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Forestcluster Ltd Bio-based
economy scenario process
Tiina Pursula, Juha Vanhanen, Paula Tommila
Gaia Group Ltd | 15.11.2011
Bio-based economy scenario process
7.10.2011           9.11.2011            9.12.2011     January



                     Workshop II
  Workshop I                           Workshop III
                       Winning
Creation of Bio-
                   concepts of the    R&D themes of    Reporting
based economy
                      Bio-based        the Bio-based
 Scenarios for
                     economy in       Economy SHOK
     2030
                        2030




  The wider           Concrete         The SHOK
 perspective       opportunities in     context
                      the wider
                     perspective


                                                           2
Value network of Bio-based economy sectors
                                                   Integration
                     Technology      Services

                                                           Bio products
                   Agro                                                   Pharma and
                                                 Food
                                                                          cosmetics
Nutrients and
Feed                                                                                   Water
                                                Biofuels
                            Energy                                 Chemicals             Recycling
                Forest
                                                Bio-based                  Textiles
                                                Materials                              Funding
      R&D
                                                                  Packaging
     Education
                         Wood products
                                           Pulp and paper
                                                                                                 3
What is Bio-based economy?
...Industries and economic sectors that          “Bio economy is the part of economy, which creates growth and
exploit biological resources...                  jobs by developing, refining and using biological resources in an
…Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food,         environmentally sustainable way…
chemicals and bio-fuels...                       ...Worth nearly €2 trillion, the European bio-economy provides
...Replacing fossil fuel feedstocks...           around 22 million jobs in Europe across sectors as diverse as
                                                 agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, chemicals and bio-fuels. This
...Eliminating waste...
                                                 is the impressive reality of the European bio-economy. It is an
...Sustainability...                             indispensable part of all of our lives and plays a major role in
...Strong knowledge base...                      making our lives better.” Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, EU Research
...Growth and employment...                      and Innovation Commissioner, 2010
...Societal benefits...


   “The bio-economy includes all
   industries and economic sectors that     “The Knowledge-based Bio-economy is a broad concept which
   produce, manage, and otherwise           can be defined in a number of ways. In essence, the vision is of a
   exploit biological resources (and        Europe of the future in which fossil fuel feedstocks have been
   related services, supply or consumer     replaced by renewable plant raw materials, chemical processes
   industries) such as agriculture, food,   replaced by biological ones and waste virtually eliminated by
   fisheries, forestry etc.”                working in closed-loop systems. Above all, it will build on a
   EU Bio-economy conference, 2005          strong European knowledge base of enabling science and
                                            technology and will generate sustainable employment for
                                            European citizens.“ EU Bio-Economy conference, 2010



                                                                                                              4
What is Bio-based economy?                                                      “A bio-based economy is based on
                                                                                  production paradigms that rely on
                                                                                  biological processes and, as with
                                                                                  natural ecosystems, use natural
 ...Biotechnological solutions for health and resource-based
                                                                                  inputs, expend minimum amounts of
 problems...Economic output...Renewable biomass...                                energy and do not produce waste as
 ...Integration of biotech applications and biomass flows                         all materials discarded by one
 across sectors... Effective material loops...                                    process are inputs for another
 ...Production paradigms that rely on biological processes...                     process and are reused in the
 ...Small-scale solutions...                                                      ecosystem.” Franz Fischler, 2010
                                                                                  (from WWF, Denmark)

” A bio-economy is perceived as an economy based on sustainable production and conversion of
biomass to be used as a major resource in a wide variety of industries. The locality of biomass
production and low sustainability of its transportation over long distances calls for a distributed
bio-economy consisting of a variety of small-scale solutions. The bio-economy strives to integrate
the biomass flows of different industries in such a way that one industry’s waste or emissions
become another industry’s raw material. This approach is a means to create effective material
loops and fight the problems of climate change and resource depletion.” Sustainable Bio-
economy: Potential, Challenges and Opportunities in Finland, Sitra 2010


