3. Table of Contents
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................4
Methodology.................................................................................................................................................4
Basic Concepts ............................................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined.
Water Security ..............................................................................................................................................4
Food Security ................................................................................................................................................5
Figure-1: Conceptual Framework of Food Secuirty ..............................................................................6
Energy Security .............................................................................................................................................6
Current status ...............................................................................................................................................7
Water ........................................................................................................................................................7
Food Security ............................................................................................................................................8
Energy .......................................................................................................................................................9
Figure-2 Energy Consumption.............................................................................................................10
Future Scenario for Water, Food and Energy .............................................................................................11
Figure 3: Increased water requirement for the production of food will increase many folds in future
............................................................................................................................................................14
Water Food and Energy Nexus...................................................................................................................15
Figure 4: Integrated Solution Approach..............................................................................................17
Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Human Security .......................................................................................18
Figure 5: Maslow pyramid ..................................................................................................................18
Non Traditional Security Threat..................................................................................................................18
Water Conflicts .......................................................................................................................................19
Conflicts on Food ....................................................................................................................................19
Conflicts over energy ..............................................................................................................................20
Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................21
Recommendations..................................................................................................................................21
Global Set Up ..........................................................................................................................................22
Figure: 6 Global System......................................................................................................................22
National System......................................................................................................................................23
Figure 7: National System ...................................................................................................................23
4. Non-Traditional Security Threats and
Global Governance: A case study of
Water-Food-Energy Nexus
Introduction
The world today is faced with multiple yet integrated problems ranging from depleting basic
needs such as food, water, and energy to the crimes committed by using most sophisticated
technologies and products, e.g. space, cyber, etc. On the one hand, the gravity of problems is
increasing with the passage of time; while on the other efforts to tackle these problems are
considerably lagging behind. In addition, climate change has a multiplier effect on these
problems thus impacting access and provision, as well as quality and quantity of water, food,
energy, livelihoods, and so on.
Water, food and energy are the basic necessities of life. In olden times, all the civilizations
emerged and flourished around these three elements. This paper will discuss the nexus between
water, food and energy while analyzing the interaction among these three areas. . Finally, it will
look into the security implications of this nexus and analyze global governance system to find
appropriate solutions.
Methodology
Both the qualitative and quantitative tools will be applied in this paper. The qualitative part will
be completed through desk research and literature review whereas the quantitative part will be
completed through field visits and interviews of different people in the field. Random sampling
technique would be used to select the respondents. On the basis of these interviews, two case
studies would be developed.
Water Security
Water is the fundamental and necessary element for life on the planet earth. The preference for
humans to settle in an area was based on the availability of water hence most of the initial
settlements and cities were developed along the river lines. History illustrates that one of the
factors for migration was shortage of water in the area of origin. Ancient Egyptian civilization
along the lower reaches of Nile River and Indus valley civilization along Indus River may be
quoted in this regard.
The multiple uses of water in our daily life such as drinking, sanitation, washing, food
production, etc., show the importance of water and call for its security. This importance has been
5. emphasized by the UN where access to safe drinking water and sanitation is considered a basic
need (UNDP 2000). However, the goal does not satisfy the multi-dimensional phenomenon
around water related issues. Important areas where water is required such as ecosystem services,
agricultural and industrial needs, etc. are missing in the demarcation. The same areas are
considered pertinent in the projected situation of scarcity and changing climate, as pointed out by
UNEP (2010, p. ) in the following lines:
Water security represents a unifying element supplying humanity with drinking water,
hygiene and sanitation, food and fish, industrial resources, energy, transportation and
natural amenities, all dependent upon maintaining ecosystem health and productivity.
Food Security
FAO (1996, p. ) defined food security as:
When all people, at all time, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and
nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy
life.
Swaminathan (1998) classified the evaluation of food security definition in the following
periods;
1. 1940-60- Production or physical availability
2. 1970- Access to food produced
3. 1980- Food security take consideration at individual level
4. 1990- Biologically absorption for an active life and participation in society
Recently, Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) included stability as one of the indicators in
food security conceptual framework (Figure-1).
