I am a retail trader who tries to become a consistently profitable trader. I have put in a lot of effort the past years but decided it's time to share more of my work online. This is a playbook trade I made on QNGY. A playbook is a template where a trader captures the trades and patterns that makes sense to him/her. You break down all the variables of the trades and review your performance. Your playbook should be your trading business. I am inspired by the book: 'The Playbook' written by Mike Bellafiore from SMB Capital. I am happy on my progress reading the tape but there's also a lot of things I need to improve in order to become profitable. I would love to get constructive feedback since I am all about improving as a trader.
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Playblook trade - D1 Gap Up Low Float - QNGY.pptx
1. D1 gap up Low Float (LF) –
Momentum scalp trades
Ticker: QNGY
Date: 28-10-2022
By Maarten van Bemmel
2. Stock selection & Intraday Fundamentals
-Catalyst:
No news catalyst. Extremely weak stock. Gapped
up 43%. When it was on my scanners it was up
140% and already did over 10 million volume
within 15 minutes. Stocks with extreme volume
like this often aren’t done after the open.
Recent 1/20 reverse stock split.
-Setup: D1 gap up Low Float
-Trades: Opening PB, Opening BO, Wedge.
Float: 5,46 million
Institutional Ownership%: 11%
Short%: 4%
RVOL: 340
Premarket volume: 2,5 million.
Gap up: 43,08%
Cash left for only 2,1 months
Sector: Scientific and Technical Instruments
Company: Quanergy Systems, Inc.
3. Trade strategy
D1 gap up Low Float
A lot of these low floats can really make big moves
on day 1 (D1). Fundamentally these are bad
stocks so there are a lot of people shorting these
stocks on the backside of D1 or on D2/D3. But D1
is usually where the most edge is for long
scalpers. These are often not trades2hold or
move2move trades, but mainly these are just
momentum scalps.
The best longs are on low floats that trade a very
high amount of volume, RVOL under 10 I consider
very low. For large caps everything above 3 is very
good. Volume during the open is very important
for these setups.
Technical trade patterns
I focus on trading pullback’s (PB’s) and
breakouts (BO’s). I have a variety of
different trades that I am looking for
with different time frames, each has a
different name tag on which I have
stats.
Scalping momentum
Some of my trades are more
move2move trades, which means that I
will sometimes let them run longer
than my other scalp trades. But they all
include momentum and require the
skill to ‘read’ the Level 2 and the Times
& Sales. This is the ‘island’ where all
buyers and sellers come together and
place their buy and sell orders. I am not
very good yet at reading the tape yet,
and my main goal is to improve on this.
4. Bigger picture Longer term downtrend. Biggest daily volume
is only 9 million, which is very insignificant for
a low float that is in play. Daily chart is often
less important for low floats than large caps.
Often LF’s can make huge moves in
downtrends and higher time frame support &
resistance (S&R) levels are less relevant.
Those ‘biggest’ volume days were recently.
And the high of those days might form
resistance levels, but I would grade those
levels only 5/10 due to the lack of absolute
volume.
In the beginning of October, we had a clear
shift in small cap cycle. We went from a
strong cycle where there were multiple multi-
day-runners (like PEGY and TOPS) hold up
nicely, to a weak cycle were low floats usually
fade after the first day gap up.
5. Technical Analysis: The Open
Within the first 15 minutes there were already 15 million
shares traded, while the prior highest daily volume was 9
million shares. The stock halted, resumed 5 minutes later
and pushed higher.
Volume profile wasn’t perfect. Got 2/3 volume criteria:
low red(sellers are in control) volume bar compared to
prior high green(buyers are in control) volume bar. (These
criteria I have are based of stats for higher time frame
PB’s, but I often see that good 1m PB’s have the same
criteria as well.)
The pullback bounces of the 9EMA (grey line) which is
also criteria I want to see. This Exponential Moving
Average (EMA) is an indicator that measures the direction
of a trend. It’s exponential thus puts more weight on the
recent price action. This line is calculated on the weight of
the last 9 candles. In an uptrend I would like to buy near
the 9EMA.
6. Reading the tape: 1m PB.
In the retracement price bounced of the 9EMA and briefly strong(=
large in volume) buyers appeared at 3,11. We can’t trade lower.
Significant offers/sellers get lifted (bought up) at 3.20, I noticed this.
This means that someone is aggressively buying into their sell
orders. This is a change in character after price sold down and
reversed. Also, price doesn’t test this 3.20 level again, instead price
moves away from it. Sometimes strong offers get lifted, but then
immediately sellers step in again at that same level (false breakout).
