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VALUE FOCUS
Construction & Building Materials
First Quarter 2020 | Segment Focus: Residential Construction
Executive Industry Trends
‱	 Favorable economic fundamentals entering 2020 have been overshadowed by the spread of COVID-
19. Precautionary actions taken to counteract the virus are expected to dramatically lower economic
activity and demand.
‱	 Signs of economic fallout started to appear in late 1Q20 data but 2Q20 is expected to demonstrate a
more comprehensive picture of the real time effects of the virus on economic activity.
‱	 Construction has been designated as an “essential” sector throughout most of the country, allowing
construction companies to continue to work in the face of a multitude of disruptions.
‱	 A lower housing supply entering the pandemic, low mortgage rates, and government program support
such as the CARES Act have helped support the housing market in the initial phase of the crisis.
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
In This Issue
Construction Overview	 1
Segment Focus:
Residential Construction	 4
Sector Round-up	 10
Mergers and Acquisitions	 15
About Mercer Capital	 18
www.mercercapital.com
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2012
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2013
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2014
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2015
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2016
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2017
Q
1
Q
2
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3
Q
4
2018
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
2019
Q
1
Q
2
Q
3
Q
4
GDP($Billions)
AnnualizedRealGrowthRate
Quarterly Growth Average Quarterly Growth GDP (Current Dollars)
Source: tradingeconomics.com
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q
1-2010
Q
1-2011
Q
1-2012
Q
1-2013
Q
1-2014
Q
1-2015
Q
1-2016
Q
1-2017
Q
1-2018
Q
1-2019
Q
1-2020
National Construction
Construction
Overview
Construction 
National GDP
U.S. GDP contracted 0.9% quarter-over-quarter
in 1Q20 (annualized decline of 3.6%), the first
decline in twenty-two quarters. The decline is
due to COVID-19, which was declared a global
pandemic by the World Health Organization on
March 11, 2020. As governments responded by
issuing “stay-at-home” orders, economic activity
and demand plummeted. Many employers have
switched to remote work or postponed operations
which has led to a spike in unemployment.
Economic growth is expected to be negatively
affected for an indeterminate period with a
declaration of recession on the horizon. Year-over-
year construction GDP growth was 0.7% through
year-end 2019. The deceleration in construction
GDP growth over the second half of 2018 was
primarily due to declining residential construction
activity which recovered strongly through the end
of 2019. Despite entering 2020 with favorable
fundamentals, construction activity and demand
will likely suffer with the broader economy from the
fallout of COVID-19. Typical of the lagging effect
on construction markets, industry participants
should experience some benefit from backlog and
pipeline activity as well as from lower interest rates.
Construction Gross Domestic Product
% Change in GDP
Construction GDP
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 0.4%
Y-o-Y 0.7%
National GDP
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -0.9%
Y-o-Y 2.1%
*Construction GDP data through 4Q19
Source: tradingeconomics.com | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
The Federal Reserve historically gauges a healthy economy as sustaining an unemployment rate between 4.5% and
6.0%. The increase from 3.5% in February 2020 to 4.4% in March 2020 reflects the initial impact of COVID-19. The
unemployment rate is expected to increase significantly in 2Q20 as economic activity slows. The unemployment rate
is expected to crest 10% exceeding the worst rates during the great recession .
The unemployment rate in the construction industry is typically more volatile because it is a cyclical and seasonal
industry. The major contributing factor to the seasonal nature of the industry is the weather. Production of materials
and projects generally decrease during the wet and cold of the winter months. The March construction unemployment
rate was at 6.9%, compared to 5.2% for the same period last year. The construction unemployment rate achieved
period lows of 3.2% in May and September 2019. Many construction activities have been designated as “essential”
throughout the country (Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan, New York, and Vermont are the only exceptions), which
may partially mitigate the decline in construction employment relative to the broader economy.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Q
1
2010
Q
1
2011
Q
1
2012
Q
1
2013
Q
1
2014
Q
1
2015
Q
1
2016
Q
1
2017
Q
1
2018
Q
1
2019
Q
1
2020
National Construction
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: The national unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted, but the construction unemployment rate is not to show seasonality and recent trends.
Construction
Overview
Construction 
National Unemployment
Unemployment Rate
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
The value of construction put-in-place is the total value of construction work performed in the U.S. for a specified period.
The U.S. Census Bureau tracks this data and reports the total monthly. This value includes, but is not limited to, building
materials costs, labor costs, profit, engineering costs, interest, and taxes.
Year-over-year put-in-place construction has increased by 9.0% for residential and increased by 2.0% for nonresidential.
After declining in 2018, put-in-place residential construction continued to increase in 1Q20 as the sharp rise in mortgage
rates in late 2018 reversed course throughout 2019. The decline in housing stats in March due to COVID-19 is expected
to weigh on future residential construction.
Nonresidential construction has been supported by increased spending at the local and state government level on
public infrastructure over the past year due to a large backlog of deferred maintenance. However, public spending on
infrastructure softened in the second half of 2019. Nonresidential construction will be disrupted going forward due to the
negative economic fallout from COVID-19. Sectors that are expected to be particularly affected include the oil and gas
due to the collapse in oil prices, commercial, office, lodging, and transportation.
Construction
Overview
Value of Construction
Put-in-Place
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
Q1-2010
Q1-2011
Q1-2012
Q1-2013
Q1-2014
Q1-2015
Q1-2016
Q1-2017
Q1-2018
Q1-2019
Q1-2020
$Billions
Residential Nonresidential
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Value of Construction Put-in-Place
Residential
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 0.7%
Y-o-Y 9.0%
Nonresidential
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 1.1%
Y-o-Y 2.0%
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
The global economy is suffering the effects of an ongoing global pandemic declared by the World Health Organization
(“WHO”) as of March 11, 2020. COVID-19 is considered highly dangerous, particularly for the elderly and/or those with
pre-existing conditions and chronic ailments that compromise the human immune system. Since its discovery, COVID-19
has spread throughout the globe. Health officials in numerous countries expect the incidence of infection and mortality
to persist and perhaps accelerate through the first half of 2020. Governmental authorities in the U.S. and abroad have
mandated limits on social gatherings and recommended that civilian populations take measures to isolate themselves to
curtail further spread of the disease. All manner of public and private events have been canceled throughout the world,
and travel and border restrictions have been enacted by the U.S. and many other nations. These restrictions are expected
to negatively affect economic growth for an indeterminate period.
