Singular_SKAN4_Guide_2023.pdf

SKAN 4
Strategy
How to Transition
from SKAN 3
ESSENTIAL GUIDE 2023
4

03 SKAN 4 Quick Summary:
Changes from SKAN 3
14 Preparation
Getting Ready for the SKAN 3
to SKAN 4 Transition
21 Implementation
Building your SKAN 4
Transition Strategy
27 Operation
What to Expect in your
Singular SKAN Dashboard
30 Get help
Contents
Written by:
John Koetsier
Senior Contributor @ Forbes
© Singular 2023

SKAN 4
Summary
SKAN expert? Didn’t take time off at
Christmas so no need to refresh your
brain? Still totally up on everything
SKAN 4?
Great: skip this section and move on
to the next. Otherwise, skim or read as
needed for a refresher.
Changes from SKAN 3

4
SKAN 4 is here and it is starting
to get the first glimmers
of actual adoption. That
means we’re starting to see
a few SKAN 4 postbacks pop
up. And that means it’s time
to build your SKAN 4 strategy
to take advantage of Apple’s
updated mobile attribution
framework.
Spoiler alert: it’s not easy.
Plus, the transition from SKAN 3 to SKAN 4
has some serious minefields to be aware of
and prepared for.
What you’ll find here, however, is a concise
summary of the changes in SKAN 4 and
an overview of how to approach each of
the major ones. In addition, I’ll add some
details on what you can expect in your SKAN
reporting from Singular, including during
those awkward weeks — or months (!!) — while
you’re transitioning from SKAN 3 to SKAN 4.
SKAN 4 strategy How to Transition from SKAN 3
4

5
Goodbye SKAN 3’s privacy thresholds.
Hello crowd anonymity. At the same time,
goodbye campaign ID, hello Source
identifier.
SKAN 4 Crowd Anonymity
CROWD ANONYMITY
Number of installs FEW MORE MOST
Source Identifier
This encodes the network
dimensions that are known about
an install — campaign, adset,
country, placement, etc
12 123 1234
Conversion Values
This encodes the past install
activity of a user — level complete,
revenue, add to cart, etc
Null 3
Values
Coarse
64
Values
Fine
SKAN 4 Major Update 1
Crowd
anonymity
and source
identifier
Crowd Anonymity
and Source Identifier
SKAN 4
5739
5739
5739
5739
Crowd anonymity determines how much
data you get from SKAdNetwork. This is
simple in concept but complicated in detail.
The simple part: more installs per campaign
equals higher crowd anonymity which will
return more data. If you get only a few installs
per campaign, you’ll only get minimal data.
A large number of installs per campaign —
only Apple knows how many, and the
parameters could change over time —
gets you the most data.
CAMPAIGN
LOCATION
PLACEMENT
CAMPAIGN
CAMPAIGN
LOCATION
CAMPAIGN
LOCATION
PLACEMENT
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW

6
Many installs per campaign?
You’ll get 4 digits of Source Identifier
information in your first SKAN 4 postback:
• Use them to gather data on campaign ID,
ad set, geotargeting, ad placement, or
other info
• This helps you optimize campaigns and
understand the value of results
You’ll also get 64 potential values of post-
install conversion data in your first SKAN 4
postback, which you can use to understand
engagement, activity, and revenue from your
new app users.
Few installs per campaign?
You’ll get less data in your Source Identifier:
• Perhaps only 2 digits, similar but not
identical to SKAN 3
You’ll get less data in your conversion values:
• Coarse conversion value postbacks only
have 3 potential values (whichever 3 you
choose)
More details on this in the next section,
which details each of the 3 different
postbacks you can get from SKAN 4,
when you get them, and what data
payload they can carry.
Digits of Source
Identifier
Potential Values of post-install
conversion data
4
64