So, buyers seem more in control. Then I noticed strong bids at .30
and .31, so I got in. My reaction time could have been faster for a
better entry. This is something I will practice while watching
recorded tape videos.
Trade management
My profit target was to sell for at a new high of day (HOD). But I sold
prematurely. At the time of the trade, while studying tape, I was
mostly focused on my entries and risk management. But in the
meantime, I have also studied and practiced to wait for a break and
to sell into strength. For the next similar setup, I’ll be better
prepared and will sell higher and into strength.
After the
bounce strong
offers
appeared.
Strong buyers
stepped up
after initial
strength.
7. Trading Breakouts
Breakout trading
-A breakout is an opportunity that
occurs when price moves above a
resistance level or below a support
level.
-When it works price usually moves
away from the key resistance level
quickly, with elevated volume.
- It can be the starting point for major
price moves, expansion in volatility in
and limited downside risk.
Trade criteria
-Stock in Play: RVOL>10
-Fundamental or technical
catalyst.
-Playbook setup.
-Some strength during the
open where buyers are in
control. Or there are obvious
levels where shorts are
trapped.
-A consolidation or
retracement
Entry criteria
-Key level of interest. An offer
identified on the level 2 or a
new high on the 3m chart.
-Buyers stepping up close to this
key level.
- Increase speed of tape & large
green prints on tape.
-Break of key level & bids
stepping up close
below/at/above key level.
8. Opening breakout : PB variation
After the opening drive, the stocked
pulled back into the 9EMA (grey line)
on the 3m chart (left) which is
potential support. There was little
selling being done in the retracement.
Then price consolidates on low
volume. This means that we’re in a
sideways trend and probably will lead
to bigger movers outside of this range.
The high of this consolidation is 3.50.
9. Reading the tape: Right side of the ‘V’
Potential trade before the breakout (didn’t take this entry)
-Price trends down and makes a low at 3,26 where relatively
strong bids step up. Now I want to wait for the next 3 minutes
to play out so we can establish a key level. We hit a high of 3,49
and can’t test 3,50.
-On the next candle price trades down and very strong bids at
.30 show up. I cannot enter here because we’re in a down trend
in this doesn’t have the high EV.
-Those bids get taken out and we trade down near the low of
the retracement, and even stronger bids step up at 3.25. Then
we trade up and bids step in again at 3,30. This is a good buying
signal and a perfect example of the concept of the ‘right’ side
of the V.
On the picture of the top
left we’re at point A
(‘wrong’ side).
After bids step up at 3.25
and they step up again at
3,30 we’re at point B ( the
‘right’ side).
Concept by Lance
Breitstein.
10. Reading the tape: BO & first strong offers
Tape starts to increase, and we come up to 3,50 level
where a lot of offers are stacked. Whole and half dollars
are called psychological levels and often are significant in
stocks with high percentage of retail participants.
First 1m candle after breakout
-First time it looks like it’s going to break out, but we fail.
The bids hold 3,46 for a while before breaking it. Then
price breaks the level and immediately bids step up.
-Price pushes to 3,70 immediately where we ran into
extremely strong offers. Bids are strong and we lift this
offer quickly and push to 3,74 where sellers show up.
- But then it reclaims .70. Bids keep stepping up with the
lowest and strongest bid at 3,65 .70 keeps on reclaiming
multiple times while the bids are also strong. Finally, it
seems the bids hold 3,70 and we’re look for a break over
3,74.
Strong sellers
that appear
after the
breakout.
It looks like we
lifted the
sellers, and are
ready to push
higher.
11. Reading the tape: Change of character
The bids hold 3.70. The first time we only pop down 1 cent and there a bids
showing up at 3,69. Also there aren’t large red prints as is shown on the
upper picture. We end up reclaiming and bids step back up at 3,70.
Flush
Then tape starts to increase again, and 3,70 bids drop. Immediately to 6,68.
But the difference is that now there are very large red prints. This is the
initiation of the flush and is shown in the bottom picture. Notice the
difference between the times and sales on both pictures.
And there are bids stepping up, but they are only briefly holding up. It’s
almost difficult to spot that they were stepping up because the got taken out
so quickly. This is called a flush and could be seen as the opposite of a
breakout.
Also, the prior strong bids at 3,65 didn’t appear. This was a strong bid and
the lowest level that got tested when price repeatedly try to break and hold
3,70 but failed. A break down this level is a clear change of character.
12. Wedge pattern
Wedge pattern was visible on
multiple time frames. First entry
was a false breakout. A couple of
minutes later we had a false
breakdown followed by a quick
reclaim.
