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Standard & Poor’s: B/Stable
                         FitchRatings: B+/Negative
                                   g        g




The Georgian Economy
        g          y
Taking care of Business

    Lado Gurgenidze
      Prime Mi i t
      P i   Minister




                                      October 2008
Conflict timeline

                                             Minimal
                Minor                     interruptions, Withdrawal      Online           Lending
Banking                                                                                                 Business (almost)
              restrictio   Bank holiday     lending &    restrictions   banking         restrictions                      Business as usual
Sector                                                                                                       as usual
                  ns                      online banking abolished      resumed          abolished
                                            suspended


                                                                                   No interruptions in
                                                       Georgia still The pipelines
Energy        Business Precautionary stoppage of BTC,                               electricity or gas Business (almost) Business as usual
                                                      exporting the    resume
Sector        as usual      Shah-Deniz pipelines                                   supply throughout        as usual
                                                        electricity   operations
                                                                                         August


                                                                        All flights
                                        Flight      Significant                     All major ports are
                          Partial                                        resumed
Transport &   Business              interruptions/ interruptions                    operating/Georgia Business (almost) Business as usual
                       blockade of                                      other than
L gi ti
Logistics     as usual
                     l             G gi R il         in il
                                   Georgian Railway i railway                       n R il
                                                                                      Railway resumed d    as usual
                                                                                                                  l
                           Poti                                          to/from
                                   kept functioning    traffic                      normal operations
                                                                          Russia

                                                                                                       European Council;
                                                                                                                          Partial pullout of
                                                                                     Russia recognises Sarkozy – brokered
              Russian                                                  Partial p
                                                                               pull                                        Russian troops.
                                                                                                                                        p
                                                                                      South Ossetia &    agreement on
Conflict       forces      Fighting   Sarkozy six-point Illegal buffer  back by                                            Donors pledge
                                                                                         Abkhazia,       Russian troops
timeline      invade        stops        plan signed    zone created     Russian                                            US$4.5 bn of
                                                                                    condemned by the withdrawal, EU
              Georgia                                                    troops                                               economic
                                                                                        free world       observers and
                                                                                                                            recovery aid
                                                                                                          Geneva talks



               7–8            12             15             19             22              29
                                                                                                          September         October
              August        August         August         August         August          August




                                      The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                        October 2008                1
Resilience of the Georgian economy
                                                 NBG reserves                                                                 TICEX volume and GEL/US$ exchange rate
                                                                                                                                               TICEX trading volume (LHS)
                                 FX reserves                   IMF stand-by arrangement
      1,600                                                                                                                                    NBG's net purchases of GEL (LHS)
                                                                                                                                               GEL/US$ exchange rate (RHS)
      1,400                                                                                                             300                                                                    1.35

                       1,451
      1,200                                                                                                             200       1.408             218.8        1.405




                                                                                                  1,026 251
                                                                                                                                                                                   1.413       1.40



                                         1,252
                                                                                                                                                    1.413
      1,000




                                                      1,123
                                                                                                                        100




                                                                   1,090



                                                                                    1,086




                                                                                                              US$ mln
                                                                                                                                  113.6                          106.5             108.7
                                                                                                                                                                                               1.45
US mln




            800                                                                                                                    47.3
                                                                                                                          0
            600                                                                                                                                                   0.0              -97.5       1.50
                                                                                                                    -100
            400                                                                                                                                     -187.3
                                                                                                                                                     187 3
                                                                                                                    -200                                                                       1.55
            200
              0                                                                                                     -300                                                                       1.60
                     1-Aug              14-Aug     31-Aug        15-Sep            29-Sep    16-Oct                               Jul-08            Aug-08      Sep-08           Oct-08
                                                                                                                                                                                Oct-08-to date
  Source: National Bank of Georgia
                                                                                                              Source: National Bank of Georgia

                                       Fiscal revenue collection                                                   Sovereign eurobonds’ price and yield performance
                                       Tax Revenues                Customs Revenues                                                          Price (LHS)                Yield (RHS)
            500                                                                                                     100                                                                          15%
                           438.3
                                                                      403.3                                             95                                                                       14%
            400
                                   3
                               167.3




                                                                                                                                                                                                 13%
                                                                           161.9




                                                  303.6                                                                 90
 GEl mln




            300                                                                                                                                                                                  12%
                                                   116.2




                                                                                                                US$
                                                                                                                        85
            200                                                                              146.6                                                                                               11%
                                                                                                                        80
                               271.0




                                                                                                    8.9
                                                                             2.0




                                                                                                                                                                                                 10%
                                                       4
                                                   187.4




                                                                                              87.7 58
                                                                           242




            100
                                                                                                                        75                                                                       9%
               0                                                                                                        70                                                                       8%
                         Jul-08                  Aug-08               Sep-08                Oct-08
                                                                                            Oct-08-to date                     31-Jul      15-Aug    29-Aug   15-Sep      30-Sep      16-Oct
           Source: Ministry of Finance                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, National Bank of Georgia



                                                              The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                                   October 2008                       2
Consumer, Lender & Investor confidence largely intact/recovering

Aggressive IR communications campaign by the Government
Strong statements of confidence & support by the IMF, World Bank, EBRD, ADB,
US Treasury, G7 Finance Ministers, EU
Sovereign Eurobonds bid-ask quotes stable at 0.85 – 0.89 since 11 august 2008
Galt & Taggart Index declined by 38% since 1 August 2008
Real estate – circa 800 daily real estate-related transactions on average in
                                   estate related
August, compared to 1,100 daily real estate-related transactions on average in
August 2007 and 1,900 daily real estate-related transactions on average in
January – July 2008
Cars – circa 390 average daily car registrations on average in August, compared
to 620 daily car registrations on average in August 2007 and 800 daily car
registrations on average in January – July 2008
Aggregate volume of privatisation transactions in August-October 2008
amounted to US$61.1 million
Several inquires about large asset purchases by prominent investors
The one fundamental factor has not changed - the same group of people
with strong libertarian leanings pursuing the same laissez-faire economic
policies


                The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business   October 2008      3
Early statements of support and confidence in the Georgian economy
              EBRD urges rapid resolution of Georgia                                                                                             IMF Statement on the Situation in Georgia
                                                                       World Bank Statement on Georgia
              conflict (11 Aug ‘08)                                                                                                              (11 Aug ‘08)
                                                                       (11 Aug ‘08)
During recent years, Georgia has made enormous                Georgia has strong economic fundamentals, the                In particular, Georgia has followed sound macroeconomic and financial sector
progress in introducing and implementing key                  result of a committed reform program and prudent             policies, notably in the context of the IMF-supported program under the
reforms...                                                    fiscal management by the government...                       Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility…
The EBRD considers the Georgian banking sector as             The Bank will respond flexibly and speedily with             The IMF maintains a close policy dialogue with the Georgian authorities and
a whole as efficient...                                       policy advice and financing
                                                                                financing...                               we expect their strong economic policies to be continued…


                     Statement by Deputy Secretary Robert M. Kimmitt on Support for
                                                                                                                                 ADB Statement on Georgia (13 Aug ‘08)
                     Georgia’s Economy (11 Aug ‘08)
Given its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies and excellent progress in transition                   Georgia, the ADB’s newest member, has taken major strides in economic reform in recent years,
to a market economy, Georgia is well placed to weather the current crisis. Georgia's                     reflected in the substantial economic gains the country has made since 2004…
economy has been one of the strongest in the region owing to its proven record of                        It has demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks, with the adoption of a robust
                                                                                                                                                                      ,             p
reforms, and this reform effort deserves continued international support.                                macroeconomic policy framework, reinforced with a coherent set of structural reforms…

                                                                    Statement by G-7 Finance Ministers on Georgia (20 Aug ‘08)
quot;We, the G-7, stand ready to support Georgia in order to promote the continued health of the Georgian economy, maintain confidence in Georgia's financial system and support economic
reconstruction.
quot;In this regard we welcome the commitment by Georgia and the International Monetary Fund to work together to reinforce the soundness of Georgia's economic reform program. We also call on the
Georgian authorities, other countries, the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Asian Development Bank, European Investment Bank, and European Commission to
promptly identify and support reconstruction needs and th restoration of services th t will b ild a b
       tl id tif     d       t       t ti        d    d the   t ti      f    i    that ill build base f f t
                                                                                                       for future economic g
                                                                                                                        i growth.
                                                                                                                              th
quot;Georgia has solid economic fundamentals as a result of economic reforms and sound policies, and we are committed to helping Georgia continue on this path.“


                          IMF Mission Reaches Agreement in Principle on a $750 million Stand-By Arrangement with Georgia (3 Sep ‘08)

 Following a request by the Georgian authorities for IMF financial support, an IMF mission visited Tbilisi August 23-September 3 and has reached an agreement in principle on a $750 million financial
 package in the form of an 18-month Stand-By Arrangement. The proposed arrangement requires the approval of the IMF Executive Board, which is expected to consider Georgia's request in mid-
 September.
 S t b
 The IMF Stand-By Arrangement is intended to support the economic policies put in place by the Georgian authorities to overcome the adverse economic and financial consequences of the recent
 conflict. Apart from the loss of human life and destruction of property and infrastructure, the conflict has led to a slowdown in capital inflows and a loss of international reserves.
 Georgia's strong record of reform and sound macroeconomic policies have strengthened the resilience of the economy and bode well for a solid recovery from this shock. The main objectives of the
 Stand-by Arrangement are to cover part of the expected temporary external financing gap, and to restore swiftly the confidence of markets and investors by supporting policies that will ensure
 continued macroeconomic stability and promote the recovery of private sector investment.