6. Figure-1: Conceptual Framework of Food Security
Food is the basic element for survival, and for healthy and active life, which is necessary to take
part in economic activities and achieve prosperity. On the contrary, food insecurity can cause
bad health and poverty. In developing and least developed countries, economic access enabling
food access and absorption of food are the most pressing issues.
Energy Security
Today’s modern life is critically dependent on and revolves around different forms of energy,
which is a prerequisite for economic development and to sustain an improved lifestyle. The
quest of developing countries to industrialize, and developed countries to sustain their
development, has led to increase in energy demand putting pressure on the available resources.
This has led to finding ways and means to curb an unsustainable use of available energy
resources.
Although, energy security is an old discourse, it is now becoming more intense, complicated and
urgent due to depleting resources. The situation has been exacerbated in present times coupled
with the phenomena of climate change where use of some energy forms is harmful to the
environment. AGECC (2010, p. ) defines energy security as:
“Access to clean, reliable and affordable energy services for cooking and heating,
lighting, communications and productive uses while respecting the environmental
concerns”.
7. International Energy Association defines energy security as: “uninterrupted availability of
energy resources at affordable prices”.
Alternative or renewable energy resources are gaining more and more importance in the debate
on energy sustainability and security, especially in the context of climate change. Developed
countries are focusing on renewable energy resources; however developing countries and
specifically emerging economies are spearheading huge investments in exploring and installing
renewable energy options, e.g. China in solar and wind energy.
Current status
Water
The current state of water, food and energy is alarming, as the world is facing problems to
manage these resources efficiently. Water is becoming a scarce commodity in Asia and Africa
due to an ever increasing trend. It is a recognized fact that only 2.5 per cent of water in the world
is available for consumption whereas the remaining 97.5 per cent is ocean water. The per capita
availability of water at global level is decreasing. The situation is getting worse with an increase
in population, demand of water in other sectors, and impact of climate change. It is estimated
that about 97 per cent of available freshwater is stored underground or in the form of ice while
the planet has only 3 per cent available for all purposes (UN 2010). However, water is not
equally distributed among countries and 10 countries namely Brazil, Russia, China, USA,
Canada, Indonesia, Columbia, DRC, India, and Tajikistan and Uzbekistan possess almost 60 per
cent of this available freshwater (Helvi 2013). The available consumable water is also not
equally distributed within a country; some regions have more and some less.
Major problem is overconsumption of water for different purposes, including agriculture,
industry, energy, drinking and sanitation. Continuity of this trend will and the objective of
emerging middle class to achieve the lifestyle of north would require 3.5 planet earth equivalent
times’ resources (UNESCO 2012). Some countries are already over exploiting the available
resources to meet their national demands. It is learnt that a number of countries are over
exploiting their groundwater resources. Mexico, China and India are exploiting its ground
resources 20, 26 and 56 per cent more than the standard level of extraction (UNDP 2008).
At present, 70 per cent of all available freshwater is used in agriculture followed by energy
sector, which consumes 20 per cent, and the third largest is the domestic use, i.e. only 10 per cent
(FAO 2011).
8. Table: 1 Three high water consuming sectors
Sector Water Use (Percent)
Agriculture 70
Industry 20
Domestic 10
Pollution of water is another area of concern. About 80 per cent of untreated affluent of waste is
mixed with water, which causes water pollution at a large-scale. Nitrate is the major source of
pollution from agriculture. Industry contributes almost 300-400 Metric Tons of waste to water
every year (UN Water 2010).
Food Security
Food security has been an area of concern since long. About 842 million people are still facing
problems of chronic hunger, undernourishment and lack of access to healthy food (WFO …).
Although the number has decreased compared to the previous year, i.e. 862 million, it is still
very high (FAO 2013). The absolute number has decreased mainly due to decrease in food
insecurity in China but it is still a matter of great concern since food insecurity is unevenly
distributed among countries. It is more chronic in developing and least developed countries like
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sub Saharan Africa, etc.