The evolution of the pandemic, the extent of its economic and cultural consequences, and the results of steps taken
and yet to be taken by governments and financial institutions are fluid and evolving in real-time. The consensus of the
world’s central bankers and other leading authorities on the economy includes an expectation for a significant downturn in
economic activity, particularly for the second quarter of 2020, and the potential for a global recession.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s responses to the deepening COVID-19 crisis have included emergency cuts to the Fed
Funds Rate of 50 and 100 basis points on March 6th and March 16th, respectively. The Fed’s emergency cuts were not
measurably successful in calming the volatility of financial markets. In March, the SP 500 Index registered daily index
changes of between 2% and 12%, triggering numerous limit-down thresholds and resulting in mandated shutdowns in
trading activity. As of March 31, 2020, the SP 500 had fallen 24% from its February 19, 2020 record high and 20% since
December 31, 2019. The federal government passed three significant acts intended to respond to the medical crisis and
mitigate its economic effects, culminating in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”)
that became law on March 27, 2020. The Federal Reserve also has launched several programs and initiatives to alleviate
funding strains and illiquidity in various markets, leveraging many programs created during the 2008 to 2009 financial
crisis. Additional legislative, executive, and agency-level actions may occur as policymakers seek to contain the economic
downside of the pandemic and to promote economic recovery.
Sector Focus
Residential
Construction
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Prior to the ongoing pandemic, the home building sector was set to continue the positive momentum from the second
half of 2019. Social distancing efforts and the ensuing economic downturn will dramatically hamper the demand
for housing construction and lead to a decline housing starts and new orders. The construction industry has been
designated as “essential” throughout much of the country (Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan, New York, and
Vermont are the only exceptions). Accordingly, some builders may be able to continue to work through backlog and
current projects. However, they will contend with an increasingly disruptive operating environment as municipalities
are slow to clear paperwork and labor constraints and supply disruptions complicate the work site. While the effects
of the economic downturn were just starting to appear in the 1Q20 data, second quarter data is expected to reflect a
more complete picture of the COVID-19 induced downturn.
Housing supply persists at relatively low inventory levels which should support home prices; this is contrary to the
oversupply of housing in the 2008 recession. The CARES Act allows some borrowers to delay mortgage payments for
up to a year and relieves potential pressure on delinquencies and foreclosures. A significant increase in depressed
properties would dismantle any support home prices currently have. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level
in four years, and the rising wave of refinancing has pressured banks’ ability to service demand. As the economic
ripples of the virus spread, job losses and delinquencies may pressure credit quality and tighter lending standards
may reduce credit availability despite low interest rates.
Sector Focus
Residential
Construction (cont.)
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Q
1
2010
Q
1
2011
Q
1
2012
Q
1
2013
Q
1
2014
Q
1
2015
Q
1
2016
Q
1
2017
Q
1
2018
Q
1
2019
Q
1
2020
Source: Freddie Mac
30-Year Mortgage Rate
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -27 BPS
Y-o-Y -82 BPS
Residential
Construction
30-Year Mortgage
Rate
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the most common financing tool home buyers use in the U.S. Rising mortgage
rates mean a higher overall cost to consumers, and therefore a decrease in the demand for homes. Mortgage rates
have decreased by 82 basis points over the past year and 27 basis points over the first quarter of 2020. Rates
peaked in late 2018 and contributed to a decline in residential construction demand. The decline in mortgage rates
in 2019 prompted a renewed wave of refinancing as mortgage originations had suffered over the previous couple of
years due to rising rates. The economic fallout from COVID-19 contributed to a further decline in mortgage rates,
which struck a period low at the end of the first quarter of 2020. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the first
quarter at just under 3.5% compared to a March 2019 rate of just over 4.25%.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q
1
2010
Q
1
2011
Q
1
2012
Q
1
2013
Q
1
2014
Q
1
2015
Q
1
2016
Q
1
2017
Q
1
2018
Q
1
2019
Q
1
2020
HMI RMI
Source: National Association of Home Builders
Note: RMI is measured quarterly and approximated for a monthly basis using a straight-line approach.
Residential
Construction
NAHB Indices
National Association of Home Builders HMI and RMI
NAHB HMI
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -5.3%
Y-o-Y 16.1%
NAHB RMI
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -12.7%
Y-o-Y -11.1%
The National Association of Home Builders (“NAHB”) conducts two separate surveys, the Housing Market Index
(“HMI”) and the Remodeling Market Index (“RMI”), which measure confidence in the home building industry.
Respondents rate their activity on a scale from 1-100 with 50 being average. The HMI is produced monthly and
asks respondents to rate market conditions both at present and looking forward six months. The monthly index has
remained above 50 since July 2014 and reached a ten-year high of 76 in December 2019. The HMI recovered in the
first half of 2019 after housing market activity softened during late 2018. The decline in March 2020 foreshadows
increasing uncertainty regarding the effect of COVID-19 on residential construction demand. The RMI is produced
quarterly and asks respondents to rate their work volume as either higher or lower than the previous quarter. The
quarterly index fluctuated between 50 and 60 since the second quarter of 2013 before declining to 48 in the first
quarter of 2020.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 8
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Residential
Construction
Housing Starts
 Permit
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates of
New Housing Starts and Building Permits (Millions of Units)
Private Housing Starts Single Family Starts Private Building Permits Single Family Building Permits
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Note: Permits at a given date are generally a leading indicator of future starts. Beginning with January 2014, building permit data reflects the change to the 20,000 place series.
Private Housing
Single Family Housing
Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates of New Housing Starts and Building Permits (Millions of Units)
Private Housing
Starts
Single Family
Starts
Private
Building Permits
Single Family
Building Permits
Period % Change Period % Change Period % Change Period % Change
Q-o-Q -24.0% Q-o-Q -19.0% Q-o-Q -4.9% Q-o-Q -5.0%
Y-o-Y 1.4% Y-o-Y 2.8% Y-o-Y 4.8% Y-o-Y 1.4%
Building permits and housing starts are important indicators for the home building industry. Both reflect demand,
consumer confidence, and the feasibility of financing construction projects. Building permits can be issued and
then shelved by builders; therefore, housing starts are a more relevant measure for current activity in the industry.
After declining nearly 75% from Q1 2006 to Q1 2009 as the housing boom decayed, housing permits and starts
have steadily recovered but are unlikely to reach pre-great recession highs. Both private and single family starts
dramatically declined in the first quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 negatively affected demand for new homes.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Residential
Construction
New and Existing Home
Sales  Months of
Supply
New and existing home sales provide a sense
of the market demand for houses. Sales track
the number of homes sold in a month. Months
of supply is another measure of the home buying
market;it shows how long it would take for all of the
homes currently on the market to be purchased.
It is alternatively known as the absorption rate.