                                                                          White House - Condoleezza Rice statement (3 Sep ‘08)
                                                                                                                   (    p    )
  As part of America's contribution, today, I am announcing $1 billion in additional economic assistance to meet Georgia's humanitarian needs and to support its economic recovery. More than half of
  these funds will be made available in the near term and will support reconstruction efforts in Georgia, assist the Government of Georgia in leading the nation's recovery, and meet ongoing
  humanitarian needs, including the resettlement of displaced families. The balance of the funds, together with assistance from the European Union and other partners, will help the Government of
  Georgia rebuild critical infrastructure and help local communities and businesses get back on their feet. My Administration looks forward to working with Congress on elements of this package.
  Georgia has a strong economic foundation and leaders with an impressive record of reform. Our additional economic assistance will help the people of Georgia recover from the assault on their
  country, and continue to build a prosperous and competitive economy.




                                                                                                                                                                                                     4
                                                       The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                                         October 2008
Path to economic recovery
Robust regulatory response included
• Temporary waiver of mandatory reserve requirements      Joint World Bank - European Commission Press Release
                                                          International Donors Pledge - US$4.5 billion (EUR3.4 billion) in Post-Conflict Support to
• The reduction of the main policy rate from 12% to 10%   Georgia
• Establishment of two liquidity/refinancing facilities   Brussels, 22 October 2008. At a joint European Commission / World Bank Conference held
  by the NBG, with the aggregate capacity of GEL 300      today in Brussels, 38 countries and 15 international organizations pledged to provide
  mln (US$204 mln)                                        approximately US$4.5 billion (EUR3.4 billion) to Georgia. Without counting funding going to
                                                          the financial sector, pledges amounted to some US$3.7 billion, or EUR2.8 billion, to meet the
• Reduction of the liquidity ratio from 30% to 20%        urgent post-conflict and priority investment needs of Georgia over the coming three years
                                                          (2008, 2009, and 2010). This level is even higher than the basic needs outlined in the Joint
• Reduction of the FX loan risk weighting from 100% to    Needs Assessment (JNA) presented to the conference.
  75%
                                                          The meeting was opened by the President of the European Commission (EC), Jose Manuel
                                                          Barroso, the current European Union (EU) Presidency representative, French Foreign Minister
IMF US$750 million stand by arrangement,                  Bernard Kouchner, and the prospective EU Presidency representative, Czech Foreign Minister
subject to board approval                                 Karel Schwarzenberg. The meeting continued under the co-chairmenship of Shigeo Katsu,
                                                          World Bank Vice President, and B. Ferrero-Waldner, EC Commissioner.
US$1 billion economic recovery assistance
                                                          Georgia was commended for launching a swift and effective post-conflict recovery program.
package announced by the US administration                Repair of damaged infrastructure and social assistance and housing for internally displaced
                                                          people began quickly.
EU economic recovery assistance package to be
announced in early October                                The amount pledged is based on a JNA coordinated by the World Bank with the participation
                                                          of the European Commission, the United Nations, the Asian Development Bank, the
Closer trade, investment ties with the US sought
            ,                                g            International Finance Corporation, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for
                                                          Reconstruction and Development.
Engagement with EU on free trade, visa                    The total contributions pledged today are in addition to ongoing programs. These
facilitation                                              contributions are also in addition to the recent approval of a new US$750 million standby
                                                          program by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF funds are provided for international
Deeper engagement with the IFIs                           reserves and cannot be used for budget or investment purposes. However, donors welcomed
                                                          the IMF program as a solid foundation for donor contributions to be used effectively.
Donors h
D      have pledged US$4 5 b of economic
              l d d US$4.5 bn f       i
                                                          The Government of Georgia welcomed the donor pledges as vital for Georgia's speedy
recovery aid over a three-year period                     recovery. The Prime Minister of Georgia, Lado Gurgenidze, stated that quot;On behalf of the
                                                          Georgian people we thank the international community for their solidarity. With their help,
                                                          I know Georgia's recovery will be swift.quot;




                                 The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                 October 2008                           5
Post-conflict macroeconomic outlook
                                                                                                            2008
Impact of the Conflict
                                                                                 Pre-conflict                               Post-conflict
Growth (%)                                                                            9.0                                        3.5
Inflation (%)                                                                       10.0                                         8.0
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)                                                            -4.0                                        -6.0
FDI (US$ bn)                                                                          2.1                                        1.2
Current account deficit (% of GDP)                                                  -16.6                                       -20.8


                          Gross Domestic Product                                                    External sector analysis
                                                                                                 Current account balance (as % of GDP)
               Nominal GDP (LHS)               Real GDP growth rate (RHS)                        Foreign direct investments (as % of GDP)
         16                                                             14%                      Export of goods and services (as % of GDP)
                               12.4%                                                             Import of goods and services (as % of GDP)
         14                                                                   70%
                                                                        12%              56.8%             57.8%
                                                             14.0             60%                                         53.5%          52.7%
         12                                     13.3
                 9.4%                                                   10%   50%
US$ bn




         10                                                                   40%                         31.7%
                                                                                          33.1%                                          29.2%
                                10.2                                    8%                                                27.6%
                                                                              30%
         8                                                                                                 20%
                                                                              20%
                  7.8                                                   6%                14%                              10%
         6                                                                    10%                                                         8%
                                                3.5%         4.0%
                                                                        4%     0%
         4
                                                                              -10%
         2                                                              2%
                                                                              -20%        -15%
                                                                                                           -19%            21%
                                                                                                                          -21%            -19%
                                                                                                                                           19%
                                                                              -30%
         0                                                              0%
                                                                                         2006A            2007A           2008F          2009F
                 2006A          2007A          2008F        2009F
         Source: International Monetary Fund                                  Source: International Monetary Fund




                                           The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                            October 2008                 6
Country overview

Population: 4.6 mln (Department of Statistics)
Capital: Tbilisi
Government type: Republic
Area: 69,700 sq km (26,911 sq miles)
State language: Georgian
Major religion: Christianity
Life expectancy: 69 years (men), 77 years (women)
(UN)
Median age: 38 years
Monetary unit: Georgian Lari (GEL)
       y           g         (   )
GEL/US$: 1.4140, GEL/EUR: 1.8200
2007 GDP: GEL17.0 bn (US$10.2 bn)
2007 GDP per capita: GEL3,868 (US$2,315)
2007 Real GDP Growth: 12.4%, versus 9.4% in 2006
and 9.6% in 2005
CPI Change: 2007 period average was 9.2% versus
9.2% in 2006 and 8.2% in 2005
Net FDI inflows: US$937.6 mln in 1H 2008,
US$2,014.8 mln in 2007 versus US$1,076 mln in 2006
and US$542 mln in 2005
Source: CIA Factbook, BBC




                            The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business   October 2008   7
Sustained liberal reforms of 2004-2008 have laid a sound
                                         foundation for long term growth
                                            Political stability and continuity                                               Prudent fiscal policy
                                        • Fresh five-year mandate for the                                        • Low, flat and decreasing taxes
                                        confirmation of the reforms after                                        • Modern public finance framework – MTEF,
                                        President Saakashvili’s first-round re-                                  Single Treasury Account , etc
                                        election (53.5%) and parliamentary                                       • Budget expenditure cap of 25% of GDP
                                        elections in 2008                                                        mandatory from 2011




                                                                                                                                                             Effective monetary policy
     Vibrant & rapidly growing financial sector                                                                                            • Move to explicit inflation targeting in 2009
• Banking sector assets/GDP at 44% at YE2007, up                                                                                           • CPI target limited to single digits
from 16% at YE2003                                                                                                                         • Parliamentary confidence vote on central bank governor
• Assets ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 52%                                                                                                             in case of four consecutive quarters of +/- 2% deviation from
                                                                                                                                                                                     /
• Loans ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 57%                                                                                                              the target
• Deposits ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 48%                                                                                                           • Period average CPI of 11.1% - 10.2% since 2006
• No state-owned banks since 1996                                                                                                          • Cumulative increase of the main policy rate by 500bps to
• No restrictions on foreign ownership of the banks,                                                                                       12% in November 2007 – July 2008, decrease to 11% in Aug.
7 of the top 10 banks foreign-controlled                                                                                                   2008 and to 10% in Sep. 2008
• NPLs at a manageable level of 2.6%,                                                 Robust Economic                                      • YTD CPI of 5.8%
predominantly collateralized lending
• BIS CAR of circa 15 8%
                    15.8%                                                              Performance &                                       • September ‘08 y-o-y period-end CPI of 10.6% - one of the
                                                                                                                                           l     t i the     i
                                                                                                                                           lowest in th region
• Loan/deposits ratio of 1.5x                                                         Sustained Growth                                     • Broad money y-o-y growth reduced to 6.3% by Sep. 2008
• (Deposits + Equity)/Assets ratio of 0.66x                                                                                                • Full currency convertibility since 1997
• Borrowed funds 30% of total assets                                                                                                       • Stable currency and managed float
• Further sector reforms