Table No. 2: Undernourishment around the world, 1999-92 to 2011-13
Number of undernourished (millions) and prevalence (%) of undernourishment
1990-92 2000-2002 2005-07 2008-10 2011-13*
WORLD 1015.3 957.3 906.6 878.2 842.3
18.9% 15.5% 13.8% 12.9% 12.0%
DEVELOPED
REGIONS
19.8 18.4 13.6 15.2 15.7
<5% <5% <5% <5% <5%
DEVELOPING
REGIONS
995.5 938.9 892.9 863.0 826.6
23.6% 18.8% 16.7% 15.5% 14.3%
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013
Incident of food insecurity is very high in Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia along with
developing and least developed countries. With the passage of time, it has become more sever
and complicated. Absolute number of food insecurity has increased in Africa. Past achievement
in food security area can be mainly attributed to China, Brazil, and some Asian countries. The
9. major factors in this spatial difference is price volatility, poverty, lack of access to land, and
depleting natural resources.
Table No. 3: Undernourished People and Region
Regions/sub
regions/countries
Number of people undernourished
1990-
1992
2000-2002 2005-
2007
2008-
2010
2011-2013 Change
so far
(millions) (%)
Africa 173.1 209.5 212.8 221.6 222.7 28.7
Asia and Pacific 735 643.6 599.3 562.7 528.7 -28.1
Europe and Central Asia 10 12.3 8 7.7 6.1 39.1
Latin America and Caribbean 65.6 61 54.6 50.3 47 -28.4
Near East and North Africa 25.8 29.9 37.2 41.2 43.7 69.4
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization 2013
Food insecurity causes social and economic problems due to its crucial role in the development
of human capital. Quality food and its proper utilization is fundamental for human capital
development, vibrant economic growth, and development (Cook 2009). It hampers economic
growth and development and put additional burden on the country’s resources in the form of aid
and subsidizing food security related services like health, water supply, etc. For example, in
Middle East and North Africa (MENA), countries hug subsidies for food and other services
(Breisinger 2010).
Energy
Energy is another area of prime importance for sustainable development. It has multiple uses in
our daily life, e.g. lighting, cooking, heating, transportation, industry, etc. Modern life style
seems to be incomplete without energy. Prior to the modern forms of energy use, human and or
animal energy was used to extract and transport water and food production, processing and
transportation.
After the discovery of fossil fuels, the world focus shifted towards the new forms of energy
resources. Industrial development is indebted to the fossil fuels discovery. It also contributed to
increase in per capita use of energy (74 MBTU, 2011). Fossil fuel consumption increased sharply
after the World War II due to rebuilding of Japan and Europe, Creation of jobs for returning
soldiers, and development of US oil industry.
10. Increase in energy consumption can also be attributed to huge subsidies provided to consumers
by the government. Fossil fuel subsidies have increased almost 30 per cent, i.e. 523 billion US$
(IEA 2013)). However, at the same time about 1.3 billion world populations have no access to
electricity. Energy intensity exhibited a decline in recent years from 7.9 Thousand British
thermal unit (TBTU) in 2005 to 7.2 TBTU in 2012, but it is still quite high (EIA 2013). Recent
trends also show that the non-OECD countries are moving faster than the OECD countries in
energy consumption. This trend can be attributed to rapid economic growth, changing lifestyle
and emerging middle class. Projections show that if the trend continues then non-OECD
countries will consume more energy in 2050 than OECD today.
Figure-2 Energy Consumption
Source: International Energy Outlook, 2013.
