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Developingscenarios foranalyzing andmanagingtrade-offsMonika ZurekClimate Focus BVAmsterdam, NL
This talk focuses on: Scenario         planning as a tool for analyzing  and managing trade-off Examples    from the Mil...
Trade-offs Involved in Resource ManagementDecisions                                      Water availability          Food ...
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was   An international scientific assessment completed in 2005.    Conducted by ~1400...
MA Conceptual Framework      Human Well-being and                Indirect Drivers of Change        Poverty Reduction      ...
Types of Ecosystem Services Trade-offsportrayed in the Millennium EcosystemAssessment Scenarios                           ...
VITAL SIGNS DECISION INDICATORS                             CATEGORIES                                                    ...
How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing and managing trade-offs   Better understand the elem...
The scenarios approach -What are scenarios? Plausible stories about how the future might unfold fromexisting patterns, ne...
Anatomy of scenarios                                                            Boundaries                                ...
Steps in a scenario planning exercise   Decide on purpose of scenario and    stakeholder involvement   Back casting exer...
Good Scenarios should   be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)   be internally consistent and coherent   be constructed wi...
The focal questions of the MA scenarios   Consequences (in 50 years) of plausible changes in drivers    and development p...
The MA scenarios                        Environmentally                        reactive             Global                ...
Modeling to quantify parts of         the MA scenarios                                   Model Outputs                   I...
…and to make it more complicated:         Ecological FeedbacksModel Inputs                AIMDemographic     Global change...
Changes in crop land and forest areaunder MA Scenarios       Crop Land            Forest Area
Some results related to agriculture   Demand for provisioning services, such as    food, fiber, and water, increases acro...
Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios
Human Well-being across the scenarios
How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing AND managing trade-offs   Better understand the elem...
Examples of trade-off decisions facedat different scales when managingagricultural systems   Farm:       Fertilizer use ...
Greenhouse gas emissions changesacross the scenarios
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika Zurek
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika Zurek
Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika Zurek
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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika Zurek

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Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_20 Feb 2013_Keynote Monika Zurek

  1. 1. Developingscenarios foranalyzing andmanagingtrade-offsMonika ZurekClimate Focus BVAmsterdam, NL
  2. 2. This talk focuses on: Scenario planning as a tool for analyzing and managing trade-off Examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario work to illustrate the use of scenario planning for exploring different trade-offs decision makers face
  3. 3. Trade-offs Involved in Resource ManagementDecisions Water availability Food supply and Freshwater supply and demand demand Water use and nutrient loss Erosion and water flow Forest product supply and demandClimatechange Biodiversity loss Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.
  4. 4. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was An international scientific assessment completed in 2005. Conducted by ~1400 scientists from 100 countries. Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of international conventions, private sector, civil society and others Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build capacity to provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs
  5. 5. MA Conceptual Framework Human Well-being and Indirect Drivers of Change Poverty Reduction  Demographic  Basic material for a good life  Economic  Health (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)   Security Human Good Social Relations  Indirect (governance and Sociopolitical  Well-being Freedom of choice and action Drivers institutional framework)  Science and Technology  Cultural and Religious Direct Drivers of Change  Changes in land use Ecosystem  Direct Species introduction or removal  Technology adaptation and use Services  Drivers External inputs (e.g., irrigation)  Resource consumption  Climate change  Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
  6. 6. Types of Ecosystem Services Trade-offsportrayed in the Millennium EcosystemAssessment Scenarios MA 2005, Vol 3
  7. 7. VITAL SIGNS DECISION INDICATORS CATEGORIES Human EcosystemsThread Indicator Agriculture well Services beingClimate Forcing Net AFOLU Climate Forcing XBiodiversity Biodiversity Security XWood Fuel Wood fuel Energy Security X X Rangeland degradation XLivestock Forage Adequacy X XWater Water Security X X XResilience Resilience or buffering index X X XInclusive Wealth Sustainability index X X XFood Security Food Security Index X XSoil Health Soil Health Index X XAg. Intensification Yield Target (%) XPoverty Poverty XHealth Prevalence of malaria, diarrhea, anemia XNutrition % overweight, under weight, X
  8. 8. How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing and managing trade-offs Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
  9. 9. The scenarios approach -What are scenarios? Plausible stories about how the future might unfold fromexisting patterns, new factors and alternative human choices.The stories can be told in the language of both words andnumbers (Raskin, in press).Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, basedon a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptionsabout key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000). A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternativefuture environments in which one’s decision might be playedout (Schwartz 1996).Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what mighthappen under particular assumptions (MA).
  10. 10. Anatomy of scenarios Boundaries •Spatial Key Dimensions •Thematic •Multi-dimensional •Temporal space of variablesCurrent Situation•Historic context•Institutional description Driving Forces•Quantitative accounts •Trends •Processes Image of the Future Critical Uncertainties •Resolution alters course of events Plot •Captures dynamics •Communicates effectively Source: P. Raskin 2002
  11. 11. Steps in a scenario planning exercise Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement Back casting exercise Identification of main areas of uncertainty Identification of main drivers of change Develop first set of storylines Critically assess storylines Identify important surprises Decide on modeling capacity Stakeholder feedback session & iterations Final write up
  12. 12. Good Scenarios should be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘) be internally consistent and coherent be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity meet the goals of scenario exercise Source: T. Henrichs 2003
  13. 13. The focal questions of the MA scenarios Consequences (in 50 years) of plausible changes in drivers and development pathways  For ecosystems and their services  For human well-being Four scenarios. What happens when decision-makers  1. Emphasize global economic policy reform  2. Give primary emphasis to self-reliance, security and the local and regional environment  3. Emphasize the development and use of technologies allowing greater eco-efficiency and adaptive control  4. Emphasize adaptive co-management and local learning about socio-ecological systems
  14. 14. The MA scenarios Environmentally reactive Global Order from Orchestration Strengthglobalized fragmented Techno Adapting Garden Mosaic Environmentally pro-active
  15. 15. Modeling to quantify parts of the MA scenarios Model Outputs IMPACT Provisioning Services World food production - Food (meat, fish, grain production) Model Inputs - Fiber (timber) - Freshwater (renewable Demographic AIM water resources & Economic withdrawals) Global change Technological - Fuel wood (biofuels) Regulating IMAGE 2 - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S Global change emissions) SupportingStorylines primary production WaterGAPEconomic World waterOptimism Techno resourcesGarden, etc.
  16. 16. …and to make it more complicated: Ecological FeedbacksModel Inputs AIMDemographic Global changeEconomicTechnological IMAGE 2 Measures of Global change Biodiversity habitat (e.g. land cover, Models IMPACT river discharge) World food production WaterGAP Number of World water Species resources Ecological Ecosystem Feedbacks Function
  17. 17. Changes in crop land and forest areaunder MA Scenarios Crop Land Forest Area
  18. 18. Some results related to agriculture Demand for provisioning services, such as food, fiber, and water, increases across scenarios. Food security remains out of reach for many people and child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios and more diversified diets in poor countries.
  19. 19. Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios
  20. 20. Human Well-being across the scenarios
  21. 21. How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing AND managing trade-offs Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
  22. 22. Examples of trade-off decisions facedat different scales when managingagricultural systems Farm:  Fertilizer use versus water quality Region:  Intensifying production versus taking new land into production Globe:  Managing agriculture for food production alone versus food AND environmental stewardship  Managing agriculture-environment-human wellbeing trade-offs proactively or reactively
  23. 23. Greenhouse gas emissions changesacross the scenarios

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