Digital trend catcher-guide-2011-v2.01

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The Digital TrendCatcher Guide has been designed to help you better understand and plan for the changing opportunities and challenges of doing business in the Digital Age.

Visit http://digitaltrendcatchers.com to get extra info about smarter strategies, tactics and tools you can use in your business

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Digital trend catcher-guide-2011-v2.01

  1. 1. What others are saying about Digital TrendCatcher Guide “It’s not often you see big picture thinking and business planning clearly linked in insightful and practical ways, with opportunityas the focus. There’s nothing else like Richard Keeves’ Digital TrendCatcher Guide around and you would expect to pay a lot for it.Don’t be fooled by the fact that it’s free.” Denny Sterley Australian Practice Leader, Resilient Futures ----------------------------- “There is no question that Richard Keeves has a deep understanding of the nature of the digital tsunami that is shaping the waywe all live, work and play. Like the boiling frog, we have a tendency to acclimatise to change, considering our current situation asnormal and largely forgetting the extent and speed of change we have experienced - to say nothing about underestimating what isyet to come. Not only has Richard enumerated the various elements of this wave, he has also given us an understanding of theunderlying currents (or Action Principles) which combine to give the wave its power. His insights allow us to recognise potentialmoves and clues as to how best you might ride the wave. Whether you simply want a better understanding of the digital revolution or want to apply this to your strategic businessplanning or competitive strategies, this guide makes compelling reading. I understand it started as a briefing paper and has sinceevolved into a small book – such is its scope. Those who take the time to study it and apply the knowledge it contains will find theirtime well spent – it has the potential to make a significant impact on the way you run your business now and in the future." David Shelton Director, Transition Capital ----------------------------- “This Guide highlights trends that cannot be ignored. We need to plan our actions, and need to create our own roadmaps to dealwith business opportunities and threats that are now mission critical. Like it or not it is not going away, and is only getting bigger andfaster. Richard explains how and why the bar keeps rising. Use his guidance and thought-provoking research to assist you in yourbusiness and personal journey.” John Clegg Business Adviser , Omnivest Business Consultants ----------------------------- “There is only one constant in today’s world and that is change. Having read the Digital TrendCatcher Guide, it makes meappreciate how much is changing and how much more I need to know. It can be scary. Is the world passing me by? No, it isn’t! I now really appreciate my contribution to my business. The major contribution we all bring to any business is OURSELVES andour THOUGHTS. By better understanding the trends, I can have better THOUGHTS and can better assist my business. This is essentialreading. Then read it again.” Colin Atkinson Managing Director, CA Management Services ----------------------------- “This guide echoes sentiments I have had for many years. We get too clouded by what’s out on the Internet. Our focus needs tobe on planning and creating better business outcomes, and then use the tools that are available to us.” David Barnes Executive Director, Platform Interactive ----------------------------- "Compulsory reading for any executive who is serious about understanding how digital communication is changing the world.” James Bull Website Planner, Writer & Presenter, James Bull Consulting Pty Ltd ----------------------------- “As the boundary between the online virtual worlds & our tangible 3D world relies increasingly on our own perceptions, any textwe find that helps us clarify the distinctions & how to operate them better is a useful read. Richard Keeves writes clearly, cleanly, &without technobabble. Good stuff.” Annimac Futurist & Trend Forecaster, www.annimac.com.au ----------------------------- “The Digital TrendCatcher Guide is a must read before making decisions about technology. Richard explains each digital trend withclarity, preparing you to focus on the big picture (where you are going) before deciding on the tools to get there.” Mark Douglas Managing Director, Francis A Jones
  2. 2. Digital TrendCatcher Guide The Digital TrendCatcher Guide has been designed to help you better understand and plan for the changing opportunities and challenges of doing business in the Digital Age. It is intended for any customer-focused business owner, manager or planner in corporate, not-for- profit, government or small business who wants to  Make better plans for running your business online;  Enhance your business website;  Improve your marketing plans;  Get better at managing change;  Develop or find highly saleable new products;  Streamline your business processes;  Continuously improve your business; or  Cut through any confusion caused by changing technology. Digital TrendCatcher Guide Overview The rapidly changing technology of the Internet and online systems can makes it appear as a confusing and often overwhelming ‘blur’. Find the patterns and you can change the blur to a vision. To effectively plan for the future, we need to expand the focus of our vision from the short-term ‘technology’ to the long-term ‘trends’; rise above the day-to-day; extend our horizons; and create our ‘Big Picture’ future view based on the long term trends, and their possible or likely impacts on our customers and our industry. In this guide, Richard Keeves highlights 25 Digital Age Trends that are guiding and influencing the future of online business in a complex system of intermingled stimulatory actions, reactions, causes and effects. The trends often combine together with continual feedback loops to exponentially drive greater change at faster speeds and with increasingly powerful impacts. Richard explains the 9 Step ‘Future Road Map’ Planning process for using the trends, and then provides guidelines of 20 Critical Criteria for Choosing Technology Solutions so you make the wisest choices you can with your technology selections. The approach in the Digital TrendCatcher Guide can help you see and understand the long-term patterns and trends that often get lost or disguised in amongst the rapidly changing technology. You will learn how to strategically question your current business thinking and challenge the accepted norms for your business and industry. As a result, you can more quickly and easily develop clearer strategic vision and an ‘on-trend’ roadmap for the future of your business. Think about your business roadmap before you think about the technology tools to use. Be aware that choosing the most suitable tools and technologies to implement is a business decision as much as a technical one, and should not be just delegated to your IT staff or consultants. Richard Keeves is an Internet Business advisor, speaker & author with over 15 years experience in Internet business consultancy and development. (Background on Richard Keeves is on Page 73.) Richard provides insights and advice for better online business. Join Richard‟s mailing list for ongoing updates to the Digital TrendCatcher Guide and the future of online business. Visit www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com© Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 3 of 75
  3. 3. “To know and not to do is to not yet know”. — Zen Wisdom “Knowledge might be power, but only when you take action.” — Richard Keeves For more resources, please visit www.DigitalTrendCatchers.comDigital TrendCatcher Guidewww.DigitalTrendCatchers.comISBN 978-0-9808226-1-8Keeves, RichardPublisherRichard Keeves and Business InfoMedia Onlinewww.RichardKeeves.com www.businessinfomedia.comFirst published 2010 by Business InfoMedia Online, an imprint of KIT Investments Pty LtdGround Floor, 11 Ventnor Avenue, West Perth, Western Australia 6005Postal Address: Box 670 Nedlands 6909 AustraliaPhone: Australia: + 61 8 9467 1884 USA: + 1 415 675 8871Copyright: All contents copyright© 2010-2011 Richard Keeves and Business InfoMedia OnlineUpdated January 2011The moral rights of the author Richard Keeves have been asserted.This book may be freely distributed, printed and stored without the prior written permission of the publisher. It must be maintained in itsentirety as originally created by the author and published by the publisher and may not be modified, dissembled or re-engineered,All inquiries should be made to the publisher at the address above.TrademarksThis book identifies product names and services known to be trademarks, registered trademarks, or service marks of their respectiveholders. They are used throughout this book in an editorial fashion only. In addition, terms suspected of being trademarks, registeredtrademarks, or service marks have been appropriately capitalized, although Business