This document summarizes Matthew Brady's paper on Ontario's heating strategy from a socio-technical perspective. It provides an overview of Ontario's current natural gas-dominated heating regime, issues with natural gas, the role of niche thermal actors promoting alternatives, and what a comprehensive thermal energy strategy may include. Key points discussed are Ontario's reliance on natural gas for heating, environmental concerns with natural gas, programs supporting renewable heating technologies, and factors to consider in transitioning to a more sustainable thermal energy system.

1. +
Understanding Energy Strategies and Transition
Management from a Socio-Technical Perspective
The Empty
Space of
Heating Policy
Matthew Brady
MA Candidate
Carleton University
Spring 2015

2. +
Ontario’s Current Heating Strategy
n Achieving Balance: Ontario’s Long-Term Energy Plan (2013)
n CHP
n Efficiency Standards
n District Heating
“The quality of life and economic prosperity of Ontario depends on
having secure access to competitively priced natural gas and an
equally competitively priced natural gas transmission and
distribution system.”
Ontario Ministry of Energy, 2013, p. 75

3. +
Energy End Uses in Canada
Space
Heating
64%
Water
Heating
17%
Appliances
14%
Lighting
4%
Space
Cooling
1%
Space
Heating
50%
Water
Heating
8%
Aux
Equipment
27%
Lighting
11%
Space
Cooling
3%
Street
Lighting
1%
Residential Commercial
NRCAN, 2011
Industry?

4. +
Thermal Energy Sources in Ontario
Electricity
19%
Natural Gas
69%
Oil
7%
Wood Pellets
3%
Propane
2%
StatsCan, 2012

5. +
Issues with
Natural Gas
n Environmental Concerns
n Emissions (Venting & Leaks)
n Groundwater Pollution
n Price Volatility
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Natural Resource
Union
Enbridge
OEB, 2015
NG: Effective Commodity Price in Ontario

6. +
Building Emissions in Canada
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Canada Ontario
BuildingEmissions(Mt)
1990
2011
Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, 2014

7. +
Paper Methodology
n Transition Management and Innovation Literature
n The Multi-Level Perspective (MLP)
n Landscape
n Regime
n Niche

8. +
The Heating Landscape
n Expansion of Shale Gas
n Shifting NG Supply Landscape (US Imports) & Price of NG
n ‘Green’ Political Pressure
n Lobbing (i.e. Ontario Sustainable Energy Association)
n Emissions Targets & the LTEP

9. +
The Natural Gas Regime
n Organizational Actors
n NG Distributors Enbridge & Union
n Sm. Natural Gas Marketers & Retailers
Ziff Energy, 2013
Union Enbridge

10. + Figure 11: U.S. Coal-Fired Plant Retirements, 2011 - 2020
3.3.2 Electric Generation Ontario
Recent increases in Ontario natural gas-fired electric generation, as shown in Figure 12, have he
offset stagnant gas consumption levels in the province for residential and commercial (and a ma
downward trend in industrial gas consumption), with total Ontario gas demand reaching 1.1 Tc
Source: Navigant / StatsCan
Figure 12: Historical Ontario Natural Gas Demand by Sector
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Bcf
Elec. Gen.
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
The Natural Gas Regime
n Market Structure
n Decentralized System
Natural Gas Consumption in Ontario
Navigant Consulting, 2014, p 13

11. +
Niche Thermal Actors

12. +
Niche Thermal Actors
n Federal Programs
n ecoENERGY for Renewable Heat (2007-2011)
n ecoENERGY for Biofuels (2007-2017)
n ecoENERGY Home Retrofit (2007-2011)
n Provincial Programs
n Ontario Solar Thermal Heating Initiative (2007-2011)
n Home Energy Savings Program (2007-2011)
n Home Energy Audit Program (2011-2012)
n OPA SaveONenergy Heating and Cooling Incentives
n 2006 Update to the Ontario Building Code (OBC)
n DSM Energy Efficiency Frameworks
n NG & Electricity Utility Efficiency Rebates
n Municipal Actions
n Guelph: Heating Strategy & District Heating System
n London: Partnership with Union; micro-CHP, heat pumps, solar hot water heaters,
conservation programming

13. +What Makes a Heat Strategy
Comprehensive ?

