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Polling the 2014 Election: A Comparison of the ABC/Post Poll and the NEP Exit Poll
- 1. Polling the 2014 Election: A Comparison of the ABC/Post Poll and the NEP Exit Poll Dan Merkle ABC News Presented at the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Hollywood, FL, May 14-17. 1
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- 5. ABC/Post Phone Poll NEP Exit Poll Conducted by: Langer Research Assoc. Edison Research Mode: Telephone (landline and cell) Self-administered at polling place and phone poll of early voters Population: Likely voters Actual voters Demographic Weighting: Census: Age, Race, Gender, Nonresponse adjustment for Age, and Education Race, Gender Weighted to Actual Vote? No Yes Methodological Comparison: ABC/Post Phone Poll and NEP Exit Poll 5
- 6. 2014 House Vote Results: ABC/Post Phone Poll Vs. NEP Exit Poll ■ Republican Vote % ■ Democratic Vote % 50% 52% 44% 46% ABC/Post Phone Poll NEP Exit Poll
- 7. 30% 29% 24% 17% 44% 32% 23% 17% 34% 13% 20% 29% 31% 20% 36% 34% 30% 19% 39% 12% HS or less Some college College degree Post-grad Under $50,000 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 or more White Catholics White Protestants No Religion Size of Group: Demographics ■ ABC/Post Phone Poll ■ NEP Exit Poll 47% 53% 76% 10% 8% 10% 11% 18% 32% 28% 49% 51% 75% 12% 8% 13% 13% 19% 33% 22% Men Women White Black Hispanic 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
- 8. 33% 30% 31% 18% 39% 40% 42% 56% 16% 31% 52% 35% 36% 28% 23% 40% 37% 44% 55% 19% 33% 45% Democrat Republican Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Obama Approve Obama Disapprove Support for Obama Opposition to Obama Not a factor Reason for House Vote: National Economy: Things in this Country: U.S. Economic System: 31% 31% 37% 27% 73% 26% 70% 67% 27% 32% 32% 34% 29% 70% 31% 65% 63% 32% Getting better Getting worse Staying the same Excellent/good Not so good/Poor Right direction Wrong track Favors the wealthy Is fair to most Americans Nation’s Economy:National Economy:National Economy: Size of Group: Political Opinion and Economy ■ ABC/Post Phone Poll ■ NEP Exit Poll
- 9. 47% 39% 43% 50% 48% 41% 43% 36% 26% 60% 46% 44% 44% 53% 54% 44% 41% 38% 26% 69% HS or less Some college College degree Post-grad Under $50,000 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 or more White Catholics White Protestants No Religion Democratic House Vote by Demographic Groups ■ ABC/Post Phone Poll ■ NEP Exit Poll 39% 49% 35% 91% 61% 43% 46% 47% 45% 42% 41% 51% 38% 89% 62% 54% 51% 44% 46% 41% Men Women White Black Hispanic 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+
- 10. 92% 3% 37% 88% 52% 17% 85% 13% 90% 7% 53% 92% 5% 42% 87% 53% 13% 87% 15% 93% 5% 55% Democrat Republican Independent Liberal Moderate Conservative Obama Approve Obama Disapprove Support for Obama Opposition to Obama Not a factor Reason for House Vote: National Economy: Things in this Country: U.S. Economic System: 76% 18% 40% 81% 31% 83% 28% 57% 25% 75% 20% 41% 74% 33% 82% 28% 64% 17% Getting better Getting worse Staying the same Excellent/good Not so good/Poor Right direction Wrong track Favors the wealthy Is fair to most Americans National Economy: Democratic House Vote by Political Opinion and Economy ■ ABC/Post Phone Poll ■ NEP Exit Poll