D2 continuation play on ILMN, very similar to LULU the day before. Due to a mistake I missed this setup.. Lower volume stock, but it still made a very nice move and closed strong.

1. D2 continuation
Catalyst: Weaker than expected 2023 profit outlook
Setup: D2 continuation
Trades: HTF Trend PB
Ticker: ILMN
Date: 11-1-23

2. Bigger picture: QQQ/SPY and VIX
Premarket notes:
Breadth is still decent looking.
SPY and Q’s had a decent day
yesterday. Closed strong near
HOD after a midday trend.
Tomorrow the CPI numbers will
come out. Don’t expect a big
market move ahead of these
numbers.
Real trend days if we break
Monday’s high.
Everything is gapping up small.
XLE is performs best besides
ARK. TLT also stronger. SMH is
moving currently red premarket.
VIX level : >20; elevated.
Forgot to mention the importance of Yesterdays bounce of range high and
strong close. That’s significant. Also doesn’t make sense that we’ll trend ‘if SPY
breaks Monday’s high’. Given the open, the trend will start earlier. If we gap up
through this levels during the open, then we need to hold for a trend.

3. Catalyst &
Fundamentals
Catalyst: Weaker than expected 2023 profit outlook.
Setup: D2 continuation
Float: 156 million
Institutional Ownership: 91,1%
Short %: 2,56%
ATR: 8,95
Average Daily volume (50 day): 1,2 million.
Daily volume: 2,5 million.
Gap%/Gap ATR: -1,2% / 0,27 ATR
RVOL: -

4. Key levels
Support:
192 is intraday support of D1, and a
prior LOD. 8/10.
Resistance:
HOD1 is 199,34. Together with 200
psychological level this is the
infliction area for me. 8,5/10 level.
Below this I don’t want to get long.

5. D2 noon
continuation–
Trade Strategy
Stock selection
-Stock in play with a significant (technical) catalyst, earnings report or strong/weak theme.
-Elevated RVOL preferably above 3, but often on D2 plays volume is less elevated.
D2 noon continuation cue’s
-D1 is a Gap down bounce day and has made a strong reversal.
- Strong D1 open action. Eventually price fades low volume but closes above VWAP.
- First test of HOD1 fails: but no significant selling volume.
- Pull back follows.
-Break of HOD1 on elevated volume
Trade2hold factors
- Holding above significant support level: HOD1 8/10 importance level.
-Strong market, holding the lows in an uptrend.
-Market starts to trend intraday.
-Strong catalyst: Bounce day on D1 after large down move. Strong intraday price action.
- Elevated RVOL: not great, but good enough for a D2 play.
- Room to trend on the daily: gap fill towards 204.
-Only up 0.78ATR on the day, not extended) = Room to trend intraday.
-Taking out support resistance levels on a D2 setup indicates the potential of a trend day.

6. Trend PB - Trade2hold – Trade Management
Trade2hold - Flat
Significant 5m close above 20 EMA:
1) close on above average buying
volume;
2) a new 5m high that occurs after
close;
Goal: don’t sell more than 50%
when going flat.
Reason2hold
-Shallow volume and making lower
highs. Sometimes the trend is still
intact when there’s a significant
close above the 5m 20EMA.
Trade2hold – Exit strategy
-ATR moves: 1ATR
-HTF resistance. levels: 204
Trend PB
Entry: After price pulled in 5m 9 or 20 EMA
and after a bottom has formed on tape:
-We can’t trade lower.
-Tape starts to get stronger.
-Bids are stepping up.
-Stronger offers get taken out.
Risk: At the bottom of the pullback.

7. Technical
Analysis:
(HTF) Trend PB
10m holds above 9EMA,
5m holds above 20 EMA.
Shallow volume during PB
Pullback visible on multiple time
frames: 1m, 5m, 15m
Bounce of key level: 200
psychological level.
Elevated volume when PB
starts to work. Occurs late

8. What could I have done
better?
• I had this setup on my watchlist. After missing a similar setup on
LULU, I was excited about this setup. I knew what I was looking for
and didn’t have to prepare a lot. I knew my infliction area: HOD1.
When it breaks, holds above with shallow volume and bounces of a
key level; I wanted to get long. Very clear plan.
I thought I had set an alert, but I didn’t, I missed the setup….
• I will go over a checklist in the premarket to check whether I have
set alerts for each stock on my watchlist. I cannot afford to keep
making this mistake.