Examines the claims that climate change is very serious, and checks the available records to determine whether the main blame is increased carbon dioxide or heat emissions. Climate records show no trends to extremes, and loss of Arctic ice may be counteracted by increased growth of northern forests.

1. Climate Change
- Emissions and Benefits.
With video clips from BBC TV program series
Harvest, Blue Planet and Planet Earth
keith.shotbolt@hotmail.co.uk8 May 2019

2. Records show a global temperature rise of 1 degree Centigrade
over the last 100 years.
Excel plot of Central England Annual Temperature (HadCET) over the years since
1721. Note previous warm period in the 1730s.
Warming may be due to HEAT emissions rather than carbon dioxide.
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1715 1765 1815 1865 1915 1965 2015

3. 2,500 million years ago, cyanobacteria evolved to grow by
Photosynthesis.
Plants use the process to convert CO2 to make their food for growth.
Chlorophyll, a green pigment, acts as a catalyst.
Cyanobacteria and plants converted the CO2 rich atmosphere to one with
21% of O2, leaving just 0.04% (or 400 ppm (parts per million)) of CO2.
Plants need CO2 and horticulturalists increase the concentration in their
greenhouses to 1500 ppm to boost crop yields.

5. 500 million years ago, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was
more than ten times the present level. Fish with gills had evolved to
breathe the waste oxygen product from marine plant life.
They were not harmed by the higher content of CO2.
In the temperate climate regions now, the increasing sunlight in Spring triggers
photosynthesis to produce new leaves on trees, and crops grow in the fields.
The normally blue oceans, covering 70% of the Earth’s surface and containing around
50 times more CO2 than the atmosphere, develop large areas of green plankton bloom.
In 2011, the Climate Emergency Institute stated: “When phytoplankton (and the sea
creatures that eat them) die, they sink to the ocean floor, removing huge amounts of
CO2 from the ocean surface and acting as an effective carbon sink.” Similarly, food
plants on land and the creatures that eat them (including humans) act as a carbon sink.

7. Human Activities of construction, warmed (or cooled) buildings, power stations, cars &
aircraft, have all traditionally depended on fossil fuels, such as natural gas (methane),
petrol and diesel.
Fossil fuels are organic. They form carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O) when burnt in
air. Using methane as an example:
Travel by jet aircraft started in the 1950s. Globally, there are now more than 8,000 planes
taking off in every hour, emitting large amounts of hot CO2 and water vapour.
The population of the city of Oxford increased from 31,000 in 1851, to 244,000 in 2011.
University staff consider that the observed rise in city temperature over the last 100 years
was largely due to the heat emitted by more buildings and traffic.
Nuclear power stations do not emit carbon dioxide, but they do emit HEAT.
CH4 + 2O2 = 2H2O + CO2 + HEAT

8. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre publishes records of
Sea Ice Extent at both the North and South poles.
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Arctic Sea Ice Cover - September Low
Millions Sq Km Median 1981 2010
Minimum ice cover at the North Pole has reduced from a Median of 6.3 million sq km over the
years 1981 to 2010, to a fairly steady average of 4.3 million sq km over the last 12 years.
In the years 2013 to 2016, South Pole ice cover actually increased above the Median.
90% of the world’s 7.7 billion human population live in the northern hemisphere.
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Antarctic Sea Ice Cover - February Low
Millions Sq Km Median 1981 2010

9. The Taiga or Boreal Forests.
The Taiga is primarily a coniferous forest (evergreen trees with needles) and is located
between 50 degrees latitude north and the Arctic circle.
The trees do not grow until the average temperature per day is above 5 degrees Centigrade.
Warming of the northern hemisphere should extend the growing period and areal extent of
these forests, which should also benefit from increased CO2 in the surrounding air.