Table-4 Energy Consumption
Region/Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OECD
OECD Americas 123.83 122.402 117.032 120.167 119.813 118.375 119.012
United States 101.015 99.45 94.939 97.944 97.3 95.674 95.871
Canada 14.331 14.156 13.666 13.465 13.577 13.613 13.842
Mexico/Chile 8.483 8.796 8.427 8.759 8.935 9.088 9.298
OECD Europe 83.999 83.858 79.984 82.475 82.665 81.596 81.336
OECD Asia 39.356 38.879 37.73 39.607 39.371 39.522 39.503
Japan 22.896 22.187 20.98 22.105 21.625 21.579 21.363
0
200
400
600 800
11. South Korea 9.79 9.977 10.055 10.826 11.017 11.093 11.274
Australia/New Zealand 6.67 6.715 6.695 6.676 6.729 6.85 6.866
Total OECD 247.185 245.139 234.746 242.25 241.848 239.493 239.85
Non-OECD
Non-
OECD Europe and Eurasia
48.377 49.427 43.711 47.241 47.539 47.545 48.604
Russia 28.811 29.773 27.014 29.643 29.329 29.512 30.297
Other 19.566 19.655 16.697 17.598 18.209 18.034 18.307
Non-OECD Asia 129.244 137.114 148.094 159.023 168.116 173.617 177.56
China 79.631 85.12 93.146 101.222 110.101 115.453 118.237
India 19.997 21.1 23.138 24.408 24.931 25.208 26.045
Other 29.616 30.895 31.81 33.392 33.083 32.956 33.278
Middle East 23.025 25.258 26.559 27.756 30.364 31.063 31.517
Africa 17.577 18.649 18.39 18.94 18.839 18.938 18.952
Central and South America 26.459 27.404 26.933 28.713 29.664 29.708 30.346
Brazil 12.329 12.662 12.65 13.718 14.062 13.999 14.42
Other 14.13 14.741 14.283 14.995 15.602 15.709 15.926
Total Non-OECD 244.683 257.852 263.686 281.673 294.522 300.871 306.98
Total World 491.867 502.991 498.432 523.923 536.37 540.363 546.83
Sources: World energy consumption, History: EIA, International Energy Statistics database (November
2012), www.eia.gov/ies. Projections: EIA, World Energy Projection System Plus (2013).
Future Scenario for Water, Food and Energy
Demand and supply gap of water, food and energy will be widened in future due to multiple
reasons and interaction among these areas. It is projected that world population will be 8 billion
by 2030 from 7 billion today and it will further increase to 9 billion in 2050 (UN 2009).
Moreover, the urban population will increase 50 per cent more than present times. At present, the
world has 24 megacities with a population of more than 10 million each. It is estimated that
China and India will lead the process of urbanization. At present, the urbanization trend in China
is 46 per cent, and in India it is 30 per cent. It is likely to increase 73 per cent and 55 per cent
respectively by 2050 (UN Habitat 2009). At the same time, the economic growth will be more
rapid in emerging economies, i.e. about 6.7 per cent, which will further complicate the situation
(WB 2010).
These factors will contribute to increase the demand of water, food and energy in future. Global
demand of cereals and meat will increase by 50 and 42 per cent respectively by 2025. This will
require a substantial additional amount of water and energy to produce that amount of food. As
12. predicted by WWDR (2012), the demand of water will increase by 19 percent by 2050.
Agriculture and food consume almost 30 per cent of energy (IEA 2013, WEF 2011).
In order to meet the increasing demand of food, 70-100 per cent increase in the production of
food would be required. Globally 10 per cent more food will be needed (20 per cent in
developing countries and 30 per cent in Latin American countries) (Bruisnma 2009). Similarly,
demand for fertilizers will also increase, and if we take additional 10 per cent biofuel into
account then the fossil phosphorus resources will deplete in next 50 years (Rosemarin 2011).
It seems very difficult to achieve food security against the prevailing situation and the expected
future challenges, i.e. increased demand, climate change, etc. UNEP had predicted that in 2050
the farmers will have to increase their production by 70-100 per cent in order to meet the
increased demand. The demand will be accelerated due to multiple factors like increase in
population, higher income, rapid economic growth in developing countries and more demand of
meat and animal products (UNEP 2009). However, it would be difficult to meet this demand due
to low productivity, less availability of water for agriculture and energy crisis. There will be 10-
25 per cent decrease in production by 2030 (Cline 2009). In India, it can even go down 40 per
cent, which will not only affect food production but also badly impact livelihood of people. Food
production system is one of the major employers (65%) in developing and least developed
countries (Cline 2007).
There would be a sharp decline of 2.5 to 10 per cent in the yield of crops by 2020s and 5 to 30
per cent by 2050s from the levels of 1990s in Asia (IPCC 2007), which will directly impact food
security. Impact of this change will be more sever in developing and least developed countries,
which are already food insecure.
The other dimension of the problem is that there would be increased demand for energy and
water to produce food with limited water and energy supply. On top of that climate change will
limit the choices to use the form of energy and worsen the situation of water availability and its
quality.