InfoMedia Online cannot attest to the accuracy ofthis information. Use of a term in this book should not be regarded as affecting the validity of any trademark, registered trademark, orservice mark. Business InfoMedia Online is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book, if any.Limit of Liability and Disclaimer of WarrantyThe publisher has used its best efforts in preparing this book, and the information provided herein is provided "as is." Business InfoMediaOnline makes no representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book andspecifically disclaims any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose and shall in no event be liable forany loss of profit or any other commercial damage, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.The accuracy and completeness of information provided herein and opinions stated herein are not guaranteed or warranted toproduce any particular results and the advice and strategies, contained herein may not be suitable for every individual. The material inthis publication is of the nature of general comment only and does not represent professional advice. The publisher and author shall notbe liable for any loss incurred as a consequence of the use and application, directly or indirectly, of any information presented in thiswork. This publication is designed to provide accuracy in regard to the subject matter covered. The author has used reasonablecommercial efforts in preparing this book. This book is provided with the understanding that the author is not engaged in renderinglegal, accounting, or other professional services. If legal advice or expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professionalshould be sought. V2.01 © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 4 of 75
  4. 4. ContentsWhat Is Really Going On In The Blur?.....................................................................................7 The Continually Morphing Picture Puzzle ....................................................................................................................... 9 Ten Action Principles....................................................................................................................................................... 9 The 25 Digital Age Trends ............................................................................................................................................. 10 Trend 1: Moores Law Continues .................................................................................................................................. 12 Trend 2: Internet Always On ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Trend 3: More 24.7 On Demand ................................................................................................................................... 15 Trend 4: Increasingly Faster Speeds of Transactions .................................................................................................... 17 Trend 5: Increasingly Faster Wireless Networks ........................................................................................................... 18 Trend 6: Increasingly Smarter Mobile Devices ............................................................................................................. 19 Trend 7: Increasing Convergence.................................................................................................................................. 20 Trend 8: More Technical Connectivity .......................................................................................................................... 21 Trend 9: More Personal Connectivity ........................................................................................................................... 23 Trend 10: Increasing Formation of Communities ......................................................................................................... 25 Trend 11: Increasing Corporate Ecosystems ................................................................................................................. 26 Trend 12: Increasing Disintermediation ....................................................................................................................... 27 Trend 13: Increasing Transformation from Atoms to Bits ............................................................................................ 29 Trend 14: Increasing Mass Customization .................................................................................................................... 31 Trend 15: Increasing Globalization ............................................................................................................................... 33 Trend 16: More “100% Fit” Products in Global Niches ................................................................................................. 35 Trend 17: Increasing 1 to 1 Marketing .......................................................................................................................... 37 Trend 18: Increasing Aggregation of Information ......................................................................................................... 39 Trend 19: The Changing Relevance of Physical Location .............................................................................................. 40 Trend 20: Increasing Availability of Low Cost Software & Data Storage Solutions ....................................................... 41 Trend 21: Increasing Exposure to Popular Mass Culture .............................................................................................. 43 Trend 22: Increasing Importance of Trusted Brands .................................................................................................... 45 Trend 23: Increasing Importance of Peer Reviews & Recommendations..................................................................... 48 Trend 24: Increasing Loss of Control of our Personal Information & Identity .............................................................. 50 Trend 25: Increasing Power to Consumers ................................................................................................................... 52How To Use The 25 Trends In Your Business Planning ............................................................. 54 STEP 1: Ask The Three Starter Questions ...................................................................................................................... 56 STEP 2: Use Digital TrendCatcher Action Principles & Trends ...................................................................................... 58 STEP 3: How could you improve your Products & Processes? ...................................................................................... 59 STEP 4: What Can You Learn From Your Benchmarks? ................................................................................................. 62 STEP 5: What Can You Learn From Your Key Customers? ............................................................................................ 62 STEP 6: What Can You Learn From Your Community? ................................................................................................. 63 STEP 7: What Can You Learn From Your Competitors? ................................................................................................ 65 STEP 8: Assess Your Strategic Options .......................................................................................................................... 67 STEP 9: Develop Your Road Map for the Future ........................................................................................................... 68Choosing Technology – and Why Many People Get It Wrong ...................................................... 69 20 Critical Criteria for Choosing Technology Solutions ................................................................................................. 70 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................... 72 Some background info on Richard Keeves .................................................................................................................... 73 Appendix 1: Digital TrendCatcher Future Road Map Planning Process ........................................................................ 75 © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 5 of 75