                                         “Biotechnology offers technological solutions for many of the health and
                                         resource-based problems facing the world. The application of biotechnology
                                         to primary production, health and industry could result in an emerging
                                         “bioeconomy” where biotechnology contributes to a significant share of
                                         economic output. The bioeconomy in 2030 is likely to involve three elements:
                                         advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable
                                         biomass, and the integration of biotechnology applications across sectors”.
                                         OECD (2009) The Bioeconomy to 2030: designing a policy agenda. 5
Bio-based economy in the SHOK context

                               Bio-based economy as a
                             solution to grand challenges:
Impacts on society:            climate change, resource          A new societal system:
Growth, jobs, economic       depletion, population growth        Way forward from the
output, wellbeing and                                            current fossil-based
sustainability                                                   economy
                         Value addition from bio-based raw
                                      materials
  Sustainability:               Closed material cycles
                                                                      Competences
 an essence of all       Intelligent, integrated, resource and          and R&D:
    bio-based                   energy efficient concepts           Focus on renewal
    economy
                               Technology integration
                             Novel business and market
                                   opportunities


                              Future oriented approach:
                              from sectors of today into
                                 visions of the future
                                                                                  6
Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030

             Main Drivers                         Outcomes 2030
             ”How the critical factors develop”   ”How the world looks like”
             •   World trade & Economy            •   Business opportunities
business




             •   Innovations and renewal          •   Value networks
             •   Policy and regulation            •   Material flows
             •   End-user Demand                  •   Markets
people




             •   Societies                        •   Products, services and
             •   Food                                 concepts
nature




             •   Energy                           •   Development of regions
                                                  … Competitiveness
             •   Natural resources
                                                  … Well-being
             •   Environment and climate change   … Sustainability



                                                                               7
”Everything is
depending on
everything”                          World trade
A very complex                       & economy
system!                                                       Policy and
                                                              regulation
                         Energy


                                    Innovations
                                    and renewal
                                                   Bio
                                                products      End-user
                                                              demand

                   Natural
   Minerals
                  resources
      Nutrients        Water                               Societies
                                           Environment
                                           and climate
                                  Land       change



                   Biomass

                                         Food
Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030

                     ”The Green renewal”
                     International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating
                     environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.



                     ”Drifting or steering?”
                     Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and
                     environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.
         © mbbirdy




                     ”Battle for resources and survival”
                     Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and
    © David Ciemny   international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses.




                                                                                                       9
Innovativeness:
                                   No ready-made
                                  solutions available
                                      Technology
                                      availability



                                                                  Globally significant
                                                                      business
Sustainable utilization             Winning                         opportunities:
 of natural resources:             concept of
                                                                   Market need and
    Raw material                 the Bio-based                     end user demand
     availability               economy in 2030                   Support from policy
                                                                    and regulation

                          Includes the key elements of the
                                Bio-based economy:
                     Value addition from bio-based raw materials
                                Closed material cycles
                 Intelligent, integrated, resource and energy efficient
                                        concepts
                                Technology integration
                                                                                         10
Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

                       ”The Green renewal”
                       International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating
                       environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.



 • Integrated technologically advanced biorefineries for both urban and rural
   based feedstocks and a range of products with varying added value
 • Advanced bio-based energy products and systems
 • New plants for specific purposes
        © mbbirdy


 • Concepts for optimized biomass supply chain including waste and side
   streams
 • Recycling concepts for closed cycles of carbon, phosphorus and other
   nutrients
      © David Ciemny




                                                                                                         11
Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

                   ”The Green renewal”
                   International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating
                   environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy.



 • Robust process concepts combining small and large scale, re-thinking processes
   and on-site processing (e.g. during transportation)
 • Land use management concepts optimizing various needs and safeguarding
   biodiversity and overall sustainability, keeping the biomass supply chain in mind
           © mbbirdy


 • Concepts for sustainable local food production and fair and sufficient
   distribution of food
 • Community scale production e.g. transport fuels from household waste on site
 • Fresh water production from sea water (and waste water)
 • Ecosystem services and immaterial value of natural resources
      © David Ciemny




                                                                                                     12
Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

                    ”Drifting or steering?”