7
SKAN 3 only had 1 single lonely little
postback, making mobile marketers
struggle to understand the value of their ad
campaigns.
SKAN 4 offers 3 postbacks spread out over
time, providing more insight and more value...
at a pretty significant cost in complexity.
Postback 1
Is the most data-rich postback, as you can
see above, and it can be sent the quickest:
within 2 days
Postbacks 2 and 3
Postbacks 2 and 3 are very simple: each only
has 1 of 3 possible values, and they will be set
over longer periods of time
• Postback 2: 3-7 days
• Postback 3: 8-35 days
Random delivery delays
Actual delivery of postbacks will be
impacted by a random timer. More on
this later...
POSTBACK 1
POSTBACK 2
POSTBACK 3
SKAN 4 Postbacks
Multiple
postbacks 0–2 DAYS
3–7 DAYS
8–25 DAYS
64
3
3
MAX
VALUES
MAX
VALUES
MAX
VALUES
Postback
in SKAN 3
Postbacks
in SKAN 4
1 3

8
Postback 1 is the most critical postback for
2 simple reasons: it returns the quickest,
and it carries the most data. There’s a lot
of complexity in the range of values that
you can potentially get from postback 1
depending on the level of crowd anonymity
that you have achieved.
SKAN 4 Conversion Values
NULL 3 VALUES
Coarse
64 VALUES
Fine
123
Campaign
Tier 0 Tier 1 Tier 2
123
Adset
Tier 2
1234
Creative
Tier 2
1234
+ Source
App
Tier 3
SOURCE
IDENTIFIER
Tier 3 is where you want to be on postback 1.
Getting there requires that you achieve high
levels of crowd anonymity in a campaign
through a large number of installs. If you do
so, you’ll get:
Maximum data in your Source Identifier
• 4 digits of data
• Plus a source app notification: essentially,
a publisher ID telling you where the ad was
shown
Maximum data in your conversion values
• 64 possible values, which Apple calls “fine”
data
If you only achieve lower levels of crowd
anonymity you will receive less source
identifier data and less conversion data:
Tier 0 returns no data
Tier 1 returns minimal data
• Source Identifier: 2 digits only, not 4
• Conversion values: 3 possible conversion
values only, not the full 64
Tier 2 returns a good amount of data:
• Source identifier: 4 digits (but omits the
source app)
• Conversion values: 64 values of fine
conversion data

9
For postbacks 2 and 3, it’s a much simpler
world, but that simplicity comes at a cost:
less data. Postbacks 2 and 3 are always only
one of 3 values each.
Think along these lines for your second
and third postbacks:
• 0, 1, 2
• Bad, OK, Good
• Window-shopper, Buyer, Subscriber
• Or basically any values you might
want to encode to your P2 and P3
values, as long as there are only 3
Swimming in complexity already?
Freaking out? Take a deep breath. Don’t
worry. The key learning is simple: fund larger,
fewer campaigns to maximize data return
and you will (almost) always get all available
SKAN 4 data.
Also, be aware: Singular will
both enrich your data with
first-party insights from your
own app — after all, your own
analytics know when you get
an install, engagement, and
purchases — and will present
your data in a simple, user-
friendly, understandable way.
But keep in mind, there’s more.
Because we haven’t talked about delivery
times yet.

10
If every postback arrived precisely at the
end of its postback period, Apple’s efforts
at ensuring marketing measurement privacy
would fail.
The first postback, for example, can be
updated until 2 days after app install. If
marketing analytics platforms got the
postback immediately, they could simply tie
it back to new app user arrivals, and bingo:
associate a specific SKAdNetwork postback
with a specific app user.
So Apple adds random timers, which
have changed in SKAN 4:
Postback 1 random timer
24-48 hours, or 1-2 days
That means that if marketers use the full
postback update window in each case:
Postback 1 could arrive
3 to 4 days after an install
Postback 2 could be
10 to 15 days after an install
Postback 3 could be
a staggering 36 to 41 days after an
install
But yes, because this is SKAN 4, we’re not
done with the complexity yet. Because
Apple has introduced a feature that
could return SKAdNetwork postbacks
sooner. It’s called locking conversion
values .
Postback delays
and locking
conversion
values
POSTBACK 1
64MAX
VALUES
POSTBACK 2
3MAX
VALUES
POSTBACK 3
3MAX
VALUES
SKAN 4 Postbacks
24–144 HOURS
24–144 HOURS
24–48 HOURS
0–2 DAYS 3–7 DAYS 8–35 DAYS