  5. 5. Acknowledgements I am deeply grateful and indebted to friends and colleagues for their inputs and contributions over the years, and more recently for taking the time to read early drafts of the guide and critically give their honest comments. These include Denny Sterley, Colin Atkinson, George Aveling, Larry Quick, John Clegg, David Shelton, David Barnes, Ann Macbeth, Tony Walton, Mark Douglas, Dr Shaun Ridley, James Bull, and not least, my wife Jane Keeves. Hundreds if not thousands of people have influenced my thinking and my views of the trends of the Digital Age through their books, seminars, and conversations over the past 20 years. Major influencers have been Jason Van Orden, Shane Kelly, Rob Donkersloot, David Dell, Nicholas Negroponte, Daniel Burrus, John Naisbitt, Ray Hammond, Tim Ferris, Blair Singer, Martha Rogers, Geoffrey Moore, Dr Edward De Bono, and Buckminster Fuller. Among the most significant influencers was, and still is, Robert Kiyosaki, who in about 1991-2 was guest speaker at a breakfast my business magazine was hosting in Perth. Robert’s seemingly simple but deeply profound message to everyone present nearly 20 years ago was “Your Competition Is Electronic”. I’ve learnt so much from Robert over the years, and it was a privilege to have him as a teacher for many seminars and workshops in the 90s. Shortly after that breakfast, I found myself wandering through a retail computer shop. At the time, in my business information and magazine publishing business, we thought we used computers pretty cleverly – for word processing, accounts, spreadsheets, customer databases and even some desktop publishing. Contributing writers had progressed from posting us their articles on paper to sending us articles by courier on a ‘floppy disc’. Not having to re-type articles saved heaps of time, and yep, we thought we were reasonably smart users of technology. So there I was, in the computer shop looking at the different bits and pieces that could be connected to a computer to do things even more cleverly. I noticed one device that we were not yet using in our business. It was a ‘modem’, that allowed a computer to directly connect to another computer through a phone line. (The modem speed then was 4,800 bits per second.) “Hmmm,” I thought. “Connecting two computers over a phone line… Interesting idea…. Maybe I should get one of these modem things, and see if it might be useful.” My connected journey had begun. The modem became useful, and even more so when modems quickly became faster and could help me and others connect to many computers at once. And I moved on from publishing business information in a printed magazine format to exploring new ways of publishing electronically and doing business electronically – and helping others to discover, understand and successfully use the Internet for business. Please enjoy the Digital TrendCatcher Guide and this view on the trends of the Digital Age. As far as I know, the facts quoted throughout are correct as at the time of writing. The opinions and views are my own, but many are shared with other people. Any mistakes are just mine. Catching the Digital Trends and creating your own Big Picture future is not just an exercise to do once and then think you’ve got it figured out forever. It is an ongoing process. Thanks again to all those who have helped with comments, suggestions, criticisms and ideas. This is part of my evolving and ongoing guidance to help business owners and managers cut through the confusion to find a clear pathway to do better business online and grow and prosper in the Digital Age. And I’d love your feedback, thoughts and response. Cheers Richard Keeves Richard@DigitalTrendCatchers.com (please, no spam.) PS: This Digital TrendCatcher Guide book is provided for free distribution in its entire form. Please share it with others if you wish. It’s not free because it has no value. Hopefully it will be very valuable to you and others. In the world of Abundance, the more something is shared and used, the more valuable it can become. How you use the guide - or don’t use it - is now up to you. I’ll be pleased if you use it to help create a better future for us all. Let me know how you go… Find this useful? Buy me a beer. You can do it through PayPal…© Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 6 of 75
  6. 6. Digital TrendCatcher Guide Major forces and trends are shaping the future of your business online. Byunderstanding these trends, you can accelerate your business… without gettingconfused by the rapidly changing Internet technology. How you work with the trends or try to ignore them is up to you, but cleverlycatching and riding the trends that will change your industry can fast-track yourbusiness growth and success.What Is Really Going On In The Blur? Whether you’re planning to expand your business or simply planning to stayalive in business, you need to find smarter, faster and lower cost ways to betterservice your customers. Be open to fresh Smarter use of online systems and the Internet can help you develop thoughts.opportunities for tomorrow as well as solving problems of today, but doingbusiness in the Digital Age requires continual fresh thinking, starting with the “To know and not to dothinking of abundance. is to not yet know.” (Zen) With the online world, there is no scarcity other than probably a scarcity of ourown time. There is abundance of almost everything else. In the old scarcity world, the more you use a resource, the less you have of it.The less a scarce resource is available, the more valuable it becomes. In the Abundant online world, In the abundant online world of today and tomorrow, resources do not resources do not diminish.diminish. The more a resource is used, the more valuable it becomes. Rather thangetting lost in the abundance, a resource that is highly valuable and greatly used The more something is used,stands out in the crowd, not diminishing but growing, and often exponentially. the more valuable it becomes. In the scarcity-based off-line business world, large individual firms cangenerate wealth from achieving economies of scale, but paradoxically, the samescale that helped them create their wealth often becomes an anchor, inflexiblyweighing them down and preventing the changes needed to prosper in an agilefuture. In the world of abundance online, small, highly networked businesses can The online world hasgenerate wealth from achieving economies of structure that give them the abundance, and those who cannecessary scale but also flexibility and agility to change rapidly for the future. understand the structure and The online world has abundance, and those who can understand the structure catch the trends can thinkand catch the trends can think ahead and get ahead. ahead and get ahead. In the online world there is little to stop you using smart technology andsystems to enhance your products and services, provide better service for yourexisting customers, and reach out to new customers in new markets. © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 7 of 75
  7. 7. There is also little to stop your competitors doing this either, and you may notHow many of your customers even know if or when new competitors are threatening your business.would be tempted by better In the global marketplace, new competitors are emerging, cleverly hunting forproducts and services providing new opportunities. Even for local businesses, your current customers are not sacred cash cows you can take for granted. Sooner or later, they are likely to besubstantially more benefits and attractive and tempting targets for someone somewhere to attack.value, and delivered in smarter How many of your customers would be tempted by better products andfaster ways at lower cost? services providing substantially more benefits and value, and delivered in smarter faster ways at lower cost? Improved online systems can help you create small enhancements that make a big difference to your customers or to your own business operations, or can create Without getting too technical, revolutionary new products, services and processes that become game-changers let’s clear this up… for your whole industry. “What’s the difference There is an amazing array of available technology choices and possible online between business solutions, and every day seems to bring more options to help you meet the Internet & the Web?” your business opportunities and challenges. Finding a clear pathway is not just difficult, but continually and increasingly problematic.The Internet (or Net) is the globalsystem of interconnected computer Many people dabble with new techno-tools and play with fads that catch theirnetworks through which packets of attention, often introducing different systems and adding to the fragmentation ofdata are rapidly exchanged between processes and technology within their organizations.computers and now other devices. The price you pay for technology systems is not just measured in the ‘dollars’The World Wide Web (Web) is a you pay up front, especially when they don’t appear to be expensive, and may besystem of interlinked hypertext cheap or even free. Significant costs come from the implementation, use anddocuments, media files and other ultimately migration away from different systems.files and applications on web sitesaccessed via the Internet. Integration of different systems is increasingly important, but often overlooked. Fragmented systems invariably cause fragmented business processes,In other words, the Internet is the and there are real, but often hidden costs from the confusion, constraints andtechnical infrastructure and the Web missed opportunities in the fragmented chaos of multiple systems within anis a system of linked information organization.that the Internet allows us to access. At a business level, you want systems that can be introduced quickly; can beData exchange on