                                Positive external momentum
                        • Total public debt as % of GDP reduced                                                                                     Strong capital inflows
                        from 56% in 2003 to 23% in 2007                                  Expanding economic base                        • Net FDI 19.8% of GDP in 2007
                        External public debt as % of GDP reduced                  • Radical deregulation & liberalisation               • Total private capital inflows 23% of GDP in
                        f
                        from 38% in 2003 t 15% i 2007
                                  i       to     in                               since 2004                                            2007
                        • FX reserves increased from US$191 mln in                • Entrepreneurial boom, with over                     • Breadth of institutional investor coverage
                        2003 to US$1,446 mln in July 2008                         50,000 new business registered p.a.                   • Moderate banking and private sector
                        • Successful debut 5-year 7.5% RegS                       • Pronounced shrinkage of grey                        borrowing
                        Eurobond of US$500 mln issued in April 2008               economy & corruption since 2004                       • Net remittances 7.4% of GDP in 2007
                                                                                  • Export diversification and growth
                                                                                  (‘03-‘07 CAGR of 26%)




                                                         The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                               October 2008                           8
Key Investment Highlights
 Sustained liberal reforms in 2004-2008
 • Modernisation of the state and civil service
 • Successful supply-side fiscal experiment with low flat and decreasing taxes resulting in 356%
                                                 low,
  increase in fiscal revenue since 2004
 • Radical deregulation and liberalisation
Rapid economic growth (9.3% in Q1 2008, 12.4% in 2007, 9.4% in 2006), driven by
 • The Schumpeterian burst of entrepreneurial activity
 • Rapid credit expansion
 • Growth in domestic consumption led by the rapidly expanding middle class
 • Rehabilitation of infrastructure
 • Export growth (‘03-‘07 CAGR of 26%) and diversification
 • Steadily increasing remittances (US$775 mln in 2007 vs. US$87 mln in 2003)
 • Off-the-charts high net FDI inflows (19.8% of GDP in 2007, 13.9% of GDP in 2006, cumulative in
  1996-2007 54% of ‘07 GDP)
 High resilience to external shocks (e.g. energy & commodity prices, Russian embargo, global
financial crisis)
Fresh five-year mandate to continue implementing reform-oriented policies
Deeper engagement & economic integration prospects with the EU and US



                    The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business       October 2008          9
Radical reforms created a favourable market environment…
                                                                                                                                     Euromoney - country risk rating, Sep.
            Ease of Doing Business, 2009                                Economic Freedom Index, 2007
                                                                                                                                                    2008
           USA      3                                                      USA      5                                            Latvia        59
            UK       6                                                      UK          10                                    Bulgaria           62
       Norway         10                                                Estonia         12
     GEORGIA           15 (U f
                           (Up from 112 i 2005)
                                        in                                                                                 Kazakhstan                 69
                                                                      GEORGIA                32 (U f
                                                                                                (Up from 93 in 2005)
                                                                                                            i
                                                                                                                           Azerbaijan                  71
       Estonia           22                                              Latvia               38
    Azerbaijan              33                                         Hungary                 43
                                                                                                                                Jordan                      75
      Armenia                  44                                                                                               Turkey                       76
      Bulgaria                 46                                       France                   48
                                                                       Bulgaria                     59                     Macedonia                              80
      Romania                  45                                                                                              Ukraine                             81
        Turkey                    59                                     Itanly                      64
   Kazakhstan                                                         Romania                         68                   El Salvador                              83
                                     70
       Belarus
       B l                               85                             Turkey                          74                    Armenia                                 85
   Montenegro                              90                       Kazakhstan                          76                     Georgia                                  88 (Up from 144 in
        Serbia                              94                      Azerbaijan                                  107            Nigeria                                   90 March 2005)
         Russia                                   120                  Ukraine                                         133    Uruguay                                      94
       Ukraine                                          145              Russia                                        134     Belarus                                      95
      Source: World Bank, 2008 (Rank out of 181 countries)          Source: The Heritage Foundation                              Source: Euromoney
                                                                                                                                          Inward FDI Performance Index
         Corruption Perception Index, 2008                           Worldwide Government Indicator, 2007
                                                                                                                                                 Ranking, 2007
        Turkey                    58                             Georgia Former Soviet Union Income level peers                 Hong Kong, China        1
                                                                                                           (Percentile ranks)            Bulgaria            2
     GEORGIA                        67 (Up from 130 in 2005)                                                             45               Iceland                3
                                                              Voice and Accountability                   21
FYR Macedonia                        72                                                                             38                      Malta                    4
        Serbia                                                    Political Stability/No
                                                                                    y                     22                            Bahamas                          5
                                        85                                                                   27                            Jordan
                                                                                                                                           J d                               6
   Montenegro                           85                               Violence                                    39                Singapore                                 7
       Albania                          85                   Government Effectiveness                                        51           Estonia                                    8       (Up from 16 in 2005)
                                                                                                             26
                                                                                                                    38                   Georgia                                         9
      Armenia                                  109                                                                                      Lebanon                                              10
                                                                    Regulatory Quality                                  44
      Moldova                                  109                                                            28                          Guyana                                              11
                                                                                                                 34                      Bahrain                                                12
       Ukraine                                       134                                                         33                      Belgium                                                 13
        kh t
   Kazakhstan
   K                                                    145                 Rule of Law                  20                              Gambia
                                                                                                                                         G bi                                                      14
                                                                                                                    38
                                                                                                                                         Panama                                                     15
         Russia                                          147                                                             45             Mongolia                                                      16
                                                                             Corruption                   22
       Belarus                                           151                                                        38                 Tajikistan                                                      17
    Azerbaijan                                           158      Percentile rank indicates the percentage of countries worldwide          Cyprus                                                        18
                                                                      that rate below the selected country. Higher values indicate          Moldova                                                       19
                                                                                                                                              Egypt                                                         20
                                                                      better governance ratings
         Source: Transparency International; 180 countries ranked                                                                            Source: UNCTAD
                                                                      Source: World Bank



                                                     The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                            October 2008                                            10
…and provided the platform for high economic growth…
                                                                             GDP
 Nominal GDP (US$bn)                                                                                                     Real GDP growth, y-o-y (%)
 12                                                                                                    12.4%                                   14%
                11.1%
                11 1%
 10                                                                                                                                            12%
                                                                    9.6%           9.4%
                                                                                                                               8.5%            10%
  8
                                               5.9%                                                                                            8%
  6
                                                                                                        10.2                                   6%
  4                                                                                 7.8
                                                                     6.4
                                                                     64                                                         6.1            4%
  2                                             5.1
                 4.0                                                                                                                           2%
  0                                                                                                                                            0%
                2003                           2004                 2005           2006                 2007                  1H 2008
Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia

              Components of nominal GDP, 2007                                                            Comments
                              Agriculture,
                                                        Manufacturing,
                                                                                   Boosted by aggressive economic reforms and substantial FDI
                                  9.4%
                                                            8.4%                   inflows, Georgia’s economy continues to show strong growth
               Other, 29.2%                                                        Rapid economic growth has been driven by
                                                            Construction,
                                                            C t ti
                                                                6.7%                • A burst of entrepreneurial activity
          Education &
          Healthcare,                                                               • Growth in domestic consumption led by a new middle class
             7.4%
                                                                                    • Rehabilitation of infrastructure, and
                                                          Trade, 13.1%
           Public                                                                   • Exports
        Administration,
            12.8%                                                                  Georgia s
                                                                                   Georgia’s economic performance in 2006 and 2007 is
                     Financial
                                                             Transport &           particularly impressive, taking into consideration the
                                                           Communications,
                 Intermediation,
                                                                10.7%
                                                                                   consecutive external shocks (Russian embargo, rising
                       2.2%
                                                                                   commodity prices & subprime meltdown) and tight monetary
                     Nominal GDP = US$10,175 mln                                   policy
 Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia




                                             The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                       October 2008                    11
…that is improving living standards and providing economic
                               diversification
                          Nominal GDP per capita                                                                                      GDP per capita (PPP)
         Nominal GDP per capita (LHS)          Consumer indebtedness per capita (RHS)            US$
                                                                       2,895                    5,000
                                                                                                5 000
      3,000
      3 000                                                                       180
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         4,176
      2,500                                                  2,315                150           4,000                                                                                                    3,642
                                                                                                                                                                       3,288
      2,000                                      1,764                            120                                                    2,911
                                                                                                3,000      2,656




                                                                                        US$
US$




                                     1,484
      1,500               1,188                                                   90
                 919                                                                            2,000
      1,000
      1 000                                                                       60
                                                                                                1,000
       500                                                                        30
         0                                                                        0                    0
                2003       2004      2005        2006        2007      2008F                                2003                           2004                         2005                                2006                        2007E
      Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia , National Bank of Georgia                  Source: International Monetary Fund