Energy demand will also increase in future to sustain the lifestyle and emerging needs of middle
class across the world. More energy would be required for desalinization, pumping, supply of
water and production, processing, and transportation of food. 40 per cent more energy would be
required by 2030 for sustaining the current trends of growth and development (IEA 2012).
China, India and other non-OECD countries would be at forefront of this rapid increase in the
demand of energy. China will have to increase its energy production by 1300 Giga Watt (GW)
and India by 400 GW. However, Mckinsey and Company pointed out that about 77 per cent of
the required infrastructure is missing (Project Catalyst 2009). The world has to meet these
demands in the presence of 1.3 billion people without access to energy while 3 billion using
biomass as major source of energy (ESF 2010).
13. Table below shows that demand for all forms of energy will increase. 75 per cent of energy
demand will be met through fossil fuel, dominantly by coal. As a result, the concentration of
carbon would be 100 part per million (PPM) by the end of 2050 (IEA 2009, p.). It will accelerate
climate change, and negatively impact food production and water sector.
Table 5: Energy Demand in Future (Quadrillion Btu)
Region/Country 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD
OECD Americas 120.167 121.347 126.134 129.743 132.898 137.196 143.577
OECD Europe 82.475 82.145 85.475 88.599 90.874 92.792 94.618
OECD Asia 39.607 40.609 42.951 44.332 45.405 46.115 46.383
Total OECD 242.25 244.101 254.561 262.674 269.176 276.103 284.578
Non-OECD
Non-
OECD Europe and Eurasia
47.241 49.848 53.278 56.836 60.825 64.624 67.121
Non-OECD Asia 159.023 194.323 230.281 261.552 290.428 317.229 337.486
Middle East 27.756 33.097 36.622 39.49 42.524 45.718 48.817
Africa 18.94 19.618 21.874 24.358 27.397 30.965 35.016
Central and South America 28.713 31.022 33.217 35.455 38.836 42.494 46.627
Total Non-OECD 281.673 327.908 375.271 417.692 460.011 501.031 535.067
Total World
Liquids 176.133 185.533 194.703 202.138 210.852 221.105 232.59
Natural Gas 116.805 124.225 135.956 148.455 162.591 177.43 191.32
Coal 147.448 164.588 180.268 195.99 207.906 216.681 219.507
Nuclear 27.289 30.413 37.887 44.312 49.51 53.452 57.175
Other 56.249 67.25 81.016 89.47 98.327 108.466 119.053
Total 523.923 572.009 629.831 680.365 729.187 777.135 819.645
Source: EIA 2013
There will also be an increase in demand and production of renewable energy resources,
including bio-fuels. To fulfil the energy consumption needs of vehicles (5% globally), the world
will require 3.2 million barrels of bio-fuel per day (IEA --). To process this fuel, 20 to 100 per
cent of water will be required, which is now being used in the production of food and other
agriculture products (IWMI 2007). This clearly shows the inter-linkages of three sectors and how
a decision in one sector can impact the two others.
Water is central in this debate and nexus. It is used in energy and food production and
processing. Although agriculture is the biggest consumer of water, its demand in energy sector is
increasing rapidly. Water used during production of various forms of energy is given below.
14. Table: 6: Production of Various Forms of Energy and Water Requirement
Source Raw Materials Transformation Delivery
Oil
Traditional oil
Enhanced oil recovery
Oil sands
3-7
50-9000
70-1800
25-65 Minimal
Biofuels
Corn
Soy
9000-100000
50000-270000
Ethanol: 47-50
Biodiesel: 14
Minimal
Coal 5-70 Coal to liquid: 140-220 Minimal
Gas
Traditional
Shale gas
Minimal
36-54
Natural gas processing
7
Minimal
Source: World Economic Forum with Cambridge Energy Research Associates. 2008. Energy Vision
Update 2009. Thirsty Energy: Water and Energy in the 21st
Century. Geneva
Water consumption will be doubled (135 billion cubic meters) in 2035 from its present
consumption of 66 billion cubic meters in North America (Energy Outlook 2013). Presently,
about 10 per cent water is used in oil production, which will be 18 per cent in 2050 due to
increase in production of non-traditional oil sources. Overall water consumption in energy will
also increase (Table-7).