11
If marketers and developers choose, they
can lock conversion values as soon as their
in-app analytics detect an acceptable level
of data. In other words, if someone installs
your retail app and buys an item immediately,
you could lock the conversion and prepare a
postback to be sent right away. In a game, if
they play 5 levels on day 0, you could do the
same. Don’t forget, however, each postback
still has to wait for the random delay to
expire: between 1-2 days on postback 1, and
between 1-6 days for postbacks 2 and 3.
If Apple didn’t require this, advertisers
could lock all postbacks regardless of
value at some point and then, as above,
tease out which postbacks relate to
which new app users.
This means that in a scenario where you get
great engagement and activity basically imme-
diately and you lock the postback, you could
achieve the following postback arrival periods:
Postback 1 could arrive.........25 to 49 hours
after install
Postback 2 could arrive........4 to 5 days
after install
Postback 3 could arrive........8 to 14 days
after an install
Have you spotted the core challenge here?
There’s a huge diversity between earliest
possible and latest possible postback
delivery times... which is poison for being
able to measure and evaluate cohorts of
new users. Essentially, marketers could see
a potential diversity between earliest and
latest possible postback delivery of:
Postback 1.................................up to 4 days
Postback 2.................................from 3 to 13 days
Postback 3................................from 8 to 41 days
Remember this delta.
That potential diversity
in postback delivery dates
will become significant
for how you approach your
SKAN 4 strategy, as you’ll
see later in the section
on making the transition
from SKAN 3 to SKAN 4.
Quick hint: it makes cohort
measurement MUCH harder.

12
It’s not universal across all browsers — only
works in mobile Safari — and it’s not terribly
comprehensive yet, but SKAN 4 does
enable web to app measurement via the
SKAdNetwork for Web Ads API.
The benefit for marketers is
clear: web ads can be cheaper
than in-app ads, and web
onboarding experiences can
be richer, more immersive,
and more engaging than a
standard app listing page in
the App Store.
There are a bunch of steps to make it
happen: the entity serving the SKAdNetwork-
attributable link needs to be registered as
an ad network with Apple, the link needs
to be configured properly, and there must
be an endpoint to provide a signed web
ad impression, but there are some strong
possibilities here in both web-to-app user
acquisition.
For owned platforms such as your
own website or landing page, you can
simply use Singular deep links for full
measurement and analytics capability.
Web to app
support

13
13
Example:
1. You run a subscription app
2. Some users sign up and provide
long-term revenue
3. Some users sign up but cancel their
subscriptions after the trial period
4. If you can find differences between
those groups (and you might have
multiple subgroups within each)
you can include that data in your
SKAN 4 postbacks
5. That data can help you value
cohorts, estimate LTV, and optimize
ad budget allocation
Finally: bear in mind that in SKAN 4, unlike
SKAN 3, conversion values can go up AND
down.
In SKAN 3, if you were updating a conversion
value before the postback timer period clock
ran up, it could only go up. Now in SKAN 4,
you can also decrement conversion values.
This seems minor, but it’s a big deal for 2
reasons:
• It’s a complete mind-shift from SKAN 3
• It enables much more flexibility around the
value of newly acquired users
Every app has flows that successful (ROI-
returning) app users follow. And every app
has flows that unprofitable users follow.
The challenge in SKAN 3 is that sometimes
the first few stages of user engagement and
activity can look very similar for both groups.
If that’s the case for you, in SKAN 4 you
can decrease conversion values during the
postback timer periods and supply yourself
with valuable data for decision-making.
Conversion
value decreases
Stay tuned as Singular adds
capability for this.

Preparation
OK. You’ve either read or skimmed
through 1,800 words of how SKAN 4
works, or you skipped down here
right away.
What do you need to do to prepare for
the transition from SKAN 3 to SKAN 4?
We’ve put together a detailed SKAN 4
readiness checklist which you can
check out. But in short, here’s what you
need to do.
Getting ready for the SKAN 3 to
SKAN 4 transition

15
Sure, it’s obvious, but it also requires
communication, preparation, and action on
the part of your product team: schedule an
update to the Singular SDK in your app.
As of November
2022, the Singular
SDK has been
SKAN 4 ready
Transition Prep 1
Update the
Singular SDK
in your app
It’s SKAN 3 compatible, so there’s no worry
or risk of damage to existing SKAdNetwork
implementations or attributions on legacy
campaigns.