the Net uses learnt easily; will work effectively, securely and reliably; will be cost-effective andTCP/IP. This is an acronym for preferably with an easily demonstrated return on investment; bring no or low risksTransmission Control Protocol (TCP) to your business; and give good options for the future.and Internet Protocol (IP). Many businesses get their new technology choices wrong – or at least, theyEmail, Voice Over IP (VoIP) and FTP don’t get these choices right enough. They make short-term, ad-hoc reactionary(File Transfer Protocol) are examples decisions, or they find themselves playing expensive trial and error games trying toof other systems that can use the pick the winners amongst the range of possible new applications, tools andInternet independently to the Web. systems. Choosing the right mix of Internet and web applications, systems, databases, tools, marketing processes, products, payment systems and other technologies for your business is a puzzle. And the more it grows, the more it becomes an How hard is it to complete increasingly complex puzzle. a jig-saw puzzle when How hard is it to complete a jig-saw picture puzzle when you’ve never seen the you‟ve never seen the picture you are trying to create with all the puzzle pieces? picture you are trying to To make it worse, even the edges of the picture puzzle are unclear as there are create with all the puzzle pieces? no obvious corner pieces or puzzle pieces with straight sides to help you define the boundaries of the picture. The puzzle can be a confusing blur… © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 8 of 75
  8. 8. The Continually Morphing Picture Puzzle Your blurry puzzle challenge is made even harder when you realize these puzzlepieces are continually morphing, changing their shapes, colors and points ofinteraction and integration. How are you ever going to complete the puzzle? The key is to draw back from just focusing on the puzzle pieces and expand Look for the patterns andyour vision and your view. Rise above the short-term confusion of today’s you will start to see long-technology puzzle and look over the horizon. Allow yourself the time and space to term change for what it is,expand your vision to see the big picture for your business. generally neither random, Think about the real needs and wants of your customers, and think about the ad-hoc, accidental norbenefits and value you offer. Look back and look forward and see the patterns faddish.emerge for your customers, your business and your industry. Your big picturefocus must at least be wide enough to include your business, your products, yourindustry, your customers, your future customers, your competitors, and yourcommunity. As you expand your focus and your horizons, your view of doing businessyesterday, today and more importantly, tomorrow will start to change from a blurto a clearer vision. Look for the patterns, and you will start to see long-termchange for what it is, generally neither random, ad-hoc, accidental nor faddish. These long-term changes in the Digital Age have been happening over past 15to 20 years. Once you recognize the principles, patterns and trends, you will betterunderstand why there is every likelihood these will continue into the future foranother 15 to 20 years and beyond.Ten Action Principles Intrinsic to the Digital Age trends are ten Action Principles that fundamentallyunderlie the growth of the Internet and Internet-related technology. The ActionPrinciples are:1. Simplifying: Making the complex simple to use.2. Decentralizing: Connecting many smaller resources in a distributed system provides more agility, flexibility, capability, expandability and resilience with less risk than creating and maintaining one larger central resource.3. Ephemeralizing: Continually driving for greater efficiencies often at less cost by progressively accomplishing more and more with less and less.4. Leveraging: Finding and using the right lever wisely to have a small action produce a larger and preferably ongoing reaction.5. Connecting: Connecting before value is expected or delivered, with the connection being strengthened when value is delivered.6. Enabling: Giving people the ability to do more of what they want to do; preferably easier, better, faster and cheaper.7. Empowering: Helping people to do as much or as little as they want to do themselves.8. Engaging: Stimulating more meaningful interactions based on relevance, value, importance, and timeliness.9. Synergizing: Joining individual parts together and creating more value than the parts each had separately.10. Harmonizing: Combining small individual waves that are moving together at the same time and in the same direction to form much larger and more powerful waves. © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 9 of 75
  9. 9. The 25 Digital Age Trends The ten Action Principles, working in combination with 25 macro-level trends, are creating and influencing the future of the Digital Age.Some trends may appear As you go through the trends, some may appear so obvious you take them forso obvious you take them granted and scarcely recognize them for the life and business changing effectsfor granted and scarcely they are causing.recognize them for the lifeand business changing Don’t ignore or under-estimate any of the trends. Each of the trendseffects they are causing. individually can impact your business and your life, but in combination, multiple trends can make ongoing change unstoppable! 1: Moores Law Continues 2: The Internet Is Always On 3: More 24.7 On-Demand 4: Increasingly Faster Speeds of Transactions 5: Increasingly Faster Wireless Networks 6: More and Smarter Mobile Devices 7: Increasing ConvergenceDon‟t ignore or under- 8: More Technical Connectivityestimate any one of the 9: More Personal Connectivitytrends, because each ofthe trends individually 10: Increasing Formation of Communitiescould continue to impact 11: More Corporate Ecosystemsyour business and your lifewell into the future. 12: Increasing Disintermediation 13: Increasing Transformation 14: Increasing Mass Customization 15: Increasing Globalization 16: More “100% Fit” Products in Global Niches 17: Increasing 1 to 1 Marketing 18: Increasing Aggregation of Information 19: Changing Importance of Physical Location 20: More Low Cost Software and Storage Solutions 21: Increasing Exposure to Popular Mass CultureIn combination, thedifferent trends can make 22: Increasing Importance of Trusted Brandsongoing change 23: Increasing Importance of Peer Reviews and Recommendationsunstoppable! 24: Increasing Loss of Control of our Personal Information & Identity 25: Increasing Power to Consumers © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 10 of 75
  10. 10. Some trends may appear to be more relevant than others to you, yourbusiness, your industry, your competitors and more importantly your customers.Be aware that how you see each trend now will undoubtedly be influenced by yourpast and current thinking and experiences. As you look to the future, you will need open-minded fresh innovativepossibility thinking about each trend, not restricted closed thinking from the past. This is not necessarily just about you planning or making revolutionary changesfor your organization. You can use fresh thinking about each trend to generateideas for small incremental improvements to your current business, systems andprocesses.It’s not just About You. It’s Always about Your Customers Understanding and catching the trends with fresh thinking can help you seeideas and options that are on-trend and make sense for you, your customers andyour industry. You will see some changes that can help your organization becomemore efficient in its processes, production and operations. Ultimately though, real improvements in business are almost always Ultimately, real improvements incustomer-focused and about providing greater benefits and value to business are almost alwayscustomers. customer-focused and about providing greater benefits and Think about what your customers really value from you, not just the value to customers.products and services you provide but the benefits these bring to thecustomer, and the benefits behind the benefits. Being better, faster, cheaper, more convenient and using fewer Think of the constraints and limitations with your current business scarce resources in the process.model, products and services, and imagine how each trend could change orremove these constraints and limits in the future allowing you to improve yourservices to your customers. How can your business become better for your customers? Better, faster,cheaper, and more convenient and use fewer scarce resources in the process….Trends Combined Gain Energy & Momentum Think of the effect of different trends in variable combinations. Don’t just thinkof a single trend in isolation. The effect of different trends is far greater when theycombine in harmony with each other. Remember, when a business idea, product or process is on trend with multipletrends, it gains energy and momentum and can become almost unstoppable. More progress can be made faster and easier by embracing and working withthese principles and trends rather than trying to work against them. Ignoring the trends doesn’t help. These trends are happening anyway, with orwithout you! © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 11 of 75