Six months is considered average and lower
levels signify a pricing advantage for sellers and
vice versa. Supply has dropped below pre-great
recession levels, but new homes sold dropped in
March 2020, which contributed to the increase in
supply during the first quarter of 2020 as home
builders started contending with the effects of
COVID-19.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Q
1
2010
Q
1
2011
Q
1
2012
Q
1
2013
Q
1
2014
Q
1
2015
Q
1
2016
Q
1
2017
Q
1
2018
Q
1
2019
Q
1
2020
MonthsofSupply
HomesSold(Millions)
Sold Supply
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Q
1
2010
Q
1
2011
Q
1
2012
Q
1
2013
Q
1
2014
Q
1
2015
Q
1
2016
Q
1
2017
Q
1
2018
Q
1
2019
Q
1
2020
MonthsofSupply
HomesSold(Millions)
Sold Supply
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
New Homes Sold and Months of Supply
Existing Homes Sold and Months of Supply
New Homes Sold
Period % Change
Y-o-Y -9.5%
Existing Homes Sold
Period % Change
Y-o-Y 0.8%
Month of Supply
Period % Change
Y-o-Y 10.3%
Month of Supply
Period % Change
Y-o-Y 10.3%
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Corporate profit is essential for companies not only to survive, but to grow and expand. When corporate profit
increases, companies are generally willing and able to open new branches and divisions. These additions lead to
more commercial construction. As seen in the chart below, corporate profit has flattened in recent periods (4Q19 data
not yet available). The U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. The dip
in the fourth quarter of 2017 is partially due to one-time deferred tax asset write-downs incurred by companies owing
to the new tax rate. Corporate profits have suffered from the fall-off in economic activity due to COVID-19 and are
expected to remain under pressure in the second quarter of 2020. Great uncertainty exists over the length and extent
of the virus’s effect on future economic activity.
Office and retail rental vacancy can also be a signal for new commercial construction demand. Low vacancy rates
indicate a need for more space for companies to conduct business, which is a driver for the nonresidential construction
industry. Both office and retail could experience increases in vacancy rates owing to COVID-19 and to “stay-at-
home” orders that curtail foot traffic. COVID-19 may accelerate long-term structural changes that would permanently
diminish demand for office and retail space due to expansions in work-from-home technology, evolution of corporate
cultural, and accelerated e-commerce penetration.
Sector Round-up
Nonresidential
Construction
Corporate Profit	
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
Q1-2010
Q1-2011
Q1-2012
Q1-2013
Q1-2014
Q1-2015
Q1-2016
Q1-2017
Q1-2018
Q1-2019
Q1-2020
$Billions
Corporate Profit	
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -15.9%
Y-o-Y -11.1%
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Q
1-2010
Q
1-2011
Q
1-2012
Q
1-2013
Q
1-2014
Q
1-2015
Q
1-2016
Q
1-2017
Q
1-2018
Q
1-2019
Q
1-2020
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Sector Round-up
Building Materials
Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production Index
Period % Change
Q-o-Q -4.8%
Y-o-Y -4.9%
The Industrial Production Index (“IPI”) is an indicator of economic activity that measures real production output of the
manufacturing, mining, and utilities industries. It acts as a barometer for the level of demand for industrial products and
manufacturing activity. After oscillating for a couple of years, IPI steadily increased for most of 2017 and 2018. In December
2018, IPI reached its highest level of the examined period but experience limited growth during 2019. IPI began to decline in
March 2020 as part of the overall decline in economic activity. Aerospace and automobile manufacturers will be particularly
affected by the decline in traffic and air travel.
$Billions
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Q
1-2010
Q
1-2011
Q
1-2012
Q
1-2013
Q
1-2014
Q
1-2015
Q
1-2016
Q
1-2017
Q
1-2018
Q
1-2019
Q
1-2020
$Billions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Value of Utilities Construction
Value of
Utilities Construction
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 0.8%
Y-o-Y 5.9%
Sector Round-up
Building Materials
(cont.)
Cement and ready-mix concrete are used in most construction projects involving the utilities subsector such as transportation,
energy, gas, water, and sewage. There will always be some need for infrastructure activity, so building materials companies
can rely on this revenue stream even though the growth rate of new projects fluctuates. TheValue of Utilities Construction has
increased 5.9% year-over-year. Increased renovation and safety requirements have driven an increase in power construction
investment as well as the shift from legacy fossils fuels to natural gas and renewable energy sources. Spending on water
supply and purification construction is expected to increase as most of the country’s pipeline system was installed in the mid-
20th century and will require augmentation and/or replacement to address demand and/or water quality concerns.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Most of the funding for transportation infrastructure comes from public resources. Accordingly, activity in the contracting
and building materials industries is typically correlated to level of government spending on construction activity. To bolster
the economy during the great recession, government consumption expenditures and gross investments increased but
declined significantly in the years following. After stagnating for much of 2013 to 2016, GCI increased throughout 2018
and 2019 reaching the highest levels since 2010. The growth in GCI was boosted by increased military spending as well
as increased public infrastructure investment at the state and local level. As COVID-19 weighs on various construction
sectors, public construction spending may prove to be stable a source of demand especially if fiscal stimulus accelerates.
There is some risk that state-level funding capacity could be adversely affected by the significant decline in motor fuel
purchases during the COVID-19 crisis. Accordingly, backlog and pipeline projects that normally lessen down-cycle declines
in infrastructural construction could be delayed and/or reduced.
$2,850
$2,900
$2,950
$3,000
$3,050
$3,100
$3,150
$3,200
$3,250
$3,300
$3,350
$3,400
Q1-2010
Q1-2011
Q1-2012
Q1-2013
Q1-2014
Q1-2015
Q1-2016
Q1-2017
Q1-2018
Q1-2019
Q1-2020
$Billions
Sector Round-up
Roads, Bridges, and
Highways
Government Consumption and Investment
Government Consumption
and Investment
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 0.2%
Y-o-Y 2.4%
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Sector Round-up
Roads, Bridges, and
Highways (cont.)
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Q
1-2010
Q
1-2011
Q
1-2012
Q
1-2013
Q
1-2014
Q
1-2015
Q
1-2016
Q
1-2017
Q
1-2018
Q
1-2019
Q
1-2020
$Billions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Value of Highway and Street Construction
Value of Highway and
Street Construction
Period % Change
Q-o-Q 11.8%
Y-o-Y 5.3%
The value of road and highway construction increased 5.3% year-over-year as state and local governments increased
spending on infrastructure in place of increased federal spending. After declining from its peak in April 2019, road and
highway construction spending increased appreciably through 4Q19 and 1Q20. As state and local governments come
under more budgetary pressures, especially due to responses to COVID-19, alternative sources of funding need to be
exploited. Increased political uncertainty has clouded the future of road and highway construction as the FAST Act will
expire in 2020 amidst the 2020 presidential election cycle.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Ticker
Price at
3/31/20
52-Week
Perf.