                       Broad-based economic growth                                                                                    GDP per capita (PPP)
              Agriculture                              Industry                                  (US$)
              Energy                                   Construction                                        2001                        2003
                                                                                                 5,000                                                           2003                        2001                       2005                    2007
              Transport & Communications               Financial Intermediation
              Healthcare                                                                         4,000
        60%
                                                                                                 3,000
                                                                                                 2,000     4,396                       4,330                     4,264                       4,237                      4,197                   4,176
        40%
                                                                                                 1,000

        20%                                                                                            0




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Baa2/BBB+/BBB+
                                                                                                                                                                                       BBB
                                                                                                                                BBB




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   B1/BB-/BB-
                                                                                                                                                           BBB




                                                                                                                                                                                                  ia



                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ne
                                                                                                                 ia




                                                                                                                                                                        ia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ia
                                                                                                                                                an




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                NA
                                                                                                                                                                             Baa3/BBB+/B
                                                                                                                      Baa3/BBB-/B




                                                                                                                                                                                              Russi
                                                                                                            Romani




                                                                                                                                                                  Bulgari




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Georgi
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ukrain




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           B+/B/N
                                                                                                                                        Kazakhsta
                                                                                                                                                 Baa2/BBB-/B
         0%
                 2003       2004        2005          2006      2007     1H 2008
       -20%
        Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia                                           Source: International Monetary Fund




                                        The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                                                                                         October 2008                                                           12
Net FDI as % of GDP, ‘07
               Georgia

               Ukraine                 6.3%
                                               19.8%
                                                                            Strong investment inflows from strategic and...
          Kazakhstan                  5.8%
                   Poland             4.4%                                            Net FDI inflows                                                        FDI breakdown by origin
                                                               (US$ mln)             Agriculture                    Industry                                               2004-1H 2008
                   Russia             4.1%
                                                                                     BP/BTC/SCP                     Banking                Country                               US$ mln          %
               Hungary            2.8%                                               Other Sectors                  Net FDI as % of GDP    UK                                             626.1        12.3%
   Source: National Bank of                                        2,400                                                  19.8%      21%   Netherlands                                    492.5         9.7%
   Georgia, International Monetary
   Fund
                                                                   2,100                                                  2,015      18%   USA                                            439.0         8.6%
               Cumulative Net FDI, 2004-1H2008 (LHS)               1,800                                     13.9%                         Turkey                                         433.0         8.5%
                                                                                                                                     15%
               Cumulative Net FDI as % of GDP(RHS)                                                                                         UAE                                            334.3         6.6%
                                                                   1,500
         6                                                50%                                                    1,076               12%   British Virgin Islands                         281.0         5.5%
                                                                   1,200                  9.4%
                                                39%                            8.3%                  8.5%                                  Kazakhstan                                     275.7         5.4%
         5                              40%
                                                          40%                                                                        9%
                                                                     900                                                                   Cyprus
                                                                                                                                           C                                              267 0
                                                                                                                                                                                          267.0         5.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        5 2%
         4
                                                          30%        600                   483        542                            6%    Azerbaijan                                     256.4         5.0%
                                27%
US$ bn




         3                                                                     331                                                   3%    China                                          244.1         4.8%
                                                 5.1      20%
                                                                     300
                         16%                                                                                                               Subtotal                                     3,649.1        71.6%
         2                               4.1                          -                                                              0%
                   9%                                                                                                                      Other                                        1,450.3        28.4%
         1                       2.1                      10%
                   0.5    1.0                                                 2003        2004       2005        2006      2007            Total                                        5,099.3       100.0%
         0                                                0%       Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia                             Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia
               2004 2005 2006 2007               1H
                                                2008
                                                                                         Privatisation                                                      Selected strategic investors
   Source: Department of Statistics
   of Georgia                                             (US$ mln)
                     Cumulative Net FDI per capita                 500
         1,400
                                                                                                                              400
         1,200                                                     400
                                                                    00
                                                       1,195
         1,000                                                                                        297
                                                                   300                                            266
             800                                                                          228
 US$




                                              757
             600                                                   200
             400                  498
                         400                                       100        38
             200

              0                                                       0
              2003  2004    2005                       2006                  2004         2005        2006        2007     2008YTD
   Source: Department of Statistics
   of Georgia
                                                              Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia



                                                                                 The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                             October 2008               13
…portfolio investors…
   • Up to 300 institutional investors invested in Georgian debt and equities in 2004-2008


                                    EQUITY                                      DEBT


  LOCAL




EUROCLEAR
   etc
  ONLY




                              The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                  October 2008   14
…and high and growing remittances...
                                                 Net remittances                                                          Cumulative net remittances (2004 – 9m 2008)
Country     September ‘08 August '08 Growth m-o-m Growth y-o-y Jan-Sep '08 Jan-Sep '07 Growth y-o-y                       Country                      Cumulative net remittances
Russia             51,749      42,922        20.6%       -0.5%     407,276     344,004       18.4%                        Russia                                      1,437,557.2
Ukraine             5,397       3,852        40.1%    3859.6%       34,704        3,770     820.5%                        USA                                           282,116.8
Greece              5,281       3,679        43.5%     196.9%       29,651      13,524      119.2%                        Spain                                          57,830.0
USA                 5,129       5,149        -0.4%     -55.3%       44,608      93,618      -52.4%                        Greece                                         92,292.0
                                                                                                                                                                           ,
Turkey              1,573       1,902       -17.3%      38.0%       16,955      15,528         9.2%                       Turkey                                         51,160.5
Kazakhstan            929         877         5.9%       -9.3%       6,438        7,005       -8.1%                       Kazakhstan                                     21,388.0
Spain                 887       1,325       -33.1%     -58.2%       11,686      10,071       16.0%                        UK                                             25,731.1
Israel                728         652        11.7%      28.6%        3,672        2,881      27.5%                        Israel                                         23,903.0
Germany               557         530         5.1%     137.1%        2,547        1,685      51.2%                        Ukraine                                        51,306.1
Canada                390         343        13.7%      46.5%        5,561        5,370        3.6%                       Germany                                        15,182.1
Azerbaijan            353         226        56.2%
                                             56 2%     168 4%
                                                      -168.4%        2 627
                                                                     2,627          972     170.3%
                                                                                            170 3%                        Canada                                          9,561.0
                                                                                                                                                                          9 561 0
UK                    349         404       -13.6%     -58.2%        7,600        4,620      64.5%                        France                                         11,631.0
France                286         281         1.8%      11.0%        4,491       -2,015    -322.9%                        Belgium                                         3,390.9
Netherlands           109         109         0.0%      34.1%           644       261.3     146.5%                        Netherlands                                     3,107.5
Belgium                90         160       -43.8%     223.7%        1,271        1,101      15.4%                        Poland                                          1,004.6
UAE                    89          77        15.6%     100.5%           831       573.4      44.9%                        UAE                                             1,631.6
Poland                 72          55        30.9%     393.2%           306       220.6      38.7%                        Turkmenistan                                       21.7
Turkmenistan            -2          1      -300.0%     -65.5%           -42       -48.8     -13.9%                        Azerbaijan                                       -231.1
Other Countries     5,297       5,551        -4.6%      83.9%       65,324      20,488      218.8%                        Other Countries                               261,566.5
Total             79,263      68,095         16.4%        6.6%     646,150     523,629       23.4%                      Total                                        2,350,150.7
Source: Department of statistics of Georgia

                                        Net remittances                                            Cumulative (2004-9m2008) net remittances (% of total)
                Net Remittances (LHS)                   Net remittances as % of GDP (RHS)
          800                                                                               8%                  Ukraine, 2.2%
                                                               7.4%
                                                                                                         Israel, 1.0%               Other,
          600                                 5.4%                                          6%                                      13.1%
                                                                                                           UK, 1.1%
                               4.9%                                                                                                                     Russia, 61.2%
                4.1%                                                                                    Kazakhstan,
US$ mln




                                                                 755.4




          400                                                                               4%             0.9%
                                                                               646.2
  $




                                                                                                         Turkey, 2.2%
                                                420.5




          200                                                                               2%
                                315.4




                                                                                                         Greece, 3.9%
                  212.7




                                                                                                            Spain, 2.5%
            0                                                                               0%
                                                                                                             USA, 12.0%
                 2004          2005            2006             2007        9m 2008
                                                                                                 Source: Department of statistics of Georgia



                                                The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                                October 2008               15
…have comfortably financed most of the current account deficit
                                                                     Current account deficit
(US$mln)            CAD                  Total private capital inflows (TPCI)                  CAD as % of GDP                CAD + TPCI, as % of GDP
       2,500                                                                                                     2,250                                  30%
       2 000
       2,000                                                                                                                                            25%
                                                                                                                                       1,701
                                                                                                                                                        20%
       1,500                                                                                  1,076                                                     15%
       1,000                                                              623
                                                     483                                                                                                10%
           500             369                                                                                    3.3%                                  5%
                                                  2.7%                                                                                  0.3%
             0                                                                                                                                          0%
            500
           -500         -376 -0.2%               -344                     -701 -1 2%
                                                                                1.2%            1.0%
                                                                                               -1.0%                                                     5%
                                                                                                                                                        -5%
                           -9.4%                 -6.7%                                       -1,154              -1,917                                 -10%
      -1,000                                                             -10.9%                                                        -1,685
                                                                                                                                                        -15%
      -1,500                                                                                  -14.9%
                                                                                                                                                        -20%
      -2,000                                                                                                                                            -25%
                                                                                                                 -18.9%
      -2,500                                                                                                                            -27.4%          -30%
                          2003                   2004                     2005                2006               2007                 1H 2008
                  Source: National Bank of Georgia