  11. 11. Trend 1: Moores Law ContinuesClosely Related Trends  Always more computer processing power.4: Transaction Speed  Processing power doubles every 18 to 24 months.  Always faster, smaller, cheaper5: Fast Wireless Networks6: Smart Mobile Devices In 1965, Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore noted that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year from 1958 to 1965 and7: Convergence he accurately predicted this trend would continue "for at least ten years". This8: Technical Connectivity became known as Moore’s Law.20: Low Cost Software In 1975, Moore revised the Law to predict the doubling of computer processing Solutions power every two years – and this prediction has come true ever since, often doubling within 18 months. According to Wikipedia, the law is now used in the semiconductor industry to guide long-term planning and to set targets for research and development, but it has also unfolded as a self-fulfilling prophecy, where the goal set by the prediction charts the course for capability to be realized. As of now in 2011, Moore’s Law shows no sign of slowing down. In 2008, Intel predicted the Law would hold true until at least 2029. Similar self-fulfilling predictive ‘laws’ have also been developed in other areas of IT growth… Moore’s Law covers increasing processing power and density. Kryder’s law predicts hard disk storage capacity doubling every 2 years; Butter’s Law of Photonics says the amount of data coming out of an optical fiber is doubling every 9 months, and Nielsen’s Law says that the bandwidth available to Internet users increases by 50% annually. Not surprisingly, this extra processing power requires more electrical power to make it work. The power consumption of computer nodes (i.e. computing devices) has been doubling every 18 months. Fortunately, the makers of semi-conductors Moore‟s Law makes are also focused on processors for mobile devices which use far less power. electronic products always faster, smaller, We can continue to expect computing devices to be more powerful, faster, cheaper… smaller, cheaper and with higher speed connectivity for many years to come. In fact, the people who make these devices and the networks we run on are planning for it - and making these predictions come true. Of course we won’t all rush out and buy the latest technotools as soon as they are released, but there will be a continual flow of new tools of which some will catch on with us and our customers. We’ll try the new tools, use them and then take them for granted. Later, we’ll discard them. Some will change our lives. Questions To Ponder 1. What do you know about how your customers adopt new tools and systems? (You need to be ahead of them, but not too far ahead. You won’t want to be too far behind your customers.) 2. Have you noticed increased productivity, increased efficiency and reduced costs in your business from faster and cheaper technology? How do you measure it? How could you measure it in the future? 3. How much processing power do you need? (Most people don’t use all the power they have now.) Could you dumb down your equipment? 4. How fast and smart are you and your staff? Which tools make you smarter? Which tools make you more productive? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 12 of 75
  12. 12. Trend 2: Internet Always On  24.7 bit flow with more devices anywhere.  More 24.7 users expect fast response 24.7 Closely Related Trends  Continual connectivity increasingly taken for granted & relied upon. 3: 24.7 On-Demand 4: Transaction Speed For those of us who can remember life on the Internet in the mid 90s, we’llrecall the struggle of programming a modem to dial an ISP’s phone number and 5: Fast Wireless Networksdialing up to establish a connection to the Internet long enough to send and 6: Smart Mobile Devicesreceive emails and out of curiosity, maybe briefly ‘surf’ the Web. 7: Convergence Then we’d hang up, disconnect the phone line and use the phone for its 8: Technical Connectivityintended purpose – to make phone calls to other people. For us then, the 9: Personal ConnectivityInternet was not always on and we had to connect to it. 11: Corporate Ecosystems Now, for many of us, all that has changed. In many countries and regions of 19: Physical Locationthe world we can be continuously connected to the Internet, often with multiple 20: Low Cost Softwaredevices at the same time. Solutions More and more people and businesses around the world will be relying on thecontinual connectivity of the Internet. Already it’s being taken for granted that wecan be connected, 24.7. We also take for granted that websites we want to visit on the Internet will beavailable 24.7 and always on. Some people suffer physical and emotionalwithdrawal symptoms if their internet connection goes down or if they can’taccess their favorite website.More Connected ‘Always On’ Devices Look around you in your Increasingly as new technology rolls out, more and more devices will be business and home.Internet enabled and will be always connected. Sooner or later, anything and Anything electronic caneverything that is electronic could be – and may be – connected continuously to be connected to thethe Internet. Internet and „Always On‟ Data will be flowing between offices, homes, cars, mobiles, alarm systems,fridges, plant and machinery control systems, gaming devices, cameras, signs,televisions, big displays screens, little display screens, projectors… and theInternet. Look around you in your business and home. Look further to cars, boats, trains,planes, hospitals, sporting grounds… Anything electronic can be connected to theInternet and Always On. When something can be connected and is made moreuseful, accessible or controllable by the connection to the Net, then it will happen. When we as individuals are connected and our devices are connected, it’s easyto think that everyone else is connected with us. It’s important to remember thatsome people are connected, but others, for a variety of reasons are not. TheDigital Divide is real. As new technology rolls out, different people will try it, adopt it or reject it atdifferent times. Different customers will take it up at different speeds and fordifferent reasons. Your customers will all be somewhere in the spectrum ofInnovators, Early Adopters, Early Majority, Late Majority and Laggards.Maintaining and running different systems for fast-moving and slow-movingcustomers can become an expensive business overhead. © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 13 of 75
  13. 13. Many people now take the Always On Internet for granted, and are basing key business processes on this continual connectivity. This can be a dangerous approach, as some have found out when their website is attacked and unavailable. Cyber-warfare is real. In the possible event of a future war, the Internet and many of the networks and servers on it would be likely to be attacked. Parts of the Internet or possibly the entire Internet may be taken down, taken out or switched off. Much of the core Internet infrastructure is in the USA. In June 2010, the US Senate introduced the “Protecting Cyberspace as a National Asset Act”, which gives emergency powers to the US President to control and even shut down the Internet for up to 120 days or longer with the approval of the US Congress. Critics have called it “The Internet Kill Switch”. How effective it would be is questionable, as the Internet is designed to route its data flow around any break in the network. The USA can’t switch off the entire Internet but they could take the US off-line by isolating it, stopping internal trafficWhat is far more likely is and blocking satellite communications. With about 90% of Internet data beingthat an individual business routed through the USA because it is so cheap to do so, the speed of data flowsuch as yours will be through the rest of the network would suffer.affected by a technicalbreakdown issue, an attack It’s a risk, but for the moment, a low one. Until a war or major attack, most ofor a hack. the Internet will hopefully remain on. What is far more likely is that an individual business such as yours will be affected by a technical breakdown issue, a Denial of Service (DoS) attack on an Internet-facing server or individual or group hack into your online systems. Don’t take secure and safe continual connectivity for granted. Make contingency plans, have good backups of all systems and databases, and test your plans and your backups regularly. Questions To Ponder 1. How much could you gain by being connected 24.7? 2. What could you lose by not being connected 24.7? 3. What will you need to do or provide for your customers? 4. How would it affect your business if your website was not accessible to others for an hour, a day, a week or longer? 5. What would happen to your business if other websites you rely on were suddenly not accessible to you for a week or more? 6. How would your business operate if you suddenly lost all of your website and customer databases? 7. How reliant are you on email? What happens if your email was not accessible for 1 day, 7 days or 30 days? 8. Do you really want to be connected to your business 24.7? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 14 of 75
