Presentation given by Munqith M. Dagher, president and chairman\IIACSS

2. Methodology
• More than 2000 respondent Face-to-Face nationwide
poll using CAPI
• Fieldwork March to April 2017
• Probability random sample (PPS)
• Oversample in areas previously controlled by ISIS

3. Executive Summary
Though Iraqis, in general, are pessimistic about
the future, it is one of the rare moments when
Sunnis are:1)more optimistic; 2)more confident
in the prime minister and 3) more trusting in
Iraqi forces than other Iraq groups!!
Yet there are Sunni concerns to be addressed
and actions to be taken.

4. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds Da'esh pre controlled
51%
36%
5%
51%
DO YOU THINK THAT THINGS IN IRAQ ARE GOING IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION?
Nationwide poll April 2017

5. %
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Almost sure Would not vote
30%
20%20%
27%
41%
15%
30%
15%
HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT YOU WILL VOTE IN THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTION?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds Da'esh pre controlled
Nationwide poll April 2017

6. Al-Abadi will determine Iraq’s fate in the
post-ISIS phase

7. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds Da'esh pre
controlled
71%
62%
17%
71%
HOW FAVOURABLE IS AL-ABADI?
Al-Abadi Favorability
Nationwide poll April 2017
74%
36%
71%
90%
43%
62%
29%
15% 17%
Feb 2015 Oct 2015 2017
Sunni Muslim Shia Muslim Kurd

8. Sunnis are more supportive to Al-Abadi than others
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Support Oppose Not decided yet
50%
30%
10%
35%
50%
7%
15%
75%
5%
53%
30%
8%
IF PRIME MINISTER AL-ABADI DECIDES TO RUN FOR SECOND
TERM, WILL YOU:
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds Da'esh pre controlled
Nationwide poll April 2017

9. Sunnis give more credit to Iraqis Federal Forces (Army & Police)
Nationwide poll April 2017
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Iraqi armed forces (Army and
Police)
Hashd al-Shaabi International forces
65%
15%
6%
39%
45%
1%
WHO DO YOU THINK LIBERATED IRAQI AREAS FROM
ISIS?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab
74%
10%
2%
Iraqi armed forces
(Army and Police)
Hashd al-Shaabi International
forces
Da’esh pre-controlled

10. Sunnis and especially Mosul people trust Al-Abadi for their area’s future
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
New Governor appointed by the
prime minister
New Governor elected by the
provincial council
The current governor
66%
15%
10%
63%
15%
7%
WHO SHOULD GOVERN MOSUL NOW AND AFTER BEING
LIBERATED FROM ISIS?
Sunni Arab Da'esh pre controlled
52%
18%
7%
New Governor
appointed by the
prime minister
New Governor
elected by the
provincial council
The current
governor
MOSUL
Nationwide poll April 2017

11. What do Iraqis want for the future?

12. Sunnis want Nineveh to be part of the federal government and dislike other kinds of
federal and decentralization arrangements
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Remain current status Become part of bigger Iraqi Sunni region Nineveh should become a federal region
68%
6% 6%
58%
10% 8%
43%
8%
13%
WHAT DO YOU PREFER FOR THE FUTURE STATUS OF NINEVEH?
Sunni Arab Da'esh pre controlled Mosul
Nationwide poll April 2017

13. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Iraqi armed forces (Army and Police) Others
82%
3%
81%
3%
80%
2%
WHO SHOULD PROVIDE SECURITY IN YOUR AREA?
Sunni Arab Da'esh pre controlled Mosul
Iraqis Federal Forces (Army & Police) are the most favoured to provide security in
previously ISIS-controlled areas
Nationwide poll April 2017

14. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Be dissolved and integrated into Iraqi
Army
Remain as it is Completely disband
45%
15%
35%
42%
40%
5%
18%
5%
65%
45%
9%
35%
42%
10%
32%
WHAT DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE DONE WITH HASHD AL-
SHAABI AFTER IRAQ IS LIBERATED FROM ISIS?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds Da'esh pre controlled Mosul
Sunnis and many Shias as well don’t see any role for PMF after being freed
from ISIS
Nationwide poll April 2017

15. Yet, concerns about the future are serious

16. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Just a little concerned Not at all concerned
31%
38%
19%
11%11%
51%
31%
6%
31%
55%
13%
1%
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT IRAQI POLITICS WILL RETURN
TO THE WAY IT WAS BEFORE ISIS CAPTURED MOSUL?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds
Nationwide poll April 2017
41%
28%
20%
12%
Very
concerned
Somewhat
concerned
Just a little
concerned
Not at all
concerned
Previously ISIS-controlled
Areas

17. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very concerned Somewhat concerned Just a little concerned Not at all concerned
29%
32%
20%
18%
9%
29%
34%
28%
34%
52%
11%
2%
HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU THAT ISIS OR A SIMILAR
ORGANIZATION WILL REAPPEAR IN YOUR CITY?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds
Nationwide poll April 2017
38%
27%
16%
20%
Very
concerned
Somewhat
concerned
Just a little
concerned
Not at all
concerned
Previously ISIS-
controlled Areas

18. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Great deal of trust Moderate amount of trust Very little trust No trust at all
13%
40%
25%
22%
31%
50%
14%
5%
2%
15%
27%
56%
HOW MUCH TRUST DO YOU HAVE IN THE IRAQI
GOVERNMENT TO TREAT SUNNIS THE SAME WAY THEY
TREAT SHI'A?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds
Nationwide poll April 2017
16%
35%
20%
28%
Great deal of
trust
Moderate
amount of
trust
Very little
trust
No trust at all
Previously ISIS-controlled
Areas

19. %
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Much easier somewhat easier somewhat harder much harder
24%
39%
32%
5%
39%
52%
8%
1%1%
18%
66%
15%
DO YOU THINK THE POWER OF THE PMFS WILL MAKE IT EASIER OR
HARDER TO RE-BUILD GOOD GOVERNANCE IN THE PARTS OF IRAQ
THAT WERE CONTROLLED BY ISIS?
Sunni Arab Shia Arab Kurds
Nationwide poll April 2017
30%
38%
30%
2%
Much easier somewhat
easier
somewhat
harder
much harder
Previously ISIS-
controlled Areas

20. Thank you