                                                                       Exports and imports*
    (US$mln)
       7,000                                                     Imports                     Exports
                                                              CAGR(‘03-‘07): 33%         CAGR(‘03-‘07): 26%      5,895
       6,000
       5,000                                                                                 4,413
                                                                                                                                       3,748
       4,000                                                            3,319                                             3,240
       3,000                                   2,493                                                  2,568
                                                                                 2,183                                                          1,931
                       1,866                               1,644
                                                           1 644
       2,000                   1,287
       1,000
              0
                           2003                      2004                   2005                2006                2007                 1H 2008
     Source: National Bank of Georgia
     * Export & import of goods and services



                                          The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                           October 2008                 16
Liberal Trade Regime, Diversified Trade Structure
                                                           Regime

                                     Export structure* by country, 1H 2008                                             Import structure* by country, 1H 2008
   WTO member since
2000                                                             Kazakhstan,
                                                                                                                                      Armenia, 1.1%
                                                                                                                                             ,            Others, 9.3%
                                                                    1 3%
                                                                    1.3%         Other, 5.2%                           Kazakhstan,
                                                  China, 0.8%
                                                                                                                          1.4%
   Simplified customs                        Russia, 2.1%                                                                                                                       EU Countries,
regime since August                                                                                                 Turkmenistan,                                                   29.7%
                                           United Arab
2006, new customs code                    Emirates, 0.9%                                       EU Countries,
                                                                                                                        2.8%
became effective in                                                                                28.7%              China, 5.2%
2007                                   Canada, 7.9%
                                                                                                                       USA, 5.0%
                                                                                                                       USA 5 0%
                                      Ukraine, 7.6%
    No quantitative                                                                                                       United Arab
                                     Armenia, 7.4%
restrictions on trade                                                                                                    Emirates, 5.2%                                         Turkey, 13.7%

  Zero tariff on the                                                                         Turkey, 17.0%
                                                                                                                             Russia, 6.9%
majority of goods                            Azerbaijan,
                                                                                                                                               Ukraine, 10.1%            Azerbaijan,
                                               14.2%                                                                                                                        9.3%
                                                                               USA, 8.0%
                                                                               USA 8 0%
    One of the two         Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia                                         Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia
beneficiaries of the EU
GSP+ Scheme in the CIS              Export structure* by product, 1H 2008                                              Import structure* by product, 1H 2008
since 2006, granting
                                               Equipment &      Oil & Gas,                                                                  Paper, 1.5%
local companies the                                                        Pharmaceuticals,                                                                              Sugar, 1.0%
                                              Rail Cars, 3.4%      2.8%
                                                                                1.3%     Vessels &                             Plastic, 2.7%
right to export 7,200
  g        p     ,                                                                     Aircraft 0.4%
                                                                                       Aircraft, 0 4%
                                       Cement, 5.7%                                                                          Ferrous Metal
categories of goods                                                                                                                                                               Others, 41.5%
                                        Gems &                                             Sugar, 0.8%                      Products, 2.8%
duty-free                                                                                                                    Ferrous
                                        Precious
                                      Stones, 6.4%                                                                         Metals, 3.7%
   Share of EU in
                                       Beverages,                                            Others, 18.5%              Pharmaceuticals,
exports up to 29% from                  Spirits &
                                                                                                                             3.2%
17% in 2003                           Vinegar, 7.7%
                                                                                                                         Cereals, 3.2%
                                        Vehicles, 7.6%
   In November 2007
                                                                                                                                Vehicles,
Georgia entered into a                   Fertilizers,                                        Ferrous                             14.4%                                             Mechanical
free trade agreement                        7.5%                                           Metals, 28.5%                                                                          Equipment &
                                                        Coppers &                                                                  Oil & Gas,
                                                        Gold, 9.5%                                                                                                                  Electrical
with Turkey                                                                                                                          17.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                   Machinery,
                         Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia                                                                                                                  20.1%
                         * Export & import of goods only                                                                   p         f             f     g
                                                                                                                 Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia




                                                        The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                                                 October 2008                                17
Entrepreneurial activity has flourished…
              New business registrations per year                                Number of registered businesses
(Thousands)                                                        (Thousands)
 60                                                                500
                                               51
                                                         47                                                                               399
 50                                     43                         400                                                         352
 40                                                                                                               301
              29          30                                       300                                257
 30                                                                                       227
                                                                             198
                                                                   200
 20
 10                                                                100

  0                                                                  0
          2004           2005         2006    2007    YTD 2008              2003         2004        2005         2006        2007    YTD 2008
 Source: Ministry of Finance                                       Source: Ministry of Finance

      Number of registered businesses per 100 adults                                 Starting a business, 2009
                                                                                      Time (days)              Procedures (number)
                                                                       New Zealand     1
                                                                                        1
                                                                           GEORGIA        33
                                                                            Hungary        45
                                                                                 USA          66
                                                                             Turkey           66
                                                                             Estonia         5 7
                                                                        Netherlands            6 10
                                                                           Romania             6 10
                                                                                Italy          6 10
                                                                                  UK           6     13
                                                                              Latvia          5         16
                                                                         Azerbaijan            6        16
                                                                           Germany                9       18
                                                                           Armenia                9       18
                                                                         Kazakhstan              8           21
                                                                            Ukraine                10             27
                                                                              Russia             8                  29
                                                                            Bulgaria         4                                       49
 Source: World Bank - Doing Business 2008                         Source: World Bank report - Doing Business 2008



                                    The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business                           October 2008                   18
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict
The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict

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The Georgian Economy: Resilience Amid Conflict