  14. 14. Trend 3: More 24.7 On Demand  Content consumed as needed.  Consumers increasingly expect that suppliers will provide content, Closely Related Trends products and services when, how, where and as the consumer wants 2: Internet Always On them. 4: Transaction Speed  Requires ‘Just In Time’ access and delivery 5: Fast Wireless Networks  Requires ‘Real Time’ access and delivery 6: Smart Mobile Devices With continual connectivity comes the increasing expectation that we as 7: ConvergenceInternet users can find and do what we want to online, when and how we want it. 8: Technical Connectivity We want to consume content when needed, and we want to be able to 11: Corporate Ecosystemsresearch and buy products and services online as we need them - on demand. 12: Disintermediation The availability of your product or service influences your competitive edge in 13: Transformationthe marketplace, along with your product quality, suitability, customer service,pricing and the overall experience you provide. For an online business, the time 14: Mass Customizationand cost of delivery are increasingly important success factors. 17: 1 to 1 MarketingWaiting Time is Measured in ‘Seconds’ 19: Physical Location Your off-line consumer or customer may be prepared to wait hours, days or 22: Trusted Brandsweeks to buy and get what they want, but for purchasing, accessing and takingdelivery of digital content online, waiting time is measured in seconds or minutes,and not days or weeks. If a customer is accessing digital content that can be delivered immediately,then the customer will increasingly expect it – instantly, on demand, in real time.If they have a choice of suppliers for the same or similar products, services orcontent, and you can’t deliver instantly, then they are just as likely to find anothersupplier who can. For physical products that need to be shipped, the timing and costs of shippingare key reasons for shopping carts being abandoned in the online purchase For purchasing, accessingprocess. Having products available 24.7 on Demand has trained customers to and taking delivery ofassume fast response times. Product shipping time needs to be measured in days, digital content online,not weeks or months. „waiting time‟ is measured Organizations who are suppliers of content, products and services need to be in seconds or minutes, andgeared up to meet this instant ‘Just In Time’, real time demand. Better still, if you not days or weeks.can anticipate that a new or existing customer is likely to demand a product,service or piece of content, and get it to them just before they ask for it, then youcan really make an impact. News sites, music sites, and learning or coaching sitesare doing this today.Users Even Demand FREE Products & Services To Be Provided 24.7 Whether customers are paying for something or not, they increasingly haveboth a desire and expectation that they will be able to access it online. Customers expect that free products and services they use will be availablewhen they want to use them. Facebook, Google, Twitter and YouTube are freeservices but customers expect and demand access to them 24.7. Paying for something to be available online gives the consumer a greater rightto access and the supplier a greater responsibility to provide, but the money is notthe defining business issue. A consumer who finds a free service to be unavailablewill quickly seek out more reliable alternatives. © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 15 of 75
  15. 15. There is a widely held expectation by many Internet users that everything on the Net is ‘FREE’, or should be free. We tend to expect this, in a similar way to how we may expect shop assistants to freely answer the questions we ask them in their shops. There is generally very little differential cost in providing online products and automated services at scale to local or global markets, but the cost of providing high levels of personalized service can seldom be scaled and becomes a large overhead for online businesses. Economies of structure’ matter! When the question is a commonly asked question and the answer is standard, there may not be an incremental cost every time the business needs to provide the standard answer, but whenever a personalized response is needed, there is a cost, and the more personalized the response the higher the cost – in the absence of automated systems. Learning to pay for information online including personalized responses and advice is still very much a work in progress. With so much information available through a Google search, many people think they can find what they are lookingLearning to pay for for quickly and at no cost. They are often right, as long as they know what they areinformation online is still looking for, but it is also easy to waste time searching and not finding.very much a work inprogress. Trusted advisors are emerging in almost every field or market niche. These advisors cut through the information clutter and provide useful and valuable answers, guidance and advice, and we will increasingly be prepared to pay for some of this. The Internet being Always On has led to services on the Internet being Always Demandable. We increasingly judge how good a business is by its ability to not just let us buy products and services on demand, but prior to buying, to provide us with information we expect in our research and shopping phase. We expect – and now demand -highly responsive and personalized customer service that quickly, effectively and efficiently answers our queries and solves our problems. We already often expect it 24.7. And it’s just getting started! Questions To Ponder 1. What additional information, content, products, services or interactive processes do your customers want to access? 2. What would you expect to access or receive if you were your customer? 3. What do your customers want to get from you at times that suit them, but may not suit you? 4. If you can’t or don’t give your customers access to what they expect or want, who will? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 16 of 75
  16. 16. Trend 4: Increasingly Faster Speeds of Transactions Closely Related Trends  Actions and reactions at hyper speed 1: Moores Law  Instantaneous transactions become the norm 2: Internet Always On  Transactions include Information, Communication, Education, Production 3: 24.7 On-Demand and Trading (ICEPT) 5: Fast Wireless Networks As the Internet now allows for such high speed continual connectivity between 6: Smart Mobile Devicesdevices and people, it may be tempting to take the new power for these globalinstantaneous interactions for granted – but look back in time and the changing 8: Technical Connectivitypatterns emerge. 9: Personal Connectivity Two hundred years ago a boat coming from England to Australia may have 10: Communitiestaken six months to deliver an important message, and a further six months for a 11: Corporate Ecosystemsresponse to be provided to England. Just the two-way communication flow of the 12: Disintermediationtransaction took 12 months. Imagine if there was a further two-waycommunication flow process needed before action could be taken? 13: Transformation Fast forward to the 20th Century and two-way communication transactions 17: 1 to 1 Marketingwere happening by post, telegraph, phone, fax and then the Internet. Now, in the 18: Information Aggregationearly 21st Century, the capacity for instant transactions is the expected norm. 20: Low Cost Software The ICEPT Transaction model developed by Larry Quick outlines the different Solutionstypes of transactions that occur between people and organizations. Transactions 22: Trusted Brandsare either Information, Communication, Education, Production or Trading or 23: Peer Recommendationscombinations of these. (ICEPT). All are now done in hyper-speed, almostinstantaneously globally due to the use of the Internet. In the online world, it’s not just the transaction itself that is important. Theactions and reactions in the processes of the systems surrounding the transactionalso need to become virtually instantaneous. Processes such as searching andfinding what is needed, getting it and having support along the way all need tospeed up for the apparently instant transaction to be seamless, effective andvaluable. The actions and reactions in For the transactions to speed up, more and more processes in businesses will the processes of the systemsbe increasingly automated. Business will continue to get faster. surrounding the transaction also need to becomeQuestions To Ponder virtually instantaneous.1. How ready and well equipped is your business to provide instantaneous transactions? a. Information transactions? b. Communication transactions? c. Education transactions?, d. Production transactions and e. Trading transactions2. What instantaneous transactions are already being demanded or expected by your customers? What will be expected in the future?3. What would you expect if you were a customer?4. How good are the processes and systems that support your transactions? Are they instant? Can you rely on them? Do they scale? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 17 of 75
