Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 3.7_Mark van Wijk

156 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
156
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Workshop Trade-off Analysis - CGIAR_19 Feb 2013_CRP 3.7_Mark van Wijk

  1. 1. More milk, meat and fish by and for the poorLivestock and Fish CGIAR Research Program (CRP 3.7) Mark van Wijk
  2. 2. 3.7 Livestock and Fish: AimTo increase the productivity of small-scalelivestock and fish systems in sustainableways, making meat, milk and fish more availableand affordable to poor consumers across thedeveloping world
  3. 3. Themes• Technology Development: Improved technologies to sustainably increase productivity and efficiency of livestock and fish production (health, genetics, feeding)• Value Chain Development: Development strategies for pro‐poor, gender‐equitable value chains for livestock and fish products• Targeting, gender and impact assessment
  4. 4. Targeting• LCA’s• Ex-ante impact assessment across scales (livestock subsystem, farm, livelihood, community, lands cape)• Tradeoffs between productivity and environment
  5. 5. Targeting: trade off across scales/levels Community Environment Farm livelihood
  6. 6. Targeting: trade off across scales/levels Multi-agent models, land use models Community rangeland, hydrology, soil C and GHG models Environment Farm livelihood Farm models: simulation and optimization
  7. 7. Approaches envisaged: heavy computing 200 180 Initial population N losses at farm [kg] (kg) 160 Farm N loss scale 140 120 100 80 0 1000 1 2000 2 3000 3 4000 4 5000 5 6000 6 7000 7 8000 8 Farm grain yield [kg] Farm-scale maize grain production (t)
  8. 8. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  9. 9. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  10. 10. Approaches envisaged: more simple modelling 3000 3 years milk production kg / animal 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 average grain production over 10 yr run kg / ha / yr
  11. 11. Toys are in place, but…• (rapid) parameterization / model testing across sites• Upscaling/outscaling• Models good for strategic analyses, but how meaningful on the ground
  12. 12. Which indicators?? Y X ?
  13. 13. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ?Y X
  14. 14. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ?Y ? X
  15. 15. Which strategies result in certain outcomes? ?Y ? ? X
  16. 16. Where do actors want to be? ?Y X
  17. 17. Thresholds? ?Y ? X
  18. 18. Alleviation possible? ?Y X
  19. 19. Where does Piet want to be?Methodologiestechnicalities PIET ? Generic discussion on importance of trade offs
  20. 20. Thanks!

×