LTM
Revenue
Enterprise
Value Debt / MVTC
EBITDA
Margin
EV / EBITDA
(x)
TEV / Next Yr
EBITDA (x)
Price / LTM
Earnings
Residential
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. NYSE: BZH 6.44 -44.0% 2,172 1,375 88.2% 3.8% 16.75 7.60 7.00
D.R. Horton, Inc. NYSE: DHI 34.00 -17.8% 18,466 15,007 26.2% 13.3% 6.12 5.81 6.62
KB Home NYSE: KBH 18.10 -25.1% 4,817 2,941 52.4% 9.0% 6.78 6.29 5.41
Lennar Corporation NYSE: LEN 38.20 -22.2% 22,897 20,037 44.0% 11.7% 7.45 9.77 6.07
LGI Homes, Inc. NasdaqGS: LGIH 45.15 -25.0% 2,005 1,802 39.6% 13.2% 6.82 6.12 5.30
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. NYSE: MDC 23.20 -20.2% 3,348 2,225 44.9% 9.5% 6.98 5.84 6.17
NVR, Inc. NYSE: NVR 2,569.11 -7.2% 7,320 9,055 6.7% 13.9% 8.93 8.67 10.85
PulteGroup, Inc. NYSE: PHM 22.32 -20.2% 10,511 8,024 38.9% 14.1% 5.42 4.74 5.83
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation NYSE: TMHC 11.00 -38.0% 5,183 3,141 71.9% 7.9% 7.64 4.54 7.02
Meritage Homes Corporation NYSE: MTH 36.51 -18.3% 3,860 2,106 53.0% 10.2% 5.34 5.36 4.70
TRI Pointe Group, Inc. NYSE: TPH 8.77 -30.6% 3,185 2,188 61.0% 11.3% 6.07 5.02 5.10
Median - Residential -22.2% 4,817 2,941 44.9% 11.3% 6.82 5.84 6.07
All figures reported in millions, except per share data
Source: Capital IQ
Bellwether Stocks  Industry Participants
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 16
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Ticker
Price at
3/31/20
52-Week
Perf.
LTM
Revenue
Enterprise
Value Debt / MVTC
EBITDA
Margin
EV / EBITDA
(x)
TEV / Next Yr
EBITDA (x)
Price / LTM
Earnings
Building Materials
Eagle Materials Inc. NYSE: EXP 58.42 -30.7% 1,451 3,300 40.1% 27.7% 8.20 7.18 34.63
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. NYSE: MLM 189.23 -5.9% 4,435 15,020 24.1% 28.3% 11.98 11.40 19.88
Summit Materials, Inc. NYSE: SUM 15.00 -5.5% 2,257 3,355 53.4% 20.1% 7.40 7.45 20.39
U.S. Concrete, Inc. NasdaqGS: USCR 18.14 -56.2% 1,480 1,048 74.1% 10.6% 6.68 5.63 20.58
Vulcan Materials Company NYSE: VMC 108.07 -8.7% 4,982 17,256 18.3% 24.9% 13.89 12.73 23.14
CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. BMV: CEMEX CPO 0.21 -55.0% 13,121 13,288 78.6% 15.7% 6.44 5.43 34.04
CRH plc ISE: CRG 27.31 -12.0% 28,200 29,477 35.6% 14.8% 7.07 6.47 12.04
HeidelbergCement AG DB: HEI 42.31 -41.1% 21,225 19,497 61.3% 15.3% 6.00 5.57 6.66
LafargeHolcim Ltd SWX: LHN 36.70 -25.7% 27,591 36,088 39.6% 19.9% 6.56 5.54 9.65
Median - Building Materials -25.7% 4,982 15,020 40.1% 19.9% 7.07 6.47 20.39
Roads, Bridges, and Highways
Granite Construction Incorporated NYSE: GVA 15.18 -64.8% 3,390 782 41.1% 0.3% 78.46 3.67 NM
Sterling Construction Company, Inc. NasdaqGS: STRL 9.50 -24.1% 1,199 668 64.6% 6.4% 8.71 5.30 6.23
Construction Partners, Inc. NasdaqGS: ROAD 16.89 32.3% 809 892 8.0% 11.2% 9.87 8.89 21.33
Tutor Perini Corporation NYSE: TPC 6.72 -60.7% 4,743 969 73.6% 5.1% 4.00 2.90 NM
Median - Roads, Bridges, and
Highways
-42.4% 2,294 837 52.9% 5.8% 9.29 4.49 13.78
All figures reported in millions, except per share data
Source: Capital IQ
Bellwether Stocks  Industry Participants
Note: CX, CRG, HEI, and LHN report in foreign currency. Margin and multiples unaffected and shown for analysis.
© 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 17
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction  Building Materials First Quarter 2020
Ticker
Price at
3/31/20
52-Week
Perf.
LTM
Revenue
Enterprise
Value Debt / MVTC
EBITDA
Margin
EV / EBITDA
(x)
TEV / Next Yr
EBITDA (x)
Price / LTM
Earnings
Nonresidential
AECOM NYSE: ACM 29.85 0.6% 19,886 8,584 39.1% 4.8% 8.93 11.32 NM
Dycom Industries, Inc. NYSE: DY 25.65 -44.2% 3,340 1,675 53.6% 9.1% 5.52 5.57 14.12
EMCOR Group, Inc. NYSE: EME 61.32 -16.1% 9,316 3,662 18.0% 6.1% 6.45 6.95 10.49
Fluor Corporation NYSE: FLR 6.91 -81.2% 18,520 1,201 66.9% -0.6% NM NM NM
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. NYSE: J 79.27 5.4% 13,350 12,025 27.7% 7.2% 12.44 10.49 63.38
MasTec, Inc. NYSE: MTZ 32.73 -32.0% 7,081 4,068 40.0% 11.1% 5.19 4.58 6.38
Quanta Services, Inc. NYSE: PWR 31.73 -15.9% 12,069 6,018 30.2% 6.9% 7.22 5.63 14.42
Median - Nonresidential -16.1% 12,069 4,068 39.1% 6.9% 6.83 6.29 14.12
All figures reported in millions, except per share data
Source: Capital IQ
Bellwether Stocks  Industry Participants
Mercer
Capital
Construction 
Building Materials
Industry Services
Contact Us
Copyright © 2020 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged.
Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an
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building materials sector from aluminum and steel to brick, glass, and lumber.
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Residential Construction Impact from COVID-19 Pandemic

  • 1. VALUE FOCUS Construction & Building Materials First Quarter 2020 | Segment Focus: Residential Construction Executive Industry Trends ‱ Favorable economic fundamentals entering 2020 have been overshadowed by the spread of COVID- 19. Precautionary actions taken to counteract the virus are expected to dramatically lower economic activity and demand. ‱ Signs of economic fallout started to appear in late 1Q20 data but 2Q20 is expected to demonstrate a more comprehensive picture of the real time effects of the virus on economic activity. ‱ Construction has been designated as an “essential” sector throughout most of the country, allowing construction companies to continue to work in the face of a multitude of disruptions. ‱ A lower housing supply entering the pandemic, low mortgage rates, and government program support such as the CARES Act have helped support the housing market in the initial phase of the crisis. BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES In This Issue Construction Overview 1 Segment Focus: Residential Construction 4 Sector Round-up 10 Mergers and Acquisitions 15 About Mercer Capital 18 www.mercercapital.com
  • 2. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2011 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2012 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2013 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2014 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2015 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2016 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2017 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2018 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 2019 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 GDP($Billions) AnnualizedRealGrowthRate Quarterly Growth Average Quarterly Growth GDP (Current Dollars) Source: tradingeconomics.com -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Q 1-2010 Q 1-2011 Q 1-2012 Q 1-2013 Q 1-2014 Q 1-2015 Q 1-2016 Q 1-2017 Q 1-2018 Q 1-2019 Q 1-2020 National Construction Construction Overview Construction National GDP U.S. GDP contracted 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in 1Q20 (annualized decline of 3.6%), the first decline in twenty-two quarters. The decline is due to COVID-19, which was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. As governments responded by issuing “stay-at-home” orders, economic activity and demand plummeted. Many employers have switched to remote work or postponed operations which has led to a spike in unemployment. Economic growth is expected to be negatively affected for an indeterminate period with a declaration of recession on the horizon. Year-over- year construction GDP growth was 0.7% through year-end 2019. The deceleration in construction GDP growth over the second half of 2018 was primarily due to declining residential construction activity which recovered strongly through the end of 2019. Despite entering 2020 with favorable fundamentals, construction activity and demand will likely suffer with the broader economy from the fallout of COVID-19. Typical of the lagging effect on construction markets, industry participants should experience some benefit from backlog and pipeline activity as well as from lower interest rates. Construction Gross Domestic Product % Change in GDP Construction GDP Period % Change Q-o-Q 0.4% Y-o-Y 0.7% National GDP Period % Change Q-o-Q -0.9% Y-o-Y 2.1% *Construction GDP data through 4Q19 Source: tradingeconomics.com | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 3. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 The Federal Reserve historically gauges a healthy economy as sustaining an unemployment rate between 4.5% and 6.0%. The increase from 3.5% in February 2020 to 4.4% in March 2020 reflects the initial impact of COVID-19. The unemployment rate is expected to increase significantly in 2Q20 as economic activity slows. The unemployment rate is expected to crest 10% exceeding the worst rates during the great recession . The unemployment rate in the construction industry is typically more volatile because it is a cyclical and seasonal industry. The major contributing factor to the seasonal nature of the industry is the weather. Production of materials and projects generally decrease during the wet and cold of the winter months. The March construction unemployment rate was at 6.9%, compared to 5.2% for the same period last year. The construction unemployment rate achieved period lows of 3.2% in May and September 2019. Many construction activities have been designated as “essential” throughout the country (Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan, New York, and Vermont are the only exceptions), which may partially mitigate the decline in construction employment relative to the broader economy. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 2016 Q 1 2017 Q 1 2018 Q 1 2019 Q 1 2020 National Construction Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: The national unemployment rate is seasonally adjusted, but the construction unemployment rate is not to show seasonality and recent trends. Construction Overview Construction National Unemployment Unemployment Rate
  • 4. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 The value of construction put-in-place is the total value of construction work performed in the U.S. for a specified period. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks this data and reports the total monthly. This value includes, but is not limited to, building materials costs, labor costs, profit, engineering costs, interest, and taxes. Year-over-year put-in-place construction has increased by 9.0% for residential and increased by 2.0% for nonresidential. After declining in 2018, put-in-place residential construction continued to increase in 1Q20 as the sharp rise in mortgage rates in late 2018 reversed course throughout 2019. The decline in housing stats in March due to COVID-19 is expected to weigh on future residential construction. Nonresidential construction has been supported by increased spending at the local and state government level on public infrastructure over the past year due to a large backlog of deferred maintenance. However, public spending on infrastructure softened in the second half of 2019. Nonresidential construction will be disrupted going forward due to the negative economic fallout from COVID-19. Sectors that are expected to be particularly affected include the oil and gas due to the collapse in oil prices, commercial, office, lodging, and transportation. Construction Overview Value of Construction Put-in-Place $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 Q1-2010 Q1-2011 Q1-2012 Q1-2013 Q1-2014 Q1-2015 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q1-2018 Q1-2019 Q1-2020 $Billions Residential Nonresidential Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of Construction Put-in-Place Residential Period % Change Q-o-Q 0.7% Y-o-Y 9.0% Nonresidential Period % Change Q-o-Q 1.1% Y-o-Y 2.0%