Table 7: Population, energy consumption and water for energy 2005-2050 based on Aquastat,
2010; WEC Scenarios, 2007 (model updated in 2009); DOE-NETL, 2008; UNESCO-IHE, 2008;
Gleick, 1994
World 2005 2020 2035 2050
Population (million) 6290 7842.3 8601.1 9439
Energy
Consumption (EJ)
328.7 400.4 464.9 518.8
Energy
Consumption
(GJ/capita)
52.3 51.1 54.1 55
Water for energy
(bill m3
/year)
1815.6 1986.4 2087.8 2020.1
Water for energy
(m3
/capita)
288.6 253.3 242.7 214
Source: World Energy Council 2010
Climate change is another reason that is encumbering the energy sector to find clean sources of
energy. In this pursuit, the world is looking for new forms of energy like biofuels, i.e. ethanol
and biodiesel. The table above shows that the biofuels would require large amount of water. This
will put further strain on the scarce resources of water.
Figure 3: Increased water requirement for the production of food will increase manifold in
future.
15. Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal
The situation illustrates that water demand will increase in future, but unfortunately the world is
already facing problems on the availability and access of water. Already 11 per cent of the
population has no access to drinking water, and 47 per cent of the world population will face
water scarcity by 2050 (WWDR 2012). Climate change will impact the availability and quality
of water. It will also increase the frequency and intensity of water related disasters such as
cholera, dengue, etc. By 2050, about two billion people will be vulnerable to face water related
disasters (WWDR 2012, IPCC 2007). About $70 to 100 billion per year investment would be
required from 2020 to 2050 to adapt to climate change (WWDR 2012).
Apart from other reasons, over consumption is a more burden on water resources. As we get
richer, we consume more water. During 1990-2000, the population increased by a factor of 4
while the water demand increased by factor of 9 (Mcneil 2000). It is observed that a number of
countries are over exploiting their groundwater resources. Mexico, China and India are
exploiting their ground sources (20, 26 and 56 per cent) more than the standard level of
extraction (UNDP 2008).
Water Food and Energy Nexus
Water, food and energy have a strong linkage from the beginning. However, the rising
population and lifestyle brought these sectors under limelight. Natural or human made changes in
one sector impact the other two or one of the remaining two sectors. The three sectors are
dependent on each other in processes and consumption. The linkages are very complex as water
is used directly and indirectly in energy production. Hydropower is a direct energy product and
water is also used in the extraction, refining, production and cooling during fossil energy
production. Water is also used indirectly in the production of biofuels. Energy is used in
16. pumping, supplying, desalinization of water, irrigation, etc. Both the water and energy are used
in food production in different forms and at different stages, e.g. irrigation, cleaning, processing,
production fertilizers, pesticides, transportation of food, etc. (Lankford 2012).
The whole discussion shows that these three sectors are highly integrated and decision or action
in one sector will impact the other. Increasing demand in one sector, directly or indirectly, affects
the planning, policy and implementation in other sectors. Furthermore, demand of these will
increase in future due to similar factors like population, urbanization, economic growth,
emerging middle class and improving lifestyle, etc. Problems would also be similar like climate
change, scarcity and higher integration among them. This inter-connectedness shows a strong
nexus among all these factors, therefore, it should be treated as nexus rather than independent
entities or sectors.
We need a uniform, comprehensive and integrated approach to manage these resources and their
demand in future. I suggest these sectors should be addressed simultaneously with integrated
solution approach. Multiple instruments and strategies could be devised to tackle the issue but
the key and the most important is the attainment of EFFICIENCY and NEED BASED
ALLOCATIONS across all sectors.
18. Water-Food-Energy Nexus and Human Security
Life without water, food and energy is not possible since these are the fundamental requirements
to sustain and prosper. High standards of morality and values cannot be achieved without the
fulfillment of these basic needs, as shown in figure-5 (Maslow 1943). After ensuring these basic
needs, we can move to the idea of well-being.