14. +
Thermal Energy
Sources
• Natural Gas
• Electricity
• Heat Pumps
• Biomass
• Solar Thermal
• Geothermal
Technological
Problem
Identification
• Time
• Peak Demand
• Intermittency of
Energy Sources
• Scale Requirements
• Temperature
Needs
Thermal Demand
• Residential &
Commercial
Buildings
• Space Heating
• Space Cooling
• Hot Water
• Misc. (Swimming
Pools, etc.)
• Industry
• Continuous,
Intermittent and
Seasonal
Demands
RHC-Platform, 2011, p 25
Thermal Energy System Roadmap
* Conservation, System Efficiency (& Integration)

15. +
Discussion
n Niche actors must analyze economic, political and institutional factors that
determine selection pressures
n What can be done to build market and supply chains, improve environmental
performance and bring down capital costs of renewable heating systems?
n Split incentive/ microfinance
n CanWEA / CanSEA partnerships?
n Government must avoid ‘stop-and-go’ incentive programs
n Predictable and reliable investment conditions
n Where does energy quality fit in?
n Competition between renewable heating investments and efficiency
n Ontario must balance international experience and technology with local
market conditions
n Future appetite for a renewable heat obligation (RHO) in buildings?
n Perceptions as barriers (disruption, awareness)

16. +
References
Environmental Commissioner of Ontario [ECO]. (2013, June). Failing Our Future: Review of the Ontario Government’s Climate Change Action Plan Results.
Retrieved December 14, 2014, from http://www.eco.on.ca/uploads/Reports-GHG/2013/2013GHG.pdf
European Technology Platform on Renewable Heating and Cooling [RHC-Platform]. (2011, June). Common Vision for the Renewable Heating and Cooling
Sector in Europe. Retrieved December 12, 2014, from http://www.rhc-platform.org/fileadmin/Publications/Executive_Summary_-_Common_Vision.pdf
Ministry of Energy. (2013). Achieving Balance: Ontario’s Long Term Energy Plan. Government of Ontario. Retrieved December 11, 2014, from http://
powerauthority.on.ca/sites/default/files/planning/LTEP_2013_English_WEB.pdf
Minister of the Environment and Climate Change. (2014). Ontario’s Climate Change Update. Government of Ontario.Retrieved April 20, 2015, from https://
dr6j45jk9xcmk.cloudfront.net/documents/3618/climate-change-report-2014.pdf
Natural Resources Canada [NRCan]. (2011). Energy Efficiency Trends in Canada 1990-2009. Government of Canada. Retrieved April 5, 2015, from http://
oee.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/statistics/trends11/pdf/trends.pdf
Navigant Consulting. (2014). 2014 Natural Gas Market Review Final Report. Prepared for Ontario Energy Board. Retrieved April 2, 2015, from http://
www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/oeb/_Documents/EB-2014-0289/2014_Natural_Gas_Market_Review_Final_Report.pdf
Ontario Energy Board [OEB]. (2015). Natural Gas Rates. Retrieved April 18, 2015, from http://www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/oeb/Consumers/Natural+Gas/
Natural+Gas+Rates/Natural+Gas+Rates+-+Historical
StatsCAN. (2012). Household and the Environment: Energy Use. Government of Canada.Retrieved December 11, 2014, from
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-526-s/2010001/part-partie1-eng.htm
Ziff Energy. (2013, March). Ontario Natural Gas Background Report. Prepared for Ontario Energy Board. Retrieved, December 11, 2014, from http://
www.ontarioenergyboard.ca/html/oebenergyeast/documents/Background_Report_Ontario_Natural_Gas_Ziff_201403.pdf