11. Extreme Storms.
The Centre for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) advises that “globally, about 70 to
110 tropical storms form each year, with about 40 to 60 reaching hurricane strength.
Records show large year-to-year changes in the number and intensity of these storms.”
Wikipedia’s list of recorded hurricanes begins with one in 1300 BC in Nicaragua. In the
18th century List, the Great Hurricane of 1780 is noted as killing more than 20,000
people in the Caribbean area – the highest number of human casualties of all storms.
In the year 1900, a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds in excess of 130 mph (113
knots) killed around 10,000 people in the US city of Galveston, Texas. There were no
cars and no aircraft in the world in 1900, and there were 6 billion fewer humans.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has plotted the
accumulated energy per annum of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones over 68 years to 2016,
see next slide.

12. The graph shows a decline in Atlantic Storm Energy over the first half of the period, rising to a
peak in 2005, but subsequently falling. There is no correlation with ‘global warming’.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-
bin/data/climateindices/corr.pl?tstype1=46&custname1=&custtitle1=&tstype2=0&custname2=&custtitle2=&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&y1=&y2=&plotstyle=0&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=1&mon1=
0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

13. Extreme Weather.
Rainfall
Analysis of the 166 years of records of rainfall in Oxford shows that the top 5 wettest
months were all before 1950. Annual rainfall in Oxford varies between 400mm and
1000mm, with the absolutely flat level trend line showing a most likely value of 650mm.
Cherrapunji, an Indian town just north of Bengal, holds the all-time record for the most
rainfall in a calendar month, 9,300 mm; and in a year, 26,461 mm; both in 1861. During the
last 30 years, annual rainfall at Cherrapunji has rarely exceeded half of that figure.
Temperature
The highest recorded temperature is 56.7°C (134°F), which was measured on 10 July 1913
in Death Valley, California, USA.
The lowest temperature ever recorded in Moscow was −42.2 °C in January 1940.
The coldest ever recorded in Calgary, Canada was −45 °C in February 1893.

14. Drought
The years 1934 to 1940 (with very few cars and aircraft) saw the worst period of drought in
the American and Canadian prairies. The resulting conditions were named the Dust Bowl,
and were caused by ploughing the wind-resistant grass cover. Farming methods have
improved to prevent a recurrence.
Bushland and Forest Fires
Bushland and forest fires can be started naturally by lightning strikes. However, it is
probable that many of these fires have been caused by human groups having picnic
barbecues without taking care to completely extinguish the ashes.
Accurate Weather Records.
The number of video-recording devices, including mobile phones, has greatly increased
over the last 20 years. Video clips of ‘unprecedented?’ weather are regularly broadcast by
television stations around the world.
Many areas do not have accurate long-time-span meteorological records.

15. Benefits of Increased Temperature
1. As described in slides 9 and 10, the Taiga or Boreal conifer forests only grow when the
average ambient temperature per day exceeds 5 degrees Centigrade. The noted 1 degree
C increase in northern hemisphere temperatures must be helping these Russian and
Canadian forests to grow.
2. People living in areas where their homes need added heat in the winter will benefit
from lower requirement for ‘central heating’ (and therefore lower associated cost).
3. There will be fewer deaths from hypothermia.
4. There will be fewer road accidents due to less snow and ice.
5. Fewer pipes will burst due to freezing up.
6. There will be less personal tendency to slip on ice.
7. There will be reduced need to clear snow away.
8. Golfers will have reduced periods of course closures.

16. Conclusions.
1. The UK is a small country of less than 0.2% of the world’s land area, and contains less than 1% of the
world’s population. Any meaningful attempt to reduce emissions must depend on international effort.
2. The UK government has already introduced measures to reduce emissions from human activities, including:
• Reduced use of coal to heat homes and generate electricity
• Subsidies for increased generation of electric power by wind turbines
• Encouragement to improve insulation of existing and new homes
• Encouragement for people to use bicycles instead of cars
• Charges for use of the most-polluting vehicles in cities.
3. Individuals can help reduce emissions by installing solar panels, using hybrid or electric cars, reducing
number and length of flights, etc.
4. The three hottest average June temperatures in Central England were in 1846. 1826 and 1822. The coldest
average December temperature was in 1890 (-0.8C) and the second coldest was in 2010 (-0.7C).
No cause for alarm there.
5. There does not appear to be any scientific experimental proof that the 4 parts in 10,000 of CO2 in the
atmosphere act like a one-way blanket.