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CHENNAI
REAL
ESTATE
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
CHENNAI
RESIDENTIAL
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET
IN CONSOLIDATION
MODE
Will launches continue to spiral downward in Chennai?
How are the premium locations faring in Chennai currently?
Which is currently the healthiest residential market in South India?
NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 20% Y-O-Y;
DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES
16,832
8,015
11,377
7,318
9,102
14,020
10,424
10,212
10,343
9,091
4,208
4,354
4,407
4,528
4,532
3,900
4,100
4,300
4,500
4,700
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
INR/sqft
No.ofunits
Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
WEST CHENNAI
MOST AFFORDABLE
77% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW
INR 2.5 MN IN WEST
INR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
<2.5 mn 2.5-5 mn 5-7.5 mn 7.5-10 mn 10-20 mn 20-40 mn 80-150 mn
Central North South West
WEST CHENNAI
PERFORMS THE BEST
CLOSELY FOLLOWED
BY SOUTH
HOWEVER, NORTH CHENNAI
CONTINUES TO LANGUISH
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
AgeofInventory
QTS
Central North South West
CENTRAL
SOUTH
WEST
NORTH
PREMIUM MARKET
WITH RESIDENTIAL
UNITS OVER
INR 1.5 CRORE HIT
HARD BY SLOWDOWN
SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT LOWEST
LEVELS SINCE 2013, PRICE GROWTH
HOWEVER REMAINS STRONG526
213
151
420
138
596
398
342
375
147
10,206
11,308 11,448
13,279 13,495
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1
INR/sqft
No.ofunits
Sum of New Launch Sum of Total Absorption Max of PricesLaunches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
SLACK IN MARKET
ENGULFS PREMIUM
SEGMENT;NEARLY 2
YEARS TO OFFLOAD
UNSOLD INVENTORY
PREMIUM SEGMENT FALLS VICTIM TO
MARKET MALAISE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15
QTS
CHENNAI CITY
PREMIUM MARKET
SALES EXPECTED TO
SEE MARGINAL GROWTH
IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
LAUNCHES
(UNITS)
SALES
(UNITS)
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE PRICE
(INR/SQ FT)
H2 2014 7,318 10,343 4,528
H2 2015 E 6,439 10.420 4,596
GROWTH -12% 1% 1.5%
HOW DOES CHENNAI
STAND COMPARED TO
OTHER CITIES
LAUNCHES- CHENNAI MAINTAINS
ITS POSITION
H1 2014 H1 2015
MUMBAI 35,512 18,887
NCR 35,500 11,360
BENGALURU 35,545 21,400
PUNE 16,883 12,762
CHENNAI 11,377 9,102
AHMEDABAD 9,021 8,062
KOLKATA 8,444 8,372
HYDERABAD 7,899 5,457
ABSORPTION- CHENNAI GOES UP AT
5TH POSITION IN SALES
H1 2014
MUMBAI 31,210
NCR 28,500
BENGALURU 27,256
PUNE 14,719
AHMEDABAD 10,472
CHENNAI 10,315
HYDERABAD 7,282
KOLKATA 6,390
H1 2015
MUMBAI 28,446
BENGALURU 22,234
PUNE 15,524
NCR 14,250
CHENNAI 9,091
AHMEDABAD 7,751
HYDERABAD 7,123
KOLKATA 5,883
CHENNAI COSTLIER THAN NCR
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Rs/sqft
Mumbai
NCR
Bengaluru
Pune
Chennai
Hyderabad
Kolkata
Ahmedabad
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
CHENNAI AMONG THE BETTER
PERFORMING MARKETS IN INDIA
5
7
9
11
13
15
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Ageofunsoldinventoryinquarters
QTS
MUMBAI
PUNE
AHMEDABAD
HYDERABAD
KOLKATA
NCR
BENGALURU
CHENNAI
CHENNAI
OFFICE
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015
OFFICE MARKET
RECOVERING
VACANCY LEVEL AT A 5-YEAR LOW -
17.9% DURING JAN – JUN 2015
52.2
54.7
56.2
57.3
58.2
39.4
41.8
43.6
45.8
47.8
24.4% 23.6%
22.4%
18.9%
17.9%
16.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
mnsqft
Stock Occupied stock Vacancy
DEMAND CONSISTENTLY OUTSTRIPPING
SUPPLY SINCE 2014
1.7
2.5
1.5
1.1
1.6
1.1
2.4
1.8
2.2
2.0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
mnsqft
New completions Absorption
DWINDLING OFFICE
SUPPLY AND STEADY
DEMAND DRIVE
RENTAL GROWTH
RENTAL GROWTH AT 3.1% DURING
JAN – JUN 2015
43
45
45
47
48
49
50
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
INR/sqft/month
IT/ITeS CONTINUES TO
BE THE LARGEST
OCCUPIER
BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES
INCREASES SHARE; BNP PARIBAS,
CITIBANK PICK UP SPACE
13%
42%
25%
20%
14%
54%
15% 16%
26%
46%
15%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BFSI* IT/ITeS Manufacturing Other Services