Figure 5: Maslow pyramid
Source: Maslow 1943
Non Traditional Security Threat
As shown in fig 5, water, food and energy are the basic elements on which the whole pyramid is
developed and sustained. Therefore, scarcity or non-availability of water, food and energy can
tremble or destroy the whole pyramid, and same is true for the society. These factors are
fundamental to maintaining and sustaining peace and security in society. It is said that peace is
the pre-requisite for sustainable development. Individual security that is one of the basic needs
leads to security at all levels. The problem of individual security based on non-availability of
food, water and energy is framed as non-traditional security threats.
Non-traditional security threats have existed ever since however, these were brought to the
mainframe of discussion by the end of 20th
century. Since then the issue and topic has gradually
gained momentum. However, more comprehensive elaboration came from a Pakistani scholar,
Dr. Mahbub ul Haq, in a report by UNDP titled “Redefining security: The Human Dimension”.
According to him, individual security should always be equated with security but not in
traditional terms, i.e. at state level. Report came out with a list of specific indicators of individual
19. security including, economic security, food security, health security, water, energy, &
environmental security, personal security, community security, and political security.
Water security has emerged as one of the biggest challenges of present day and future. After the
article by Starr in 1991, future wars on water; it has become important area of discussion in
security and research circle. Water security has multiple dimensions due to dependence of other
sectors on the availability of water, e.g. food production, energy production, drinking, sanitation,
building, etc. Therefore, scarcity of water will also impact the state of security in other sectors
(Houdert 2004). Von Braun (2009) mentioned that during 1946-1999 about 500 water-related
conflicts happened.
Water Conflicts
Water scarcity would give rise to conflicts among different groups and countries. Non-availability or
persistent droughts can force people to migrate which in turn can give rise to conflicts among the local
and migrated communities. A large number of Somalian nationals migrated to other countries due to
shortage of water and food. In South Sudan, conflicts arose due to drought, and a large number of people
had to migrate (UN 2013). Water related disasters will further complicate the situation. In 2010, about 22
million people were displaced in Pakistan and 1/5 of the country was inundated, which cost Pakistan
almost 10 billion dollars. Floods in other parts of the world also played the same havoc. In 2003, 70000
soldiers were deployed to maintain law and order during Katrina in the US (Joshua 2007).
Trans-boundary conflict over water is another concern. Pakistan and India are already facing this
problem, as over the years it has eerged as the biggest threat to relations between both the neighbouring
countries. Conflict on water is also emerging between Somalia and Egypt. Turkey’s plan to build dams
will impact water availability in Iraq and Syria and it will create problems among the three countries. A
report of Intelligence Community Assessment on Global Water Security released in March 2012 report
clearly mentioned that water scarcity will be a major area of concern. National conflict or instability is
likely to occur in next 10 years and intra state conflicts are expected to rise after 10 years (ICA 2012). In
2009, Global Policy indicated that 50 or more countries are highly vulnerable to conflicts over water-
related issues. Levy et al. (2005) identified Mekong delta countries, the Brahmaputra river, the Jordan
river, the Nile river, and the Indus river as prone to future conflicts.
Conflicts on Food
“Hunger anywhere threatens peace everywhere”.
Relation of food insecurity with conflict is very complex, and it has both way relations
(Swaminathan 1994). Food insecurity can cause or strengthen conflicts or vice versa. In Sudan
and Somalia, food insecurity caused and strengthened the conflict and conflict increased the food
insecurity (Simmons 2013). In Pakistan, the most food insecure areas are the most conflict-hit
areas, e.g. North Waziristan, Upper Dir, FATA, Kohlo, Dera Bugti, etc (SDPI 2009). However,
work on food insecurity in Afghanistan shows that prior to its invasion by the USSR and now the
continued war on terror, Afghanistan was a food secure country (Ramay 2011).
20. Seven countries occupy a large number of food insecure people. These are India, DRC, Ethiopia,
Pakistan, and Bangladesh. All these countries have evidences of conflicts relating to land, water
and food. Food insecurity can also cause communal conflicts, like in Rwanda, DRC, Nigeria,
etc. (Hendrix 2013). Messer and Cohen (2006) claimed that wars in late 20th
century and early
21st
century will be based on food. Food was used as an instrument to cause conflict and access
to food was also barred to intensify the conflict (Ellen 2006). Food insecurity and water are the
main reasons of armed conflict in mid-west region of Nepal (Upreti 2010).
