Day 1 of 5 (0600 Thursday 31st July to 0600 Friday 1st August)

1. General Forecast - SEPD Region
A warm day with sunny spells but there is the chance of a few showers developing during the afternoon, most likely in northern areas. The showers may be heavy and give the slight chance
of very infrequent lightning strikes. A few showers may linger into the evening, chiefly in the north once again, with the small risk of isolated lightning strikes. However, it will become dry
overnight with clear periods.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 W 20 15 SW 25 15 SW 20 15 SW 25
10 SW 20 15 W 25 15 SW 25 10 SW 25
5 SW 20 10 SW 25 10 W 20 10 SW 20
10 SW 10 10 SW 10 10 SW 10 10 SW 15
Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area
North East North West South East South West
Slough and West London Oxford, Reading & Melksham Aldershot & Portsmouth Poole & New Forest
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green
Temp (Max/Min) 25 13 23 13 24 13 23 13
Wind
06h-12h
12h-18h
18h-00h
00h-06h
Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 3.1 0 - 3.9 0 - 0.8 0 - 1.2
18h-06h 0 - 2.0 0 - 2.3 0 - 0.8 0 - 1.0
Snow/Line Icing
06h-18h
18h-06h
Lightning
06h-18h 2D 2D 3 3
18h-06h 2D 2D 3 3
Scheduled Utilities Forecast - SEPD (South) - Thursday 31 Jul 2014
Day 1 of 5 (0600 Thursday 31st July to 0600 Friday 1st August)

2. General Forecast - SEPD Region
After a mostly fine start, a few showers are expected to break out. The showers are likely to be heavy with the risk of infrequent lightning strikes. Further showers are expected overnight
and they may merge into longer spells of rain at times. The continuing risk of infrequent lightning strikes.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
10 S 20 15 S 20 15 SW 25 15 S 20
10 S 20 10 S 20 15 S 25 10 S 25
5 SE 15 10 E 20 15 S 25 10 S 20
5 E 10 5 SW 15 10 S 25 10 S 15
Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Area
North East North West South East South West
Slough and West London Oxford, Reading & Melksham Aldershot & Portsmouth Poole & New Forest
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green Green
Temp (Max/Min) 24 13 23 13 23 13 22 14
Wind
06h-12h
12h-18h
18h-00h
00h-06h
Rain (mm)
06h-18h 0 - 3.0 0.6 - 4.0 0 - 2.8 0.1 - 3.4
18h-06h 0.8 - 5.3 1.8 - 7.0 0.7 - 4.4 1.5 - 7.0
Snow/Line Icing
06h-18h
18h-06h
Lightning
06h-18h 2C 2C 2C 2C
18h-06h 2C 2C 2C 2C
Day 2 of 5 (0600 Friday 1st August to 0600 Saturday 2nd August)

3. General Forecast - SEPD Region
Low pressure centred over the UK is expected to give
an unsettled day with showers or longer outbreaks of
rain, many of these heavy and giving the risk of
infrequent lightning strikes. Some model output
suggests that a few intense thunderstorms could
break out to give frequent lightning strikes and
downpours, but there is a lot of uncertainty at this
stage. The showers/rain/thunderstorms should move
away to the north overnight.
General Forecast - SEPD Region
A mostly fine day with sunny spells and just the odd
shower possible. Any showers will die out through the
evening to leave a dry night with clear periods.
General Forecast - SEPD Region
A ridge of high pressure is expected to give a largely
fine and warm day with sunny intervals. However, a
frontal system may push showery rain in from the
west overnight.
Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust Mean Dir'n Gust
20 SW 30 25 SW 35 20 S 30
Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m) Snow (cm) Line Icing Height (m)
0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A 0.0 Nil N/A
Day 3 of 5 (0600 Saturday 2nd August to 0600
Sunday 3rd August)
Day 4 of 5 (0600 Sunday 3rd August to 0600
Monday 4th August)
Day 5 of 5 (0600 Monday 4th August to 0600
Tuesday 5th August)
Area
Day Three Day Four Day Five
SEPD Region SEPD Region SEPD Region
Risk (RAG) Green Green Green
Temp (Max/Min) 23 12 23 11 24 13
Wind
24 hours
Rain (mm) 24 hour total 24 hour total 24 hour total
24 hours 4 - 25 0 - 2 0 - 3
Snow/Line Icing
24 hours
Lightning
24 hours 2C 3 3
Days 6 to 10 (0600 Tuesday 5th August to 0600 Sunday 10th August)
Outlook
Low pressure will be the dominant feature through much of next week to give showers or longer spells of rain at times. There are some indications that pressure will build towards the
weekend to give more settled conditions, but confidence is very low at this stage.

4. Rainfall (mm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
>50 >50
>=25 >25
<25 <=25
Snowfall (cm)
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
if 24hr total >=10 >=3 >=5
>1 >=1
<=1 <1
if 24hr total >=5 >1
<=1
if 24hr total <5 any amount
Overall risk of disruption
Severe risk Red
Significant risk Amber
No risk Green
The above reflects the worst case of any of the following
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st November - 31st March
Direction N/NE/E All other directions
>50 mph Red >70 mph Red
>40 mph Amber >50 mph Amber
<=40 mph Green <=50 mph Green
Wind Gusts (mph) - 1st April - 31st October
Direction N/NE/E All other directions
>40 mph Red >60 mph Red
>30 mph Amber >40 mph Amber
<=30 mph Green <=40 mph Green

5. Line icing
12 hr (days 1 and 2) 24 hr (days 3 to 5)
Severe Severe
other 12hr > Nil Moderate Moderate
other 12hr = Nil Moderate Slight
Slight Nil
Nil
Lightning risk and disruption colour code matrix
Risk level 1 A B C D
Risk level 2 A B C D
Risk level 3 A B C D
Risk level 4 A B C D
Lightning Risk Categories
1 - Lightning will almost certainly occur across the region, or is occurring
2 - Lightning is likely across the region
3 - Lightning is unlikely across the region, although convective activity or an active front is forecast
4 - Lightning is not expected to occur across the region
Lightning Intensity Index
A - Very frequent lightning strikes
B - Frequent lightning strikes
C - Infrequent lightning strikes
D - Very infrequent lightning strikes
All Temperatures in °C
All Wind speeds in MPH