RE Capital's Visionary Leadership under Newman Leech
Ic governance-14-september-2018
1. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt Ltd.
Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
Employment – The Big Picture
a presentation by
Mahesh Vyas
for
IC Centre for Governance
2. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Enterprise
Survey
Administrative
Data
Household
Survey
Population can be sampled No No Yes
Employment can be measured Partially Partially Yes
Unemployment can be measured No No Yes
Organised sector can be covered Yes Partially Yes
Unorganised sector can be covered No Partially Yes
Use Household Surveys for the Big Picture
May 3, 2021
2
The problem with household surveys was that it was too complex and difficult
to execute often enough. But, CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey
has solved that problem.
Enterprise surveys are useful to get superior classification of employed persons
-- such as by functions, skills, activities.
Enterprise surveys should be conducted to measure the demand for skills.
A household survey is the best method to estimate employment /
unemployment in India – the best method to get the Big Picture.
3. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Consumer Pyramids Household Survey
May 3, 2021
3
1. Panel survey of ~172,365 households
1. 110,279 urban households; 62,086 rural households
2. ~1,500 households surveyed every day
3. ~10,500 households surveyed every week
4. ~43,000 households surveyed every month
2. 3 Waves of surveys conducted every year
1. January - April
2. May - August
3. September - December
3. CPHS captures well-being of households
1. Demographics, income, expenses, ownership of assets
2. Customised questions
4. Measurement of Unemployment
1. 30-day moving average released every day
2. Weekly, Monthly & Quarterly estimates
3. Wave-wise comprehensive Statistical Profile
4. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
NSSO CPHS
Rural sample households 59,700 62,086
Urban sample households 42,024 110,279
Total sample households 101,724 172,365
(Un)employment related questions ~100 1 + 10
Duration of execution 12 months 4 months
Frequency of survey About every 5 years Every 4 months
Periodic Continuous
Comparing CPHS with NSSO
May 3, 2021
4
Four Statuses* in CPHS
1. Employed E
2. Unemployed, willing to work and actively looking for a job (UE)
3. Unemployed, willing to work and not looking for a job (MUE)
4. Unemployed, not willing to work and not looking for a job
*Status is as of date of survey or, one day before date of survey; no recall problem
Derivations
5. Labour Force, LF = (1+2)
6. Greater Labour Force, GLF= (1+2+3)
7. Unemployment Rate, UER = (2/5)
8. Greater Unemployed, GUE = (2+3)
9. Greater Unemployment Rate, GUER = (8/6)
5. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Employment & Unemployment Estimates
Usual Status (US, ps+ss) based estimates are higher and not comparable to CPHS.
US overstates employment.
CPHS estimates are closest to CDS of NSSO / LB
CDS is about 87% of US.
CPHS employment estimate for 2016-17 is about 87% of LB’s US for 2016-17.
5
Employed (million) Unemployed (million)
NSSO Labour Bureau
CPHS
NSSO Labour Bureau
CPHS
CDS ps+ss CDS ps+ss CDS ps+ss CDS ps+ss
2009-10 368.2 421.8 381.2 26.5 9.9 39.0
2010-11
2011-12 381.9 434.4 456.5 23.5 10.2 15.6
2012-13 451.7 19.0
2013-14 480.4 16.9
2014-15
2015-16 467.7 18.0
2016-17 406.7 33.0
2017-18 406.2 19.9
381.9/434.4 = 0.879 406.7/467.7 = 0.870 23.5/10.2 = 2.3 33/18 = 1.8
May 3, 2021
6. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Key Labour Force Statistics
May 3, 2021
6
Source: Consumer Pyramids Household Survey
2016-17 2017-18 2017-18
Q1
2018-19
Q1
Jul-17 Jul-18 Aug-17 Aug-18
Million
Employed 406.7 406.2 406.2 401.9 403.2 405.3 401.7 399.2
Unemployed
& willing to work
& looking for job 33.0 19.9 17.0 23.6 14.2 17.4 24.3 26.9
& not looking for job 29.0 10.9 8.8 10.2 7.1 10.9 10.9 8.3
& not willing to work 506.7 557.6 522.8 544.2 550.9 542.8 562.5 568.2
Labour force 439.7 426.1 423.3 425.5 417.4 422.7 426.0 426.1
Percent
Labour force participation rate 46.1 43.5 43.6 42.7 42.8 42.6 43.3 42.5
Employment rate 42.6 41.5 41.9 40.4 41.3 41.5 40.2 39.8
Unemployment rate 7.5 4.7 4.0 5.5 3.4 5.7 4.1 6.3
Greater LFP rate 49.1 44.6 44.5 43.8 43.5 44.4 43.7 43.3
Greater Unemployment rate 13.2 7.0 6.0 7.8 5.0 6.5 8.0 8.1
7. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Labour Force Rises, Not Employment in 2018
May 3, 2021
7
(mln)
(mln) Labour Force Employment
393
396
399
402
405
408
411
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017
2018
405
410
415
420
425
430
435
440
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017
2018
9. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Impact of Demonetisation
May 3, 2021
9
Months before / Period Employed Change in Labour Change in
after demonetisation (million) employed Force Labour Force
(million) (million) (million)
1 month before Oct-16 413.9 443.9
1 month after Nov-16 401.2 -12.7 429.3 -14.5
2 months before Sep - Oct 2016 415.9 450.2
2 months after Nov - Dec 2016 403.3 -12.6 431.3 -18.9
3 months before Aug 16 - Oct 16 412.5 449.7
3 months after Nov 16 - Jan 17 405.0 -7.5 432.3 -17.4
4 months before Jul 16 - Oct 16 409.1 446.3
4 months after Nov 16 - Feb 17 405.6 -3.5 431.5 -14.9
10. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Shift in LPR & UER
May 3, 2021
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
UER
(%)
LPR (%)
Pre demonetisation
Post demonetisation
11. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Fall in LPR after demonetisation
May 3, 2021
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
10-Jan-16 27-Apr-16 13-Aug-16 29-Nov-16 17-Mar-17 3-Jul-17 19-Oct-17 4-Feb-18 23-May-18 8-Sep-18
LPR
(%)
Weeks
Demonetisation
LPR
Trailing 4 week average
11
12. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
Jan-Apr 2018
The Youngsters Challenge
May 3, 2021
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >=65
Jan-Apr 2016
May-Aug 2016
Sep-Dec 2016
Jan-Apr 2017
May-Aug 2017
Age in years
LPR
(%)
Sep-Dec 2017
Jan-Apr 2018
May-Aug 2018
12
13. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >=65
Jan-Apr 2016
May-Aug 2016
Sep-Dec 2016
Jan-Apr 2017
May-Aug 2017
Sep-Dec 2017
Jan-Apr 2018
May-Aug 2018
May 3, 2021
Age in years
LPR
(%)
13
Older Men Drop Out, Younger Join Later
14. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
-
5
10
15
20
25
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >=65
-
5
10
15
20
25
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 >=65
Jan-Apr 2016
May-Aug 2016
Sep-Dec 2016
Jan-Apr 2017
May-Aug 2017
Sep-Dec 2017
Jan-Apr 2018
May-Aug 2018
May 3, 2021
Age in years
LPR
(%)
14
Women were Rising all the Way and then…
15. of 18
15
Advantages of Company-level Database
We do not have to swear secrecy aka household respondents.
All the data is available publicly and can be cross-verified.
May 3, 2021
16. of 18
16
Employment Growth in Companies
(%) change
Sample
Note: Growth rates based on common sample of companies for two consecutive years
May 3, 2021
0.41
3.28
2.17
4.79 4.89
3.51
2.51
6.20
3.72
2.38 2.24
-3.30
0.36
2.47
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Mar-04
919
Mar-05
913
Mar-06
883
Mar-07
993
Mar-08
1,050
Mar-09
1,105
Mar-10
1,161
Mar-11
1,220
Mar-12
1,260
Mar-13
1,266
Mar-14
1,250
Mar-15
1,283
Mar-16
2,886
Mar-17
3,054
3.73
3.41
-0.16
17. of 18
17
Does Sales Growth lead to Jobs Growth?
May 3, 2021
Sales Growth Distribution by
Employment
Growth
High Low
Employment
Growth
High
35
Synthetic rubber Cotton & blended yarn
16 51
Renewable electricity Cosmetics, toiletries, soaps & dtrgts
Milling products Readymade garments
42.7%
Commercial complexes Ceramic products
26.7% 35.9%
Online marketplaces Drugs & pharmaceuticals
Low
47
Minerals Diversified machinery
44 91
Industrial cooling equipment Paper products
Agricultural machinery Lubricants, etc.
57.3%
Steel Refractories
73.3% 64.1%
Passenger vehicles Tyres & tubes
Distribution
by Sales
Growth
82 60 142
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
18. of 18
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Employment & Sales Growth in Companies
May 3, 2021
Sales Growth Distribution by
Employment
Growth
High Low
Employment
Growth
High
58
Source Industries (India) Ltd. Vishal Fabrics Ltd.
196 254
O N G C Petro Additions Ltd. Kakatiya Textiles Ltd.
U T L Industries Ltd. F C A Engineering India Pvt. Ltd.
25.7%
A C I Infocom Ltd. Vivid Global Inds. Ltd.
8.5% 10.0%
Shantai Industries Ltd. Shree Pushkar Chemcls & Frtlsrs Ltd.
Low
168
Binny Ltd. Devine Impex Ltd.
2,109 2,277
Facor Alloys Ltd. Indian Sucrose Ltd.
Sarvamangal Mercantile Co. Ltd. Aksharchem (India) Ltd.
74.3%
Jyotirgamya Enterprises Ltd. T & I Global Ltd.
91.5% 90.0%
Millitoons Entertainment Ltd. Silveroak Commercials Ltd.
Distribution
by Sales
Growth
226 2,305 2,531
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
19. Consumer Pyramids
India’s Largest
Survey of Households
of 20
1. Reliable data on Labour Markets is available.
2. Fast-frequency data on labour markets is available.
3. Demonetization did hit labour markets.
4. Labour participation fell & is still low.
5. Female labour participation improvement reversed.
6. Companies’ jobs growth has slowed.
7. Companies’ jobs growth is lower than sales growth.
8. CapEx shows investments have slowed down.
9. CSO shows that investments have slowed.
10. Till investments do not pick up, jobs won’t.
The Big Picture
May 3, 2021
19