  • 1. Standard & Poor’s: B/Stable FitchRatings: B+/Negative g g The Georgian Economy g y Taking care of Business Lado Gurgenidze Prime Mi i t P i Minister October 2008
  • 2. Conflict timeline Minimal Minor interruptions, Withdrawal Online Lending Banking Business (almost) restrictio Bank holiday lending & restrictions banking restrictions Business as usual Sector as usual ns online banking abolished resumed abolished suspended No interruptions in Georgia still The pipelines Energy Business Precautionary stoppage of BTC, electricity or gas Business (almost) Business as usual exporting the resume Sector as usual Shah-Deniz pipelines supply throughout as usual electricity operations August All flights Flight Significant All major ports are Partial resumed Transport & Business interruptions/ interruptions operating/Georgia Business (almost) Business as usual blockade of other than L gi ti Logistics as usual l G gi R il in il Georgian Railway i railway n R il Railway resumed d as usual l Poti to/from kept functioning traffic normal operations Russia European Council; Partial pullout of Russia recognises Sarkozy – brokered Russian Partial p pull Russian troops. p South Ossetia & agreement on Conflict forces Fighting Sarkozy six-point Illegal buffer back by Donors pledge Abkhazia, Russian troops timeline invade stops plan signed zone created Russian US$4.5 bn of condemned by the withdrawal, EU Georgia troops economic free world observers and recovery aid Geneva talks 7–8 12 15 19 22 29 September October August August August August August August The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 1
  • 3. Resilience of the Georgian economy NBG reserves TICEX volume and GEL/US$ exchange rate TICEX trading volume (LHS) FX reserves IMF stand-by arrangement 1,600 NBG's net purchases of GEL (LHS) GEL/US$ exchange rate (RHS) 1,400 300 1.35 1,451 1,200 200 1.408 218.8 1.405 1,026 251 1.413 1.40 1,252 1.413 1,000 1,123 100 1,090 1,086 US$ mln 113.6 106.5 108.7 1.45 US mln 800 47.3 0 600 0.0 -97.5 1.50 -100 400 -187.3 187 3 -200 1.55 200 0 -300 1.60 1-Aug 14-Aug 31-Aug 15-Sep 29-Sep 16-Oct Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Oct-08-to date Source: National Bank of Georgia Source: National Bank of Georgia Fiscal revenue collection Sovereign eurobonds’ price and yield performance Tax Revenues Customs Revenues Price (LHS) Yield (RHS) 500 100 15% 438.3 403.3 95 14% 400 3 167.3 13% 161.9 303.6 90 GEl mln 300 12% 116.2 US$ 85 200 146.6 11% 80 271.0 8.9 2.0 10% 4 187.4 87.7 58 242 100 75 9% 0 70 8% Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Oct-08-to date 31-Jul 15-Aug 29-Aug 15-Sep 30-Sep 16-Oct Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Bloomberg, National Bank of Georgia The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 2
  • 4. Consumer, Lender & Investor confidence largely intact/recovering Aggressive IR communications campaign by the Government Strong statements of confidence & support by the IMF, World Bank, EBRD, ADB, US Treasury, G7 Finance Ministers, EU Sovereign Eurobonds bid-ask quotes stable at 0.85 – 0.89 since 11 august 2008 Galt & Taggart Index declined by 38% since 1 August 2008 Real estate – circa 800 daily real estate-related transactions on average in estate related August, compared to 1,100 daily real estate-related transactions on average in August 2007 and 1,900 daily real estate-related transactions on average in January – July 2008 Cars – circa 390 average daily car registrations on average in August, compared to 620 daily car registrations on average in August 2007 and 800 daily car registrations on average in January – July 2008 Aggregate volume of privatisation transactions in August-October 2008 amounted to US$61.1 million Several inquires about large asset purchases by prominent investors The one fundamental factor has not changed - the same group of people with strong libertarian leanings pursuing the same laissez-faire economic policies The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 3
  • 5. Early statements of support and confidence in the Georgian economy EBRD urges rapid resolution of Georgia IMF Statement on the Situation in Georgia World Bank Statement on Georgia conflict (11 Aug ‘08) (11 Aug ‘08) (11 Aug ‘08) During recent years, Georgia has made enormous Georgia has strong economic fundamentals, the In particular, Georgia has followed sound macroeconomic and financial sector progress in introducing and implementing key result of a committed reform program and prudent policies, notably in the context of the IMF-supported program under the reforms... fiscal management by the government... Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility… The EBRD considers the Georgian banking sector as The Bank will respond flexibly and speedily with The IMF maintains a close policy dialogue with the Georgian authorities and a whole as efficient... policy advice and financing financing... we expect their strong economic policies to be continued… Statement by Deputy Secretary Robert M. Kimmitt on Support for ADB Statement on Georgia (13 Aug ‘08) Georgia’s Economy (11 Aug ‘08) Given its sound macroeconomic and fiscal policies and excellent progress in transition Georgia, the ADB’s newest member, has taken major strides in economic reform in recent years, to a market economy, Georgia is well placed to weather the current crisis. Georgia's reflected in the substantial economic gains the country has made since 2004… economy has been one of the strongest in the region owing to its proven record of It has demonstrated resilience in the face of external shocks, with the adoption of a robust , p reforms, and this reform effort deserves continued international support. macroeconomic policy framework, reinforced with a coherent set of structural reforms… Statement by G-7 Finance Ministers on Georgia (20 Aug ‘08) quot;We, the G-7, stand ready to support Georgia in order to promote the continued health of the Georgian economy, maintain confidence in Georgia's financial system and support economic reconstruction. quot;In this regard we welcome the commitment by Georgia and the International Monetary Fund to work together to reinforce the soundness of Georgia's economic reform program. We also call on the Georgian authorities, other countries, the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Asian Development Bank, European Investment Bank, and European Commission to promptly identify and support reconstruction needs and th restoration of services th t will b ild a b tl id tif d t t ti d d the t ti f i that ill build base f f t for future economic g i growth. th quot;Georgia has solid economic fundamentals as a result of economic reforms and sound policies, and we are committed to helping Georgia continue on this path.“ IMF Mission Reaches Agreement in Principle on a $750 million Stand-By Arrangement with Georgia (3 Sep ‘08) Following a request by the Georgian authorities for IMF financial support, an IMF mission visited Tbilisi August 23-September 3 and has reached an agreement in principle on a $750 million financial package in the form of an 18-month Stand-By Arrangement. The proposed arrangement requires the approval of the IMF Executive Board, which is expected to consider Georgia's request in mid- September. S t b The IMF Stand-By Arrangement is intended to support the economic policies put in place by the Georgian authorities to overcome the adverse economic and financial consequences of the recent conflict. Apart from the loss of human life and destruction of property and infrastructure, the conflict has led to a slowdown in capital inflows and a loss of international reserves. Georgia's strong record of reform and sound macroeconomic policies have strengthened the resilience of the economy and bode well for a solid recovery from this shock. The main objectives of the Stand-by Arrangement are to cover part of the expected temporary external financing gap, and to restore swiftly the confidence of markets and investors by supporting policies that will ensure continued macroeconomic stability and promote the recovery of private sector investment. White House - Condoleezza Rice statement (3 Sep ‘08) ( p ) As part of America's contribution, today, I am announcing $1 billion in additional economic assistance to meet Georgia's humanitarian needs and to support its economic recovery. More than half of these funds will be made available in the near term and will support reconstruction efforts in Georgia, assist the Government of Georgia in leading the nation's recovery, and meet ongoing humanitarian needs, including the resettlement of displaced families. The balance of the funds, together with assistance from the European Union and other partners, will help the Government of Georgia rebuild critical infrastructure and help local communities and businesses get back on their feet. My Administration looks forward to working with Congress on elements of this package. Georgia has a strong economic foundation and leaders with an impressive record of reform. Our additional economic assistance will help the people of Georgia recover from the assault on their country, and continue to build a prosperous and competitive economy. 4 The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008