  • 5. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 The global economy is suffering the effects of an ongoing global pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (“WHO”) as of March 11, 2020. COVID-19 is considered highly dangerous, particularly for the elderly and/or those with pre-existing conditions and chronic ailments that compromise the human immune system. Since its discovery, COVID-19 has spread throughout the globe. Health officials in numerous countries expect the incidence of infection and mortality to persist and perhaps accelerate through the first half of 2020. Governmental authorities in the U.S. and abroad have mandated limits on social gatherings and recommended that civilian populations take measures to isolate themselves to curtail further spread of the disease. All manner of public and private events have been canceled throughout the world, and travel and border restrictions have been enacted by the U.S. and many other nations. These restrictions are expected to negatively affect economic growth for an indeterminate period. The evolution of the pandemic, the extent of its economic and cultural consequences, and the results of steps taken and yet to be taken by governments and financial institutions are fluid and evolving in real-time. The consensus of the world’s central bankers and other leading authorities on the economy includes an expectation for a significant downturn in economic activity, particularly for the second quarter of 2020, and the potential for a global recession. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s responses to the deepening COVID-19 crisis have included emergency cuts to the Fed Funds Rate of 50 and 100 basis points on March 6th and March 16th, respectively. The Fed’s emergency cuts were not measurably successful in calming the volatility of financial markets. In March, the SP 500 Index registered daily index changes of between 2% and 12%, triggering numerous limit-down thresholds and resulting in mandated shutdowns in trading activity. As of March 31, 2020, the SP 500 had fallen 24% from its February 19, 2020 record high and 20% since December 31, 2019. The federal government passed three significant acts intended to respond to the medical crisis and mitigate its economic effects, culminating in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (the “CARES Act”) that became law on March 27, 2020. The Federal Reserve also has launched several programs and initiatives to alleviate funding strains and illiquidity in various markets, leveraging many programs created during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis. Additional legislative, executive, and agency-level actions may occur as policymakers seek to contain the economic downside of the pandemic and to promote economic recovery. Sector Focus Residential Construction
  • 6. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Prior to the ongoing pandemic, the home building sector was set to continue the positive momentum from the second half of 2019. Social distancing efforts and the ensuing economic downturn will dramatically hamper the demand for housing construction and lead to a decline housing starts and new orders. The construction industry has been designated as “essential” throughout much of the country (Pennsylvania, Washington, Michigan, New York, and Vermont are the only exceptions). Accordingly, some builders may be able to continue to work through backlog and current projects. However, they will contend with an increasingly disruptive operating environment as municipalities are slow to clear paperwork and labor constraints and supply disruptions complicate the work site. While the effects of the economic downturn were just starting to appear in the 1Q20 data, second quarter data is expected to reflect a more complete picture of the COVID-19 induced downturn. Housing supply persists at relatively low inventory levels which should support home prices; this is contrary to the oversupply of housing in the 2008 recession. The CARES Act allows some borrowers to delay mortgage payments for up to a year and relieves potential pressure on delinquencies and foreclosures. A significant increase in depressed properties would dismantle any support home prices currently have. Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level in four years, and the rising wave of refinancing has pressured banks’ ability to service demand. As the economic ripples of the virus spread, job losses and delinquencies may pressure credit quality and tighter lending standards may reduce credit availability despite low interest rates. Sector Focus Residential Construction (cont.)
  • 7. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 2016 Q 1 2017 Q 1 2018 Q 1 2019 Q 1 2020 Source: Freddie Mac 30-Year Mortgage Rate Period % Change Q-o-Q -27 BPS Y-o-Y -82 BPS Residential Construction 30-Year Mortgage Rate The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is the most common financing tool home buyers use in the U.S. Rising mortgage rates mean a higher overall cost to consumers, and therefore a decrease in the demand for homes. Mortgage rates have decreased by 82 basis points over the past year and 27 basis points over the first quarter of 2020. Rates peaked in late 2018 and contributed to a decline in residential construction demand. The decline in mortgage rates in 2019 prompted a renewed wave of refinancing as mortgage originations had suffered over the previous couple of years due to rising rates. The economic fallout from COVID-19 contributed to a further decline in mortgage rates, which struck a period low at the end of the first quarter of 2020. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the first quarter at just under 3.5% compared to a March 2019 rate of just over 4.25%.
  • 8. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 2016 Q 1 2017 Q 1 2018 Q 1 2019 Q 1 2020 HMI RMI Source: National Association of Home Builders Note: RMI is measured quarterly and approximated for a monthly basis using a straight-line approach. Residential Construction NAHB Indices National Association of Home Builders HMI and RMI NAHB HMI Period % Change Q-o-Q -5.3% Y-o-Y 16.1% NAHB RMI Period % Change Q-o-Q -12.7% Y-o-Y -11.1% The National Association of Home Builders (“NAHB”) conducts two separate surveys, the Housing Market Index (“HMI”) and the Remodeling Market Index (“RMI”), which measure confidence in the home building industry. Respondents rate their activity on a scale from 1-100 with 50 being average. The HMI is produced monthly and asks respondents to rate market conditions both at present and looking forward six months. The monthly index has remained above 50 since July 2014 and reached a ten-year high of 76 in December 2019. The HMI recovered in the first half of 2019 after housing market activity softened during late 2018. The decline in March 2020 foreshadows increasing uncertainty regarding the effect of COVID-19 on residential construction demand. The RMI is produced quarterly and asks respondents to rate their work volume as either higher or lower than the previous quarter. The quarterly index fluctuated between 50 and 60 since the second quarter of 2013 before declining to 48 in the first quarter of 2020.
  • 9. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Residential Construction Housing Starts Permit 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates of New Housing Starts and Building Permits (Millions of Units) Private Housing Starts Single Family Starts Private Building Permits Single Family Building Permits Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Permits at a given date are generally a leading indicator of future starts. Beginning with January 2014, building permit data reflects the change to the 20,000 place series. Private Housing Single Family Housing Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates of New Housing Starts and Building Permits (Millions of Units) Private Housing Starts Single Family Starts Private Building Permits Single Family Building Permits Period % Change Period % Change Period % Change Period % Change Q-o-Q -24.0% Q-o-Q -19.0% Q-o-Q -4.9% Q-o-Q -5.0% Y-o-Y 1.4% Y-o-Y 2.8% Y-o-Y 4.8% Y-o-Y 1.4% Building permits and housing starts are important indicators for the home building industry. Both reflect demand, consumer confidence, and the feasibility of financing construction projects. Building permits can be issued and then shelved by builders; therefore, housing starts are a more relevant measure for current activity in the industry. After declining nearly 75% from Q1 2006 to Q1 2009 as the housing boom decayed, housing permits and starts have steadily recovered but are unlikely to reach pre-great recession highs. Both private and single family starts dramatically declined in the first quarter of 2020 as COVID-19 negatively affected demand for new homes.