16
Those are very rare at the moment, but will
start becoming more common in Q2 of 2023.
At that point, if you haven’t set up a SKAN 4
model in your Singular dashboard, you’re
going to be missing some data. In particular,
you wouldn’t get any data for coarse
conversion values: there’s no model prepared
to receive that data.
So have the conversation.
Another reason to chat:
If you’re ready to go, willing to make the
transition, and eagerly anticipating new
data from SKAN 4 but only half of your
ad partners are ready, that’s a problem.
In that scenario, you’ll need to make
some decisions about either budget
allocation — spend only with SKAN 4
ready partners — or timing of your SKAN 3
to SKAN 4 transition.
Transition Prep 2
Talk to your
acquisition and
monetization
partners
Find out where they are in their SKAN 4
transition plans. If they’re already moving
forward now, you need to catch up.
Early in the SKAN 4 release process, we
assumed the following was necessary to get
SKAN 4 postbacks:
iOS 16.1 device (and up)
Ad network encodes
SKAN 4 click
MMP updates SKAN 4
conversion values
However, we now know that’s NOT the case.
All that is actually needed is 2 factors:
iOS 16.1 device (and up)
Ad network encodes
SKAN 4 click

17
If you currently run ads on the web or are
now considering it thanks to SKAN 4, chat
with those ad partners as well.
Get details on their timetables and anything
you might need to do to integrate or work
together.
Transition Prep 3
Talk to your
web partners

18
Part of the reason you want data from
SKAdNetwork is to know what’s working.
Part of the reason ad networks need data
from SKAdNetwork is essentially for the
same reason: so that they can optimize
campaign targeting, delivery, and volume
in near real-time to deliver the best results
for marketers.
Transition Prep 4
Share your
source identifier
hierarchies
Share what you’ve
encoded into the
SKAN 4 source
identifier digits, so
they know when
they’ve succeeded,
know when they’ve
failed, and can act
appropriately in
each circumstance.

19
Transition Prep 5
Plan your coarse
conversion value
strategy
In some cases, due to low install volume, all
you’ll get for postback 1 is a coarse conversion
value. And for postbacks 2 and 3, that’s all
it’s possible to get. Decide how to use coarse
conversion values and what events or revenue
amounts to encode to each of the 3 coarse
values: low, medium, high:
Here’s an example with a mixed event/
revenue model:
SKAN 4 Coarse Conversion Value
REVENUE GENERATED
BETWEEN DAY 2 AND DAY 7
Low $0–20
Medium $20–40
High > $40
REVENUE GENERATED
BETWEEN DAY 3 AND DAY 35
Low $0–40
Medium $40–100
High > $100
Suggestion: align your coarse conversion
value strategy with your fine conversion value
strategy, so that whatever data you get
back — whether it was from fine or coarse — is
coherent and actionable. A coherent strategy
between the two possible conversion
payloads will ensure that while coarse results
will of course be less specific than fine results,
they are at least comparable and speaking
the same language.
With a simpler revenue-only model, decide
which revenue ranges in your fine conversion
values should count as “low” in your coarse
conversion values, and do the same for both
“medium” and “high.”
Event Value Fine Conversion
Values
Coarse Conversion
Values
APP OPEN 0 Low
TUTORIAL
COMPLETE 1 Low
LEVEL UP 2 Low
$1–2 3 Medium
$2–3 4 Medium
$3–4 5 Medium
$4–5 6 Medium
$5–6 7 Medium
... ... ...
$62–63 62 High
$63–INF 63 High

20
Transition Prep 6
Build a
framework to
evaluate users
at each of the 3
postback stages
The good news is that Singular will enhance
reporting at each stage with SKAN
Advanced Analytics, modeling for missing
data due to insufficient crowd anonymity,
and enriching cohort reporting for revenue
and ROI at each stage.
Even better:
you’ll get
confidence
intervals so you
know how much
you can trust
the modeled
data: critical if
you’re making
significant
budgeting
decisions.
See more in the “What to expect
in your Singular SKAN dashboard”
section below.