  • 6. Path to economic recovery Robust regulatory response included • Temporary waiver of mandatory reserve requirements Joint World Bank - European Commission Press Release International Donors Pledge - US$4.5 billion (EUR3.4 billion) in Post-Conflict Support to • The reduction of the main policy rate from 12% to 10% Georgia • Establishment of two liquidity/refinancing facilities Brussels, 22 October 2008. At a joint European Commission / World Bank Conference held by the NBG, with the aggregate capacity of GEL 300 today in Brussels, 38 countries and 15 international organizations pledged to provide mln (US$204 mln) approximately US$4.5 billion (EUR3.4 billion) to Georgia. Without counting funding going to the financial sector, pledges amounted to some US$3.7 billion, or EUR2.8 billion, to meet the • Reduction of the liquidity ratio from 30% to 20% urgent post-conflict and priority investment needs of Georgia over the coming three years (2008, 2009, and 2010). This level is even higher than the basic needs outlined in the Joint • Reduction of the FX loan risk weighting from 100% to Needs Assessment (JNA) presented to the conference. 75% The meeting was opened by the President of the European Commission (EC), Jose Manuel Barroso, the current European Union (EU) Presidency representative, French Foreign Minister IMF US$750 million stand by arrangement, Bernard Kouchner, and the prospective EU Presidency representative, Czech Foreign Minister subject to board approval Karel Schwarzenberg. The meeting continued under the co-chairmenship of Shigeo Katsu, World Bank Vice President, and B. Ferrero-Waldner, EC Commissioner. US$1 billion economic recovery assistance Georgia was commended for launching a swift and effective post-conflict recovery program. package announced by the US administration Repair of damaged infrastructure and social assistance and housing for internally displaced people began quickly. EU economic recovery assistance package to be announced in early October The amount pledged is based on a JNA coordinated by the World Bank with the participation of the European Commission, the United Nations, the Asian Development Bank, the Closer trade, investment ties with the US sought , g International Finance Corporation, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Engagement with EU on free trade, visa The total contributions pledged today are in addition to ongoing programs. These facilitation contributions are also in addition to the recent approval of a new US$750 million standby program by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). IMF funds are provided for international Deeper engagement with the IFIs reserves and cannot be used for budget or investment purposes. However, donors welcomed the IMF program as a solid foundation for donor contributions to be used effectively. Donors h D have pledged US$4 5 b of economic l d d US$4.5 bn f i The Government of Georgia welcomed the donor pledges as vital for Georgia's speedy recovery aid over a three-year period recovery. The Prime Minister of Georgia, Lado Gurgenidze, stated that quot;On behalf of the Georgian people we thank the international community for their solidarity. With their help, I know Georgia's recovery will be swift.quot; The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 5
  • 7. Post-conflict macroeconomic outlook 2008 Impact of the Conflict Pre-conflict Post-conflict Growth (%) 9.0 3.5 Inflation (%) 10.0 8.0 Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.0 -6.0 FDI (US$ bn) 2.1 1.2 Current account deficit (% of GDP) -16.6 -20.8 Gross Domestic Product External sector analysis Current account balance (as % of GDP) Nominal GDP (LHS) Real GDP growth rate (RHS) Foreign direct investments (as % of GDP) 16 14% Export of goods and services (as % of GDP) 12.4% Import of goods and services (as % of GDP) 14 70% 12% 56.8% 57.8% 14.0 60% 53.5% 52.7% 12 13.3 9.4% 10% 50% US$ bn 10 40% 31.7% 33.1% 29.2% 10.2 8% 27.6% 30% 8 20% 20% 7.8 6% 14% 10% 6 10% 8% 3.5% 4.0% 4% 0% 4 -10% 2 2% -20% -15% -19% 21% -21% -19% 19% -30% 0 0% 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F 2006A 2007A 2008F 2009F Source: International Monetary Fund Source: International Monetary Fund The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 6
  • 8. Country overview Population: 4.6 mln (Department of Statistics) Capital: Tbilisi Government type: Republic Area: 69,700 sq km (26,911 sq miles) State language: Georgian Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 69 years (men), 77 years (women) (UN) Median age: 38 years Monetary unit: Georgian Lari (GEL) y g ( ) GEL/US$: 1.4140, GEL/EUR: 1.8200 2007 GDP: GEL17.0 bn (US$10.2 bn) 2007 GDP per capita: GEL3,868 (US$2,315) 2007 Real GDP Growth: 12.4%, versus 9.4% in 2006 and 9.6% in 2005 CPI Change: 2007 period average was 9.2% versus 9.2% in 2006 and 8.2% in 2005 Net FDI inflows: US$937.6 mln in 1H 2008, US$2,014.8 mln in 2007 versus US$1,076 mln in 2006 and US$542 mln in 2005 Source: CIA Factbook, BBC The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 7
  • 9. Sustained liberal reforms of 2004-2008 have laid a sound foundation for long term growth Political stability and continuity Prudent fiscal policy • Fresh five-year mandate for the • Low, flat and decreasing taxes confirmation of the reforms after • Modern public finance framework – MTEF, President Saakashvili’s first-round re- Single Treasury Account , etc election (53.5%) and parliamentary • Budget expenditure cap of 25% of GDP elections in 2008 mandatory from 2011 Effective monetary policy Vibrant & rapidly growing financial sector • Move to explicit inflation targeting in 2009 • Banking sector assets/GDP at 44% at YE2007, up • CPI target limited to single digits from 16% at YE2003 • Parliamentary confidence vote on central bank governor • Assets ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 52% in case of four consecutive quarters of +/- 2% deviation from / • Loans ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 57% the target • Deposits ‘03 – ’07 CAGR of 48% • Period average CPI of 11.1% - 10.2% since 2006 • No state-owned banks since 1996 • Cumulative increase of the main policy rate by 500bps to • No restrictions on foreign ownership of the banks, 12% in November 2007 – July 2008, decrease to 11% in Aug. 7 of the top 10 banks foreign-controlled 2008 and to 10% in Sep. 2008 • NPLs at a manageable level of 2.6%, Robust Economic • YTD CPI of 5.8% predominantly collateralized lending • BIS CAR of circa 15 8% 15.8% Performance & • September ‘08 y-o-y period-end CPI of 10.6% - one of the l t i the i lowest in th region • Loan/deposits ratio of 1.5x Sustained Growth • Broad money y-o-y growth reduced to 6.3% by Sep. 2008 • (Deposits + Equity)/Assets ratio of 0.66x • Full currency convertibility since 1997 • Borrowed funds 30% of total assets • Stable currency and managed float • Further sector reforms Positive external momentum • Total public debt as % of GDP reduced Strong capital inflows from 56% in 2003 to 23% in 2007 Expanding economic base • Net FDI 19.8% of GDP in 2007 External public debt as % of GDP reduced • Radical deregulation & liberalisation • Total private capital inflows 23% of GDP in f from 38% in 2003 t 15% i 2007 i to in since 2004 2007 • FX reserves increased from US$191 mln in • Entrepreneurial boom, with over • Breadth of institutional investor coverage 2003 to US$1,446 mln in July 2008 50,000 new business registered p.a. • Moderate banking and private sector • Successful debut 5-year 7.5% RegS • Pronounced shrinkage of grey borrowing Eurobond of US$500 mln issued in April 2008 economy & corruption since 2004 • Net remittances 7.4% of GDP in 2007 • Export diversification and growth (‘03-‘07 CAGR of 26%) The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 8
  • 10. Key Investment Highlights Sustained liberal reforms in 2004-2008 • Modernisation of the state and civil service • Successful supply-side fiscal experiment with low flat and decreasing taxes resulting in 356% low, increase in fiscal revenue since 2004 • Radical deregulation and liberalisation Rapid economic growth (9.3% in Q1 2008, 12.4% in 2007, 9.4% in 2006), driven by • The Schumpeterian burst of entrepreneurial activity • Rapid credit expansion • Growth in domestic consumption led by the rapidly expanding middle class • Rehabilitation of infrastructure • Export growth (‘03-‘07 CAGR of 26%) and diversification • Steadily increasing remittances (US$775 mln in 2007 vs. US$87 mln in 2003) • Off-the-charts high net FDI inflows (19.8% of GDP in 2007, 13.9% of GDP in 2006, cumulative in 1996-2007 54% of ‘07 GDP) High resilience to external shocks (e.g. energy & commodity prices, Russian embargo, global financial crisis) Fresh five-year mandate to continue implementing reform-oriented policies Deeper engagement & economic integration prospects with the EU and US The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 9
  • 11. Radical reforms created a favourable market environment… Euromoney - country risk rating, Sep. Ease of Doing Business, 2009 Economic Freedom Index, 2007 2008 USA 3 USA 5 Latvia 59 UK 6 UK 10 Bulgaria 62 Norway 10 Estonia 12 GEORGIA 15 (U f (Up from 112 i 2005) in Kazakhstan 69 GEORGIA 32 (U f (Up from 93 in 2005) i Azerbaijan 71 Estonia 22 Latvia 38 Azerbaijan 33 Hungary 43 Jordan 75 Armenia 44 Turkey 76 Bulgaria 46 France 48 Bulgaria 59 Macedonia 80 Romania 45 Ukraine 81 Turkey 59 Itanly 64 Kazakhstan Romania 68 El Salvador 83 70 Belarus B l 85 Turkey 74 Armenia 85 Montenegro 90 Kazakhstan 76 Georgia 88 (Up from 144 in Serbia 94 Azerbaijan 107 Nigeria 90 March 2005) Russia 120 Ukraine 133 Uruguay 94 Ukraine 145 Russia 134 Belarus 95 Source: World Bank, 2008 (Rank out of 181 countries) Source: The Heritage Foundation Source: Euromoney Inward FDI Performance Index Corruption Perception Index, 2008 Worldwide Government Indicator, 2007 Ranking, 2007 Turkey 58 Georgia Former Soviet Union Income level peers Hong Kong, China 1 (Percentile ranks) Bulgaria 2 GEORGIA 67 (Up from 130 in 2005) 45 Iceland 3 Voice and Accountability 21 FYR Macedonia 72 38 Malta 4 Serbia Political Stability/No y 22 Bahamas 5 85 27 Jordan J d 6 Montenegro 85 Violence 39 Singapore 7 Albania 85 Government Effectiveness 51 Estonia 8 (Up from 16 in 2005) 26 38 Georgia 9 Armenia 109 Lebanon 10 Regulatory Quality 44 Moldova 109 28 Guyana 11 34 Bahrain 12 Ukraine 134 33 Belgium 13 kh t Kazakhstan K 145 Rule of Law 20 Gambia G bi 14 38 Panama 15 Russia 147 45 Mongolia 16 Corruption 22 Belarus 151 38 Tajikistan 17 Azerbaijan 158 Percentile rank indicates the percentage of countries worldwide Cyprus 18 that rate below the selected country. Higher values indicate Moldova 19 Egypt 20 better governance ratings Source: Transparency International; 180 countries ranked Source: UNCTAD Source: World Bank The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 10