  17. 17. Trend 5: Increasingly Faster Wireless Networks  Enabling Local and Global MobilityClosely Related Trends  High Speed Mobility With High Speed Data1: Moores Law Gone are the days when we needed to connect to the Internet using a cable2: Internet Always On plugged into a fixed phone line. Now we don’t need the cable, or the phone line. We have wireless routers in our homes and offices allowing many users to connect3: 24.7 On-Demand to share a common ADSL, cable or fiber service. This is provided for free in many4: Transaction Speed coffee shops and bars.6: Smart Mobile Devices Wireless networks are flourishing throughout the world as Internet access is8: Technical Connectivity opened up for whole regions with base stations capable of handling high speed data being cheaper, faster and easier to install than fixed wired services. In19: Physical Location October 2010, mobile wireless broadband was even opened up in the busy but20: Low Cost Software previously inhospitable trek to Everest Base Camp in Nepal. Solutions Only a few years ago, connecting wirelessly at high speed meant being within radio range of a fixed and wired Internet connection. Now, mobile networks are for mobile users, and allow effective Internet data access speeds in moving vehicles such as trains, cars, buses and even airplanes. Mobile data connectivity can be fast, easy to use and is continually reducing in cost with more data being provided in more affordable phone and data plans - unless you get ripped off by over-using your data allowance. For business, we can be more productive and not tied to any specific location, but we’re increasingly being tied to our device. We can access content stored in the Internet cloud, send content to other mobile users, and automatically synchronize our phones with our main computer. The ability to stream video content to and from any devices anywhere anytime will become taken for granted. Streaming will be one-to-one, one-to-many, and many-to-many – such as with joint videoconferences with multiple participants. There are currently different systems rivaling to be the standards iin the 4G tomorrow. 4G is the fourth generation of cellular wireless standards, and is a successor to 3G and 2G standards. 4G systems will be totally based around Internet Protocol (IP) with data being transmitted in packets as it is on the Net. In time, 4G will provide a more secure solution with ultra-broadband (giga-bit speed) Internet access, IP telephony, gaming services, and streamed multimedia for users. According to Wikipedia, a major issue in 4G systems is to make the high bit rates available in a larger portion of the cell, especially to users in an exposed position in between several base stations. Mesh routing and other technologies are being developed to create pervasive and ultra-high speed networks, to allow seamless movement through the mesh. So what will come after 4G? Some sort of 5G of course! Always empowering and enabling. Always faster and even more useful. Questions To Ponder 1. How do you feel about using video phones? Do you want your clients to see you? Do you want to see them? 2. What capabilities and skill sets do you need to add within your organization or find externally to create great video content? 3. Is there a risk of transferring too much power over your life and business to telecommunication companies? And at what cost? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 18 of 75
  18. 18. Trend 6: Increasingly Smarter Mobile Devices  Smarter, faster, cheaper mobile devices Closely Related Trends  Smaller devices, larger capacity  “Whenever, however, whatever, wherever” 1: Moores Law Knowing Moore’s Law, it’s no surprise that the typical smart phone is now a 2: Internet Always Onfraction of the size and cost of an old-style personal computer, but with more 3: 24.7 On-Demandprocessing power and data storage capabilities. 4: Transaction Speed The first iPhone was only launched in January 2007, and it’s still early days in 5: Fast Wireless Networksthe world of smart mobile devices. The current market leader in the US is theBlackberry by RIM, with Apple’s iPhone second, and Google’s Android rapidly 7: Convergenceclosing the gap. Microsoft (MS) has just launched Windows Phone 7 with tight 8: Technical Connectivityintegration with MS products. 9: Personal Connectivity Blackberry or iPhone? Android or Phone 7? Apple devices and software 19: Physical Locationapplications apps are more integrated and controlled, are probably more secure,but are closed being just for Apple-made devices. The Android operating system 20: Low Cost Softwareand apps are more fragmented but open and can be used on different devices. SolutionsSecurity is critical, but open will probably win out, sooner or later. It looks like 24: Identity ControlAndroid phones will be the leaders during 2011. In just 3 years, Smartphone users have come to demand and expect always-onaccess, quick boot times; high levels of reliability; clear easy-to-read full colordisplay screens; plenty of programs and applications to run on their phones (andoften for free); and day long battery life in an attractive, thin, lightweight pocket-sized device. And all this is being provided, sometimes for very little cost. Apps are being developed enabling an already smart device to do moreand become even smarter and more valuable to us. Currently Apple appslead the way and are used on iPads, iPod Touch and the iPhones. Androidapps are quickly catching up, and there are different apps for MS phones. Amajor issue for app developers is choosing the right platform as creatingand maintaining complex software for different phones is problematic,especially when the app may be given away free. Smart phones are getting smarter. Our location is embedded into thedevice, and our device can be automatically traceable as we move. This can be Source: ClickZvaluable to us but also to marketers who want to provide an app and then sendlocation-based messages. The privacy issues should make us cautious. Drive near a bakery and you may get a message about freshly baked bread, stillhot from the oven. Go past the local coffee shop and you might get offered twocappuccinos for the price of one. Cleverer systems will tailor offerings to fit exactly Smarter, Faster, Cheaperwith your already known preferences – and give you more of what you like. More Mobile Devicesand more people are going to have faster and smarter mobile devices. You’ll beout of the office, but seldom out of contact – unless you turn off your phone or “Whenever, However,your battery goes flat! Whatever, Wherever”Questions To Ponder 1. How can you use smarter mobile devices to better serve your customers? 2. How will your mobile customers want to interact with you? 3. Do you quickly adopt and use new mobile devices as they are launched, or do you wait? Do you struggle to keep up? Do your customers adopt quickly , do they wait or do they struggle? How do you know? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 19 of 75
  19. 19. Trend 7: Increasing ConvergenceClosely Related Trends  The Internet & digital is not just about ‘computers’.1: Moores Law  More converging and blurring of devices, systems and content.2: Internet Always On  Web, TV, radio, phone, text, audio, video, 3D, Augmented Reality, Holography3: 24.7 On-Demand  Mobile interactive multimedia web6: Smart Mobile Devices New devices emerge and re-define the choices of how we can deliver, access8: Technical Connectivity and interact with online content. Increasingly, the devices, the content and the12: Disintermediation access and delivery processes are converging and being integrated.13: Transformation Convergence is happening all around us, so fast and so much we almost take it18: Information Aggregation for granted already. You can watch videos and movies on your computer or smart phone; make global or local telephone calls using Voice over IP (VoIP) with or without Skype; listen to previously local radio stations that now reach global online audiences; and access newspapers online that may have audio and video clips as part of their stories. Your mobile phone, iPad, computer, television and even your fridge can now be linked and any device can be used to control, access or display data stored on the other devices. Television programs have time-shifted and place-shifted and are now viewable online, with rich audio and video content no longer being constrained by the broadcast model. Content is now transmedia and mobile-enabled, and available to be consumed on different devices as and when needed. Video is the fastest growing segment of the content mix. In 2007, two years after its inception, You Tube consumed more bandwidth than the entire internet in 2000, and by 2009 YouTube traffic alone accounted for more than 10% of worldwide data consumption. In October 2010, YouTube’s owner Google said YouTube was serving two billion videos a week accompanied by advertising. Google has recently announced Google TV, and they claim this will allow users to type in what they want to watch, and Google will find it, seamlessly searching the content on the TV, the web and apps. Next is Augmented Reality (AR) which is gaining popularity thanks to the smarter mobile devices. Mobile AR apps use smart features of your smart phoneWorkSnug mobile AR app overlays live such as the in-built compass, accelerometer, GPS and camera to addvideo with peer reviews of workspacesso mobile workers can find the nearest geographically-relevant content to the live video being captured by the camera.and best places to connect and work in This provides a more information-rich experience based on where you are andmajor cities of the world. what your camera is viewing. Part of the future? It’s already here today.Source: WorkSnug.com Convergence has come a long way in the past 15 years, and like the Digital Age itself, it’s only just begun. Questions To Ponder 1. How can you use ongoing convergence to add value to your customers? 