Immediately we broke out. We
didn’t make a new low on the
1m chart (right chart) before we
made a new high of day (HOD).
13. Reading the tape: False breakout
Scenario
Key level: 3,65 = New 3m high. Tape starts to increase, and we have
a lot of green prints. Bids are stepping up, but these are not
extremely large bids. The level breaks and I should get long at 3,66-
3,67.
Immediately this wall of sellers disappear at 3,70. It get tested
three times without breaking. Whatever my stop was. I should get
out below the key level because this is not normal behavior. I want
the breakout to work quickly and move away from 3.70.
New rule: IF a wall of sellers appears just after the break of a key
level, THEN I put my stop below the key level.
IF the sellers can’t break within two test, THEN I sell on the bid and
get out.
Plenty of times I have lost too much on these false breakouts
because they quickly flush down. It’s better to get out quickly for a
small loss and try to get back in over the new key level: 3,71. If
these sellers don’t get lifted very quickly the breakout is unlikely to
work. I will use technology to mitigate the losses on these trade
where I am buying aggressively. I will put in a stop loss order just
below my entry price.
3,65 key level
before the BO.
Note the
number of
green prints.
It was the prior
3m high. 7/10
for the offers in
terms of
significance.
Moment
immediately
after the BO.
Wall of sellers
at 3,70 and
3,71. Should be
at least a 9/10.
14. Reading the tape: Wedge b/o
Scenario
Key level: 3,70-3,71. Very large orders on the tape. 9-10 significance.
Key level: 3,66. 3m high. Some offers but compared to 3,70 it might be a 6/10.
A false breakdown in a consolidation often occurs when big players want to stop
out the longs before running the stock higher and trap the shorts. This can be
an indication of a breakout to the upside.
The strong/more important the level is, the more powerful the breakout will be.
Price broke 3,66 and then took 3,70 out within a second and jumped up 10
cents.
-Then the first bigger offers were at 3,80 but we never traded below 3,69, which
is only 1 cent below the important key level.
-After that, the tape increased even more and there were plenty of big offers,
but none of them slowed the price action down. They all
got lifted without much trouble (reclaims or multiple fails of breaking that
level).
-First change of character was when the tape slowed down very clearly. Bids
were holding 4,10 and this was an 8/10 significant level. Then after we failed to
test 4,50, the first red candle appeared.
3,66 Key level that was
the prior 3m high. 6/10
significance.
15. Trade
Management
A) 1m PB. Great entry. Sold prematurely. Target was a new high of day. Lack of
reasons2sell.
B) Opening BO. Entered too early. Didn’t identify and grade the key level. I did notice
increase in green prints and speed of tape. After 3m new high, offers at 3,50 were
very significant, as could be expected from psychological price level. This was probably
the best entry. Lack of reason2sell so sold B/E.
C)False BO Noticed the increase in speed of tape & green prints. Didn’t identify 3,65
key level. Chased into big offers at 3,70. Lacked reasons2sell for a failed/false
breakout.
D)Wedge. Identified the right key level from previous trade, didn’t grade it. Entry was
very solid, entered 3,70. Sold pre-specified target for a new HOD.
16. Review & Improvements
Main problems
- Not knowing the key levels and not grading them. Grades are of course subjective but would at least help me differentiate the
difference of importance between the levels.
-Losing too much on the false breakouts.
- Having no clear reasons2sell, especially when a trade doesn’t work out. Also, when a trades starts working, I sell often too early.
What I did well
-Recognizing change of character before breakout: increase in speed of tape & large green prints.
- Focusing on the tape and trying to make good trades regardless of my P&L.
Solutions
- I cannot make a breakout trade if I don’t know the key level and its grade. Will practice this in simulation.
- Implemented a hotkey with a fixed stop loss. Will use this when I am buying aggressively on the ask for the breakout of an important
level. By nature, breakouts have a lower win rate. It’s therefore very important to limit your losses. By using a hotkey, I won’t have to
think about this. I will have less slippage on the most trades that don’t work. And the trades that do work often move away from the
key level immediately.
- I will implement a new sell rule (reason2sell): IF there’s a big offer at the tape that can’t get lifted, THEN I will put my stop at the low of
the prior 1m candle.
Often breakouts don’t pullback, they go straight up. Trailing up my stop along the 1m chart makes sense. Sometimes I will get stopped
out early and miss a bigger move. But most of the times when a lower low is made the momentum slowed down. But I also don’t have
to make complicated decisions in the middle of the breakout where tape moves very fast. This sell rule is subjective and fixed at the
same time. I think this is the best sell rule to implement for beginners.