  • 12. …and provided the platform for high economic growth… GDP Nominal GDP (US$bn) Real GDP growth, y-o-y (%) 12 12.4% 14% 11.1% 11 1% 10 12% 9.6% 9.4% 8.5% 10% 8 5.9% 8% 6 10.2 6% 4 7.8 6.4 64 6.1 4% 2 5.1 4.0 2% 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 2008 Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Components of nominal GDP, 2007 Comments Agriculture, Manufacturing, Boosted by aggressive economic reforms and substantial FDI 9.4% 8.4% inflows, Georgia’s economy continues to show strong growth Other, 29.2% Rapid economic growth has been driven by Construction, C t ti 6.7% • A burst of entrepreneurial activity Education & Healthcare, • Growth in domestic consumption led by a new middle class 7.4% • Rehabilitation of infrastructure, and Trade, 13.1% Public • Exports Administration, 12.8% Georgia s Georgia’s economic performance in 2006 and 2007 is Financial Transport & particularly impressive, taking into consideration the Communications, Intermediation, 10.7% consecutive external shocks (Russian embargo, rising 2.2% commodity prices & subprime meltdown) and tight monetary Nominal GDP = US$10,175 mln policy Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 11
  • 13. …that is improving living standards and providing economic diversification Nominal GDP per capita GDP per capita (PPP) Nominal GDP per capita (LHS) Consumer indebtedness per capita (RHS) US$ 2,895 5,000 5 000 3,000 3 000 180 4,176 2,500 2,315 150 4,000 3,642 3,288 2,000 1,764 120 2,911 3,000 2,656 US$ US$ 1,484 1,500 1,188 90 919 2,000 1,000 1 000 60 1,000 500 30 0 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia , National Bank of Georgia Source: International Monetary Fund Broad-based economic growth GDP per capita (PPP) Agriculture Industry (US$) Energy Construction 2001 2003 5,000 2003 2001 2005 2007 Transport & Communications Financial Intermediation Healthcare 4,000 60% 3,000 2,000 4,396 4,330 4,264 4,237 4,197 4,176 40% 1,000 20% 0 Baa2/BBB+/BBB+ BBB BBB B1/BB-/BB- BBB ia ne ia ia ia an NA Baa3/BBB+/B Baa3/BBB-/B Russi Romani Bulgari Georgi Ukrain B+/B/N Kazakhsta Baa2/BBB-/B 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 2008 -20% Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: International Monetary Fund The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 12
  • 14. Net FDI as % of GDP, ‘07 Georgia Ukraine 6.3% 19.8% Strong investment inflows from strategic and... Kazakhstan 5.8% Poland 4.4% Net FDI inflows FDI breakdown by origin (US$ mln) Agriculture Industry 2004-1H 2008 Russia 4.1% BP/BTC/SCP Banking Country US$ mln % Hungary 2.8% Other Sectors Net FDI as % of GDP UK 626.1 12.3% Source: National Bank of 2,400 19.8% 21% Netherlands 492.5 9.7% Georgia, International Monetary Fund 2,100 2,015 18% USA 439.0 8.6% Cumulative Net FDI, 2004-1H2008 (LHS) 1,800 13.9% Turkey 433.0 8.5% 15% Cumulative Net FDI as % of GDP(RHS) UAE 334.3 6.6% 1,500 6 50% 1,076 12% British Virgin Islands 281.0 5.5% 1,200 9.4% 39% 8.3% 8.5% Kazakhstan 275.7 5.4% 5 40% 40% 9% 900 Cyprus C 267 0 267.0 5.2% 5 2% 4 30% 600 483 542 6% Azerbaijan 256.4 5.0% 27% US$ bn 3 331 3% China 244.1 4.8% 5.1 20% 300 16% Subtotal 3,649.1 71.6% 2 4.1 - 0% 9% Other 1,450.3 28.4% 1 2.1 10% 0.5 1.0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total 5,099.3 100.0% 0 0% Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 2008 Privatisation Selected strategic investors Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia (US$ mln) Cumulative Net FDI per capita 500 1,400 400 1,200 400 00 1,195 1,000 297 300 266 800 228 US$ 757 600 200 400 498 400 100 38 200 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008YTD Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Ministry of Economic Development of Georgia The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 13
  • 15. …portfolio investors… • Up to 300 institutional investors invested in Georgian debt and equities in 2004-2008 EQUITY DEBT LOCAL EUROCLEAR etc ONLY The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 14
  • 16. …and high and growing remittances... Net remittances Cumulative net remittances (2004 – 9m 2008) Country September ‘08 August '08 Growth m-o-m Growth y-o-y Jan-Sep '08 Jan-Sep '07 Growth y-o-y Country Cumulative net remittances Russia 51,749 42,922 20.6% -0.5% 407,276 344,004 18.4% Russia 1,437,557.2 Ukraine 5,397 3,852 40.1% 3859.6% 34,704 3,770 820.5% USA 282,116.8 Greece 5,281 3,679 43.5% 196.9% 29,651 13,524 119.2% Spain 57,830.0 USA 5,129 5,149 -0.4% -55.3% 44,608 93,618 -52.4% Greece 92,292.0 , Turkey 1,573 1,902 -17.3% 38.0% 16,955 15,528 9.2% Turkey 51,160.5 Kazakhstan 929 877 5.9% -9.3% 6,438 7,005 -8.1% Kazakhstan 21,388.0 Spain 887 1,325 -33.1% -58.2% 11,686 10,071 16.0% UK 25,731.1 Israel 728 652 11.7% 28.6% 3,672 2,881 27.5% Israel 23,903.0 Germany 557 530 5.1% 137.1% 2,547 1,685 51.2% Ukraine 51,306.1 Canada 390 343 13.7% 46.5% 5,561 5,370 3.6% Germany 15,182.1 Azerbaijan 353 226 56.2% 56 2% 168 4% -168.4% 2 627 2,627 972 170.3% 170 3% Canada 9,561.0 9 561 0 UK 349 404 -13.6% -58.2% 7,600 4,620 64.5% France 11,631.0 France 286 281 1.8% 11.0% 4,491 -2,015 -322.9% Belgium 3,390.9 Netherlands 109 109 0.0% 34.1% 644 261.3 146.5% Netherlands 3,107.5 Belgium 90 160 -43.8% 223.7% 1,271 1,101 15.4% Poland 1,004.6 UAE 89 77 15.6% 100.5% 831 573.4 44.9% UAE 1,631.6 Poland 72 55 30.9% 393.2% 306 220.6 38.7% Turkmenistan 21.7 Turkmenistan -2 1 -300.0% -65.5% -42 -48.8 -13.9% Azerbaijan -231.1 Other Countries 5,297 5,551 -4.6% 83.9% 65,324 20,488 218.8% Other Countries 261,566.5 Total 79,263 68,095 16.4% 6.6% 646,150 523,629 23.4% Total 2,350,150.7 Source: Department of statistics of Georgia Net remittances Cumulative (2004-9m2008) net remittances (% of total) Net Remittances (LHS) Net remittances as % of GDP (RHS) 800 8% Ukraine, 2.2% 7.4% Israel, 1.0% Other, 600 5.4% 6% 13.1% UK, 1.1% 4.9% Russia, 61.2% 4.1% Kazakhstan, US$ mln 755.4 400 4% 0.9% 646.2 $ Turkey, 2.2% 420.5 200 2% 315.4 Greece, 3.9% 212.7 Spain, 2.5% 0 0% USA, 12.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 9m 2008 Source: Department of statistics of Georgia The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 15
  • 17. …have comfortably financed most of the current account deficit Current account deficit (US$mln) CAD Total private capital inflows (TPCI) CAD as % of GDP CAD + TPCI, as % of GDP 2,500 2,250 30% 2 000 2,000 25% 1,701 20% 1,500 1,076 15% 1,000 623 483 10% 500 369 3.3% 5% 2.7% 0.3% 0 0% 500 -500 -376 -0.2% -344 -701 -1 2% 1.2% 1.0% -1.0% 5% -5% -9.4% -6.7% -1,154 -1,917 -10% -1,000 -10.9% -1,685 -15% -1,500 -14.9% -20% -2,000 -25% -18.9% -2,500 -27.4% -30% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 2008 Source: National Bank of Georgia Exports and imports* (US$mln) 7,000 Imports Exports CAGR(‘03-‘07): 33% CAGR(‘03-‘07): 26% 5,895 6,000 5,000 4,413 3,748 4,000 3,319 3,240 3,000 2,493 2,568 2,183 1,931 1,866 1,644 1 644 2,000 1,287 1,000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1H 2008 Source: National Bank of Georgia * Export & import of goods and services The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 16
  • 18. Liberal Trade Regime, Diversified Trade Structure Regime Export structure* by country, 1H 2008 Import structure* by country, 1H 2008 WTO member since 2000 Kazakhstan, Armenia, 1.1% , Others, 9.3% 1 3% 1.3% Other, 5.2% Kazakhstan, China, 0.8% 1.4% Simplified customs Russia, 2.1% EU Countries, regime since August Turkmenistan, 29.7% United Arab 2006, new customs code Emirates, 0.9% EU Countries, 2.8% became effective in 28.7% China, 5.2% 2007 Canada, 7.9% USA, 5.0% USA 5 0% Ukraine, 7.6% No quantitative United Arab Armenia, 7.4% restrictions on trade Emirates, 5.2% Turkey, 13.7% Zero tariff on the Turkey, 17.0% Russia, 6.9% majority of goods Azerbaijan, Ukraine, 10.1% Azerbaijan, 14.2% 9.3% USA, 8.0% USA 8 0% One of the two Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia beneficiaries of the EU GSP+ Scheme in the CIS Export structure* by product, 1H 2008 Import structure* by product, 1H 2008 since 2006, granting Equipment & Oil & Gas, Paper, 1.5% local companies the Pharmaceuticals, Sugar, 1.0% Rail Cars, 3.4% 2.8% 1.3% Vessels & Plastic, 2.7% right to export 7,200 g p , Aircraft 0.4% Aircraft, 0 4% Cement, 5.7% Ferrous Metal categories of goods Others, 41.5% Gems & Sugar, 0.8% Products, 2.8% duty-free Ferrous Precious Stones, 6.4% Metals, 3.7% Share of EU in Beverages, Others, 18.5% Pharmaceuticals, exports up to 29% from Spirits & 3.2% 17% in 2003 Vinegar, 7.7% Cereals, 3.2% Vehicles, 7.6% In November 2007 Vehicles, Georgia entered into a Fertilizers, Ferrous 14.4% Mechanical free trade agreement 7.5% Metals, 28.5% Equipment & Coppers & Oil & Gas, Gold, 9.5% Electrical with Turkey 17.6% Machinery, Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia 20.1% * Export & import of goods only p f f g Source: Department of Statistics of Georgia The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 17
  • 19. Entrepreneurial activity has flourished… New business registrations per year Number of registered businesses (Thousands) (Thousands) 60 500 51 47 399 50 43 400 352 40 301 29 30 300 257 30 227 198 200 20 10 100 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 YTD 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 YTD 2008 Source: Ministry of Finance Source: Ministry of Finance Number of registered businesses per 100 adults Starting a business, 2009 Time (days) Procedures (number) New Zealand 1 1 GEORGIA 33 Hungary 45 USA 66 Turkey 66 Estonia 5 7 Netherlands 6 10 Romania 6 10 Italy 6 10 UK 6 13 Latvia 5 16 Azerbaijan 6 16 Germany 9 18 Armenia 9 18 Kazakhstan 8 21 Ukraine 10 27 Russia 8 29 Bulgaria 4 49 Source: World Bank - Doing Business 2008 Source: World Bank report - Doing Business 2008 The Georgian Economy: Taking care of business October 2008 18