The document discusses the global biodiesel landscape. It provides an overview of biodiesel markets and policies around the world, including major production and consumption countries/regions. Key points addressed include the political factors influencing biodiesel, a comparison of major markets like the US and EU, the rise of waste-based feedstocks, ongoing supply and demand trends worldwide, impacts of trade regulations, and uncertainties around future demand growth in places like Asia.
2. 1.A political commodity
2.What if we compare the markets?
3.Supply and demand worldwide
4.Trade flows: an ongoing war
5.What’s next for biodiesel?
THE GLOBAL BIODIESEL LANDSCAPE
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – Mar. 2018
4. BIODIESEL: PRICE vs MINERAL DIESEL
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
FAME-0 FOB Rotterdam vs ICE Gasoil (USD/MT)
5. BIODIESEL:APOLITICAL COMMODITY
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
2005: US Energy Policy Act creating the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
2007: US Energy Independence and Security Act expanding the RFS
6. BIODIESEL MANDATES: INCEPTION DATES
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia: 2015
Malaysia: 2011
Thailand: 2012
Peru: 2011
Brazil: 2008
South Korea: 2006
Argentina: 2007
China: ?
7. EU: THE WORLD’S BIGGEST MARKET
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
2001: Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources
2009: Renewable Energy Directive (RED) introducing big changes:
- Sustainability
- Double counting for waste-based biofuels
9. BIODIESEL: THE DIFFERENT MANDATE TYPES
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
GHG reduction based (Germany,
Sweden)
Volumetric or energy content
based (Rest of the EU)
RIN based (USA)
10. FEEDSTOCK COMPARISON: USA vs EU
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
USA feedstock mix (%)
Source: USDA
EU feedstock mix (%)
Source: Eurostat
11. FEEDSTOCKS: THE RISE OF WASTE
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: EU UCO imports
Source: Eurostat
17. THE IMPACT OF TRADE REGULATIONS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: EU import structure changes since 2012 (MT)
Anti dumping duties
imposed (11/2013)
Argentina allowed
back (09/2017)
Source: Eurostat
18. THE IMPACT OF TRADE REGULATIONS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: US import structure changes in 2017 (MT)
Source: Square Commodities
Anti dumping duties
imposed (08/2017)
19. AND MANY CLOSED MARKETS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil
Argentina
21. EU: CONSUMPTION KEEPS INCREASING
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HVO
FAME
Source: Repsol Source: Square Commodities
Pushed by waste-based and HVO grades
EU Biodiesel consumption (kMT)
22. US DEMAND GROWTH
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
California proposed GHG savings Oregon proposed GHG savings
Pushed by ambitious USWC mandates
23. ASIAN DEMAND GROWTH
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia: B15 to B20
Malaysia: B7 to B10
Thailand: B7 to B10
South Korea: B2.5 to B3
China: B5 ?
India: B5 ?
24. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
Final shape of the RED II regulation (palm oil ban?)
Implementation of a B5 mandate in China
Trump Administration reforms of the RFS
More trade wars to come?
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – Feb. 2018