  • 10. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Residential Construction New and Existing Home Sales Months of Supply New and existing home sales provide a sense of the market demand for houses. Sales track the number of homes sold in a month. Months of supply is another measure of the home buying market;it shows how long it would take for all of the homes currently on the market to be purchased. It is alternatively known as the absorption rate. Six months is considered average and lower levels signify a pricing advantage for sellers and vice versa. Supply has dropped below pre-great recession levels, but new homes sold dropped in March 2020, which contributed to the increase in supply during the first quarter of 2020 as home builders started contending with the effects of COVID-19. 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 2016 Q 1 2017 Q 1 2018 Q 1 2019 Q 1 2020 MonthsofSupply HomesSold(Millions) Sold Supply Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Q 1 2010 Q 1 2011 Q 1 2012 Q 1 2013 Q 1 2014 Q 1 2015 Q 1 2016 Q 1 2017 Q 1 2018 Q 1 2019 Q 1 2020 MonthsofSupply HomesSold(Millions) Sold Supply Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve New Homes Sold and Months of Supply Existing Homes Sold and Months of Supply New Homes Sold Period % Change Y-o-Y -9.5% Existing Homes Sold Period % Change Y-o-Y 0.8% Month of Supply Period % Change Y-o-Y 10.3% Month of Supply Period % Change Y-o-Y 10.3%
  • 11. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Corporate profit is essential for companies not only to survive, but to grow and expand. When corporate profit increases, companies are generally willing and able to open new branches and divisions. These additions lead to more commercial construction. As seen in the chart below, corporate profit has flattened in recent periods (4Q19 data not yet available). The U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 lowered the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. The dip in the fourth quarter of 2017 is partially due to one-time deferred tax asset write-downs incurred by companies owing to the new tax rate. Corporate profits have suffered from the fall-off in economic activity due to COVID-19 and are expected to remain under pressure in the second quarter of 2020. Great uncertainty exists over the length and extent of the virus’s effect on future economic activity. Office and retail rental vacancy can also be a signal for new commercial construction demand. Low vacancy rates indicate a need for more space for companies to conduct business, which is a driver for the nonresidential construction industry. Both office and retail could experience increases in vacancy rates owing to COVID-19 and to “stay-at- home” orders that curtail foot traffic. COVID-19 may accelerate long-term structural changes that would permanently diminish demand for office and retail space due to expansions in work-from-home technology, evolution of corporate cultural, and accelerated e-commerce penetration. Sector Round-up Nonresidential Construction Corporate Profit $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 Q1-2010 Q1-2011 Q1-2012 Q1-2013 Q1-2014 Q1-2015 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q1-2018 Q1-2019 Q1-2020 $Billions Corporate Profit Period % Change Q-o-Q -15.9% Y-o-Y -11.1% Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
  • 12. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 Q 1-2010 Q 1-2011 Q 1-2012 Q 1-2013 Q 1-2014 Q 1-2015 Q 1-2016 Q 1-2017 Q 1-2018 Q 1-2019 Q 1-2020 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Sector Round-up Building Materials Industrial Production Index Industrial Production Index Period % Change Q-o-Q -4.8% Y-o-Y -4.9% The Industrial Production Index (“IPI”) is an indicator of economic activity that measures real production output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities industries. It acts as a barometer for the level of demand for industrial products and manufacturing activity. After oscillating for a couple of years, IPI steadily increased for most of 2017 and 2018. In December 2018, IPI reached its highest level of the examined period but experience limited growth during 2019. IPI began to decline in March 2020 as part of the overall decline in economic activity. Aerospace and automobile manufacturers will be particularly affected by the decline in traffic and air travel. $Billions
  • 13. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160 $170 Q 1-2010 Q 1-2011 Q 1-2012 Q 1-2013 Q 1-2014 Q 1-2015 Q 1-2016 Q 1-2017 Q 1-2018 Q 1-2019 Q 1-2020 $Billions Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of Utilities Construction Value of Utilities Construction Period % Change Q-o-Q 0.8% Y-o-Y 5.9% Sector Round-up Building Materials (cont.) Cement and ready-mix concrete are used in most construction projects involving the utilities subsector such as transportation, energy, gas, water, and sewage. There will always be some need for infrastructure activity, so building materials companies can rely on this revenue stream even though the growth rate of new projects fluctuates. TheValue of Utilities Construction has increased 5.9% year-over-year. Increased renovation and safety requirements have driven an increase in power construction investment as well as the shift from legacy fossils fuels to natural gas and renewable energy sources. Spending on water supply and purification construction is expected to increase as most of the country’s pipeline system was installed in the mid- 20th century and will require augmentation and/or replacement to address demand and/or water quality concerns.
  • 14. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Most of the funding for transportation infrastructure comes from public resources. Accordingly, activity in the contracting and building materials industries is typically correlated to level of government spending on construction activity. To bolster the economy during the great recession, government consumption expenditures and gross investments increased but declined significantly in the years following. After stagnating for much of 2013 to 2016, GCI increased throughout 2018 and 2019 reaching the highest levels since 2010. The growth in GCI was boosted by increased military spending as well as increased public infrastructure investment at the state and local level. As COVID-19 weighs on various construction sectors, public construction spending may prove to be stable a source of demand especially if fiscal stimulus accelerates. There is some risk that state-level funding capacity could be adversely affected by the significant decline in motor fuel purchases during the COVID-19 crisis. Accordingly, backlog and pipeline projects that normally lessen down-cycle declines in infrastructural construction could be delayed and/or reduced. $2,850 $2,900 $2,950 $3,000 $3,050 $3,100 $3,150 $3,200 $3,250 $3,300 $3,350 $3,400 Q1-2010 Q1-2011 Q1-2012 Q1-2013 Q1-2014 Q1-2015 Q1-2016 Q1-2017 Q1-2018 Q1-2019 Q1-2020 $Billions Sector Round-up Roads, Bridges, and Highways Government Consumption and Investment Government Consumption and Investment Period % Change Q-o-Q 0.2% Y-o-Y 2.4% Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
  • 15. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Sector Round-up Roads, Bridges, and Highways (cont.) $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 Q 1-2010 Q 1-2011 Q 1-2012 Q 1-2013 Q 1-2014 Q 1-2015 Q 1-2016 Q 1-2017 Q 1-2018 Q 1-2019 Q 1-2020 $Billions Source: U.S. Census Bureau Value of Highway and Street Construction Value of Highway and Street Construction Period % Change Q-o-Q 11.8% Y-o-Y 5.3% The value of road and highway construction increased 5.3% year-over-year as state and local governments increased spending on infrastructure in place of increased federal spending. After declining from its peak in April 2019, road and highway construction spending increased appreciably through 4Q19 and 1Q20. As state and local governments come under more budgetary pressures, especially due to responses to COVID-19, alternative sources of funding need to be exploited. Increased political uncertainty has clouded the future of road and highway construction as the FAST Act will expire in 2020 amidst the 2020 presidential election cycle.