H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
* INCLUDES SUPPORT SERVICES
ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT
0.25
0.27
0.51
0.79
1.03
0.91
0.47
0.29
0.29
0.39
0.31
0.26
LACK OF LARGE FORMAT
OFFICE SPACE PUSHES
OCCUPIERS TOWARDS
PERIPHERAL LOCATIONS
LIKE SHOLLINGANALLUR
ONLY PERIPHERAL MARKETS SEE AN
INCREASE IN ABSORPTION SHARE
18%
27%
1%
48%
6%7%
23%
4%
27%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
CBD SBD PBD Ambattur SBD OMR PBD OMR & GST
%Share
H1 2014 H1 20150.34
0.14
0.51
0.45
0.03
0.08
0.92
0.54
0.12
0.77
DEMAND EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN
SUPPLY IN THE COMING
6 MONTHS, VACANCY TO
FALL FURTHER
OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
NEW
COMPLETIONS
(MN SQ FT)
ABSORPTION
(MN SQ FT)
VACANCY
WEIGHTED
AVERAGE
RENT
(INR/SQ FT/MONTH)
H2 2014 1.1 2.2 18.9% 49.5
H2 2015E 0.7 2.4 15.6% 51
GROWTH -39% 6% 3%
HOW DOES CHENNAI
STAND COMPARED TO
OTHER CITIES
VACANCY IN CHENNAI THOUGH
REDUCING, IS STILL THE HIGHEST
AMONG IT / ITeS DRIVEN MARKETS
22%
21%
8%
15%
18%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
mnsqft
New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS)
H1 2015
AT 3%, CHENNAI EXPERIENCED THE
WEAKEST RENTAL GROWTH DURING
JAN – JUN 2015
CHENNAI
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
GrowthinRentals
AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 3RD LARGEST
AFTER BENGALURU & PUNE
21,430
25,622
71,577
21,434
24,520
24,702
23,291
21,872
54,253
40,773
34,507
18,585
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad
sqft
H1 2014 H1 2015
RESIDENTIAL
CHENNAI
RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN A CONSOLIDATION PHASE; DEVELOPERS
RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES ON THE BACK OF STEADY SALES
OFFICE
CHENNAI
RECOVERING – DWINDLING OFFICE SUPPLY AND STEADY DEMAND DRIVE
RENTAL GROWTH
KEY TAKEAWAYS
CHENNAI
REAL
ESTATE
JANUARY TO JUNE 2015

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Chennai Real Estate Outlook Report H1 2015 - Knight Frank India

  • 3. RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN CONSOLIDATION MODE Will launches continue to spiral downward in Chennai? How are the premium locations faring in Chennai currently? Which is currently the healthiest residential market in South India?
  • 4. NEW LAUNCHES DROP BY 20% Y-O-Y; DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES 16,832 8,015 11,377 7,318 9,102 14,020 10,424 10,212 10,343 9,091 4,208 4,354 4,407 4,528 4,532 3,900 4,100 4,300 4,500 4,700 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 INR/sqft No.ofunits Launches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
  • 6. 77% OF NEW LAUNCHES BELOW INR 2.5 MN IN WEST INR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% <2.5 mn 2.5-5 mn 5-7.5 mn 7.5-10 mn 10-20 mn 20-40 mn 80-150 mn Central North South West
  • 7. WEST CHENNAI PERFORMS THE BEST CLOSELY FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
  • 8. HOWEVER, NORTH CHENNAI CONTINUES TO LANGUISH 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 AgeofInventory QTS Central North South West CENTRAL SOUTH WEST NORTH
  • 9. PREMIUM MARKET WITH RESIDENTIAL UNITS OVER INR 1.5 CRORE HIT HARD BY SLOWDOWN
  • 10. SUPPLY AND DEMAND AT LOWEST LEVELS SINCE 2013, PRICE GROWTH HOWEVER REMAINS STRONG526 213 151 420 138 596 398 342 375 147 10,206 11,308 11,448 13,279 13,495 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 INR/sqft No.ofunits Sum of New Launch Sum of Total Absorption Max of PricesLaunches Absorption Wt. Avg. Price (RHS)
  • 11. SLACK IN MARKET ENGULFS PREMIUM SEGMENT;NEARLY 2 YEARS TO OFFLOAD UNSOLD INVENTORY
  • 12. PREMIUM SEGMENT FALLS VICTIM TO MARKET MALAISE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 QTS CHENNAI CITY PREMIUM MARKET
  • 13. SALES EXPECTED TO SEE MARGINAL GROWTH IN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS
  • 14. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS LAUNCHES (UNITS) SALES (UNITS) WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE (INR/SQ FT) H2 2014 7,318 10,343 4,528 H2 2015 E 6,439 10.420 4,596 GROWTH -12% 1% 1.5%
  • 15. HOW DOES CHENNAI STAND COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
  • 16. LAUNCHES- CHENNAI MAINTAINS ITS POSITION H1 2014 H1 2015 MUMBAI 35,512 18,887 NCR 35,500 11,360 BENGALURU 35,545 21,400 PUNE 16,883 12,762 CHENNAI 11,377 9,102 AHMEDABAD 9,021 8,062 KOLKATA 8,444 8,372 HYDERABAD 7,899 5,457
  • 17. ABSORPTION- CHENNAI GOES UP AT 5TH POSITION IN SALES H1 2014 MUMBAI 31,210 NCR 28,500 BENGALURU 27,256 PUNE 14,719 AHMEDABAD 10,472 CHENNAI 10,315 HYDERABAD 7,282 KOLKATA 6,390 H1 2015 MUMBAI 28,446 BENGALURU 22,234 PUNE 15,524 NCR 14,250 CHENNAI 9,091 AHMEDABAD 7,751 HYDERABAD 7,123 KOLKATA 5,883
  • 18. CHENNAI COSTLIER THAN NCR 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Rs/sqft Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad Kolkata Ahmedabad MUMBAI PUNE AHMEDABAD HYDERABAD KOLKATA NCR BENGALURU CHENNAI
  • 19. CHENNAI AMONG THE BETTER PERFORMING MARKETS IN INDIA 5 7 9 11 13 15 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Ageofunsoldinventoryinquarters QTS MUMBAI PUNE AHMEDABAD HYDERABAD KOLKATA NCR BENGALURU CHENNAI
  • 22. VACANCY LEVEL AT A 5-YEAR LOW - 17.9% DURING JAN – JUN 2015 52.2 54.7 56.2 57.3 58.2 39.4 41.8 43.6 45.8 47.8 24.4% 23.6% 22.4% 18.9% 17.9% 16.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 mnsqft Stock Occupied stock Vacancy
  • 23. DEMAND CONSISTENTLY OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY SINCE 2014 1.7 2.5 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 mnsqft New completions Absorption
  • 24. DWINDLING OFFICE SUPPLY AND STEADY DEMAND DRIVE RENTAL GROWTH
  • 25. RENTAL GROWTH AT 3.1% DURING JAN – JUN 2015 43 45 45 47 48 49 50 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 INR/sqft/month
  • 26. IT/ITeS CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST OCCUPIER
  • 27. BANKING AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INCREASES SHARE; BNP PARIBAS, CITIBANK PICK UP SPACE 13% 42% 25% 20% 14% 54% 15% 16% 26% 46% 15% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% BFSI* IT/ITeS Manufacturing Other Services H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 * INCLUDES SUPPORT SERVICES ALL NUMBERS IN MN SQ FT 0.25 0.27 0.51 0.79 1.03 0.91 0.47 0.29 0.29 0.39 0.31 0.26
  • 28. LACK OF LARGE FORMAT OFFICE SPACE PUSHES OCCUPIERS TOWARDS PERIPHERAL LOCATIONS LIKE SHOLLINGANALLUR
  • 29. ONLY PERIPHERAL MARKETS SEE AN INCREASE IN ABSORPTION SHARE 18% 27% 1% 48% 6%7% 23% 4% 27% 39% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% CBD SBD PBD Ambattur SBD OMR PBD OMR & GST %Share H1 2014 H1 20150.34 0.14 0.51 0.45 0.03 0.08 0.92 0.54 0.12 0.77
  • 30. DEMAND EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN SUPPLY IN THE COMING 6 MONTHS, VACANCY TO FALL FURTHER
  • 31. OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS NEW COMPLETIONS (MN SQ FT) ABSORPTION (MN SQ FT) VACANCY WEIGHTED AVERAGE RENT (INR/SQ FT/MONTH) H2 2014 1.1 2.2 18.9% 49.5 H2 2015E 0.7 2.4 15.6% 51 GROWTH -39% 6% 3%
  • 32. HOW DOES CHENNAI STAND COMPARED TO OTHER CITIES
  • 33. VACANCY IN CHENNAI THOUGH REDUCING, IS STILL THE HIGHEST AMONG IT / ITeS DRIVEN MARKETS 22% 21% 8% 15% 18% 16% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad mnsqft New completions Absorption Vacancy (RHS) H1 2015
  • 34. AT 3%, CHENNAI EXPERIENCED THE WEAKEST RENTAL GROWTH DURING JAN – JUN 2015 CHENNAI -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad GrowthinRentals
  • 35. AVERAGE DEAL SIZE 3RD LARGEST AFTER BENGALURU & PUNE 21,430 25,622 71,577 21,434 24,520 24,702 23,291 21,872 54,253 40,773 34,507 18,585 - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Mumbai NCR Bengaluru Pune Chennai Hyderabad sqft H1 2014 H1 2015
  • 36. RESIDENTIAL CHENNAI RESIDENTIAL MARKET IN A CONSOLIDATION PHASE; DEVELOPERS RESTRICT NEW LAUNCHES ON THE BACK OF STEADY SALES OFFICE CHENNAI RECOVERING – DWINDLING OFFICE SUPPLY AND STEADY DEMAND DRIVE RENTAL GROWTH KEY TAKEAWAYS

Editor's Notes

  1. DUE TO RELATIVELY UNDERDEVELOPED INFRASTRUCTURE AND LACK OF ACCESS TO BUSINESS HUBS
  2. Please refer to h2 for a comparison
  3. DUE TO IMPROVING BUSINESS SENTIMENT, REVIVAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES, PICK UP IN IT/ITeS