Weather Data: Virtual, In-Field, or Regional Network—Does It Matter?
Which data source is better? In the world of specialty crops, there is disagreement on how well weather-driven insect, disease, and frost prediction models actually perform. Dr. Dave Brown, former director of Washington State University’s AgWeatherNet spent years comparing different weather data sources and how those data affect the accuracy of common environmental models used by orchard growers. In this 20-minute webinar, he shares the surprising things he learned. Decrease chances of crop damage with one simple practice Find out how you can increase the accuracy of your predictive models and decrease frost, insect, and disease incidents by doing just one thing differently—improving the quality of your weather data. Discover: - Microclimates: what are the conditions like inside a crop canopy versus outside? - Virtual data vs. weather station data: Which is better? - How do site-specific weather data vs. regional network data compare? - How much does a small decrease in data quality affect the accuracy of your models? - What’s the value of in-orchard measurements? - What are some best practices for higher data quality? Presenter For 20 years as a faculty member at Montana State University and Washington State University (WSU) Dr. Dave Brown pursued research on soil sensors, spatial data science and digital agriculture. At both universities, he served in many leadership roles for major research projects, academic programs and most recently as Director of the WSU AgWeatherNet program. In this capacity, Dr. Brown hired and supervised a team of meteorologists who pursued research and extension activities focused on evaluating and improving the quality of weather data used for agricultural decisions.
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Weather Data: Virtual, In-Field, or Regional Network—Does It Matter?
- 2. WEATHER DATA VIRTUAL, IN-FIELD, OR REGIONAL NETWORK—DOES IT MATTER? Dave Brown, PhD METER Group, Inc. USA
- 3. DOES IT MATTER? WHAT USE? WHAT CROP? 3 Integrated Pest Management Crop Models Irrigation Frost Pesticide Drift Labor Management
- 5. GLOBAL MODELS NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION 5 Mathematical modeling of atmospheric physics • Forecast models @ time zero Multiple governmental models • Fundamentally NOT site-specific Derivative commercial grid products • Ensemble methods (combining models) • Statistical/Interpolation methods “Virtual” Weather Stations
- 6. WEATHER STATION NETWORKS MESONETS+ 6 Monitor regional weather • Open, level, unobstructed area with grass cover Long-term record • Standard configuration, high-quality measurements Not intended to monitor microclimate!
- 7. SITE-SPECIFIC STATION MICROCLIMATE + MANAGEMENT 7
- 8. ORCHARD EFFECTS Zagrodnik, Brown, Kalcsits, & Khot (2020-2023) 8 4 high-density apple orchards Average paired in-out difference
- 9. SITE-SPECIFIC STATION OUTSIDE CANOPY? 9 Key outside measurements • Wind – drift regulations • Evapotranspiration Wear and tear Reference for management effects Train site-specific forecast!
- 10. GDD COMPARISON 10 0 days 5 days 8 days 15 days
- 12. VIRTUAL VS. REAL STATION AgWeatherNet COMPARISON 12 156 Weather Stations, 2012-2020 • Duplicate air temperature sensors Daily high and low air temperature comparison • N = 445,102 daily comparisons Zagrodnik and Brown, 2020 https://extension.wsu.edu/wam/can-virtual-weather-stations-replace-real-weather-stations
- 13. VIRTUAL VS. REAL STATION DAILY HIGH/LOW COMPARISON 13 Virtual station not good if accurate real-time air temperature is required • e.g., frost, pollen tube, etc.
- 14. VIRTUAL VS. REAL STATION SYSTEMATIC SITE BIAS 14 Individual sites can be systematically off by a substantial amount
- 15. VIRTUAL VS. REAL STATION SITE BIAS STABILITY 15 Virtual biases can change from year to year
- 16. VIRTUAL VS. REAL STATION GDD BASE 50°F 16 1248 Station-Years 74% of sites had a 5+ day miss at least once in 8 years
- 17. VIRTUAL WEATHER DATA 17 How do growers “correct” weather data?
- 18. VIRTUAL + WEATHER STATIONS 18
- 19. QUESTIONS? Dave Brown Director of Pomology METER Group, Inc. 2365 NE Hopkins Ct, Pullman, WA 99163 T 509.332.5984 E sales.environment@metergroup.com W www.metergroup.com