Implementation
Finally. You’ve learned, you’re
prepared, and you’re ready to begin
making the transition.
Wait just a moment. You may have
all the technical details down pat,
but there are a few strategic questions
to answer before you flip the switch.
Building Your SKAN 4
Transition Strategy

22
Decide what data you need from each of the
4 possible postbacks you’ll be getting:
Postback 1
• Either fine
• Or coarse
Postback 2
Postback 3
As I stated above, postback 1 fine and
coarse conversion values should be aligned
so that your post-install conversion data is
compatible and makes sense. Postbacks 2
and 3 should be deeper-funnel events that
take place between D2-D35 or higher-value
conversions that will provide the most critical
possible insight about the value of each
cohort.
Possible models include:
Revenue
Conversion events
Engagement
Funnel
Mixed models
• Conversion Events and Revenue
• Engagement and Revenue
• Funnel and Revenue
Custom events/revenue model
Strategic Decision 1
Building your
conversion
value models
Bear in mind that most mobile experts don’t
get this right immediately, so don’t let the
desire for perfection shackle you. Do what
seems right, and you’ll be able to update it
later. (See model migration on page 23)
Singular already offers optimized SKAN
conversion model recommendations
in many situations.
This feature literally ranks SKAN conversion
models for effectiveness, analyzing your
app, your postbacks, and your goals, and
suggests the optimal conversion strategy.
With always-on SKAN conversion model
optimization checking in the background,
you’ll get notified if there are potentially more
accurate models to try. This is available for
revenue conversion models now, and will
support additional models soon.

23
Model migration has historically been
extremely challenging in SKAdNetwork.
The problem is that when you migrate
to a new model, you suffer from data
gaps as the old model ages out and
the new one phases in.
In SKAN 4, that’s a significantly more
extreme challenge due to the very long
possible postback time periods, plus
random delays. You could literally be
waiting for a month and a half to have
entirely present and clean data for the
new model.
Be willing to
adapt, because
Singular gives
you free model
flexibility
The good news is that with
Singular’s SKAN Advanced
Analytics, you can migrate
seamlessly and quickly, getting
accurately modeled data on
the same day you transition.
Schedule time to chat for more details.

24
Remember what we said way back in the
SKAN 4 major update 3 section about
postback timing and conversion locking?
There is a massive range between the
earliest to latest delivery times in SKAN 4.
And that massive diversity is poison to
your ability to generate accurate modeled
cohorts. After all, accuracy is key.
As we calculated in that section, SKAN 4
postbacks from the same campaign
and from the same day could be separated
by as much as:
Postback 1.................................up to 4 days
Postback 2.................................from 3 to 13 days
Postback 3................................from 8 to 41 days
That’s why Singular’s recommendation right
now is NOT to use conversion locking at all.
Your app is unique, your needs are unique,
so your mileage may vary, of course, but in
general, the cost of getting early conversions
is extremely high.
To use conversion
locking or not
The challenge is that you have no idea on
what day the conversion was locked, which
creates a lot of uncertainty around the
estimated install date. The result of that is
cohorts are much harder to accurately model
and your understanding of campaign value
suffers. Sticking with the standard conversion
windows for each of the postback periods
buys you the certainty that each conversion
was locked at the same time. Yes, there are
still random timer delays, but 1 unknown is
better than 2.
What might cause this advice to change:
At this point (January
2023) most of the major
ad networks and platforms
are not certain exactly
how they want to handle
SKAN 4 and achieve
campaign optimization.
As their thinking develops,
this advice may change
as well.

25
As I mentioned earlier, you can be getting
SKAN 4 postbacks even before setting up
your SKAN 4 models in your Singular MMP
dashboard. Doing so will result in missing
data, so you start developing your new
conversion model strategies now to make
sure you’ll be ready to go in mid Q1 2023.
The good news: a SKAN 3 click
from an ad network that hasn’t
yet encoded SKAN 4 clicks or
a pre-iOS 16.1 device will be
handled properly by Singular.
Strategic decision 4
Choosing when
to set up your
SKAN 4 models
in Singular
The challenge:
If you start getting SKAN 4 postbacks before
you configure a SKAN 4 model, you’ll start
seeing SKAN 4 data. However, you won’t yet
get anything reported for coarse conversion
values, because they haven’t yet been
created and encoded into a model. You
will see 4-digital source identifiers, if your
campaigns achieve high levels of crowd
anonymity.
Another challenge:
Transitioning
Singular has created “transition mode”
for the inevitable period in which you’ll be
getting both SKAN 3 and SKAN 4 postbacks.
In transition mode 1, you can start getting
SKAN 4 postbacks, but because you don’t
have a SKAN 4 model set up, you won’t get
coarse values or postback 2 or 3. In transition
mode 2, you will have set up a SKAN 4 model,
and both SKAN 3 and SKAN 4 will work.
However, while in transition mode 2, SKAN 4
conversions for the first postback period
will be limited to 24 hours using conversion
locking, so that all your data (SKAN 3 and
SKAN 4) is equivalent and makes sense.

