Turnaround Management Association’s Town Hall: Oil & Gas Distress is a virtual town hall forum for members of Turnaround Management Group (TMA) presented May 20, 2020. This presentation provides insight for the implications of the Oil & Gas industry as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic. The Town Hall is part of a weekly series hosted by Turnaround Management Association titled, TMA Town Hall; Leading Through Crisis. The series was developed as an open forum for TMA members to discuss timely issues and for lawmakers, judges and financial advisors, lawyers and other practitioners to provide updates and answer unfiltered questions from corporate leaders and members of TMA. Benjamin W. Kadden of Lugenbuhl, Wheaton, Peck, Rankin & Hubbard, John Baumgartner of Stout Risius Ross, LLC and Kelli Norfleet of Haynes and Boone, LLP led the town hall discussion.

1. Oil & Gas Distress: Price and Quantity Considerations beyond COVID-19

2. TMA TOWN HALL
Oil & Gas Distress: Price and Quantity
Considerations beyond COVID-19
John Baumgartner
Stout Risius Ross, LLC
Benjamin Kadden
Lugenbuhl, Wheaton, Peck, Rankin & Hubbard
Kelli Norfleet
Haynes and Boone, LLP
May 20, 2020

3. PRESENTERS
John Baumgartner
Managing Director
Stout Risius Ross, LLC
Houston, TX
713.221.5149
jbaumgartner@stout.com
Benjamin Kadden
Managing Shareholder
Lugenbuhl, Wheaton, Peck,
Rankin & Hubbard
New Orleans, LA
504.568.1990
bkadden@lawla.com
Kelli Norfleet
Partner
Haynes and Boone, LLP
Houston, TX
713.547.2630
kelli.norfleet@haynesboone.com

4. OIL & GAS MARKET TRENDS
2020 OUTLOOK
Five-Year Historical Oil and Gas Prices as of May. 1, 2020
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
DollarsperMMBtu
DollarsperBarrel
Crude Oil (WTI) Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Source: S&P Capital IQ (as of May 1, 2020).
Based on the closing spot prices for WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas, as of the last trading day of each calendar month
(May 2015 – April 2020).

5. One-Year Historical Oil and Gas Prices as of May 1, 2020
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
DollarsperMMBtu
DollarsperBarrel
Crude Oil (WTI) Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
OIL & GAS MARKET TRENDS
2020 OUTLOOK
Source: S&P Capital IQ (as of May 1, 2020).
Based on the closing spot prices for WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas, as of the last trading day of each calendar month
(May 2019 – April 2020).

6. OIL & GAS MARKET TRENDS
2020 OUTLOOK
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) Short Term Energy Outlook, May 2020 (Release Date: May 12, 2020).
forecast
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
World liquid fuels production and consumption balance
million barrels per day
world production
world consumption
//
0
-5
0
5
10
15
implied stock build
implied stock draw

7. Source: S&P Capital IQ (as of
May 7, 2020).
Pricing (spot pricing and
forward price estimates)
based on monthly closing
prices for WTI crude oil as of
the last trading day of each
calendar month (January
2014 – April 2020).
HOW DID WE GET HERE?
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
WTIspotprice,perBarrel
Historical Spot Prices Jan 2014 Forwards
Jan 2015 Forwards Jan 2016 Forwards
Jan 2017 Forwards Jan 2018 Forwards

8. Public Debt: E&P
Maturities Set to
Peak in 2022
OUTLOOK 2020+
Source: Moody’s Investors Service (as of February 19, 2020).

9. Dallas Federal
Reserve:
Energy Survey
(March 25, 2020)
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Moody’s Investors Service (as of February 19, 2020).

10. Dallas Federal
Reserve:
Energy Survey
(March 25, 2020)
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Moody’s Investors Service (as of February 19, 2020).

11. Dallas Federal
Reserve:
Energy Survey
(March 25, 2020)
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Moody’s Investors Service (as of February 19, 2020).

12. Baker Hughes
North American
Rotary Rig Count
(Current as of May
15, 2020)
OUTLOOK 2020
Last week’s North American Rotary Rig Count of 258 is down from 292 the week prior (ending May 8),
and down from 800 one year ago. This marks declines of (11.6%) and (68.0%), respectively. Observing
the rig count provides an indication of the oil and gas activity occurring at a given point in time.

13. On average, what
percentage of
anticipated future
production have
reserve-based
credit facility
borrowers hedged
for the next 12
months?
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Haynes and Boone, LLP Borrowing Base Redeterminations Survey: Spring 2020 (dated April 1, 2020).

14. Where are
producers
planning to
source capital
from in 2020?*
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Haynes and Boone, LLP Borrowing Base Redeterminations Survey: Spring 2020 (dated April 1, 2020).

15. Oil and Gas
Bankruptcy
Filings Since 2015
OUTLOOK 2020
Source: Haynes and Boone, LLP Oil Patch Bankruptcy Monitor: Q1 2020 (dated April 6, 2020).

16. THANK YOU

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