location of the Kabul-Daikundi HWY. TB will
likely continue establishing CPs to facilitate MWE and
poppy following the harvest degrading route security.
(U) TAAC – W: (TB)
(U) INS in northern Herat are likely collecting
ammunition and explosives ISO attack plans potentially
targeting DCs. PBIED and VBIEDs remain credible
threats IVO Herat City, FSB Herat, and Camp Zafar.
(U) Herat Province: On 18JUL, 6x Afghan police
officers were killed by a roadside IED.
(U) War horse Assessment:
(U) TB internal power struggles will likely result in a limited ability to coordinate strategic scale operations as the
TBSL remain conflicted over replacement of their Supreme Leader. In TAAC-S, the TB will likely sustain hawala
threat financing, narcotics facilitation, and FoM operations consistent with activities following previous poppy
harvests. While the poppy harvest will likely result in short term economic gain, historically, GIRoA legitimacy is
undermined through TB control of the local markets and INS “tax collecting” operations. In TAAC-E, TICs between
ABP and PAKMIL could result in INS exploiting tensions; increasing the facilitation of MWE through routes south of
Torkam gate following engagements. This will continue to undermine the effectiveness of the ABP and likely be
used to resupply and reinforce INS networks in both TAAC-E and TAAC-S. Conversely to TB efforts, the continuing
conflict between TB and ISIS does create an opportunity for GIRoA to establish legitimacy through effective security
ANA Base with NATO Access
AFGHANISTAN UPDATE 15-21 AUGUST
ANA Base with NATO Access
Two Soldiers Killed
On Aug 26, 2015, on a military base located in Kabul, two US
soldiers were shot and killed by men in ANSF uniforms. NATO had
said that the shooter opened fire on a vehicle with international
troops inside. Both shooters were killed shortly after NATO forces
returned fire. This is the third insider attack this year the previous
two attacks took place at the Kabul airport and inside the
compound of the governor of Jalalabad.
Afghanistan's Largest girls' School
Over this past summer the largest girls' school was opened Mazar-i-
Sharif. The new school is 18,000 square feet and includes 26
classrooms, state of the art bathrooms and two large courtyards.
The opening of this school provides a better future to afghan girls
who would other wise be married off or forced into the sex trade.
New Taliban Amir Accepts al Qaeda’s Oath of Allegiance
Al-Qaeda has formally released their oath of allegiance to the New
Taliban leadership. Al- Qaeda had taken an oath of allegiance to
previous Taliban leader Mullah Omar, But Omar had never released
a statement acknowledging or accepting the oath. However new
leadership has publically accepted Al-Qaeda’s oath, releasing a
statement made by Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour the new
Amir (leader) of the Taliban.
Chinese Ambassador Visits Kandahar
On AUG 30, 2015 the Chinese ambassador met with local business
men and officials to asses problems in the area and ways to fix
them. Afghan officials and businessmen are pushing for more
involvement from the Chinese government in rebuilding the
economy. Businessmen are asking for bilateral trade and economic
Pakistan Demands Afghanistan Protect Its Diplomatic Staff
Afghans have been supposedly harassing Pakistani diplomats who
do not reside on the embassy compound. After a Pakistani
diplomat was attempted to be kidnapped by unknown men;
Foreign Ministry spokesman Qazi Kahlilullah has urged Afghanistan
to provide better protection Pakistani diplomatic staff in Kabul to
prevent incidents from happening.
Jihadists Say Nephew of 9/11 Mastermind Killed in Raid by
Idris al Balushi, a senior planner in Al Qaeda and nephew of KSM
was claimed to have been killed during a ISI raid that took place in
Karachi, Pakistan. His death has been confirmed by Al Qaeda senior
leader Sanafi al Nasr but no formal martyrdom statement has been
released by Al Qaeda. Nasr has been known to assist other Al
Qaeda leaders faking their death to include his own after he
suffered from severe injuries.
RED WARRIOR ASSESSMENT
• Three green on blue attacks over the past year have taken place in eastern Afghanistan, two out of three took place in Kabul, the other
in Jalalabad. In the Taliban’s spring offensive announcement they list their main target as Afghan Security Forces, US and Coalition
Forces. This could be a result of the change from US and Coalition Forces to ANFS leading and conducting ground missions. Placing
NATO forces into a training role to Afghan forces.
• Since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan in the 1990s, Afghan females were forbidden from attending school and often taught in
secret. Recently, even with schools being built for Afghan girls, only 1/3 are able to attend school, leaving almost 3 million girls without
educational opportunities. The recent opening of the largest all girls school is a huge step forward for Afghan female education.
Females living in Mazar-i-Sharif now have the ability to go to school in a safe learning environment.
• After Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour released a pro Al-Qaeda statement in June naming Al-Qaeda’s leaders as the “heroes of the
current jihadist era”, Ayman al Zawahiri took an oath of allegiance to the new Taliban leader. The two groups have had ties for many
years and recently Al Qaeda has relied heavily on Taliban financial and logistic support because of a recent ISI raid in Karachi, Pakistan.
The raid resulted in the death of senior Al Qaeda leader Idris al Balushi. ISI has been under scrutiny by the international community for
supporting terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. ISI taking action against Al Qaeda shows that ISI is beginning to increase its
counterterrorism role. China has offered to help Afghanistan economically by providing training to 3,000 government workers and 500
scholarships to Afghan school children. By assisting with economic stabilization of Afghanistan, China will be able to expand their
regional influence into Southwest Asia with expectations of gaining access to natural resources needed for continued economic
growth of both nations.