26
This is operable via a toggle mode, so
you can turn transition mode — and which
version of transition mode — on or off as
you choose.
The key decision you’ll have to make upon
chatting with your ad partners is deciding
when you’ll only accept SKAN 4 data and
therefore will not invest in any subsequent
SKAN 3-only campaigns. For example, if
you use 10 user acquisition ad networks
but only 5 are fully updated for SKAN 4,
you might choose to run in transition
mode. If, on the other hand, 8 are fully
updated for SKAN 4 and only 2 are not,
you might decide to go full steam ahead
on SKAN 4 and pause campaigns with the
laggard ad networks until they complete
their SKAdNetwork 4.0 build-out and
configuration.
Talk to your Singular
representative about the right
time to make all of this live.

Operation
Assuming you’ve worked through all
of the above, prepared, strategized,
and transitioned, you should end
up in a happier place than you were
with SKAdNetwork 3.0.
Even if you used SKAN Advanced
Analytics to achieve close to 90%
accurate D7 revenue.
What to expect in your Singular
SKAN dashboard

28
This campaign view will be aligned to the
conversion models that you’ve set up for your
SKAN 4 reporting, and will show what each
campaign ID has achieved. That will include
D1, D7, and D35 revenue, which is now more
accurate than under SKAN 3 thanks to the
additional data from SKAN 4.
With more data, you’ll also be able to set
up SKAN 4 to provide deeper granularity for
geo-based reporting:
For SKAN 4, Singular will
display a coherent view of the
data from all the postbacks
that you are getting, providing
a single number for revenue,
installs, and events for each
campaign.
That’s thanks to a modeling layer which
takes in all postbacks, including those with
null conversion values, coarse conversion
values (low, medium, high, or whatever
you’ve chosen), and detailed fine conversion
values. Singular’s technology also takes
into account activity, engagement, and
purchases in your own first-party data from
your app, and then provides a modeled
view of the data.
SKAN 4 Modeling Layer
Campaign Installs $ Revenue Reached
Level 3
Reached
Level 4
123 20 12.4 4.3 5.7
SKAN 4 Geo Report
Network Country SKAN installs
A United States 1,543
A United Kingdom 344
A South Korea 4,045
B Australia 823
B United States 9,043
C Germany 5,324

29
All of which is possible because Singular’s
SKAdNetwork solution enriches campaign
names, decodes conversion values, models
missing data, and provides extremely
accurate data estimates.
All of which appears alongside your cost and
percentage of installs that you’ve received
conversion values for.
SKAN 4 Modeling Layer
With modeled data from each potential
postback and your own in-app data, you’ll
also be able to see cohort revenue:
Campaigns Installs $ d1 Revenue $ d7 Revenue $ d35 Revenue
123 20 $12.4 $38.30 $85.10
P1 P3
P2 User Level
MMP Data

Get help
ROI BY APP
CTR BY APP (PER OS)
INSTALLS
COST BY APP
CLICKS BY APP
REQUEST A DEMO
Schedule some time with
a Singular expert to walk through
how we can help with your
SKAN 3 to SKAN 4 transition.
Singular’s SKAN Advanced Analytics was
first to market with modeled metrics, and
estimated SKAN cohorts which provides crucial
comprehensive performance insights. With
increased data signals from SKAN 4’s changes,
intelligent conversion model support to put a
stop to data loss, and optimized conversion
model recommendations, you’ll be running high-
performance, privacy-safe campaigns at scale
in iOS in no time.
Get in touch today, and we’ll help you every
step of the way.

Singular_SKAN4_Guide_2023.pdf

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