                    Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and
        © mbbirdy   environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.



 • Efficient logistics and trading concepts to level bio-based feedstock
   production and demand
 • High value added products that maximize the value from the certain
   feedstock
           © mbbirdy


 • Robust mainly urban based biorefineries and production facilities with high
   feedstock flexibility
 • Robust, multipliable and modular cost-effective solutions for improved
   standard of living in emerging middle class of the developing countries:
   housing, food and packaging, transport
      © David Ciemny

 • Low carbon solutions in certain regulated markets


                                                                                              13
Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

                       ”Drifting or steering?”

                       Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and
          © mbbirdy    environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success.



• Intensity of food production: more food from the same surface area
• Phosphorus and other nutrients recycling from sanitation waste, fish waste
  and other sources
• Management of various (local) feedstocks and complex supply chains:
         © mbbirdy


  (Locally) tailored solutions for biomass supply across industries and
  communities
• Locally superior concepts that can be protected

      © David Ciemny




                                                                                                 14
Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030

                       ”Battle for resources and survival”

                       Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and
      © David Ciemny   international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses.



 • Concepts for efficient utilization of locally available rich natural resources and
   trading to complement resource deficits, ”modern barter”
 • Material reuse and simple recycling systems
 • Land © mbbirdy
           management concepts and land ownership development concepts
 • Local (and backyard) concepts for material and energy efficient integrated
   production of commodities: food, energy and materials
 • New sources of food for areas which suffer from environmental changes, new
   crops and new cultivation methods
 • Concepts for local availability of fresh water and water management
      © David Ciemny




                                                                                                 15
Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030

                       ”Battle for resources and survival”

                       Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and
      © David Ciemny   international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses.



 • Water-efficient and waterless processes (e.g. ionic liquids)
 • Water cultivation systems and utilization of water-based biomass
 • Mobile small mills, which can be moved easily close to the raw material
 • Functioning decision-making systems in societies, making it possible to make
        © mbbirdy


   the most out of rare resources
 • Organic farming concepts with more closed nutrient cycle


      © David Ciemny




                                                                                                 16
Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030



                                           © mbbirdy       © David Ciemny




• Closed, integrated material cycles across industries and communities
• Trading and logistics of bio-based feedstocks locally and globally to level supply
  and demand
• Concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of bio-based
  energy and materials with high feedstock flexibility




                                                                                       17
Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030



                                          © mbbirdy       © David Ciemny




• Recycling of phosphorus and other nutrients and minerals
• Concepts for improved availability and efficient use of water
• Concepts for sustainable and intensive local food production
• Land management concepts




                                                                           18
OUR CLIENTS MAKE THE
WORLD SAFER AND CLEANER.

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Forestcluster ltd bio based economy scenario process

