Part1

1. EMBA students of the Chinese University of Hong Kong
29 July, 2016
Climate Change, Energy and
China

2. Outline of talk
• The risks of climate change: new data

3. 3
The temperature have increased by roughly 1° C (1.8° F) since 1880
Global Land and Ocean Temperature (1880 – 2015)

4. Are the glaciers melting?
Is the sea level rising?
YES

5. 5
Muir Glacier, Alaska
(The visual “narrative”)
August 13, 1941 August 31, 2004

6. GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)
Measures local change in gravity
ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and
land Elevation Satellite)
(measures changes land
mass height)

7. Chen, Wilson, Blankenship, Tapley, Nature Geoscience 2, 859 - 862 (2009)
Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity
measurements (Apr. 2002 – Jan. 2009)
In the last interglacial period
(129,000 to 116,000 years
ago), the average
temperature was ~ 1° C
warmer than today.
Geological records: the
sea level was 6 - 9 meters
higher than today.

8. 8
R.M. DeConto & D. Pollard, Nature 531, 591 – 597 (2016)
Models constrained to fit estimated Pliocene (2.0 – 5.5 M) global mean sea
level (+10 – 20 m higher) and last interglacial level (3.6 – 7.4 m)

9. 9

10. Map of Shanghai and surrounding cites at current sea levels
Strauss, B. H., Kulp, S. and Levermann, A. 2015. Mapping Choices: Carbon, Climate,
and Rising Seas, Our Global Legacy. Climate Central Research Report. pp. 1-38.

11. Tens of millions of people will be displaced in the Shanghai area alone.
A 6 – 9 meter rise will likely create ~ 500 – 700 world-wide climate refugees.

12. 12

13. 13
Water resources in Northern China are limited
(red color denotes extreme scarcity)

14. 14
Water resources in Northern China are limited

15. Particulate matter PM2.5 (diameter < 2.5 μm) is especially deadly.
1.4 x increase in lung cancer per 10 μg/m3 of PM2.5
(The Lancet Oncology 14, 813 - 822 (2013)
The average air in Beijing is ~ 100 μg/m3.
Risk may be (1.4)10 ~ 29 x higher.

16. Harbin, China
Particulate matter PM2.5 (< 2.5 μm) and PM10 are especially deadly.
36% increase in lung cancer per 10 μg/m3 (The Lancet Oncology, 2014)

17. Nanofiber filtration: 95% filtration of PM2.5 with 55% transmission
Transparent air filter for high-efficiency PM2.5 capture,
Chong Liu, Po-Chun Hsu, … Yi Cui, Nature (2015)

18. Transparent air filter for high-efficiency PM2.5 capture
Chong Liu, Po-Chun Hsu, Hyun-Wook Lee, Meng Ye, Guangyuan Zheng, Nian Liu,
Weiyang Li & Yi Cui, Nature (2015)

19. 19
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CummulativeworldwideGHG
emissions(GtCO2eq.)
Data sources: The Global Carbon Budget 2015, www.globalcarbonproject.org;
Boden, TA et al.Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2015);
Houghton, RA et al., Biogeosciences, 9, 5125-514 (2012).
To have a 66% chance of staying below 2° C, cumulative carbon
emissions have to be < 1000 GtC (2900 GtCO2 eq.) We have
emitted ~ 550 GtC (2050 GtCO2 eq.) by the end of 2015.
“If you don’t change direction,
you will end up where you are
heading.”
Lao-Tze (老子)
2,900 GtCO2
3/4 of GHG
emissions
occurred in
the last 65
years.

20. 25 year delay after the
onset of smoking
Smoking increases the risk of
• Lung cancer: 25x
• Coronary heart disease: 2x - 4x
• Stroke: 2x – 4x
The damage already done to will not be known for centuries.
The risks of “secondary smoke” will last for thousands of years

21. “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and
the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.”
- Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former Saudi Oil Minister
We transitioned to better solutions.
If we don’t find better solutions, the oil,
gas and coal will be used.
Our ability to find and extract oil and natural gas
will likely keep pace with demand for 50 – 100 years.

22. • The risks of climate change: new data
• How science and technology can make clean
energy the low cost option.
Outline of talk

23. 23
Energy efficiency
in buildings, cities, transportation,
industrial processes and everywhere else

24. 24
R. van Buskirk, C. Kantner, B. Gerke and S, Chu, Environ. Res. Lett. 9 114010 (2014)
The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price
Refrigerator cost declines by 28% for each
doubling of production. Energy saved each
year ~ 67 GW nuclear reactors operating 24/7.