The document discusses the global biodiesel landscape. It provides an overview of biodiesel markets and policies around the world, including major production and consumption countries/regions. Key points addressed include the political factors influencing biodiesel, a comparison of major markets like the US and EU, the rise of waste-based feedstocks, ongoing supply and demand trends worldwide, impacts of trade regulations, and uncertainties around future demand growth in places like Asia.

1. THE GLOBAL BIODIESEL
LANDSCAPE
Argus Biodiesel Conference – Beijing, March 2018

2. 1.A political commodity
2.What if we compare the markets?
3.Supply and demand worldwide
4.Trade flows: an ongoing war
5.What’s next for biodiesel?
THE GLOBAL BIODIESEL LANDSCAPE
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – Mar. 2018

3. A political commodity

4. BIODIESEL: PRICE vs MINERAL DIESEL
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
FAME-0 FOB Rotterdam vs ICE Gasoil (USD/MT)

5. BIODIESEL:APOLITICAL COMMODITY
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
2005: US Energy Policy Act creating the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
2007: US Energy Independence and Security Act expanding the RFS

6. BIODIESEL MANDATES: INCEPTION DATES
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia: 2015
Malaysia: 2011
Thailand: 2012
Peru: 2011
Brazil: 2008
South Korea: 2006
Argentina: 2007
China: ?

7. EU: THE WORLD’S BIGGEST MARKET
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
2001: Directive on Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources
2009: Renewable Energy Directive (RED) introducing big changes:
- Sustainability
- Double counting for waste-based biofuels

8. What if we compare the markets?

9. BIODIESEL: THE DIFFERENT MANDATE TYPES
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
GHG reduction based (Germany,
Sweden)
Volumetric or energy content
based (Rest of the EU)
RIN based (USA)

10. FEEDSTOCK COMPARISON: USA vs EU
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
USA feedstock mix (%)
Source: USDA
EU feedstock mix (%)
Source: Eurostat

11. FEEDSTOCKS: THE RISE OF WASTE
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: EU UCO imports
Source: Eurostat

12. What about supply and demand
worldwide?

13. BIODIESEL S&D: THE END USERS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Biodiesel consumption by country – 2017 (kMT)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000

14. BIODIESEL S&D: THE PRODUCERS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – Mar. 2018
Biodiesel production by country – 2017 (kMT)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000

15. BIODIESEL S&D: TRADE BALANCES
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Biodiesel balances by country – 2017 (kMT)

16. Trade flows: an ongoing war

17. THE IMPACT OF TRADE REGULATIONS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: EU import structure changes since 2012 (MT)
Anti dumping duties
imposed (11/2013)
Argentina allowed
back (09/2017)
Source: Eurostat

18. THE IMPACT OF TRADE REGULATIONS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
An example: US import structure changes in 2017 (MT)
Source: Square Commodities
Anti dumping duties
imposed (08/2017)

19. AND MANY CLOSED MARKETS
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Brazil
Argentina

20. What’s next for biodiesel?

21. EU: CONSUMPTION KEEPS INCREASING
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HVO
FAME
Source: Repsol Source: Square Commodities
Pushed by waste-based and HVO grades
EU Biodiesel consumption (kMT)

22. US DEMAND GROWTH
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
California proposed GHG savings Oregon proposed GHG savings
Pushed by ambitious USWC mandates

23. ASIAN DEMAND GROWTH
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – March 2018
Indonesia: B15 to B20
Malaysia: B7 to B10
Thailand: B7 to B10
South Korea: B2.5 to B3
China: B5 ?
India: B5 ?

24. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN
Final shape of the RED II regulation (palm oil ban?)
Implementation of a B5 mandate in China
Trump Administration reforms of the RFS
More trade wars to come?
Repsol Trading Singapore – prepared by Loic Brachet – Feb. 2018

25. Thank you