  • 1. Forestcluster Ltd Bio-based economy scenario process Tiina Pursula, Juha Vanhanen, Paula Tommila Gaia Group Ltd | 15.11.2011
  • 2. Bio-based economy scenario process 7.10.2011 9.11.2011 9.12.2011 January Workshop II Workshop I Workshop III Winning Creation of Bio- concepts of the R&D themes of Reporting based economy Bio-based the Bio-based Scenarios for economy in Economy SHOK 2030 2030 The wider Concrete The SHOK perspective opportunities in context the wider perspective 2
  • 3. Value network of Bio-based economy sectors Integration Technology Services Bio products Agro Pharma and Food cosmetics Nutrients and Feed Water Biofuels Energy Chemicals Recycling Forest Bio-based Textiles Materials Funding R&D Packaging Education Wood products Pulp and paper 3
  • 4. What is Bio-based economy? ...Industries and economic sectors that “Bio economy is the part of economy, which creates growth and exploit biological resources... jobs by developing, refining and using biological resources in an …Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, environmentally sustainable way… chemicals and bio-fuels... ...Worth nearly €2 trillion, the European bio-economy provides ...Replacing fossil fuel feedstocks... around 22 million jobs in Europe across sectors as diverse as agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food, chemicals and bio-fuels. This ...Eliminating waste... is the impressive reality of the European bio-economy. It is an ...Sustainability... indispensable part of all of our lives and plays a major role in ...Strong knowledge base... making our lives better.” Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, EU Research ...Growth and employment... and Innovation Commissioner, 2010 ...Societal benefits... “The bio-economy includes all industries and economic sectors that “The Knowledge-based Bio-economy is a broad concept which produce, manage, and otherwise can be defined in a number of ways. In essence, the vision is of a exploit biological resources (and Europe of the future in which fossil fuel feedstocks have been related services, supply or consumer replaced by renewable plant raw materials, chemical processes industries) such as agriculture, food, replaced by biological ones and waste virtually eliminated by fisheries, forestry etc.” working in closed-loop systems. Above all, it will build on a EU Bio-economy conference, 2005 strong European knowledge base of enabling science and technology and will generate sustainable employment for European citizens.“ EU Bio-Economy conference, 2010 4
  • 5. What is Bio-based economy? “A bio-based economy is based on production paradigms that rely on biological processes and, as with natural ecosystems, use natural ...Biotechnological solutions for health and resource-based inputs, expend minimum amounts of problems...Economic output...Renewable biomass... energy and do not produce waste as ...Integration of biotech applications and biomass flows all materials discarded by one across sectors... Effective material loops... process are inputs for another ...Production paradigms that rely on biological processes... process and are reused in the ...Small-scale solutions... ecosystem.” Franz Fischler, 2010 (from WWF, Denmark) ” A bio-economy is perceived as an economy based on sustainable production and conversion of biomass to be used as a major resource in a wide variety of industries. The locality of biomass production and low sustainability of its transportation over long distances calls for a distributed bio-economy consisting of a variety of small-scale solutions. The bio-economy strives to integrate the biomass flows of different industries in such a way that one industry’s waste or emissions become another industry’s raw material. This approach is a means to create effective material loops and fight the problems of climate change and resource depletion.” Sustainable Bio- economy: Potential, Challenges and Opportunities in Finland, Sitra 2010 “Biotechnology offers technological solutions for many of the health and resource-based problems facing the world. The application of biotechnology to primary production, health and industry could result in an emerging “bioeconomy” where biotechnology contributes to a significant share of economic output. The bioeconomy in 2030 is likely to involve three elements: advanced knowledge of genes and complex cell processes, renewable biomass, and the integration of biotechnology applications across sectors”. OECD (2009) The Bioeconomy to 2030: designing a policy agenda. 5
  • 6. Bio-based economy in the SHOK context Bio-based economy as a solution to grand challenges: Impacts on society: climate change, resource A new societal system: Growth, jobs, economic depletion, population growth Way forward from the output, wellbeing and current fossil-based sustainability economy Value addition from bio-based raw materials Sustainability: Closed material cycles Competences an essence of all Intelligent, integrated, resource and and R&D: bio-based energy efficient concepts Focus on renewal economy Technology integration Novel business and market opportunities Future oriented approach: from sectors of today into visions of the future 6
  • 7. Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030 Main Drivers Outcomes 2030 ”How the critical factors develop” ”How the world looks like” • World trade & Economy • Business opportunities business • Innovations and renewal • Value networks • Policy and regulation • Material flows • End-user Demand • Markets people • Societies • Products, services and • Food concepts nature • Energy • Development of regions … Competitiveness • Natural resources … Well-being • Environment and climate change … Sustainability 7
