1) The document analyzes India's foreign trade from 2010-2018 using data on exports and imports. 2) It finds that while exports have grown at an average annual rate of 4.06%, imports have grown much faster at 20.2% annually, leading to an increased trade deficit. 3) The top exports are mineral products, pearls, precious stones, and metals, while the top imports are also mineral products, pearls, precious stones, metals, and machinery.

1. India Trade
Marko Vasiljevic
Oct.16.2019.
About this project
In this project, we are going to analysis the Indian foreign trade. This kernel is easily
understandable to the beginner like me. This verbosity tries to explain everything I could
know. Once you get through the notebook, you can find this useful and straightforward. I
attempted to explain things as simple as possible. I am going to use plotly, matplotlib, seaborn
visualization to explore the data analysis.
Introduction
Indian exports have come a long way from the time of independence in terms of value. The
total value of India’s merchandise exports increased from USD 1.3 billion in 1950-51 to USD
63.8 billion in 2003-04 – a compound rate of 7.6 per cent.Indian economy and foreign trade
has shown progress post liberalization. In contrast to the pre-reform period (1950-90), the
actual growth of exports in the post-reform period has been above the potential offered by
the growth of world demand. The gap between the actual and potential is mainly explained
by an improvement in the overall competitiveness of India’s exports.
The major trade policy changes in the post-1991 period included simplification of procedures,
removal of quantitative restrictions and substantial reduction in tariff rates. A significant
development in the current account of balance of payments in the 1990s was the remarkable
growth in the exports of invisibles to the rest of world. This was made possible by
unfrequented growth in information and communication related services like computer
software, hardware, internet, e - commerce and telecommunication sector. The economic
reforms process introduced since 1991 with focus on liberalization, openness, transparency
and globalization has enabled increased integration of the Indian economy with the rest of
world. The growth rate of India‟s trade is increasingly dependent on exogenous factors such
as world trade growth (especially those of the trading partners), international price changes
and development in the competitor countries. Cross currency exchange rates as well as dollar
rupee exchange rate movements also get reflected in the performance of India‟s trade.

2. Objective
The main objective of the present study is to examine the trends in India‟s exports and
import in terms of value and to examine the structural changes in composition of India‟s
exports amd import.
1. Importing Packages and Collecting Data
I imported libraries such as: pandas,numpy,scipy,matplotlib,seaborn and plotly. I use this
libraries to work with data, analyze and make visualizations.

3. About Data
Data is downloaded from Kaggle and this is from 2010 to 2018. Here is a preview of both
dataframes.
In both the files we have 5 columns each are HSCode, Commodity, value, county, year.
What is an HS Code?
HSCode:- HS stands for Harmonized System. It was developed by the WCO (World Customs
Organization) as a multipurpose international product nomenclature that describes the type
of good that is shipped.
HS Code Structure
The HS code can be described as follows:
• It is a six-digit identification code.

4. • It has 5000 commodity groups.
• Those groups have 99 chapters.
• Those chapters have 21 sections.
• It’s arranged in a legal and logical structure.
• Well-defined rules support it to realize uniform classification worldwide
What is Commodity?
In economics, a commodity is defined as a tangible good that can be bought and sold or
exchanged for products of similar value. Natural resources such as oil as well as basic foods
like corn are two common types of commodities. Like other classes of assets such as stocks,
commodities have value and can be traded on open markets. And like other assets,
commodities can fluctuate in price according to supply and demand.
• Value: values for export and import of commodities in million US $.
• Export: Exports are the goods and services produced in one country and purchased by
residents of another country.
• Import: Imports are foreign goods and services bought by residents of a country.
Residents include citizens, businesses, and the government.
• Country: Country Imported From/ Exported To
• Year: Year in which comodities where Imported/Exported which is in between 2010 to
2018.

5. 2.Data Preprocessing
In this section, we going to transform or clean the data into an understandable format.

6. It's seems that both the dataset contains zero and nan values. so we have to clean them.
4. Exploratory Data Analysis¶
Exploratory Data Analysis refers to the critical process of performing initial investigations on
data so as to discover patterns,to spot anomalies,to test hypothesis and to check assumptions
with the help of summary statistics and graphical representations. In this section we are going
to descriptive analysis and graphical representations.

8. Let's expolre the above table:
Growth Rate:
Growth rates refer to the percentage change of a specific variable within a specific time
period and given a certain context. we calucate the annual growth rate.
Trade Deficit:
A trade deficit is an amount by which the cost of a country's imports exceeds the cost of its
exports. It's one way of measuring international trade, and it's also called a negative balance
of trade. You can calculate a trade deficit by subtracting the total value of a country's exports
from the total value of its imports.
Findings:
• Exports have done well particularly from 2016 to 2018.
• The average annual growth rate in the eight years has been 4.06 per cent.
• However, imports have grown even faster in the eigth years at an annual average of
20.2 per cent.
• Thus, average trade deficit widened to $-261,298.08 Million.
• The higher trade deficit could be attributed to a rise in petroleum, oil and lubricants
(POL) as well as non-POL components in imports.

10. Findings:
• The trend of petroleums products shows a perceptible shift between 2010 to 2018. The
exports of petroleums products was significant decline from 2013 to 2015.
• The exports of Gems & Jewellery also shows major decline.
• The exports of Transport Equipment and Machinery & Nuclear Reactors shows
increasing trade.

11. Findings:
• The imports of petroleums products was significant decline from 2013 to 2015.
Afterwards it showing inceasing trend.
• The imports of Gems and Jewellaries showing decreasing trend.
• From 2010 to 2015, imports of Electrical Equipment and Machinery & Nuclear Reactors
was low but after 2015 its shows significant increase.
•

12. Findings:
• China has biggest market in india followed by UAE, Saudi Arabia and USA
• For India, USA is biggest importer followed by UAE and China Republic.

13. Findings:
• Above two graphs giving more clear picture about the export/import of goods.
• Its seems that most exporting goods are Mineral Products followed by Pearls, Precious
Or Semi-Precious Stones, Metals and Chemical products etc.
• The most importing goods are Minerial Products followed by Pearls, Precious Or Semi-
Precious Stones, Metals, and Machinery & Mechanical Appliances etc.