  • 16. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Ticker Price at 3/31/20 52-Week Perf. LTM Revenue Enterprise Value Debt / MVTC EBITDA Margin EV / EBITDA (x) TEV / Next Yr EBITDA (x) Price / LTM Earnings Residential Beazer Homes USA, Inc. NYSE: BZH 6.44 -44.0% 2,172 1,375 88.2% 3.8% 16.75 7.60 7.00 D.R. Horton, Inc. NYSE: DHI 34.00 -17.8% 18,466 15,007 26.2% 13.3% 6.12 5.81 6.62 KB Home NYSE: KBH 18.10 -25.1% 4,817 2,941 52.4% 9.0% 6.78 6.29 5.41 Lennar Corporation NYSE: LEN 38.20 -22.2% 22,897 20,037 44.0% 11.7% 7.45 9.77 6.07 LGI Homes, Inc. NasdaqGS: LGIH 45.15 -25.0% 2,005 1,802 39.6% 13.2% 6.82 6.12 5.30 M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. NYSE: MDC 23.20 -20.2% 3,348 2,225 44.9% 9.5% 6.98 5.84 6.17 NVR, Inc. NYSE: NVR 2,569.11 -7.2% 7,320 9,055 6.7% 13.9% 8.93 8.67 10.85 PulteGroup, Inc. NYSE: PHM 22.32 -20.2% 10,511 8,024 38.9% 14.1% 5.42 4.74 5.83 Taylor Morrison Home Corporation NYSE: TMHC 11.00 -38.0% 5,183 3,141 71.9% 7.9% 7.64 4.54 7.02 Meritage Homes Corporation NYSE: MTH 36.51 -18.3% 3,860 2,106 53.0% 10.2% 5.34 5.36 4.70 TRI Pointe Group, Inc. NYSE: TPH 8.77 -30.6% 3,185 2,188 61.0% 11.3% 6.07 5.02 5.10 Median - Residential -22.2% 4,817 2,941 44.9% 11.3% 6.82 5.84 6.07 All figures reported in millions, except per share data Source: Capital IQ Bellwether Stocks Industry Participants
  • 17. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 16 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Ticker Price at 3/31/20 52-Week Perf. LTM Revenue Enterprise Value Debt / MVTC EBITDA Margin EV / EBITDA (x) TEV / Next Yr EBITDA (x) Price / LTM Earnings Building Materials Eagle Materials Inc. NYSE: EXP 58.42 -30.7% 1,451 3,300 40.1% 27.7% 8.20 7.18 34.63 Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. NYSE: MLM 189.23 -5.9% 4,435 15,020 24.1% 28.3% 11.98 11.40 19.88 Summit Materials, Inc. NYSE: SUM 15.00 -5.5% 2,257 3,355 53.4% 20.1% 7.40 7.45 20.39 U.S. Concrete, Inc. NasdaqGS: USCR 18.14 -56.2% 1,480 1,048 74.1% 10.6% 6.68 5.63 20.58 Vulcan Materials Company NYSE: VMC 108.07 -8.7% 4,982 17,256 18.3% 24.9% 13.89 12.73 23.14 CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. BMV: CEMEX CPO 0.21 -55.0% 13,121 13,288 78.6% 15.7% 6.44 5.43 34.04 CRH plc ISE: CRG 27.31 -12.0% 28,200 29,477 35.6% 14.8% 7.07 6.47 12.04 HeidelbergCement AG DB: HEI 42.31 -41.1% 21,225 19,497 61.3% 15.3% 6.00 5.57 6.66 LafargeHolcim Ltd SWX: LHN 36.70 -25.7% 27,591 36,088 39.6% 19.9% 6.56 5.54 9.65 Median - Building Materials -25.7% 4,982 15,020 40.1% 19.9% 7.07 6.47 20.39 Roads, Bridges, and Highways Granite Construction Incorporated NYSE: GVA 15.18 -64.8% 3,390 782 41.1% 0.3% 78.46 3.67 NM Sterling Construction Company, Inc. NasdaqGS: STRL 9.50 -24.1% 1,199 668 64.6% 6.4% 8.71 5.30 6.23 Construction Partners, Inc. NasdaqGS: ROAD 16.89 32.3% 809 892 8.0% 11.2% 9.87 8.89 21.33 Tutor Perini Corporation NYSE: TPC 6.72 -60.7% 4,743 969 73.6% 5.1% 4.00 2.90 NM Median - Roads, Bridges, and Highways -42.4% 2,294 837 52.9% 5.8% 9.29 4.49 13.78 All figures reported in millions, except per share data Source: Capital IQ Bellwether Stocks Industry Participants Note: CX, CRG, HEI, and LHN report in foreign currency. Margin and multiples unaffected and shown for analysis.
  • 18. © 2020 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 17 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Construction Building Materials First Quarter 2020 Ticker Price at 3/31/20 52-Week Perf. LTM Revenue Enterprise Value Debt / MVTC EBITDA Margin EV / EBITDA (x) TEV / Next Yr EBITDA (x) Price / LTM Earnings Nonresidential AECOM NYSE: ACM 29.85 0.6% 19,886 8,584 39.1% 4.8% 8.93 11.32 NM Dycom Industries, Inc. NYSE: DY 25.65 -44.2% 3,340 1,675 53.6% 9.1% 5.52 5.57 14.12 EMCOR Group, Inc. NYSE: EME 61.32 -16.1% 9,316 3,662 18.0% 6.1% 6.45 6.95 10.49 Fluor Corporation NYSE: FLR 6.91 -81.2% 18,520 1,201 66.9% -0.6% NM NM NM Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. NYSE: J 79.27 5.4% 13,350 12,025 27.7% 7.2% 12.44 10.49 63.38 MasTec, Inc. NYSE: MTZ 32.73 -32.0% 7,081 4,068 40.0% 11.1% 5.19 4.58 6.38 Quanta Services, Inc. NYSE: PWR 31.73 -15.9% 12,069 6,018 30.2% 6.9% 7.22 5.63 14.42 Median - Nonresidential -16.1% 12,069 4,068 39.1% 6.9% 6.83 6.29 14.12 All figures reported in millions, except per share data Source: Capital IQ Bellwether Stocks Industry Participants
  • 19. Mercer Capital Construction Building Materials Industry Services Contact Us Copyright © 2020 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our website at www.mercercapital.com. Mercer Capital provides valuation and transaction advisory services to the construction and building materials industries. Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves construction industry segments from to commercial and civil to residential.We also serve the building materials sector from aluminum and steel to brick, glass, and lumber. Mercer Capital Experience ‱ Family and management succession planning ‱ Buy-side and sell-side transaction advisory assistance ‱ Conflict resolution and litigation support ‱ Trust and estate planning ‱ Buy-sell agreement valuation, design, and funding advisory Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence. Timothy R. Lee, ASA 901.322.9740 leet@mercercapital.com Nicholas J. Heinz, ASA 901.685.2120 heinzn@mercercapital.com Brian F. Adams 901.322.9706 adamsb@mercercapital.com MERCER CAPITAL www.mercercapital.com BUSINESS VALUATION FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES