1. Weather forecasting and Sustainable
Agriculture
Dr. Rohit Srivastava
Indian Centre for Climate and Societal Impacts Research
(ICCSIR)
Mandvi, Kachchh, Gujarat, India
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
Conference of the Parties (COP 22)
Marrakech, Morocco

2. Weather and Climate
Weather represent the current conditions of
Temperature, Rain, Humidity and Wind etc.
Climate represent the average condition of weather
The change in climate also influences the weather
condition.
Under changing climate scenario, the weather
forecasts are very important for planning.
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

3. Climate change : Causes and Impacts
Causes
Natural Cause
 Forest fire
 Volcanic Eruption
Anthropogenic causes
 Industrial and vehicular
exhaust
 Crop residue burning
 Land use land cover
change
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )
Climate
Change
Impacts
 Global warming
 Glacier melting and
Sea level rise
 Increasing extreme
events (Floods and
Droughts)
 Decline the agriculture
productivity

4. Climate change and Agriculture
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )
Agriculture
Soil and
Water
degradation
Evaporation
Crop
pattern
Food
Security
Influence
the
productivity
Declination
farmers’
Income
Agriculture
Inputs
Disaster
Catastrophes

5. Climate Resilient Agriculture (CRA)
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )
CRA
Soil and
water
quality
status
Weather
forecasting
and Agro-
met advisory
Weather
warning
and alert
Farmers
management
training
Crop
insurance
Information
Dissemination
Cattle health
Satellite
monitoring
of crops

6. Southwest monsoon forecast 2016
(ICCSIR, )
June : Less rain 10 %
July : Normal rain (+5
%)
August : Normal Rain
(+8 %)
September : Above
Normal Rain (+15 %)
Forecasted on April, 2016
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

7. Monsoon 2016 : 01 June – 21 September 2016
(ICCSIR, )
Whole India 3% less rain.
Kachchh and Saurastra
regions 13% less rain.
East, north and south
Gujarat : 24% less rain.
Maharashtra region :
4 – 10% more rain
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

8. Complexity in weather forecasts
Deterministic: All data is known beforehand. Once you start
the system, you know exactly what is going to happen.
Example: Predicting the amount of money in a bank account.
If you know the initial deposit, and the interest rate, then: You
can determine the amount in the account after one year.
Probabilistic: Element of chance is involved.
You know the likelihood that something will happen, but you
don’t know when it will happen.
Example: Roll a die until it comes up ‘5’. Know that in each
roll, a ‘6’ will come up with probability 1/6.
Don’t know exactly when, but we can predict well.
(ICCSIR, )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

9. ICCSIR's Weekly weather forecast
Bulletin
ICCSIR disseminates weekly weather forecast on each Tuesday
The forecasted and observed
rainfall are found the have
correlations in the range of 75% to
85% at different locations.
For other parameters the
correlations are greater than 80%.
The ICCSIR's weather bulletin was
found to be useful in planning different
activities according to the weather
conditions.
Under heavy rain condtions,
people will be well prepared and
catastrophe will reduced.
The weather forecasts data are obtained from
different forecasting agencies of India.
(ICCSIR, )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

10. Continuous measurements of
weather parameters
ICCSIR has installed Automatic Weather Station
(AWS) for Continuous measurements of
weather parameters.
Continuous measurements will be very useful in
planning different activities
For better prediction Continuous measurements
are very important
(ICCSIR, )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

11. (Automatic Weather Station
(AWS))
(ICCSIR, )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

12. Improving the weather forecasts
Weather forecasting Model simulations will be
assimilated with the real measurements; and 3 to 5
days forecasts will be obtained and provided to
farmers at village/ block level.
Agromet advisory with the help of experts /
scientists will be generated and disseminated.
(ICCSIR, )Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

13. Thank You
Dr. Rohit Srivastava
ICCSIR, Mandvi (Kachchh ),Gujarat, India
Phone No. : +91 2834 – 224024
Email : rohit.srivastava@iccsir.org
Web : http://www.iccsir.org
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/iccsir

14. Rukmavati River Basin Kachchh
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

15. Status of Soil Conditions
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )

16. Monitoring using sattelite
Dr. Rohit Srivastava (ICCSIR, Mandvi Kachchh India )