2. Do you need to consider creating a video as a marketing tool? Instead of just doing an ad for TV, do one for mobile phones and YouTube?Wikitude Drive mobile AR navigation appoverlays live video stream captured 3. Will your future customers expect videos rather than text-based informationthrough the phone’s camera with route such as product manuals? Have you considered Augmented Reality?suggestions and driving instructions.Source: Wikitude.org © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 20 of 75
  20. 20. Trend 8: More Technical Connectivity  Integration of networks, systems, applications, databases, devices, authorizations & access codes.  More things become electronic and almost anything electronic can be Closely Related Trends connected. 1: Moores Law  More reliance on the Cloud 2: Internet Always On Think of Technical Connectivity as the connectivity of things rather than 3: 24.7 On-Demandpeople. These things may be real and physical like a phone device or a computer 4: Transaction Speeddevice; or may be virtual and only exist inside a computer such as software ordatabases. Or they may be groups of the physical and the virtual such as content 5: Fast Wireless Networksresiding on the Internet or other computer networks. 6: Smart Mobile Devices Software as a Service (SaaS) is a growing area online. Many web-based 7: Convergencesoftware applications are now available for home users, small business users and 9: Personal Connectivitythe corporate market segments. Free or low cost access to web applications hasseen this area grow, with a wide range of different quality systems available. 11: Corporate Ecosystems(SaaS is discussed in more detail in Trend 20: Low Cost Software Solutions.) 12: Disintermediation Integration is becoming increasingly easier with open systems and common 17: 1 to 1 Marketingprotocols and database formats. To be successful, technical integration must be 18: Information Aggregationreliable, easy, scalable and secure. Much of the security for integration revolvesaround the security of identity. 20: Low Cost Software SolutionsConnected Identities Increasingly, devices and applications will have our identity embedded in them 24: Identity Controlfor automated recognition and access. This can obviously present risks if thedevice is stolen. Different websites are now sharing Identity Access Management systems toallow users to use one identity such as an Open ID, Facebook or Google Gmailidentity to access different third party sites without having to create new identitieson these sites. The connected Identity Access Management systems utilize theuser’s unique user name and password combination to authenticate and then begranted or denied access rights to data and resources on the third party site. More things will become electronic and For Facebook and Google, it’s a strategy to dominate and own the user’s almost anythingbehavioral as well as personal information. From the customer’s perspective, the electronic can beshared or common Identity Access Management systems allow for users to enjoy a connected.Single Sign On (SSO) which provides a faster, easier and more seamless experienceas users move between different sites. Sharing Identity Access Managementsystems is already raising privacy issues with greater risks from the real andgrowing issue of identity theft.Connecting to “The Cloud” Much of the technical connectivity happens outside of the view of typicalInternet users. The Internet has long been referred to as a Cloud, and the conceptof Cloud computing has grown in recent years. Many so-called Cloud- In the Cloud computing world, software applications and data storage is based firms aremanaged on a network of inter-connected servers that are location in different imposters, getting ondata centers throughout the world. The benefits offered by good Cloud computing the „Cloud computingfirms are a well-managed, secure, scalable and often low-cost technical bandwagon‟environment with lower risks from having increased redundancy from multipleservers in multiple locations. Many so-called Cloud-based firms are in fact imposters, simply hosting theirservers in a single location in a data centre. They are getting on the Cloud © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide wwwDigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 21 of 75
  21. 21. computing bandwagon, presenting themselves as providing a Cloud-based service, however their customers miss the scale-increasing and risk-reducing benefits from putting their data and applications into the Cloud. The Cloud computing industry has been evolving quickly, partially driven by reduced IT spending during the Global Financial Crisis years of 2007 to 2009,Not all cloud computing during which time many more services developed to be able to be presented asproviders are the same, enterprise-ready. Software developers have long been known for announcing orand the ignorance or marketing products before they have been developed, and some Cloud computingapathy of customers announcements are adding new meanings to the term ‘vaporware’!looking for a cheapprovider will increasingly Cloud computing has also been driven by consumers who use cloud-basedexpose them to risks and applications on smart mobile devices and now expect and demand the same easy-threats. to-use functionality, connectivity and efficiencies when at work. One premise of Cloud computing is that users do not know or generally even care what equipment or resources they are connecting to or where these systems are physically located. The very name ‘Cloud’ makes it appear soft, fluffy, amorphous, scalable, omnipresent and even fun, but in reality your data is still being managed and stored somewhere, and is potentially accessible to unauthorized intruders. Your applications, your data and the information you hold on your customers and others needs to be protected and secured. Risks In The Cloud A new and often unforeseen risk is in the retrieval of your data if and when you wish to terminate the use of an SaaS or Cloud computing provider. Many online SaaS and Cloud services are easy to sign up to, and even easy to cancel, but can be difficult and sometimes impossible to retrieve your data when you have terminated the service. This is commercially driven and intentional on the part of the provider, but often will not be disclosed to you anywhere but in the extremely fine print, which you may never have read. To date, many concerns about Cloud computing security issues have beenIf your data and your reducing as enterprises realize that the risk profiles of the external cloudcustomers‟ data is stored environment market leader businesses are not greatly different to the risk profilesomewhere in a cloud, you of their own internal IT environment, and good Cloud operators are often better.want to be very careful it Both environments need very well-managed security policies, processes anddoes not become a storm systems and external suppliers for whom this is core business activity have greatercloud! time, skills and resources to focus on their security. Not all cloud computing providers are the same, and the ignorance or apathy of customers looking for a cheap provider will increasingly expose them to risks and threats. If you are running your business with your data and your customers’ data stored somewhere in a cloud, you want to be very careful it does not become a storm cloud! Questions To Ponder 1. How could you add value to your customers by allowing them to connect more directly with you? What could you then do better, faster, stronger or cheaper ? 2. Do you put your information into the Cloud or not? What information can and cannot go into the Cloud? 3. Do your clients want their data put into the Cloud? What is the risk if you lose the data? © Copyright Richard Keeves 2010-11 (Permission Granted for Free Distribution) Digital TrendCatcher Guide www.DigitalTrendCatchers.com Page 22 of 75

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