After a +3% point rise in consumer confidence in the third quarter of 2017, the latest Deloitte Consumer Tracker remains flat at -7%. This quarter’s results represent the first time since our survey began in 2011 that confidence has not fallen in the final quarter of the year.

1. The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
Charts and analysis
January 2018
Key indicators
Q4 2017

2. The Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
Key indicators
Previous
Latest
-7%
-7%
Overall
consumer
confidence
(q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-21%
-17%
Confidence
in level of
disposable
income (q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-4%
-3%
Confidence
in levels of
debt
(q/q)*
Previous
Latest
-4%
-3%
Confidence
in job
security
(q/q)*
*Net balances

3. Consumer confidence has
remained flat compared to Q3
Consumer confidence has remained
at -7%. This is the first time since
our survey began that Q4 has not
seen a decline in confidence
Deloitte consumer confidence
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
Source: Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-1%
0%

4. Consumer confidence about job security
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
201720162015201420132012
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
201720162015201420132012
Consumer confidence about your general health and wellbeing
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
Consumer confidence about job opportunities and career progression
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
201720162015201420132012
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
201720162015201420132012
Consumer confidence about your level of debt
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
201720162015201420132012
Consumer confidence about your household disposable income
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
Individual measures of consumer confidence tell a mixed story
Three measures report growth and two report a decline in confidence, with consumers reporting growing
confidence in their level of debt and their disposable income

5. Deloitte consumer confidence about job security, job opportunities
and career progression
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
201720162015201420132012
Your job security
Source: Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
Your job opportunities/career progression
Individual measures in focus
The UK is experiencing record levels
of unemployment and confidence
in job security is growing, but why
are consumers losing confidence in
their potential job opportunities and
career progression?

6. UK consumer sentiment about personal situation
Net % of consumers who said their level of confidence has improved in the past three months
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
Your job
opportunities
/career
progression
Your house
hold disposable
income
Your general
health and
wellbeing
Your level
of debt
Your job
security
Q4 2012
Source: Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017
-12%
-6%
-7%
-6%
-4%
-3%
-12%
-10%
-4%
-4%
-3%
-3%
-15%
-12%
-16%
-17%
-16%
-15%
-33%
-27%
-18%
-11%
-14%
-17%
-13%
-8%
-6%
-5%
-2%
-3%
A YoY view of individual
measures tells a different story
Consumers are more confident
about their general health and
wellbeing compared to Q4 2016,
but they have suffered a -3% point
fall in confidence in their disposable
income over the last year

7. Average earnings including bonuses
Growth in average wages vs CPI Inflation
% change year-on-year
UK inflation (CPI)
Source: Thomson Reuters DataStream
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2017201620152014201320122011201020092008
Consumers felt a squeeze
in 2017 as average earnings
growth ran lower than inflation
After the first rate rise in a decade,
there are signs that inflationary
pressures will ease in 2018, but
in Q4 the gap between inflation
and wage growth continued to
negatively impact consumers

8. Food & Non-alcoholic beverages
Housing, Water & Fuels
Furn, HH equip & Repair of the house
Recreation & Culture
Miscellaneous goods & Services
Clothing & Footwear
Communication
Health
Alcoholic beverages, Tobacco & Narcotics
Hotels, Cafes & Restaurants
Transport
Education
Total inflation
Inflation
% change year-on-year
Source: ONS
2.8
3.1
1.0
0.8
4.3
2.8
0.9
2.7
1.7
1.0
3.7
3.8
2.4
3.2
0.6
3.2
0.4
2.3
1.2
3.1
2.4
5.6
-1.1
3.9
1.6
3.0
15/12/16 15/12/17
Inflation has seen prices rise
significantly compared to
last year
Food and Drink as a category saw
year-on-year inflation of 3.9% in
December forcing consumers to be
more careful with their spending

9. Retail sales (excl. fuel SA)
% change in volume and value year-on-year
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
20172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
Source: Thomson Reuters
Value Volume
Retail sales disappointed in Q4
Growth figures were lower than
expected and the amount of
promotional activity during the
festive period calls into question the
profitability of this period to retailers

10. Essentials vs discretionary spending
Net % UK consumers spending more by category
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
201720162015201420132012
Essentials Discretionary
Consumers reported spending
more on both essential and
discretionary goods
The quarter on quarter growth was
driven by inflation and the Black
Friday/Christmas shopping periods.
YoY results show a different story,
with discretionary spend down vs
Q4 2016

11. Category spending in the last three months
Net % UK consumers spending more by category
Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Going out
Furniture & homeware
Restaurants & hotels
Major household appliances
Holidays
Electrical equipment
Clothing & footwear
Alcoholic beverages & tobacco
Landline/mobile phone, internet
& cable/TV subscriptions
Housing
Transport
Utility bills
Grocery shopping for food &
non-alcoholic beverages
Consumers suffered from
increased prices in 2017
Spend on food and drink, and utility
bills went up significantly compared
to last year. Going out and other
discretionary categories have
suffered as consumers prioritise
their spend elsewhere

12. Category spending over the next three months
Net % UK consumers spending more by category
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4Q2Q4
Big-ticket itemsEssentials
Deloitte Consumer Tracker Q4 2017
Small-ticket items
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
However, there is some
optimism about spending over
the next 3 months
With Black Friday and Christmas
falling in Q4, consumers are
naturally expecting to spend less
in the next 3 months. However,
spending intentions for the next
3 months are higher at this point
than in previous years

13. Summary
Consumers continue to show resilience. Consumer confidence is flat compared to Q3 2017 and the UK economy
is facing a number of headwinds, but there are reasons to be optimistic about 2018
• 2017 was a tough year for consumers with rising
inflation, low wage growth and concerns about debt
• A difficult 2017 culminated in disappointing retail
sales in December
• Brexit uncertainty remains and the UK economy
continues to struggle when compared with the
growing Global economy
However…
• Consumer confidence is flat compared to the
previous quarter – the first time since our survey
began that confidence did not decline in Q4
• Inflation fell in December for the first time in
6 months and this trend looks set to continue
• Consumers are beginning to show more confidence
in their disposable income and about their ability to
service their levels of debt
• Real-wage growth is expected to rise in 2018,
providing a boost to the consumer economy in the
form of increased confidence and spending power

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person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication.
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About this research
The Deloitte Consumer Tracker is based on a consumer survey carried out by independent
market research agency, YouGov, on our behalf. This survey was conducted online with a
nationally representative sample of over 3,000 UK adults aged 18+ between 05 January and
10 January 2018.