  • 8. ”Everything is depending on everything” World trade A very complex & economy system! Policy and regulation Energy Innovations and renewal Bio products End-user demand Natural Minerals resources Nutrients Water Societies Environment and climate Land change Biomass Food
  • 9. Bio-based economy scenarios in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success. © mbbirdy ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. 9
  • 10. Innovativeness: No ready-made solutions available Technology availability Globally significant business Sustainable utilization Winning opportunities: of natural resources: concept of Market need and Raw material the Bio-based end user demand availability economy in 2030 Support from policy and regulation Includes the key elements of the Bio-based economy: Value addition from bio-based raw materials Closed material cycles Intelligent, integrated, resource and energy efficient concepts Technology integration 10
  • 11. Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. • Integrated technologically advanced biorefineries for both urban and rural based feedstocks and a range of products with varying added value • Advanced bio-based energy products and systems • New plants for specific purposes © mbbirdy • Concepts for optimized biomass supply chain including waste and side streams • Recycling concepts for closed cycles of carbon, phosphorus and other nutrients © David Ciemny 11
  • 12. Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”The Green renewal” International regulation is developed so that it provides a favorable operating environment for renewal and development of the bio-based economy. • Robust process concepts combining small and large scale, re-thinking processes and on-site processing (e.g. during transportation) • Land use management concepts optimizing various needs and safeguarding biodiversity and overall sustainability, keeping the biomass supply chain in mind © mbbirdy • Concepts for sustainable local food production and fair and sufficient distribution of food • Community scale production e.g. transport fuels from household waste on site • Fresh water production from sea water (and waste water) • Ecosystem services and immaterial value of natural resources © David Ciemny 12
  • 13. Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and © mbbirdy environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success. • Efficient logistics and trading concepts to level bio-based feedstock production and demand • High value added products that maximize the value from the certain feedstock © mbbirdy • Robust mainly urban based biorefineries and production facilities with high feedstock flexibility • Robust, multipliable and modular cost-effective solutions for improved standard of living in emerging middle class of the developing countries: housing, food and packaging, transport © David Ciemny • Low carbon solutions in certain regulated markets 13
  • 14. Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Drifting or steering?” Business as usual; attempts to re-organize global economical and © mbbirdy environmental regulation and incentives continue, but with low success. • Intensity of food production: more food from the same surface area • Phosphorus and other nutrients recycling from sanitation waste, fish waste and other sources • Management of various (local) feedstocks and complex supply chains: © mbbirdy (Locally) tailored solutions for biomass supply across industries and communities • Locally superior concepts that can be protected © David Ciemny 14
  • 15. Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. • Concepts for efficient utilization of locally available rich natural resources and trading to complement resource deficits, ”modern barter” • Material reuse and simple recycling systems • Land © mbbirdy management concepts and land ownership development concepts • Local (and backyard) concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of commodities: food, energy and materials • New sources of food for areas which suffer from environmental changes, new crops and new cultivation methods • Concepts for local availability of fresh water and water management © David Ciemny 15
  • 16. Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 ”Battle for resources and survival” Control of global economy and climate change runs out of reach and © David Ciemny international organizations lose their power. Global economy collapses. • Water-efficient and waterless processes (e.g. ionic liquids) • Water cultivation systems and utilization of water-based biomass • Mobile small mills, which can be moved easily close to the raw material • Functioning decision-making systems in societies, making it possible to make © mbbirdy the most out of rare resources • Organic farming concepts with more closed nutrient cycle © David Ciemny 16
  • 17. Winning concepts of Bio-based economy in 2030 © mbbirdy © David Ciemny • Closed, integrated material cycles across industries and communities • Trading and logistics of bio-based feedstocks locally and globally to level supply and demand • Concepts for material and energy efficient integrated production of bio-based energy and materials with high feedstock flexibility 17
  • 18. Weak signals of Bio-based economy in 2030 © mbbirdy © David Ciemny • Recycling of phosphorus and other nutrients and minerals • Concepts for improved availability and efficient use of water • Concepts for sustainable and intensive local food production • Land management concepts 18
  • 19. OUR CLIENTS MAKE THE WORLD SAFER AND CLEANER.