This talk focuses on: Scenario planning as a tool for analyzing and managing trade-off Examples from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenario work to illustrate the use of scenario planning for exploring different trade-offs decision makers face
Trade-offs Involved in Resource ManagementDecisions Water availability Food supply and Freshwater supply and demand demand Water use and nutrient loss Erosion and water flow Forest product supply and demandClimatechange Biodiversity loss Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment was An international scientific assessment completed in 2005. Conducted by ~1400 scientists from 100 countries. Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of international conventions, private sector, civil society and others Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build capacity to provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs
MA Conceptual Framework Human Well-being and Indirect Drivers of Change Poverty Reduction Demographic Basic material for a good life Economic Health (globalization, trade, market and policy framework) Security Human Good Social Relations Indirect (governance and Sociopolitical Well-being Freedom of choice and action Drivers institutional framework) Science and Technology Cultural and Religious Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Ecosystem Direct Species introduction or removal Technology adaptation and use Services Drivers External inputs (e.g., irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
Types of Ecosystem Services Trade-offsportrayed in the Millennium EcosystemAssessment Scenarios MA 2005, Vol 3
VITAL SIGNS DECISION INDICATORS CATEGORIES Human EcosystemsThread Indicator Agriculture well Services beingClimate Forcing Net AFOLU Climate Forcing XBiodiversity Biodiversity Security XWood Fuel Wood fuel Energy Security X X Rangeland degradation XLivestock Forage Adequacy X XWater Water Security X X XResilience Resilience or buffering index X X XInclusive Wealth Sustainability index X X XFood Security Food Security Index X XSoil Health Soil Health Index X XAg. Intensification Yield Target (%) XPoverty Poverty XHealth Prevalence of malaria, diarrhea, anemia XNutrition % overweight, under weight, X
How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing and managing trade-offs Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
The scenarios approach -What are scenarios? Plausible stories about how the future might unfold fromexisting patterns, new factors and alternative human choices.The stories can be told in the language of both words andnumbers (Raskin, in press).Plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, basedon a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptionsabout key relationships and driving forces (Nakicenovic 2000). A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternativefuture environments in which one’s decision might be playedout (Schwartz 1996).Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what mighthappen under particular assumptions (MA).
Anatomy of scenarios Boundaries •Spatial Key Dimensions •Thematic •Multi-dimensional •Temporal space of variablesCurrent Situation•Historic context•Institutional description Driving Forces•Quantitative accounts •Trends •Processes Image of the Future Critical Uncertainties •Resolution alters course of events Plot •Captures dynamics •Communicates effectively Source: P. Raskin 2002
Steps in a scenario planning exercise Decide on purpose of scenario and stakeholder involvement Back casting exercise Identification of main areas of uncertainty Identification of main drivers of change Develop first set of storylines Critically assess storylines Identify important surprises Decide on modeling capacity Stakeholder feedback session & iterations Final write up
Good Scenarios should be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘) be internally consistent and coherent be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity meet the goals of scenario exercise Source: T. Henrichs 2003
The focal questions of the MA scenarios Consequences (in 50 years) of plausible changes in drivers and development pathways For ecosystems and their services For human well-being Four scenarios. What happens when decision-makers 1. Emphasize global economic policy reform 2. Give primary emphasis to self-reliance, security and the local and regional environment 3. Emphasize the development and use of technologies allowing greater eco-efficiency and adaptive control 4. Emphasize adaptive co-management and local learning about socio-ecological systems
The MA scenarios Environmentally reactive Global Order from Orchestration Strengthglobalized fragmented Techno Adapting Garden Mosaic Environmentally pro-active
Modeling to quantify parts of the MA scenarios Model Outputs IMPACT Provisioning Services World food production - Food (meat, fish, grain production) Model Inputs - Fiber (timber) - Freshwater (renewable Demographic AIM water resources & Economic withdrawals) Global change Technological - Fuel wood (biofuels) Regulating IMAGE 2 - Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx, S Global change emissions) SupportingStorylines primary production WaterGAPEconomic World waterOptimism Techno resourcesGarden, etc.
…and to make it more complicated: Ecological FeedbacksModel Inputs AIMDemographic Global changeEconomicTechnological IMAGE 2 Measures of Global change Biodiversity habitat (e.g. land cover, Models IMPACT river discharge) World food production WaterGAP Number of World water Species resources Ecological Ecosystem Feedbacks Function
Changes in crop land and forest areaunder MA Scenarios Crop Land Forest Area
Some results related to agriculture Demand for provisioning services, such as food, fiber, and water, increases across scenarios. Food security remains out of reach for many people and child malnutrition will be difficult to eradicate even by 2050, despite increasing food supply under all four scenarios and more diversified diets in poor countries.
Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios
How can scenario development/forward looking work help withanalyzing AND managing trade-offs Better understand the elements and driving forces, their speed and interactions, which govern the system Clarify the multiple objectives that stakeholders have with respect to the system’s management Analyze and visualize trade-offs often made implicitly when deciding on a course of action Decide on and communicate a strategy for managing the system
Examples of trade-off decisions facedat different scales when managingagricultural systems Farm: Fertilizer use versus water quality Region: Intensifying production versus taking new land into production Globe: Managing agriculture for food production alone versus food AND environmental stewardship Managing agriculture-environment-human wellbeing trade-offs proactively or reactively
Greenhouse gas emissions changesacross the scenarios