Food insecurity can also cause timely riots. If not dealt with proper strategy, it can be the reason
for permanent conflicts. We have witnessed food-related riots in more than 60 countries after the
2007-08 food crisis. However, history of riot is not new, it can be traced back to Boston in 1713,
New York in 1837, the Southern 1863, Japanese 1918 and Egypt 1977 (Tilly 2010). Some
people also argue that drug mafia and conflict in Mexico, Columbia and Peru have also roots in
hunger and food insecurity (Soysa 1999).
Conflicts over energy
Energy has been the source of power politics and conflicts since ages. Slavery was a form of
creating hegemon over energy before the discovery of modern forms of energy. Energy resources
ownership or acquiring ownership by force is a historic reality. Energy related conflicts prevail at
all levels, i.e. community, ethnic, regional, national and international levels. Conflicts over
energy at ethnic and national level can be witnessed in Sudan (now, South and North Sudan, but
conflict still exists). Ethnic conflicts in Niger can also be related to discovery of oil in 1958 and
fight among different groups for ownership of resources (Solana 2007). Electricity problems in
Iraq (after war) and Dominican Republic caused riots in country while in Iraq alliance of
militants was gained on this slogan. Energy deficiency in Chad, DRC and Somalia further
exacerbated the situation (USAID 2010). Riots in Pakistan due to shortage of energy can be
quoted as another example.
At global level, energy is the major issue of concern and conflict, e.g. Hormuz issue, South
China Sea issue, Caspian Sea Basin, Egypt and Israel conflict, Israel and Lebanon, North and
South Sudan, etc. World powers are heavily engaged in securing maximum ownership and
access to energy resources. In 1980, the then US president Jimmy Carter had said that America
will secure Hormuz to ensure uninterrupted energy supply and Obama followed the same policy
with addition of Caspian and South China Sea (Klare 2012). War on terror is also considered by
some people as war for energy resources. Recent conflicts in Mali and action against Qaddafi in
Libya are also quoted as example to ensure the access to energy resources.
Energy produced from water is another form of constant conflict among different countries.
Construction of dams and diversion of water for energy production is a bone of contention
among countries. Mekong delta countries, the Brahmaputra river, the Jordan river, Nile river,
21. Great Lake in USA and Canada, and the Indus river are hotspot for future conflicts over
construction of dams and water sharing.
Water, food and energy are already facing scarcity and are contributing toward conflicts at all
levels. Climate change will further complicate and deteriorate the whole situation. Climate
change is inducing the problem of water scarcity, and the loss of productivity and production of
food. Climate change is also putting pressure to move towards the clean energy resources, which
will further put pressure on water and food resources. Climate change is being seen as multiplier
to existing challenges related to water, food and energy.
Conclusion
The above discussion shows that there is a strong nexus among water, food and energy. These
are fundamental elements to sustain life. At the same time, they have strong linkages with peace
and security. However, these issues are not dealt with properly. Though a number of
organizations are working on these issues separately, there is a need to work on the nexus or
security dimensions. A system is required to deal with these areas simultaneously by using the
lenses of security.
Recommendation
1. Need based allocations, not demand based
2. Efficiency and productivity should be enhanced through investment research and
development and ---?
3. There would be change in lifestyle
4. Waste in all should be discourage by introducing proper means of incentives and
penalties
5. These problems should be looked through the lenses of security
22. Global Set Up
Figure: 6 Global System
UN Security Council is proposed as the main organ of decision making and implementation in
this regard. Moreover, UN Security Council is also responsible for ensuring peace and security at
global level. However, the problem of non-representativeness in UN Security Council remains.
Power at Security Council is highly skewed in the favor of few countries or dominantly in favor
of North.
WFE
Policy
Body
UN Security
Council-Decision
Making
Food
Water
Energy
23. National System
Global system can also be replicated at national level in the following way;
Figure 7: National System
WFE and
Defence
Ministry
Policy Body
Head of
Government
Decision Making
Food
Water
Energy
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